Serie A · Italy

AtalantavSassuolo

Sunday 23 August at 19:45Gewiss Stadiumexpected lineup

Referee

Valerio Crezzini

10 matches on record — under 15, so the model falls back toward the league mean

Fouls per game

26.8

+16% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formGianluca Gaetano over 0.5 tackles: 10/10 of his last 10, 14 in a row
Last 20: 15/20 · 5/5 at home · strip 1 2 2 1 4 1 2 2 1 1 · market 77% · best 1.33 (10Bet) · bet365 1.29
formArmand Laurienté over 0.5 tackles: 9/10 of his last 10, 8 in a row
Last 20: 13/20 · 4/5 away · strip 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 · market 71% · best 1.53 (Bet365) · bet365 1.53
formKieron Bowie over 1.5 shots: 9/10 of his last 10, 4 in a row
Last 20: 11/14 · 5/5 away · strip 4 3 3 4 0 3 4 2 2 4 · market 69% · best 1.60 (Ladbrokes) · bet365 1.44
formKieron Bowie over 1.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10, 6 in a row
Last 20: 11/14 · 5/5 away · strip 2 3 2 3 3 3 1 3 1 3 · market 65% · best 1.80 (Ladbrokes) · bet365 1.61
formKieron Bowie over 0.5 shots on target: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 8/14 · 5/5 away · strip 2 1 0 2 0 2 1 1 1 1 · market 60% · best 2.00 (LiveScoreBet) · bet365 1.67
formKristian Thorstvedt over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10, 7 in a row
Last 20: 11/20 · 4/5 away · strip 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 0 2 0 · market 80% · best 1.50 (Bet365) · bet365 1.50
formKristian Thorstvedt over 0.5 shots: 9/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 17/20 · 4/5 away · strip 0 1 1 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 · market 80% · best 1.40 (Coral) · bet365 1.14
formMarten de Roon over 0.5 fouls: 7/10 of his last 10, 6 in a row
Last 20: 16/20 · 3/4 at home · strip 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 · market 79% · best 1.50 (Ladbrokes) · bet365 1.25

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 7 live calls

Sebastian Walukiewiczover 2.50 Tackles3.75 at bet365 · fair 2.62+43.1%
Andrea Pinamontiover 0.50 Tackles3.00 at bet365 · fair 2.62+14.5%
Armand Laurientéover 1.50 Fouls2.63 at bet365 · fair 2.38+10.3%
Armand Laurientéover 0.50 Tackles1.53 at bet365 · fair 1.40+9.5%
Charles De Ketelaereover 1.50 Shots on target3.25 at bet365 · fair 3.00+8.3%
Giorgio Scalviniover 0.50 Fouls1.25 at bet365 · fair 1.17+6.8%
Andrea Pinamontiover 1.50 Shots1.44 at bet365 · fair 1.36+6.2%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls47 playersHighest: Nikola Krstović, 1.62 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nikola KrstovićFWD	Atalanta	1.88	74provisional	1.62	47%	70	022% 131% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Kieron BowieFWD	—	1.70	84provisional	1.62	48%	14	020% 132% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Isak HienDEF	Atalanta	1.42	77provisional	1.27	36%	58	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Honest AhanorDEF	Atalanta	1.51	65provisional	1.18	33%	28	032% 135% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sead KolasinacDEF	Atalanta	1.49	65provisional	1.16	32%	42	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marten de RoonMID	Atalanta	1.22	83provisional	1.15	32%	70	032% 136% 221% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Giorgio ScalviniDEF	Atalanta	1.32	73provisional	1.13	31%	30	033% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
ÉdersonMID	Atalanta	1.18	79provisional	1.07	29%	67	035% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Armand LaurientéFWD	Sassuolo	1.24	72provisional	1.05	28%	38	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Gianluca ScamaccaFWD	Atalanta	1.58	51provisional	1.04	28%	25	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Shots47 playersHighest: Nikola Krstović, 3.98 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nikola KrstovićFWD	Atalanta	4.71	74provisional	3.98	85%	70	04% 110% 215% 317% 416% 513% 6+24%
Gianluca ScamaccaFWD	Atalanta	3.79	51provisional	2.37	62%	25	015% 123% 222% 316% 411% 57% 6+7%
Giacomo RaspadoriFWD	Atalanta	3.32	57provisional	2.24	58%	51	019% 123% 220% 315% 410% 56% 6+6%
Kieron BowieFWD	—	1.97	84provisional	1.86	54%	14	017% 129% 226% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Kamaldeen SulemanaFWD	Atalanta	2.68	47provisional	1.56	42%	51	028% 129% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Charles De KetelaereMID	Atalanta	2.19	58provisional	1.52	43%	67	027% 131% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Armand LaurientéFWD	Sassuolo	1.81	72provisional	1.51	43%	38	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Andrea PinamontiFWD	Sassuolo	1.89	66provisional	1.44	41%	72	028% 131% 221% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lazar SamardžićMID	Atalanta	2.64	42provisional	1.40	38%	57	031% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
ÉdersonMID	Atalanta	1.55	79provisional	1.39	40%	67	027% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Shots on target44 playersHighest: Nikola Krstović, 1.39 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Nikola KrstovićFWD	Atalanta	1.64	74provisional	1.39	72%	70	028% 132% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Gianluca ScamaccaFWD	Atalanta	1.49	51provisional	0.93	57%	25	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Giacomo RaspadoriFWD	Atalanta	1.26	57provisional	0.85	53%	51	047% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kieron BowieFWD	—	0.72	84provisional	0.68	49%	14	051% 134% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Kamaldeen SulemanaFWD	Atalanta	1.05	47provisional	0.61	43%	51	057% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Charles De KetelaereMID	Atalanta	0.84	58provisional	0.58	42%	67	058% 130% 29% 32% 4+1%
Andrea PinamontiFWD	Sassuolo	0.75	66provisional	0.57	42%	72	058% 130% 29% 32% 4+1%
Armand LaurientéFWD	Sassuolo	0.68	72provisional	0.57	42%	38	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Domenico BerardiFWD	Sassuolo	0.63	77provisional	0.56	42%	26	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Lazar SamardžićMID	Atalanta	0.99	42provisional	0.53	39%	57	061% 128% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
ÉdersonMID	Atalanta	0.47	79provisional	0.42	34%	67	066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Benja DomínguezFWD	—	0.62	47provisional	0.36	29%	39	071% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Gianluca GaetanoMID	—	0.50	58provisional	0.35	29%	61	071% 123% 25% 3+1%
Davide ZappacostaMID	Atalanta	0.44	64provisional	0.33	28%	65	072% 123% 24% 3+1%
Kristian ThorstvedtMID	Sassuolo	0.33	79provisional	0.30	26%	32	074% 122% 23% 3+0%
Nicola ZalewskiMID	Atalanta	0.42	59provisional	0.30	25%	56	075% 121% 24% 3+0%
Mario PašalićMID	Atalanta	0.44	55provisional	0.29	24%	67	076% 120% 23% 3+1%
Cristian VolpatoMID	Sassuolo	0.53	36provisional	0.25	21%	24	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Giorgio ScalviniDEF	Atalanta	0.27	73provisional	0.23	20%	30	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Ismaël KonéMID	Sassuolo	0.24	80provisional	0.22	19%	35	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Raoul BellanovaMID	Atalanta	0.30	60provisional	0.21	19%	59	081% 116% 22% 3+0%
Honest AhanorDEF	Atalanta	0.27	65provisional	0.21	18%	28	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Nicholas PieriniFWD	Sassuolo	0.74	18provisional	0.20	18%	13	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Vasilije AdžićMID	—	0.73	15provisional	0.17	15%	16	085% 114% 21% 3+0%
Ibrahim SulemanaMID	Atalanta	0.37	33provisional	0.16	14%	28	086% 113% 21% 3+0%
Marten de RoonMID	Atalanta	0.17	83provisional	0.16	15%	70	085% 113% 2+1%
Luca MoroFWD	Sassuolo	0.65	15provisional	0.16	14%	14	086% 113% 21% 3+0%
Lorenzo BernasconiMID	Atalanta	0.21	61provisional	0.15	14%	23	086% 113% 2+1%
Berat DjimsitiDEF	Atalanta	0.17	66provisional	0.13	12%	68	088% 111% 2+1%
Isak HienDEF	Atalanta	0.15	77provisional	0.13	12%	58	088% 111% 2+1%
Thomas KristensenDEF	—	0.14	83provisional	0.13	12%	52	088% 111% 2+1%
Rafa ObradorDEF	—	0.15	73provisional	0.13	12%	16	088% 111% 2+1%
Josh DoigDEF	Sassuolo	0.16	71provisional	0.13	12%	30	088% 111% 2+1%
Luca LipaniMID	Sassuolo	0.21	45provisional	0.12	11%	24	089% 110% 2+1%
Ulisses GarciaDEF	Sassuolo	0.13	75provisional	0.11	11%	13	089% 110% 2+1%
Odilon KossounouDEF	Atalanta	0.19	43provisional	0.10	10%	37	090% 19% 2+1%
Woyo CoulibalyDEF	Sassuolo	0.12	67provisional	0.10	9%	38	091% 19% 2+1%
Nemanja MatićMID	Sassuolo	0.12	68provisional	0.10	9%	34	091% 19% 2+1%
Sead KolasinacDEF	Atalanta	0.11	65provisional	0.08	8%	42	092% 17% 2+0%
Fali CandéDEF	Sassuolo	0.10	62provisional	0.08	7%	29	093% 17% 2+0%
Aster VranckxMID	Sassuolo	0.13	44provisional	0.07	7%	30	093% 17% 2+0%
Edoardo IannoniMID	Sassuolo	0.23	17provisional	0.06	6%	15	094% 15% 2+0%
Sebastian WalukiewiczDEF	Sassuolo	0.06	76provisional	0.06	5%	65	095% 15% 2+0%
Jay IdzesDEF	Sassuolo	0.06	88provisional	0.06	5%	70	095% 15% 2+0%

All 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won47 playersHighest: Kristian Thorstvedt, 1.55 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kristian ThorstvedtMID	Sassuolo	1.73	79provisional	1.55	45%	32	024% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Nicola ZalewskiMID	Atalanta	2.13	59provisional	1.49	43%	56	026% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kieron BowieFWD	—	1.54	84provisional	1.45	42%	14	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+1%
ÉdersonMID	Atalanta	1.56	79provisional	1.39	40%	67	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Ismaël KonéMID	Sassuolo	1.53	80provisional	1.38	40%	35	027% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Armand LaurientéFWD	Sassuolo	1.60	72provisional	1.32	38%	38	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Benja DomínguezFWD	—	2.23	47provisional	1.26	34%	39	036% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Domenico BerardiFWD	Sassuolo	1.41	77provisional	1.23	35%	26	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Honest AhanorDEF	Atalanta	1.60	65provisional	1.20	34%	28	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nikola KrstovićFWD	Atalanta	1.31	74provisional	1.10	30%	70	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Arijanet Murić, 3.71 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Arijanet MurićGK	Sassuolo	3.74	89provisional	3.71	68%	50	04% 111% 217% 319% 417% 513% 6+19%
Stefano TuratiGK	Sassuolo	3.33	88provisional	3.27	61%	36	05% 114% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13%
Marco CarnesecchiGK	Atalanta	2.56	89provisional	2.54	45%	71	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.