Serie A · Italy

VeneziavLecce

Sunday 23 August at 17:30Stadio Pierluigi Penzolineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls44 playersHighest: Santiago Pierotti, 1.68 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	2.41	63provisional	1.68	48%	59	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Alessio ZerbinMID	Venezianow at Frosinone	1.75	84provisional	1.65	48%	17	022% 130% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Enrique Pérez MuñozMID	Venezia	2.10	70provisional	1.63	47%	13	023% 129% 223% 314% 46% 53% 6+1%
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID	Venezianow at Parma	1.51	82provisional	1.38	40%	33	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jay IdzesDEF	Venezia	1.37	89provisional	1.36	39%	35	026% 135% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Gaetano Pio OristanioMID	Venezianow at Torino	1.90	63provisional	1.33	38%	32	029% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Fali CandéDEF	Venezia	1.31	90provisional	1.31	38%	17	027% 135% 223% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.28	50provisional	1.28	36%	36	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Joseph Alfred DuncanMID	Venezia	1.90	60provisional	1.26	36%	12	036% 128% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Balthazar PierretMID	Lecce	2.08	53provisional	1.22	34%	25	035% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%

10 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 44 → 5 of the 44 have since left the club — the squad is built from who has played for these teams, not from who is registered today, so they are shown rather than quietly dropped.

Tackles44 playersHighest: Ylber Ramadani, 2.27 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	2.68	76provisional	2.27	61%	61	016% 123% 222% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
Alessio ZerbinMID	Venezianow at Frosinone	2.41	84provisional	2.26	62%	17	015% 123% 223% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
Danilo Filipe Melo VeigaDEF	Lecce	2.88	69provisional	2.21	57%	39	021% 123% 219% 315% 410% 56% 6+7%
Enrique Pérez MuñozMID	Venezia	2.73	70provisional	2.13	57%	13	018% 124% 222% 316% 410% 55% 6+5%
Antonino GalloDEF	Lecce	2.02	84provisional	1.88	53%	66	019% 128% 224% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Antonio CandelaDEF	Venezia	2.29	72provisional	1.83	51%	13	022% 127% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	2.63	63provisional	1.83	50%	59	023% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho OliveiraDEF	Lecce	1.81	85provisional	1.71	49%	37	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	2.70	56provisional	1.69	46%	13	028% 126% 219% 312% 47% 54% 6+3%
Balthazar PierretMID	Lecce	2.79	53provisional	1.64	44%	25	028% 128% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+3%
Mikael Egill EllertssonMID	Venezia	2.08	69provisional	1.60	45%	30	026% 129% 221% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Michael SvobodaDEF	Venezianow at Brighton & Hove Albion	1.71	82provisional	1.56	44%	15	025% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Joël Marcel SchingtienneDEF	Venezia	1.98	70provisional	1.54	43%	14	029% 129% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.77	76provisional	1.49	42%	67	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Fali CandéDEF	Venezia	1.46	90provisional	1.46	42%	17	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gianluca BusioMID	Venezia	1.69	77provisional	1.44	40%	31	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID	Venezianow at Parma	1.56	82provisional	1.42	40%	33	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
K. GasparDEF	Lecce	1.47	85provisional	1.38	39%	44	029% 132% 221% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	1.52	81provisional	1.36	38%	19	030% 132% 221% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	2.26	54provisional	1.35	37%	21	033% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jay IdzesDEF	Venezia	1.32	89provisional	1.31	37%	35	029% 134% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Francesco ZampanoMID	Venezia	1.73	68provisional	1.31	36%	19	034% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Marin SverkoDEF	Venezia	1.63	70provisional	1.27	35%	13	035% 130% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ridgeciano HapsDEF	Venezia	2.06	55provisional	1.25	34%	17	037% 130% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Joseph Alfred DuncanMID	Venezia	1.82	60provisional	1.21	34%	12	038% 128% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Giorgio AltareDEF	Venezia	1.57	63provisional	1.09	29%	9	039% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	1.72	50provisional	0.96	25%	36	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gaby JeanDEF	Lecce	1.37	61provisional	0.92	24%	17	047% 129% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mohamed KabaMID	Lecce	2.28	36provisional	0.91	22%	16	047% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%
Magnus AndersenMID	Venezia	1.64	49provisional	0.90	23%	7	048% 128% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Corrie NdabaDEF	Lecce	1.90	39provisional	0.82	21%	7	053% 126% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Issa DoumbiaMID	Venezia	1.63	39provisional	0.71	17%	11	056% 127% 211% 34% 42% 50% 6+0%
Omri GandelmanMID	Lecce	1.19	51provisional	0.68	16%	15	054% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Gaetano Pio OristanioMID	Venezianow at Torino	0.89	63provisional	0.63	14%	32	056% 131% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’driFWD	Lecce	2.52	22provisional	0.60	13%	12	057% 130% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Nikola ŠtulićFWD	Lecce	0.79	50provisional	0.44	8%	24	067% 125% 27% 31% 4+0%
John Yeboah ZamoraFWD	Venezia	0.81	37provisional	0.33	6%	12	074% 120% 25% 31% 4+0%
D. FilaFWD	Venezia	0.61	50provisional	0.33	5%	7	073% 122% 24% 31% 4+0%
Mirko MarićFWD	Venezia	0.76	35provisional	0.30	5%	5	076% 118% 24% 31% 4+0%
Joel PohjanpaloFWD	Venezia	0.32	81provisional	0.29	4%	19	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Christian GytkjærFWD	Venezia	0.68	26provisional	0.20	3%	7	083% 114% 22% 3+0%
Wladimiro FalconeGK	Lecce	0.03	90provisional	0.03	—	76	097% 1+3%
Ionuț Andrei RaduGK	Venezianow at Celta de Vigo	0.01	90provisional	0.01	—	15	099% 1+1%
Filip StankovicGK	Venezia	0.01	86provisional	0.01	—	15	099% 1+1%

All 44 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥ 5 of the 44 have since left the club — the squad is built from who has played for these teams, not from who is registered today, so they are shown rather than quietly dropped.

Shots44 playersHighest: Joel Pohjanpalo, 2.36 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Joel PohjanpaloFWD	Venezia	2.64	81provisional	2.36	66%	19	012% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID	Venezianow at Parma	1.70	82provisional	1.55	45%	33	024% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Gaetano Pio OristanioMID	Venezianow at Torino	2.04	63provisional	1.43	41%	32	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
D. FilaFWD	Venezia	2.55	50provisional	1.40	39%	7	032% 129% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	2.15	54provisional	1.29	36%	21	033% 131% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
John Yeboah ZamoraFWD	Venezia	3.07	37provisional	1.27	33%	12	038% 130% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+2%
Gianluca BusioMID	Venezia	1.47	77provisional	1.25	35%	31	032% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.22	50provisional	1.24	34%	36	033% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Mirko MarićFWD	Venezia	3.05	35provisional	1.20	31%	5	043% 126% 214% 38% 45% 52% 6+2%
Nikola ŠtulićFWD	Lecce	1.93	50provisional	1.08	29%	24	040% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

Fouls won44 playersHighest: Gaetano Pio Oristanio, 2.01 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Gaetano Pio OristanioMID	Venezianow at Torino	2.87	63provisional	2.01	56%	32	018% 126% 223% 316% 49% 55% 6+3%
Alessio ZerbinMID	Venezianow at Frosinone	1.80	84provisional	1.69	49%	17	022% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.86	50provisional	1.60	45%	36	026% 130% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.68	76provisional	1.41	40%	67	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gianluca BusioMID	Venezia	1.64	77provisional	1.39	40%	31	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Mikael Egill EllertssonMID	Venezia	1.65	69provisional	1.26	35%	30	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Enrique Pérez MuñozMID	Venezia	1.46	70provisional	1.14	31%	13	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo VeigaDEF	Lecce	1.45	69provisional	1.12	31%	39	038% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Fali CandéDEF	Venezia	1.11	90provisional	1.11	30%	17	034% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID	Venezianow at Parma	1.22	82provisional	1.11	30%	33	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%

Cards44 playersHighest: Enrique Pérez Muñoz, 0.22 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Enrique Pérez MuñozMID	Venezia	0.28	70provisional	0.22	19%	13	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Alessio ZerbinMID	Venezianow at Frosinone	0.23	84provisional	0.21	19%	17	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Fali CandéDEF	Venezia	0.21	90provisional	0.21	19%	17	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo VeigaDEF	Lecce	0.25	69provisional	0.19	17%	39	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Jay IdzesDEF	Venezia	0.18	89provisional	0.18	17%	35	083% 115% 2+1%
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID	Venezianow at Parma	0.20	82provisional	0.18	16%	33	084% 115% 2+1%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	0.20	76provisional	0.17	16%	61	084% 114% 2+1%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	0.31	50provisional	0.17	16%	36	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	0.19	81provisional	0.17	16%	19	084% 114% 2+1%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho OliveiraDEF	Lecce	0.16	85provisional	0.16	14%	37	086% 113% 2+1%

Saves3 playersHighest: Wladimiro Falcone, 3.20 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Wladimiro FalconeGK	Lecce	3.20	90provisional	3.20	59%	76	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13%
Filip StankovicGK	Venezia	2.74	86provisional	2.60	47%	15	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%
Ionuț Andrei RaduGK	Venezianow at Celta de Vigo	2.46	90provisional	2.46	43%	15	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+5%

1 of the 3 have since left the club — the squad is built from who has played for these teams, not from who is registered today, so they are shown rather than quietly dropped.

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.