Championship · England

Preston North EndvBristol City

Tuesday 1 September at 19:45Deepdalelineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls44 playersHighest: Alistair McCann, 1.01 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.20
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Emil Riis Jakobsen
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.31
041%
134%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Sam Morsy
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.29
042%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Milutin Osmajić
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.35
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Adam Randell
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
0.97
043%
135%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Jason Knight
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
0.92
043%
135%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Scott Twine
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.12
045%
133%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Sinclair Armstrong
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.86
048%
131%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.48
048%
130%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.44
048%
130%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Ross McCrorie
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.04
046%
134%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Liam Lindsay
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.03
050%
130%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Michael Smith
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.81
054%
126%
211%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Andrew Hughes
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.84
047%
134%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Joe Williams
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.26
051%
130%
213%
35%
41%
5+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.00
049%
132%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Tomi Horvat
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.21
051%
129%
213%
35%
41%
5+0%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.32
051%
131%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Robbie Brady
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.31
052%
130%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Yu Hirakawa
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.82
054%
128%
211%
34%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	1.20	76provisional	1.01	27%	55	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Emil Riis JakobsenFWD	Bristol City	1.31	66provisional	0.97	25%	44	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Sam MorsyMID	Bristol City	1.29	65provisional	0.93	24%	18	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Milutin OsmajićFWD	Preston North End	1.35	60provisional	0.90	23%	62	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adam RandellMID	Bristol City	0.97	83provisional	0.89	22%	44	043% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Jason KnightMID	Bristol City	0.92	87provisional	0.88	22%	82	043% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	1.12	68provisional	0.85	21%	81	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Sinclair ArmstrongFWD	Bristol City	1.86	41provisional	0.85	21%	78	048% 131% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-JensenMID	Preston North End	1.48	51provisional	0.84	21%	56	048% 130% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	1.44	52provisional	0.83	21%	11	048% 130% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ross McCrorieDEF	Bristol City	1.04	71provisional	0.81	20%	64	046% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Liam LindsayDEF	Preston North End	1.03	69provisional	0.79	20%	61	050% 130% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Michael SmithFWD	Preston North End	1.81	39provisional	0.79	20%	37	054% 126% 211% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Andrew HughesDEF	Preston North End	0.84	84provisional	0.78	19%	78	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Joe WilliamsMID	Bristol City	1.26	55provisional	0.78	20%	27	051% 130% 213% 35% 41% 5+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	1.00	69provisional	0.77	19%	45	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Tomi HorvatMID	Bristol City	1.21	57provisional	0.77	20%	15	051% 129% 213% 35% 41% 5+0%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	1.32	52provisional	0.75	18%	20	051% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Robbie BradyMID	Preston North End	1.31	51provisional	0.74	18%	34	052% 130% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Yu HirakawaFWD	Bristol City	1.82	36provisional	0.74	18%	62	054% 128% 211% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles44 playersHighest: Alistair McCann, 1.99 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.99
O 1.5
57%
Model /90
2.36
018%
125%
224%
317%
410%
54%
6+2%
George Tanner
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.62
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
2.08
025%
128%
222%
314%
47%
53%
6+1%
Adam Randell
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.52
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.66
023%
133%
225%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Robbie Brady
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.49
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
2.64
030%
129%
219%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Jason Knight
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.44
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.50
025%
133%
224%
312%
44%
51%
6+0%
Tomi Horvat
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.44
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.27
033%
126%
220%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Max Bird
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.93
027%
131%
222%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.45
031%
129%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Sam Morsy
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.41
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.95
027%
132%
222%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Andrew Hughes
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.49
026%
133%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.78
030%
131%
222%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Scott Twine
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.81
028%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Ross McCrorie
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.71
028%
133%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Odeluga Offiah
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.79
033%
129%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Noah Eile
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.40
030%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Zak Vyner
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.33
027%
135%
223%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos Neto
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.55
033%
132%
221%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Robert Atkinson
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.49
030%
135%
222%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Joe Williams
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.22
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.99
036%
129%
219%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Jordan Storey
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.22
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.27
030%
136%
222%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	2.36	76provisional	1.99	57%	55	018% 125% 224% 317% 410% 54% 6+2%
George TannerDEF	Bristol City	2.08	70provisional	1.62	47%	67	025% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Adam RandellMID	Bristol City	1.66	83provisional	1.52	45%	44	023% 133% 225% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Robbie BradyMID	Preston North End	2.64	51provisional	1.49	41%	34	030% 129% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Jason KnightMID	Bristol City	1.50	87provisional	1.44	42%	82	025% 133% 224% 312% 44% 51% 6+0%
Tomi HorvatMID	Bristol City	2.27	57provisional	1.44	42%	15	033% 126% 220% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Max BirdMID	Bristol City	1.93	67provisional	1.43	41%	63	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	2.45	52provisional	1.42	40%	11	031% 129% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sam MorsyMID	Bristol City	1.95	65provisional	1.41	41%	18	027% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Andrew HughesDEF	Preston North End	1.49	84provisional	1.38	40%	78	026% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	1.78	69provisional	1.37	40%	45	030% 131% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	1.81	68provisional	1.37	40%	81	028% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ross McCrorieDEF	Bristol City	1.71	71provisional	1.34	38%	64	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Odeluga OffiahDEF	Preston North End	1.79	67provisional	1.33	38%	42	033% 129% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Noah EileDEF	Bristol City	1.40	84provisional	1.31	38%	15	030% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Zak VynerDEF	Bristol City	1.33	89provisional	1.31	38%	75	027% 135% 223% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Bristol City	1.55	72provisional	1.24	35%	38	033% 132% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Robert AtkinsonDEF	Bristol City	1.49	74provisional	1.23	35%	25	030% 135% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Joe WilliamsMID	Bristol City	1.99	55provisional	1.22	35%	27	036% 129% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jordan StoreyDEF	Preston North End	1.27	87provisional	1.22	34%	78	030% 136% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots44 playersHighest: Milutin Osmajić, 1.52 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Milutin Osmajić
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.52
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
2.29
031%
128%
219%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Emil Riis Jakobsen
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.95
029%
131%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.54
037%
131%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Scott Twine
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.49
037%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Will Keane
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
2.47
044%
127%
214%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Michael Smith
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.52
046%
127%
213%
37%
44%
52%
6+2%
Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.21
041%
132%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Sinclair Armstrong
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
2.22
043%
131%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Jason Knight
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
0.99
041%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Adam Randell
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.01
042%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.56
047%
130%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.43
047%
130%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Max Bird
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.15
047%
132%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Yu Hirakawa
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
2.04
052%
128%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Sam Morsy
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.12
048%
132%
214%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Tomi Horvat
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.25
051%
128%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Robbie Brady
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.41
051%
129%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.38
050%
130%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.30
053%
129%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Samuel John Bell
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
23
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
2.79
053%
131%
211%
33%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Milutin OsmajićFWD	Preston North End	2.29	60provisional	1.52	41%	62	031% 128% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Emil Riis JakobsenFWD	Bristol City	1.95	66provisional	1.43	40%	44	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	1.54	69provisional	1.18	33%	45	037% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	1.49	68provisional	1.13	31%	81	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Will KeaneFWD	Preston North End	2.47	41provisional	1.12	29%	29	044% 127% 214% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Michael SmithFWD	Preston North End	2.52	39provisional	1.10	27%	37	046% 127% 213% 37% 44% 52% 6+2%
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	1.21	76provisional	1.02	27%	55	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sinclair ArmstrongFWD	Bristol City	2.22	41provisional	1.01	26%	78	043% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Jason KnightMID	Bristol City	0.99	87provisional	0.95	25%	82	041% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Adam RandellMID	Bristol City	1.01	83provisional	0.93	24%	44	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	1.56	52provisional	0.90	23%	11	047% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID	Preston North End	1.43	56provisional	0.89	23%	54	047% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Max BirdMID	Bristol City	1.15	67provisional	0.85	21%	63	047% 132% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Yu HirakawaFWD	Bristol City	2.04	36provisional	0.82	20%	62	052% 128% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sam MorsyMID	Bristol City	1.12	65provisional	0.81	20%	18	048% 132% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Tomi HorvatMID	Bristol City	1.25	57provisional	0.80	21%	15	051% 128% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Robbie BradyMID	Preston North End	1.41	51provisional	0.80	20%	34	051% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	1.38	52provisional	0.79	19%	20	050% 130% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Mads Frøkjær-JensenMID	Preston North End	1.30	51provisional	0.74	18%	56	053% 129% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Samuel John BellFWD	Bristol City	2.79	23provisional	0.72	16%	35	053% 131% 211% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target44 playersHighest: Milutin Osmajić, 0.71 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Milutin Osmajić
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.71
O 0.5
46%
Model /90
1.07
054%
129%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Emil Riis Jakobsen
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.54
O 0.5
40%
Model /90
0.73
060%
129%
29%
32%
4+0%
Sinclair Armstrong
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.43
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.94
068%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Will Keane
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.40
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
0.88
070%
122%
26%
31%
4+0%
Scott Twine
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.36
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.48
071%
124%
25%
31%
4+0%
Michael Smith
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.79
074%
120%
25%
31%
4+0%
Samuel John Bell
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
23
Proj.
0.33
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
1.29
073%
122%
24%
31%
4+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.42
073%
122%
24%
3+1%
Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.30
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.36
075%
121%
24%
3+1%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.51
076%
120%
24%
3+1%
Adam Randell
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.30
076%
120%
23%
3+0%
Max Bird
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.35
078%
119%
23%
3+0%
Sam Morsy
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.36
078%
119%
23%
3+0%
Yu Hirakawa
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.63
079%
117%
23%
3+1%
Tomi Horvat
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.40
079%
118%
23%
3+0%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.42
079%
118%
23%
3+0%
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.38
080%
117%
23%
3+0%
Fally Mayulu
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
21
Proj.
0.23
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.97
080%
116%
23%
3+1%
Jason Knight
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.23
080%
117%
22%
3+0%
Robbie Brady
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.39
081%
116%
22%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Milutin OsmajićFWD	Preston North End	1.07	60provisional	0.71	46%	62	054% 129% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Emil Riis JakobsenFWD	Bristol City	0.73	66provisional	0.54	40%	44	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Sinclair ArmstrongFWD	Bristol City	0.94	41provisional	0.43	32%	78	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Will KeaneFWD	Preston North End	0.88	41provisional	0.40	30%	29	070% 122% 26% 31% 4+0%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	0.48	68provisional	0.36	29%	81	071% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Michael SmithFWD	Preston North End	0.79	39provisional	0.34	26%	37	074% 120% 25% 31% 4+0%
Samuel John BellFWD	Bristol City	1.29	23provisional	0.33	27%	35	073% 122% 24% 31% 4+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	0.42	69provisional	0.32	27%	45	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	0.36	76provisional	0.30	25%	55	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	0.51	52provisional	0.29	24%	11	076% 120% 24% 3+1%
Adam RandellMID	Bristol City	0.30	83provisional	0.27	24%	44	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Max BirdMID	Bristol City	0.35	67provisional	0.26	22%	63	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Sam MorsyMID	Bristol City	0.36	65provisional	0.26	22%	18	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Yu HirakawaFWD	Bristol City	0.63	36provisional	0.25	21%	62	079% 117% 23% 3+1%
Tomi HorvatMID	Bristol City	0.40	57provisional	0.25	21%	15	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	0.42	52provisional	0.24	21%	20	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID	Preston North End	0.38	56provisional	0.24	20%	54	080% 117% 23% 3+0%
Fally MayuluFWD	Bristol City	0.97	21provisional	0.23	20%	25	080% 116% 23% 3+1%
Jason KnightMID	Bristol City	0.23	87provisional	0.22	20%	82	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Robbie BradyMID	Preston North End	0.39	51provisional	0.22	19%	34	081% 116% 22% 3+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won44 playersHighest: Jason Knight, 1.21 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Jason Knight
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.26
033%
133%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Yu Hirakawa
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.75
043%
129%
214%
37%
44%
52%
6+1%
Adam Randell
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.15
038%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Scott Twine
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.32
041%
132%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Milutin Osmajić
FWD · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.35
047%
130%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Emil Riis Jakobsen
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.21
044%
133%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.01
047%
132%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Sam Morsy
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.16
047%
132%
214%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Joe Williams
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.31
051%
129%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.02
050%
131%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.36
051%
130%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.21
052%
129%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Sinclair Armstrong
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.60
053%
130%
211%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Odeluga Offiah
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
0.98
053%
129%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Tomi Horvat
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.12
054%
128%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Cameron Pring
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.71
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.97
053%
130%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Robert Dickie
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.71
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.76
052%
132%
212%
33%
41%
5+0%
Jordan Storey
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.70
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
0.72
052%
132%
212%
33%
41%
5+0%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.69
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
1.19
055%
129%
211%
34%
41%
5+0%
Max Bird
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.69
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
0.93
053%
131%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jason KnightMID	Bristol City	1.26	87provisional	1.21	34%	82	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Yu HirakawaFWD	Bristol City	2.75	36provisional	1.11	28%	62	043% 129% 214% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Adam RandellMID	Bristol City	1.15	83provisional	1.05	28%	44	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	1.32	68provisional	1.00	27%	81	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Milutin OsmajićFWD	Preston North End	1.35	60provisional	0.90	23%	62	047% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Emil Riis JakobsenFWD	Bristol City	1.21	66provisional	0.89	23%	44	044% 133% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	1.01	76provisional	0.85	22%	55	047% 132% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Sam MorsyMID	Bristol City	1.16	65provisional	0.84	21%	18	047% 132% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Joe WilliamsMID	Bristol City	1.31	55provisional	0.81	21%	27	051% 129% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	1.02	69provisional	0.79	20%	45	050% 131% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	1.36	52provisional	0.78	19%	20	051% 130% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID	Preston North End	1.21	56provisional	0.76	19%	54	052% 129% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Sinclair ArmstrongFWD	Bristol City	1.60	41provisional	0.73	17%	78	053% 130% 211% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Odeluga OffiahDEF	Preston North End	0.98	67provisional	0.73	18%	42	053% 129% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Tomi HorvatMID	Bristol City	1.12	57provisional	0.72	18%	15	054% 128% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Cameron PringDEF	Bristol City	0.97	66provisional	0.71	17%	58	053% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Robert DickieDEF	Bristol City	0.76	84provisional	0.71	17%	70	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jordan StoreyDEF	Preston North End	0.72	87provisional	0.70	16%	78	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	1.19	52provisional	0.69	16%	11	055% 129% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Max BirdMID	Bristol City	0.93	67provisional	0.69	16%	63	053% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards44 playersHighest: Sam Morsy, 0.15 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Sam Morsy
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.20
086%
112%
2+1%
Alistair McCann
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Cameron Pring
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.19
087%
112%
2+1%
Liam Lindsay
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.18
088%
111%
2+1%
Andrew Hughes
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Jordan Storey
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Ross McCrorie
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.17
088%
111%
2+1%
Noah Eile
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Jason Knight
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.13
088%
111%
2+1%
Adam Randell
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Robert Dickie
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.13
088%
111%
2+1%
Andrew Moran
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.21
089%
110%
2+1%
Scott Twine
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.16
089%
110%
2+1%
Jordan Thompson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.21
089%
110%
2+1%
Stefán Teitur Þórðarson
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.19
089%
110%
2+1%
Joe Williams
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.19
089%
110%
2+1%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos Neto
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.14
089%
110%
2+1%
Lewis Jack Gibson
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.12
089%
110%
2+1%
Alfie Devine
MID · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.15
089%
110%
2+1%
Zak Vyner
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.11
090%
110%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Sam MorsyMID	Bristol City	0.20	65provisional	0.15	14%	18	086% 112% 2+1%
Alistair McCannMID	Preston North End	0.17	76provisional	0.15	13%	55	087% 112% 2+1%
Cameron PringDEF	Bristol City	0.19	66provisional	0.14	13%	58	087% 112% 2+1%
Liam LindsayDEF	Preston North End	0.18	69provisional	0.13	12%	61	088% 111% 2+1%
Andrew HughesDEF	Preston North End	0.14	84provisional	0.13	12%	78	088% 111% 2+1%
Jordan StoreyDEF	Preston North End	0.14	87provisional	0.13	12%	78	088% 111% 2+1%
Ross McCrorieDEF	Bristol City	0.17	71provisional	0.13	12%	64	088% 111% 2+1%
Noah EileDEF	Bristol City	0.14	84provisional	0.13	12%	15	088% 111% 2+1%
Jason KnightMID	Bristol City	0.13	87provisional	0.13	12%	82	088% 111% 2+1%
Adam RandellMID	Bristol City	0.14	83provisional	0.13	12%	44	088% 111% 2+1%
Robert DickieDEF	Bristol City	0.13	84provisional	0.13	12%	70	088% 111% 2+1%
Andrew MoranMID	Preston North End	0.21	52provisional	0.12	11%	11	089% 110% 2+1%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	0.16	68provisional	0.12	11%	81	089% 110% 2+1%
Jordan ThompsonMID	Preston North End	0.21	52provisional	0.12	11%	20	089% 110% 2+1%
Stefán Teitur ÞórðarsonMID	Preston North End	0.19	56provisional	0.12	11%	54	089% 110% 2+1%
Joe WilliamsMID	Bristol City	0.19	55provisional	0.12	11%	27	089% 110% 2+1%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Bristol City	0.14	72provisional	0.12	11%	38	089% 110% 2+1%
Lewis Jack GibsonDEF	Preston North End	0.12	83provisional	0.12	11%	46	089% 110% 2+1%
Alfie DevineMID	Preston North End	0.15	69provisional	0.11	11%	45	089% 110% 2+1%
Zak VynerDEF	Bristol City	0.11	89provisional	0.11	10%	75	090% 110% 2+1%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves44 playersHighest: Max O’Leary, 2.71 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Max O’Leary
GK · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.71
O 2.5
49%
Model /90
2.71
09%
119%
223%
320%
414%
58%
6+8%
Daniel Iversen
GK · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
2.42
O 2.5
43%
Model /90
2.46
011%
122%
224%
319%
412%
56%
6+5%
David Cornell
GK · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
2.22
O 2.5
38%
Model /90
2.42
016%
123%
223%
317%
411%
56%
6+5%
Jordan Storey
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Zak Vyner
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jason Knight
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Noah Eile
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Adam Randell
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Robert Dickie
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Robert Atkinson
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos Neto
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ross McCrorie
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
George Tanner
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Scott Twine
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Cameron Pring
DEF · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Emil Riis Jakobsen
FWD · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Max Bird
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Sam Morsy
MID · Bristol City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Andrew Hughes
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lewis Jack Gibson
DEF · Preston North End
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Max O’LearyGK	Bristol City	2.71	90provisional	2.71	49%	53	09% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+8%
Daniel IversenGK	Preston North End	2.46	89provisional	2.42	43%	36	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
David CornellGK	Preston North End	2.42	83provisional	2.22	38%	18	016% 123% 223% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
Jordan StoreyDEF	Preston North End	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	78	0100% 1+0%
Zak VynerDEF	Bristol City	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	75	0100% 1+0%
Jason KnightMID	Bristol City	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	82	0100% 1+0%
Noah EileDEF	Bristol City	0.00	84provisional	0.00	—	15	0100% 1+0%
Adam RandellMID	Bristol City	0.00	83provisional	0.00	—	44	0100% 1+0%
Robert DickieDEF	Bristol City	0.00	84provisional	0.00	—	70	0100% 1+0%
Robert AtkinsonDEF	Bristol City	0.00	74provisional	0.00	—	25	0100% 1+0%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Bristol City	0.00	72provisional	0.00	—	38	0100% 1+0%
Ross McCrorieDEF	Bristol City	0.00	71provisional	0.00	—	64	0100% 1+0%
George TannerDEF	Bristol City	0.00	70provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	0.00	68provisional	0.00	—	81	0100% 1+0%
Cameron PringDEF	Bristol City	0.00	66provisional	0.00	—	58	0100% 1+0%
Emil Riis JakobsenFWD	Bristol City	0.00	66provisional	0.00	—	44	0100% 1+0%
Max BirdMID	Bristol City	0.00	67provisional	0.00	—	63	0100% 1+0%
Sam MorsyMID	Bristol City	0.00	65provisional	0.00	—	18	0100% 1+0%
Andrew HughesDEF	Preston North End	0.00	84provisional	0.00	—	78	0100% 1+0%
Lewis Jack GibsonDEF	Preston North End	0.00	83provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.