Championship · England

WrexhamvWatford

Saturday 22 August at 15:00Racecourse Groundlineups not announced

Referee

John Busby

48 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.4

-8% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formEdo Kayembe over 0.5 shots: 10/10 of his last 10, 18 in a row
Last 20: 19/20 · 5/5 away · strip 1 1 3 1 3 1 2 1 3 3 · market 80% · best 1.30 (Bet365) · bet365 1.30
opponentWatford concede 5.4 shots on target a game — 2nd most of 27 in the Championship
Over their last 10. Good news for Wrexham's shooters.
opponentWrexham concede 5.3 shots on target a game — 3rd most of 27 in the Championship
Over their last 10. Good news for Watford's shooters.
opponentWrexham concede 8.7 fouls a game — 25th most of 27 in the Championship
Over their last 10. A hard place to get fouls.
refereeJohn Busby: 21.4 fouls and 4.3 cards a game (league 22.3 / 3.4)
-0.9 fouls and +0.8 cards against his league's average over his last 20.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 8 live calls

George Thomasonover 1.50 Shots3.50 at bet365 · fair 3.05+14.8%
Luca Kjerrumgaardover 1.50 Shots on target4.33 at bet365 · fair 3.80+14.0%
Edo Kayembeover 1.50 Shots2.25 at bet365 · fair 2.02+11.1%
Marc Bolaover 0.50 Shots1.91 at bet365 · fair 1.73+10.3%
Callum Doyleover 0.50 Shots1.73 at bet365 · fair 1.57+10.0%
Sam Smithover 0.50 Shots on target1.36 at bet365 · fair 1.25+9.1%
Imrân Louzaover 2.50 Shots3.00 at bet365 · fair 2.80+7.1%
Josh Windassover 0.50 Shots on target1.50 at bet365 · fair 1.40+7.1%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls57 playersHighest: Imrân Louza, 1.24 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Imrân LouzaMID	Watford	1.30	84provisional	1.24	35%	75	030% 135% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jordan ZemuraDEF	Watford	1.43	59provisional	1.03	28%	41	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	1.57	51provisional	1.01	27%	53	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.35	62provisional	1.00	27%	70	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.08	79provisional	0.98	26%	26	039% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	1.23	67provisional	0.97	26%	16	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	1.21	68provisional	0.97	26%	25	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	1.36	57provisional	0.97	26%	27	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Martín PayeroMID	Watford	1.59	43provisional	0.92	23%	51	043% 134% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Edoardo BoveMID	Watford	1.40	51provisional	0.90	23%	24	044% 133% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 57 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 57 →

Shots57 playersHighest: Josh Windass, 2.38 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	2.90	71provisional	2.38	65%	85	013% 122% 223% 318% 412% 56% 6+5%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	2.67	62provisional	1.92	52%	70	022% 126% 221% 314% 49% 55% 6+4%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	2.89	46provisional	1.65	45%	46	026% 129% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	1.92	71provisional	1.57	45%	43	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	1.91	70provisional	1.55	45%	26	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Imrân LouzaMID	Watford	1.61	84provisional	1.52	44%	75	024% 132% 224% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	2.39	50provisional	1.46	40%	40	029% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	2.28	48provisional	1.33	36%	57	033% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	1.71	62provisional	1.24	34%	82	035% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Sam SmithFWD	Wrexham	2.40	42provisional	1.23	32%	41	040% 128% 216% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%

10 of 57 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 57 →

Shots on target57 playersHighest: Josh Windass, 0.90 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	1.10	71provisional	0.90	58%	85	042% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.03	62provisional	0.74	49%	70	051% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Luca KjerrumgaardFWD	Watford	0.90	71provisional	0.74	51%	43	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	0.69	70provisional	0.56	42%	26	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Sam SmithFWD	Wrexham	1.05	42provisional	0.54	37%	41	063% 126% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	0.85	50provisional	0.52	39%	40	061% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Rocco VataFWD	Watford	0.88	46provisional	0.51	37%	46	063% 127% 28% 32% 4+0%
Imrân LouzaMID	Watford	0.46	84provisional	0.44	35%	75	065% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	0.62	57provisional	0.42	33%	27	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Bailey CadamarteriFWD	Wrexham	0.72	47provisional	0.41	32%	32	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	0.66	48provisional	0.39	31%	57	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Vivaldo SemedoFWD	Watford	1.15	24provisional	0.38	30%	26	070% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD	Watford	0.62	51provisional	0.38	30%	53	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Tom InceFWD	Watford	0.82	31provisional	0.33	27%	59	073% 121% 24% 31% 4+0%
Iker BravoFWD	Watford	0.75	33provisional	0.32	26%	38	074% 121% 24% 31% 4+0%
Jay RodríguezFWD	Wrexham	1.03	23provisional	0.32	25%	27	075% 119% 24% 31% 4+0%
Edo KayembeMID	Watford	0.43	62provisional	0.31	26%	82	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	0.40	67provisional	0.31	26%	55	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Kwadwo BaahFWD	Watford	0.64	34provisional	0.29	24%	54	076% 120% 23% 3+1%
Callum DoyleDEF	Wrexham	0.28	86provisional	0.27	23%	75	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	0.32	67provisional	0.25	21%	16	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	0.27	79provisional	0.24	21%	35	079% 119% 22% 3+0%
Ben WhitemanMID	Wrexham	0.29	69provisional	0.23	20%	79	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Ryan LongmanMID	Wrexham	0.42	43provisional	0.22	19%	43	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	0.30	62provisional	0.22	19%	60	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Liberato CacaceDEF	Wrexham	0.25	73provisional	0.21	18%	45	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Martín PayeroMID	Watford	0.38	43provisional	0.21	18%	51	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Tom Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	0.27	64provisional	0.20	18%	28	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Marc BolaDEF	Watford	0.24	67provisional	0.18	16%	38	084% 115% 22% 3+0%
Danny ImrayDEF	Wrexham	0.20	75provisional	0.17	16%	17	084% 114% 2+1%
Jeremy NgakiaDEF	Watford	0.19	75provisional	0.16	15%	62	085% 114% 2+1%
Pierre DwomohMID	Watford	0.25	52provisional	0.16	14%	10	086% 113% 21% 3+0%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	0.20	64provisional	0.15	14%	41	086% 113% 2+1%
Edoardo BoveMID	Watford	0.24	51provisional	0.15	14%	24	086% 112% 2+1%
Max CleworthDEF	Wrexham	0.18	73provisional	0.15	13%	41	087% 112% 2+1%
Matty JamesMID	Wrexham	0.18	69provisional	0.14	13%	38	087% 112% 2+1%
Ryan AndrewsDEF	Watford	0.29	38provisional	0.14	13%	41	087% 111% 2+1%
Mattie PollockDEF	Watford	0.14	85provisional	0.13	13%	81	087% 112% 2+1%
Zak VynerDEF	Wrexham	0.14	86provisional	0.13	12%	84	088% 111% 2+1%
Omar TraoréDEF	Watford	0.16	65provisional	0.12	12%	57	088% 111% 2+1%
Moussa SissokoMID	Watford	0.23	43provisional	0.12	11%	60	089% 110% 2+1%
Conor CoadyDEF	Wrexham	0.12	80provisional	0.11	10%	39	090% 110% 2+1%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	0.11	89provisional	0.11	10%	91	090% 19% 2+1%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	0.12	79provisional	0.10	10%	26	090% 19% 2+1%
Dan ScarrDEF	Wrexham	0.12	73provisional	0.10	9%	20	091% 19% 2+1%
Jordan ZemuraDEF	Watford	0.13	59provisional	0.09	9%	41	091% 18% 2+0%
Nampalys MendyMID	Watford	0.10	68provisional	0.08	7%	25	093% 17% 2+0%
Jérémy PetrisDEF	Watford	0.09	62provisional	0.07	7%	17	093% 16% 2+0%
Kévin KebenDEF	Watford	0.07	74provisional	0.06	6%	36	094% 16% 2+0%
Ryan BarnettDEF	Wrexham	0.10	29provisional	0.04	4%	12	096% 14% 2+0%
James MorrisDEF	Watford	0.07	39provisional	0.03	3%	20	097% 1+3%
Anthony PattersonGK	Wrexham	0.00	90provisional	0.00	0%	62	0100% 1+0%
Danny WardGK	Wrexham	0.00	82provisional	0.00	0%	10	0100% 1+0%
Arthur OkonkwoGK	Wrexham	0.00	88provisional	0.00	0%	39	0100% 1+0%
Egil SelvikGK	Watford	0.00	88provisional	0.00	0%	56	0100% 1+0%
Federico RavagliaGK	Watford	0.00	86provisional	0.00	0%	30	0100% 1+0%
Daniel BachmannGK	Watford	0.00	85provisional	0.00	0%	22	0100% 1+0%

All 57 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won57 playersHighest: Lewis O'Brien, 1.27 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	1.66	67provisional	1.27	36%	55	034% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jérémy PetrisDEF	Watford	1.71	62provisional	1.24	35%	17	033% 133% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Hector KyprianouMID	Watford	1.16	79provisional	1.04	28%	26	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.41	62provisional	1.01	27%	70	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nestory IrankundaFWD	Watford	1.62	50provisional	0.97	26%	40	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tom Dele-BashiruMID	Watford	1.28	64provisional	0.95	25%	28	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Othmane MaammaFWD	Watford	1.17	70provisional	0.94	24%	26	041% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Imrân LouzaMID	Watford	0.99	84provisional	0.93	24%	75	040% 135% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	1.37	57provisional	0.93	24%	27	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	1.28	62provisional	0.92	24%	60	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 57 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 57 →

Saves6 playersHighest: Egil Selvik, 3.04 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Egil SelvikGK	Watford	3.09	88provisional	3.04	56%	56	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Daniel BachmannGK	Watford	2.81	85provisional	2.69	49%	22	09% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+7%
Federico RavagliaGK	Watford	2.74	86provisional	2.63	47%	30	010% 120% 223% 319% 413% 58% 6+7%
Arthur OkonkwoGK	Wrexham	2.54	88provisional	2.48	44%	39	011% 121% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+6%
Danny WardGK	Wrexham	2.46	82provisional	2.28	39%	10	013% 123% 224% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Anthony PattersonGK	Wrexham	2.14	90provisional	2.13	36%	62	014% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.