Championship · England

Birmingham CityvBristol City

Saturday 22 August at 12:30St. Andrew's Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls46 playersHighest: Jay Stansfield, 1.41 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	1.69	75provisional	1.41	41%	42	026% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ross McCrorieDEF	Bristol City	1.77	71provisional	1.39	40%	59	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
August PriskeFWD	Birmingham City	2.02	54provisional	1.20	33%	12	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	1.27	84provisional	1.19	33%	45	032% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jhon SolísMID	Birmingham City	1.43	65provisional	1.04	28%	15	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Seung-ho PaikMID	Birmingham City	1.14	78provisional	0.99	26%	39	038% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Phil NeumannDEF	Birmingham City	0.95	88provisional	0.93	24%	32	040% 136% 217% 35% 41% 5+0%
Sinclair ArmstrongFWD	Bristol City	2.02	41provisional	0.92	24%	49	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joe WilliamsMID	Bristol City	1.46	55provisional	0.90	24%	20	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Sam MorsyMID	Bristol City	1.24	65provisional	0.90	23%	16	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Christoph KlarerDEF	Birmingham City	0.86	90provisional	0.86	21%	43	043% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Cameron PringDEF	Bristol City	1.16	66provisional	0.85	22%	47	046% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Marc LeonardMID	Birmingham City	1.63	46provisional	0.83	21%	10	048% 131% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	1.09	68provisional	0.83	21%	72	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Emil RiisFWD	Bristol City	1.11	66provisional	0.82	20%	40	046% 134% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
Noah EileDEF	Bristol City	0.87	84provisional	0.81	20%	14	046% 134% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF	Birmingham City	1.21	58provisional	0.77	19%	20	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kyogo FuruhashiFWD	Birmingham City	1.90	36provisional	0.76	18%	14	052% 129% 212% 34% 42% 50% 6+0%
Zak VynerDEF	Bristol City	0.77	89provisional	0.75	18%	74	047% 135% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jason KnightMID	Bristol City	0.77	87provisional	0.74	17%	80	048% 135% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Neto BorgesDEF	Bristol City	0.93	72provisional	0.74	18%	32	050% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Tomi HorvatMID	Bristol City	1.16	57provisional	0.74	18%	11	052% 129% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kai WagnerDEF	Birmingham City	0.73	87provisional	0.71	16%	16	050% 135% 212% 33% 4+1%
Lewis KoumasFWD	Birmingham City	1.95	32provisional	0.70	17%	10	055% 128% 211% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Carlos VicenteFWD	Birmingham City	1.05	58provisional	0.68	16%	13	054% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Fally MayuluFWD	Bristol City	2.82	21provisional	0.67	15%	6	055% 130% 210% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Willum Thór WillumssonMID	Birmingham City	1.47	39provisional	0.64	16%	5	060% 123% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Demarai GrayFWD	Birmingham City	0.90	62provisional	0.62	14%	29	055% 131% 210% 33% 4+1%
Marvin DuckschFWD	Birmingham City	0.93	60provisional	0.62	14%	26	056% 130% 210% 33% 4+1%
Adam RandellMID	Bristol City	0.67	83provisional	0.62	13%	43	054% 133% 210% 32% 4+0%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Birmingham City	0.83	63provisional	0.58	13%	28	058% 130% 210% 32% 4+1%
Haydon RobertsDEF	Bristol City	1.07	49provisional	0.58	13%	29	059% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Tommy DoyleMID	Birmingham City	1.03	50provisional	0.57	13%	23	060% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Alex CochraneDEF	Birmingham City	0.68	73provisional	0.55	11%	19	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
George TannerDEF	Bristol City	0.69	70provisional	0.54	11%	57	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Jack RobinsonDEF	Birmingham City	0.61	75provisional	0.51	10%	15	060% 130% 28% 31% 4+0%
Ethan LairdDEF	Birmingham City	0.99	43provisional	0.48	10%	12	065% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Rob DickieDEF	Bristol City	0.50	84provisional	0.47	8%	67	063% 129% 27% 31% 4+0%
Max BirdMID	Bristol City	0.55	67provisional	0.40	7%	55	068% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Keshi AndersonFWD	Birmingham City	0.86	38provisional	0.36	6%	11	071% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Rob AtkinsonDEF	Bristol City	0.42	74provisional	0.35	5%	23	071% 124% 24% 3+1%
Yu HirakawaFWD	Bristol City	0.75	36provisional	0.30	5%	31	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Sam BellFWD	Bristol City	0.89	23provisional	0.23	3%	9	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
James BeadleGK	Birmingham City	0.03	90provisional	0.03	—	35	097% 1+3%
Ryan AllsopGK	Birmingham City	0.01	90provisional	0.01	—	11	099% 1+1%
Max O'LearyGK	Bristol City	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	53	0100% 1+0%

All 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Tackles46 playersHighest: George Tanner, 1.34 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
George TannerDEF	Bristol City	1.72	70provisional	1.34	37%	57	033% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kai WagnerDEF	Birmingham City	1.35	87provisional	1.31	37%	16	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Ross McCrorieDEF	Bristol City	1.53	71provisional	1.20	33%	59	034% 133% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Neto BorgesDEF	Bristol City	1.36	72provisional	1.09	29%	32	039% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Cameron PringDEF	Bristol City	1.41	66provisional	1.03	28%	47	041% 131% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Max BirdMID	Bristol City	1.33	67provisional	0.98	26%	55	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Seung-ho PaikMID	Birmingham City	1.08	78provisional	0.94	24%	39	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Marc LeonardMID	Birmingham City	1.84	46provisional	0.93	23%	10	046% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+1%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	0.98	84provisional	0.91	23%	45	043% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Zak VynerDEF	Bristol City	0.91	89provisional	0.90	23%	74	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Shots46 playersHighest: Jay Stansfield, 2.31 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	2.77	75provisional	2.31	64%	42	013% 123% 224% 319% 411% 56% 6+4%
Marvin DuckschFWD	Birmingham City	2.92	60provisional	1.93	53%	26	022% 125% 221% 315% 49% 55% 6+3%
Demarai GrayFWD	Birmingham City	2.70	62provisional	1.86	52%	29	021% 127% 223% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	2.29	68provisional	1.73	50%	72	022% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Birmingham City	2.21	63provisional	1.55	44%	28	028% 128% 221% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
August PriskeFWD	Birmingham City	2.47	54provisional	1.47	40%	12	032% 128% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Emil RiisFWD	Bristol City	1.87	66provisional	1.38	39%	40	028% 132% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Carlos VicenteFWD	Birmingham City	2.00	58provisional	1.30	36%	13	035% 130% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kyogo FuruhashiFWD	Birmingham City	2.95	36provisional	1.18	30%	14	039% 130% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	1.25	84provisional	1.17	33%	45	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Fouls won46 playersHighest: Jason Knight, 1.49 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jason KnightMID	Bristol City	1.55	87provisional	1.49	43%	80	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Scott TwineMID	Bristol City	1.72	68provisional	1.30	37%	72	031% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Adam RandellMID	Bristol City	1.35	83provisional	1.24	35%	43	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Demarai GrayFWD	Birmingham City	1.53	62provisional	1.05	28%	29	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Cameron PringDEF	Bristol City	1.42	66provisional	1.04	28%	47	039% 132% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Birmingham City	1.43	63provisional	1.00	27%	28	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Keshi AndersonFWD	Birmingham City	2.32	38provisional	0.98	25%	11	044% 131% 215% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF	Birmingham City	1.51	58provisional	0.97	26%	20	044% 130% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ethan LairdDEF	Birmingham City	1.98	43provisional	0.95	25%	12	046% 130% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Carlos VicenteFWD	Birmingham City	1.40	58provisional	0.91	24%	13	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Cards46 playersHighest: Ross McCrorie, 0.21 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Ross McCrorieDEF	Bristol City	0.27	71provisional	0.21	19%	59	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Christoph KlarerDEF	Birmingham City	0.18	90provisional	0.18	16%	43	084% 115% 2+1%
Cameron PringDEF	Bristol City	0.24	66provisional	0.18	16%	47	084% 115% 21% 3+0%
James BeadleGK	Birmingham City	0.17	90provisional	0.17	16%	35	084% 114% 2+1%
Jhon SolísMID	Birmingham City	0.23	65provisional	0.17	15%	15	085% 114% 2+1%
Noah EileDEF	Bristol City	0.18	84provisional	0.16	15%	14	085% 114% 2+1%
Phil NeumannDEF	Birmingham City	0.17	88provisional	0.16	15%	32	085% 114% 2+1%
Tomoki IwataMID	Birmingham City	0.17	84provisional	0.16	15%	45	085% 114% 2+1%
Sam MorsyMID	Bristol City	0.22	65provisional	0.16	15%	16	085% 113% 2+1%
Jay StansfieldFWD	Birmingham City	0.19	75provisional	0.16	15%	42	085% 113% 2+1%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Max O'Leary, 2.80 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Max O'LearyGK	Bristol City	2.80	90provisional	2.80	51%	53	08% 118% 223% 320% 414% 59% 6+8%
James BeadleGK	Birmingham City	2.35	90provisional	2.35	41%	35	011% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
Ryan AllsopGK	Birmingham City	2.20	90provisional	2.20	37%	11	013% 125% 225% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.