Championship · England

Cardiff CityvWrexham

Monday 17 August at 20:00Cardiff City Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Andrew Kitchen

57 matches on record

Fouls per game

23.0

+2% vs league

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls44 playersHighest: Kieffer Moore, 1.17 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Kieffer Moore
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.52
037%
131%
219%
39%
44%
51%
6+0%
Yousef Salech
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.51
040%
131%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
George Thomason
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.13
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
George Dobson
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.14
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Alexander Robertson
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.20
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Callum O'Dowda
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
0.95
042%
135%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Lewis O'Brien
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.11
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Samuel Toby Smith
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.04
054%
124%
212%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Ben Sheaf
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.18
045%
134%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.07
045%
134%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
James McClean
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.35
051%
127%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Andrew Ferai Rinomhota
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.09
046%
132%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Ryan Longman
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.19
049%
129%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Rubin Colwill
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.24
049%
130%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
C. Ashford
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.32
050%
129%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Nathan Broadhead
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.40
050%
130%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Emmanouil Siopis
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.03
049%
131%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Callum Robinson
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.18
049%
132%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Dominic Hyam
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
0.78
047%
134%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Joe Ralls
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.24
050%
131%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.52	69provisional	1.17	33%	39	037% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Yousef SalechFWD	Cardiff City	1.51	64provisional	1.07	29%	20	040% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	1.13	76provisional	0.95	25%	34	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	1.14	73provisional	0.93	24%	40	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alexander RobertsonMID	Cardiff City	1.20	69provisional	0.93	24%	35	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Callum O'DowdaMID	Cardiff City	0.95	85provisional	0.89	23%	42	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	1.11	71provisional	0.88	23%	38	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Samuel Toby SmithFWD	Wrexham	2.04	39provisional	0.87	23%	40	054% 124% 212% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	1.18	66provisional	0.86	22%	28	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Sivert Heggheim MannsverkMID	Cardiff City	1.07	72provisional	0.86	22%	14	045% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	1.35	57provisional	0.85	23%	16	051% 127% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Andrew Ferai RinomhotaMID	Cardiff City	1.09	70provisional	0.85	22%	30	046% 132% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Ryan LongmanMID	Wrexham	1.19	62provisional	0.82	21%	33	049% 129% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Rubin ColwillMID	Cardiff City	1.24	59provisional	0.81	20%	43	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
C. AshfordFWD	Cardiff City	1.32	55provisional	0.80	21%	28	050% 129% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	1.40	51provisional	0.80	20%	37	050% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Emmanouil SiopisMID	Cardiff City	1.03	69provisional	0.79	20%	21	049% 131% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Callum RobinsonFWD	Cardiff City	1.18	60provisional	0.78	19%	34	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	0.78	90provisional	0.78	18%	40	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Joe RallsMID	Cardiff City	1.24	56provisional	0.76	19%	21	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles44 playersHighest: George Dobson, 1.77 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

George Dobson
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.77
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
2.19
021%
128%
223%
315%
48%
53%
6+2%
James McClean
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.75
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
2.77
032%
121%
217%
314%
49%
55%
6+3%
George Thomason
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.69
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
2.01
023%
128%
223%
315%
47%
53%
6+1%
Lewis O'Brien
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.67
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.12
025%
127%
222%
314%
47%
53%
6+1%
Callum O'Dowda
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.66
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
1.77
020%
131%
226%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Alexander Robertson
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.64
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.13
023%
129%
223%
314%
47%
52%
6+1%
Emmanouil Siopis
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.60
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
2.08
026%
128%
222%
314%
47%
53%
6+1%
Andrew Ferai Rinomhota
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.58
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
2.03
025%
129%
223%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Ben Sheaf
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.55
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.11
024%
131%
224%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.52
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.89
024%
132%
224%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Max Cleworth
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
1.51
024%
132%
224%
312%
45%
51%
6+0%
Matty James
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.46
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
2.18
031%
128%
220%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Ryan Longman
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.41
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.07
032%
127%
220%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Callum Doyle
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.49
025%
134%
224%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Perry Ng
DEF · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.56
027%
133%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Calum Chambers
DEF · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.40
026%
135%
223%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Dominic Hyam
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.32
027%
135%
223%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Joe Ralls
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.03
034%
131%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Oliver Rathbone
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.51
037%
129%
217%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Rubin Colwill
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.91
035%
131%
219%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	2.19	73provisional	1.77	51%	40	021% 128% 223% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	2.77	57provisional	1.75	47%	16	032% 121% 217% 314% 49% 55% 6+3%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	2.01	76provisional	1.69	49%	34	023% 128% 223% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	2.12	71provisional	1.67	48%	38	025% 127% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Callum O'DowdaMID	Cardiff City	1.77	85provisional	1.66	49%	42	020% 131% 226% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Alexander RobertsonMID	Cardiff City	2.13	69provisional	1.64	48%	35	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 52% 6+1%
Emmanouil SiopisMID	Cardiff City	2.08	69provisional	1.60	46%	21	026% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Andrew Ferai RinomhotaMID	Cardiff City	2.03	70provisional	1.58	46%	30	025% 129% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	2.11	66provisional	1.55	45%	28	024% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Sivert Heggheim MannsverkMID	Cardiff City	1.89	72provisional	1.52	44%	14	024% 132% 224% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Max CleworthDEF	Wrexham	1.51	88provisional	1.47	43%	41	024% 132% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+0%
Matty JamesMID	Wrexham	2.18	60provisional	1.46	41%	37	031% 128% 220% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Ryan LongmanMID	Wrexham	2.07	62provisional	1.41	40%	33	032% 127% 220% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Callum DoyleDEF	Wrexham	1.49	85provisional	1.40	41%	34	025% 134% 224% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Perry NgDEF	Cardiff City	1.56	80provisional	1.38	40%	35	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Calum ChambersDEF	Cardiff City	1.40	86provisional	1.34	39%	41	026% 135% 223% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	1.32	90provisional	1.32	38%	40	027% 135% 223% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Joe RallsMID	Cardiff City	2.03	56provisional	1.25	35%	21	034% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	2.51	45provisional	1.25	34%	26	037% 129% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Rubin ColwillMID	Cardiff City	1.91	59provisional	1.24	34%	43	035% 131% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots44 playersHighest: Yousef Salech, 1.78 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Yousef Salech
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.78
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
2.50
027%
126%
219%
313%
48%
54%
6+4%
Callum Robinson
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.64
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.47
027%
128%
220%
312%
47%
53%
6+2%
Kieffer Moore
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.85
032%
128%
219%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
C. Ashford
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.34
035%
127%
217%
310%
46%
53%
6+2%
Ollie Tanner
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
48
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.59
035%
129%
217%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Anwar El Ghazi
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.62
033%
130%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Chris Willock
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
48
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.47
035%
130%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Samuel Toby Smith
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
2.73
048%
123%
212%
38%
45%
53%
6+2%
Yakou Meïté
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
2.93
042%
129%
214%
37%
44%
52%
6+2%
Callum O'Dowda
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.20
035%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Nathan Broadhead
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.92
041%
130%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+1%
Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.32
038%
133%
218%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Aka Wilfried Kanga
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
33
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
2.76
048%
127%
213%
36%
43%
52%
6+1%
Emmanouil Siopis
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.29
043%
131%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Alexander Robertson
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.26
042%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Rubin Colwill
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.49
045%
130%
215%
36%
43%
51%
6+0%
Josh Windass
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.48
044%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Andrew Ferai Rinomhota
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.23
043%
131%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Joe Ralls
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.40
047%
131%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
George Thomason
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
0.98
048%
131%
214%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Yousef SalechFWD	Cardiff City	2.50	64provisional	1.78	47%	20	027% 126% 219% 313% 48% 54% 6+4%
Callum RobinsonFWD	Cardiff City	2.47	60provisional	1.64	45%	34	027% 128% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.85	69provisional	1.42	39%	39	032% 128% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
C. AshfordFWD	Cardiff City	2.34	55provisional	1.42	38%	28	035% 127% 217% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
Ollie TannerFWD	Cardiff City	2.59	48provisional	1.37	36%	29	035% 129% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Anwar El GhaziFWD	Cardiff City	2.62	47provisional	1.37	37%	25	033% 130% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Chris WillockFWD	Cardiff City	2.47	48provisional	1.33	36%	32	035% 130% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Samuel Toby SmithFWD	Wrexham	2.73	39provisional	1.17	29%	40	048% 123% 212% 38% 45% 53% 6+2%
Yakou MeïtéFWD	Cardiff City	2.93	36provisional	1.16	29%	34	042% 129% 214% 37% 44% 52% 6+2%
Callum O'DowdaMID	Cardiff City	1.20	85provisional	1.13	31%	42	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	1.92	51provisional	1.10	29%	37	041% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Sivert Heggheim MannsverkMID	Cardiff City	1.32	72provisional	1.06	29%	14	038% 133% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aka Wilfried KangaFWD	Cardiff City	2.76	33provisional	1.00	25%	15	048% 127% 213% 36% 43% 52% 6+1%
Emmanouil SiopisMID	Cardiff City	1.29	69provisional	0.99	26%	21	043% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alexander RobertsonMID	Cardiff City	1.26	69provisional	0.97	26%	35	042% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Rubin ColwillMID	Cardiff City	1.49	59provisional	0.97	25%	43	045% 130% 215% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	1.48	59provisional	0.96	25%	41	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Andrew Ferai RinomhotaMID	Cardiff City	1.23	70provisional	0.96	25%	30	043% 131% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joe RallsMID	Cardiff City	1.40	56provisional	0.87	22%	21	047% 131% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	0.98	76provisional	0.82	21%	34	048% 131% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target44 playersHighest: Yousef Salech, 0.75 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Yousef Salech
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.75
O 0.5
48%
Model /90
1.05
052%
130%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Callum Robinson
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.72
O 0.5
48%
Model /90
1.09
052%
130%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Kieffer Moore
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.53
O 0.5
38%
Model /90
0.68
062%
127%
28%
32%
4+1%
Anwar El Ghazi
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.50
O 0.5
37%
Model /90
0.96
063%
127%
28%
32%
40%
5+0%
Samuel Toby Smith
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.49
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
1.13
068%
121%
27%
33%
41%
5+0%
Ollie Tanner
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
48
Proj.
0.48
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.91
065%
125%
27%
32%
40%
5+0%
C. Ashford
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.43
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.71
068%
124%
27%
32%
4+0%
Chris Willock
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
48
Proj.
0.42
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.78
068%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Yakou Meïté
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.39
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.99
071%
122%
26%
31%
4+0%
Callum O'Dowda
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.36
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.38
071%
124%
25%
3+1%
Josh Windass
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.36
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.55
072%
123%
25%
31%
4+0%
Rubin Colwill
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.53
073%
122%
25%
31%
4+0%
Nathan Broadhead
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.60
073%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Aka Wilfried Kanga
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
33
Proj.
0.33
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.90
075%
119%
25%
31%
4+0%
Alexander Robertson
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.42
073%
122%
24%
3+1%
Lewis O'Brien
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.31
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.39
075%
121%
24%
3+1%
Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.36
076%
121%
23%
3+0%
Emmanouil Siopis
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.37
076%
120%
23%
3+1%
David Turnbull
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.58
077%
119%
24%
3+1%
Andrew Ferai Rinomhota
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.35
077%
119%
23%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Yousef SalechFWD	Cardiff City	1.05	64provisional	0.75	48%	20	052% 130% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Callum RobinsonFWD	Cardiff City	1.09	60provisional	0.72	48%	34	052% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	0.68	69provisional	0.53	38%	39	062% 127% 28% 32% 4+1%
Anwar El GhaziFWD	Cardiff City	0.96	47provisional	0.50	37%	25	063% 127% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
Samuel Toby SmithFWD	Wrexham	1.13	39provisional	0.49	32%	40	068% 121% 27% 33% 41% 5+0%
Ollie TannerFWD	Cardiff City	0.91	48provisional	0.48	35%	29	065% 125% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
C. AshfordFWD	Cardiff City	0.71	55provisional	0.43	32%	28	068% 124% 27% 32% 4+0%
Chris WillockFWD	Cardiff City	0.78	48provisional	0.42	32%	32	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Yakou MeïtéFWD	Cardiff City	0.99	36provisional	0.39	29%	34	071% 122% 26% 31% 4+0%
Callum O'DowdaMID	Cardiff City	0.38	85provisional	0.36	29%	42	071% 124% 25% 3+1%
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	0.55	59provisional	0.36	28%	41	072% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Rubin ColwillMID	Cardiff City	0.53	59provisional	0.34	27%	43	073% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	0.60	51provisional	0.34	27%	37	073% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Aka Wilfried KangaFWD	Cardiff City	0.90	33provisional	0.33	25%	15	075% 119% 25% 31% 4+0%
Alexander RobertsonMID	Cardiff City	0.42	69provisional	0.32	27%	35	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	0.39	71provisional	0.31	25%	38	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Sivert Heggheim MannsverkMID	Cardiff City	0.36	72provisional	0.29	24%	14	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Emmanouil SiopisMID	Cardiff City	0.37	69provisional	0.28	24%	21	076% 120% 23% 3+1%
David TurnbullMID	Cardiff City	0.58	43provisional	0.28	23%	19	077% 119% 24% 3+1%
Andrew Ferai RinomhotaMID	Cardiff City	0.35	70provisional	0.27	23%	30	077% 119% 23% 3+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won44 playersHighest: Kieffer Moore, 1.05 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Kieffer Moore
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.37
041%
130%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lewis O'Brien
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.31
042%
130%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Callum O'Dowda
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.07
039%
134%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Yousef Salech
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.35
045%
130%
215%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Andrew Ferai Rinomhota
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.19
044%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
George Thomason
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.10
044%
132%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Alexander Robertson
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.16
045%
132%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Emmanouil Siopis
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.16
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ben Sheaf
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.20
045%
133%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.06
046%
133%
214%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Chris Willock
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
48
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.55
049%
130%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Callum Robinson
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.24
048%
131%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Anwar El Ghazi
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.58
049%
130%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
C. Ashford
FWD · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.33
051%
128%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Perry Ng
DEF · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.90
048%
132%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
George Dobson
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.98
049%
131%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Nathan Broadhead
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.35
052%
129%
212%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Matty James
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.13
052%
129%
212%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Dominic Hyam
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.73
050%
133%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Ryan Longman
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.05
054%
128%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.37	69provisional	1.05	28%	39	041% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	1.31	71provisional	1.03	28%	38	042% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Callum O'DowdaMID	Cardiff City	1.07	85provisional	1.01	27%	42	039% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Yousef SalechFWD	Cardiff City	1.35	64provisional	0.96	25%	20	045% 130% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Andrew Ferai RinomhotaMID	Cardiff City	1.19	70provisional	0.93	24%	30	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	1.10	76provisional	0.92	24%	34	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alexander RobertsonMID	Cardiff City	1.16	69provisional	0.90	23%	35	045% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Emmanouil SiopisMID	Cardiff City	1.16	69provisional	0.89	23%	21	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	1.20	66provisional	0.88	22%	28	045% 133% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Sivert Heggheim MannsverkMID	Cardiff City	1.06	72provisional	0.85	21%	14	046% 133% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Chris WillockFWD	Cardiff City	1.55	48provisional	0.83	21%	32	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Callum RobinsonFWD	Cardiff City	1.24	60provisional	0.83	21%	34	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Anwar El GhaziFWD	Cardiff City	1.58	47provisional	0.82	21%	25	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
C. AshfordFWD	Cardiff City	1.33	55provisional	0.81	21%	28	051% 128% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Perry NgDEF	Cardiff City	0.90	80provisional	0.80	20%	35	048% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	0.98	73provisional	0.80	20%	40	049% 131% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	1.35	51provisional	0.77	19%	37	052% 129% 212% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Matty JamesMID	Wrexham	1.13	60provisional	0.76	19%	37	052% 129% 212% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	0.73	90provisional	0.73	17%	40	050% 133% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ryan LongmanMID	Wrexham	1.05	62provisional	0.72	18%	33	054% 128% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards44 playersHighest: George Dobson, 0.14 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

George Dobson
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Ben Sheaf
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.18
088%
112%
2+1%
Callum Doyle
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Callum O'Dowda
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%
Alexander Robertson
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
111%
2+1%
Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
111%
2+1%
Max Cleworth
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.13
088%
111%
2+1%
Lewis O'Brien
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
111%
2+1%
George Thomason
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.15
089%
111%
2+1%
Calum Chambers
DEF · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.13
088%
111%
2+1%
Andrew Ferai Rinomhota
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.16
089%
111%
2+1%
Dominic Hyam
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.12
089%
111%
2+1%
James McClean
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.19
089%
110%
2+1%
Ryan Longman
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.17
089%
110%
2+1%
Joe Ralls
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.18
090%
110%
2+1%
Perry Ng
DEF · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.13
090%
110%
2+1%
Dan Scarr
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.15
090%
110%
2+1%
Dimitrios Goutas
DEF · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.12
090%
110%
2+1%
Kieffer Moore
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.14
090%
110%
2+1%
Matty James
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.16
090%
19%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	0.17	73provisional	0.14	13%	40	087% 112% 2+1%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	0.18	66provisional	0.13	12%	28	088% 112% 2+1%
Callum DoyleDEF	Wrexham	0.14	85provisional	0.13	12%	34	088% 111% 2+1%
Callum O'DowdaMID	Cardiff City	0.14	85provisional	0.13	12%	42	088% 111% 2+1%
Alexander RobertsonMID	Cardiff City	0.16	69provisional	0.13	12%	35	088% 111% 2+1%
Sivert Heggheim MannsverkMID	Cardiff City	0.16	72provisional	0.13	12%	14	088% 111% 2+1%
Max CleworthDEF	Wrexham	0.13	88provisional	0.13	12%	41	088% 111% 2+1%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	0.16	71provisional	0.12	12%	38	088% 111% 2+1%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	0.15	76provisional	0.12	11%	34	089% 111% 2+1%
Calum ChambersDEF	Cardiff City	0.13	86provisional	0.12	12%	41	088% 111% 2+1%
Andrew Ferai RinomhotaMID	Cardiff City	0.16	70provisional	0.12	11%	30	089% 111% 2+1%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	0.12	90provisional	0.12	11%	40	089% 111% 2+1%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	0.19	57provisional	0.12	11%	16	089% 110% 2+1%
Ryan LongmanMID	Wrexham	0.17	62provisional	0.12	11%	33	089% 110% 2+1%
Joe RallsMID	Cardiff City	0.18	56provisional	0.11	10%	21	090% 110% 2+1%
Perry NgDEF	Cardiff City	0.13	80provisional	0.11	10%	35	090% 110% 2+1%
Dan ScarrDEF	Wrexham	0.15	67provisional	0.11	10%	20	090% 110% 2+1%
Dimitrios GoutasDEF	Cardiff City	0.12	86provisional	0.11	10%	34	090% 110% 2+1%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	0.14	69provisional	0.11	10%	39	090% 110% 2+1%
Matty JamesMID	Wrexham	0.16	60provisional	0.11	10%	37	090% 19% 2+1%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves44 playersHighest: Arthur Okonkwo, 4.03 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Arthur Okonkwo
GK · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
4.03
O 2.5
72%
Model /90
4.13
05%
19%
214%
317%
417%
514%
6+25%
Jak Alnwick
GK · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.35
O 2.5
41%
Model /90
2.35
012%
123%
225%
319%
412%
56%
6+5%
Ethan Horvath
GK · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.27
O 2.5
39%
Model /90
2.27
012%
124%
225%
318%
411%
56%
6+4%
Dominic Hyam
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Max Cleworth
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Callum Doyle
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
George Thomason
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
George Dobson
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Kieffer Moore
FWD · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lewis O'Brien
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ben Sheaf
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Dan Scarr
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ryan Longman
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Matty James
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Josh Windass
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Liberato Gianpaolo Cacace
DEF · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
James McClean
MID · Wrexham
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Dimitrios Goutas
DEF · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Calum Chambers
DEF · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Callum O'Dowda
MID · Cardiff City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Arthur OkonkwoGK	Wrexham	4.13	88provisional	4.03	72%	39	05% 19% 214% 317% 417% 514% 6+25%
Jak AlnwickGK	Cardiff City	2.35	90provisional	2.35	41%	29	012% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%
Ethan HorvathGK	Cardiff City	2.27	90provisional	2.27	39%	17	012% 124% 225% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	40	0100% 1+0%
Max CleworthDEF	Wrexham	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	41	0100% 1+0%
Callum DoyleDEF	Wrexham	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	34	0100% 1+0%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	34	0100% 1+0%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	0.00	73provisional	0.00	—	40	0100% 1+0%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	39	0100% 1+0%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	0.00	71provisional	0.00	—	38	0100% 1+0%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	0.00	66provisional	0.00	—	28	0100% 1+0%
Dan ScarrDEF	Wrexham	0.00	67provisional	0.00	—	20	0100% 1+0%
Ryan LongmanMID	Wrexham	0.00	62provisional	0.00	—	33	0100% 1+0%
Matty JamesMID	Wrexham	0.00	60provisional	0.00	—	37	0100% 1+0%
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	0.00	59provisional	0.00	—	41	0100% 1+0%
Liberato Gianpaolo CacaceDEF	Wrexham	0.00	60provisional	0.00	—	12	0100% 1+0%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	0.00	57provisional	0.00	—	16	0100% 1+0%
Dimitrios GoutasDEF	Cardiff City	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	34	0100% 1+0%
Calum ChambersDEF	Cardiff City	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	41	0100% 1+0%
Callum O'DowdaMID	Cardiff City	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	42	0100% 1+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.