Championship · England

BurnleyvWest Ham United

Sunday 16 August at 16:00Turf Moorlineups not announced

Referee

Joshua Smith

51 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.1

-9% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls39 playersHighest: Taty Castellanos, 1.57 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	1.82	78provisional	1.57	46%	18	022% 132% 225% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	2.04	66provisional	1.49	43%	49	029% 129% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.73	77provisional	1.48	43%	47	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Luca KoleoshoFWD	Burnley	2.01	60provisional	1.34	38%	20	035% 127% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	1.87	64provisional	1.32	37%	24	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
PabloFWD	West Ham United	1.94	59provisional	1.28	36%	10	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	1.59	68provisional	1.21	34%	58	034% 132% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	1.60	65provisional	1.16	32%	41	036% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
HannibalMID	Burnley	2.03	50provisional	1.12	31%	40	041% 129% 217% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	1.16	86provisional	1.10	30%	61	034% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Tackles39 playersHighest: Kyle Walker-Peters, 1.27 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	1.89	60provisional	1.27	34%	16	039% 126% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF	West Ham United	1.26	86provisional	1.20	33%	59	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lucas PiresDEF	Burnley	1.33	78provisional	1.15	32%	48	036% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.28	77provisional	1.09	30%	47	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kyle WalkerDEF	Burnley	1.03	86provisional	0.98	26%	35	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF	West Ham United	1.21	73provisional	0.98	26%	45	041% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Bashir HumphreysDEF	Burnley	1.17	75provisional	0.97	26%	38	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Oliver ScarlesDEF	West Ham United	1.78	47provisional	0.94	25%	17	047% 128% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	1.32	64provisional	0.94	24%	24	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Soungoutou MagassaMID	West Ham United	1.86	45provisional	0.92	24%	12	050% 127% 213% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Shots39 playersHighest: Zian Flemming, 2.50 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	3.42	66provisional	2.50	64%	49	017% 120% 219% 316% 412% 58% 6+8%
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	2.56	78provisional	2.20	63%	18	013% 125% 225% 318% 411% 55% 6+3%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	2.02	89provisional	1.99	58%	72	015% 127% 226% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Lyle FosterFWD	Burnley	2.41	55provisional	1.47	40%	33	033% 127% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Luca KoleoshoFWD	Burnley	2.15	60provisional	1.44	40%	20	034% 126% 219% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Marcus EdwardsFWD	Burnley	2.37	54provisional	1.43	39%	25	034% 127% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	1.77	65provisional	1.29	36%	41	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.40	77provisional	1.19	33%	47	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
PabloFWD	West Ham United	1.70	59provisional	1.12	31%	10	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
HannibalMID	Burnley	2.02	50provisional	1.11	30%	40	041% 128% 216% 38% 44% 51% 6+1%
Armando BrojaFWD	Burnley	2.78	35provisional	1.09	27%	9	048% 125% 212% 37% 44% 52% 6+2%
Jacob Bruun LarsenFWD	Burnley	2.49	37provisional	1.01	26%	12	044% 130% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Niclas FüllkrugFWD	West Ham United	1.88	46provisional	0.96	25%	18	043% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	1.22	68provisional	0.92	24%	58	044% 132% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	0.82	86provisional	0.79	19%	61	047% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Josh LaurentMID	Burnley	1.26	56provisional	0.78	20%	46	052% 128% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lucas PiresDEF	Burnley	0.89	78provisional	0.77	19%	48	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Lesley UgochukwuMID	Burnley	0.97	67provisional	0.73	17%	30	051% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
James Ward-ProwseMID	Burnley	0.86	73provisional	0.70	16%	18	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Bashir HumphreysDEF	Burnley	0.66	75provisional	0.55	11%	38	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Konstantinos MavropanosDEF	West Ham United	0.67	72provisional	0.53	11%	53	061% 128% 29% 32% 4+0%
El Hadji Malick DioufDEF	West Ham United	0.54	85provisional	0.50	10%	31	061% 129% 28% 31% 4+0%
Hjalmar EkdalDEF	Burnley	0.54	81provisional	0.49	9%	17	063% 128% 28% 31% 4+0%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	0.58	64provisional	0.41	7%	24	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Axel TuanzebeDEF	Burnley	0.42	86provisional	0.40	6%	14	067% 126% 25% 3+1%
Ashley BarnesFWD	Burnley	3.87	9provisional	0.39	6%	1	076% 118% 23% 31% 41% 51% 6+1%
Soungoutou MagassaMID	West Ham United	0.77	45provisional	0.38	7%	12	071% 122% 26% 31% 4+0%
Maximilian KilmanDEF	West Ham United	0.36	83provisional	0.33	5%	54	072% 123% 24% 3+1%
Joe WorrallDEF	Burnley	0.68	39provisional	0.30	6%	9	078% 117% 24% 31% 4+0%
Kyle WalkerDEF	Burnley	0.30	86provisional	0.29	4%	35	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Freddie PottsMID	West Ham United	0.48	53provisional	0.28	4%	15	076% 120% 23% 3+1%
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF	West Ham United	0.30	86provisional	0.28	3%	59	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Oliver ScarlesDEF	West Ham United	0.52	47provisional	0.27	4%	17	077% 119% 23% 3+1%
Andrew IrvingMID	West Ham United	1.17	19provisional	0.25	4%	3	081% 115% 23% 31% 4+0%
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	0.37	60provisional	0.25	3%	16	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF	West Ham United	0.23	73provisional	0.19	2%	45	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Mohamadou KantéMID	West Ham United	1.12	7provisional	0.09	0%	0	091% 18% 2+0%
Mads HermansenGK	West Ham United	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	18	0100% 1+0%
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%

All 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won39 playersHighest: Lucas Paquetá, 1.69 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.98	77provisional	1.69	49%	47	022% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	2.32	65provisional	1.68	47%	41	025% 128% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
HannibalMID	Burnley	2.95	50provisional	1.63	44%	40	031% 125% 218% 312% 47% 54% 6+3%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	1.59	86provisional	1.52	44%	61	024% 132% 224% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	1.38	89provisional	1.36	39%	72	027% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Marcus EdwardsFWD	Burnley	1.99	54provisional	1.20	33%	25	039% 128% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	1.59	66provisional	1.16	32%	49	037% 131% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	1.38	60provisional	0.93	25%	16	047% 128% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	1.02	78provisional	0.88	22%	18	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Lesley UgochukwuMID	Burnley	1.13	67provisional	0.85	21%	30	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Cards39 playersHighest: Lucas Paquetá, 0.21 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	0.25	77provisional	0.21	19%	47	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	0.27	64provisional	0.19	17%	24	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
HannibalMID	Burnley	0.31	50provisional	0.17	15%	40	085% 114% 22% 3+0%
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	0.19	78provisional	0.16	15%	18	085% 114% 2+1%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	0.21	68provisional	0.16	14%	58	086% 113% 2+1%
Kyle WalkerDEF	Burnley	0.16	86provisional	0.15	14%	35	086% 113% 2+1%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	0.16	86provisional	0.15	14%	61	086% 113% 2+1%
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	0.14	88provisional	0.13	12%	46	088% 112% 2+1%
Josh LaurentMID	Burnley	0.21	56provisional	0.13	12%	46	088% 111% 2+1%
Axel TuanzebeDEF	Burnley	0.14	86provisional	0.13	12%	14	088% 112% 2+1%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Alphonse Areola, 3.27 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	3.34	88provisional	3.27	61%	46	05% 114% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+14%
Mads HermansenGK	West Ham United	2.94	90provisional	2.94	54%	18	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.