Championship · England

BurnleyvWest Ham United

Sunday 16 August at 16:00Turf Moorlineups not announced

Referee

Joshua Smith

51 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.1

-9% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1947 · Tackles v20260815-1947 · Shots v20260815-1947 · Fouls won v20260815-1947 · Cards v20260815-1947 · Saves v20260815-1947

Model projections

Fouls39 playersHighest: Zian Flemming, 1.53 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	1.92	72provisional	1.53	44%	49	024% 131% 224% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.70	79provisional	1.49	44%	47	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	1.76	75provisional	1.47	43%	18	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+0%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	1.88	60provisional	1.25	35%	24	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	1.52	74provisional	1.24	35%	58	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
HannibalMID	Burnley	1.85	59provisional	1.21	34%	40	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	1.52	72provisional	1.21	34%	41	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luca KoleoshoFWD	Burnley	1.95	54provisional	1.17	33%	20	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
PabloFWD	West Ham United	1.87	55provisional	1.14	31%	10	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	1.14	86provisional	1.09	30%	61	034% 136% 220% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Niclas FüllkrugFWD	West Ham United	2.08	38provisional	0.88	22%	18	043% 134% 215% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Lesley UgochukwuMID	Burnley	1.10	72provisional	0.88	22%	30	043% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Kyle WalkerDEF	Burnley	0.89	87provisional	0.86	22%	35	043% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
El Hadji Malick DioufDEF	West Ham United	0.90	86provisional	0.86	21%	31	043% 136% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Axel TuanzebeDEF	Burnley	0.88	86provisional	0.84	21%	14	043% 136% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
James Ward-ProwseMID	Burnley	0.95	76provisional	0.80	19%	18	046% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF	West Ham United	0.78	87provisional	0.76	18%	59	047% 135% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Lucas PiresDEF	Burnley	0.84	81provisional	0.75	18%	48	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Lyle FosterFWD	Burnley	1.60	40provisional	0.72	17%	33	052% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	0.88	70provisional	0.69	16%	16	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Josh LaurentMID	Burnley	1.43	41provisional	0.65	15%	46	056% 130% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Freddie PottsMID	West Ham United	1.41	41provisional	0.65	14%	15	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	0.61	89provisional	0.60	12%	72	055% 133% 210% 32% 4+0%
Soungoutou MagassaMID	West Ham United	1.65	32provisional	0.60	13%	12	058% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Konstantinos MavropanosDEF	West Ham United	0.63	78provisional	0.54	11%	53	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Andrew IrvingMID	West Ham United	1.78	27provisional	0.53	12%	3	063% 125% 28% 33% 41% 5+0%
Bashir HumphreysDEF	Burnley	0.68	66provisional	0.50	10%	38	062% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF	West Ham United	0.58	77provisional	0.50	9%	45	061% 130% 28% 31% 4+0%
Armando BrojaFWD	Burnley	1.67	27provisional	0.49	10%	9	064% 126% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Maximilian KilmanDEF	West Ham United	0.77	53provisional	0.45	9%	54	067% 124% 27% 32% 4+0%
Hjalmar EkdalDEF	Burnley	0.44	84provisional	0.42	7%	17	066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Joe WorrallDEF	Burnley	0.85	42provisional	0.40	8%	9	070% 122% 26% 31% 4+0%
Oliver ScarlesDEF	West Ham United	0.91	35provisional	0.35	6%	17	072% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Marcus EdwardsFWD	Burnley	0.74	39provisional	0.32	5%	25	074% 121% 24% 31% 4+0%
Jacob Bruun LarsenFWD	Burnley	0.62	30provisional	0.20	2%	12	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Mohamadou KantéMID	West Ham United	2.45	7provisional	0.20	2%	0	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Ashley BarnesFWD	Burnley	2.17	8provisional	0.18	2%	1	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	0.02	89provisional	0.02	—	46	098% 1+2%
Mads HermansenGK	West Ham United	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	18	0100% 1+0%

All 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Tackles39 playersHighest: Kyle Walker-Peters, 1.35 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	1.73	70provisional	1.35	37%	16	033% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lucas PiresDEF	Burnley	1.27	81provisional	1.15	31%	48	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF	West Ham United	1.17	87provisional	1.14	31%	59	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.26	79provisional	1.11	30%	47	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF	West Ham United	1.21	77provisional	1.03	28%	45	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kyle WalkerDEF	Burnley	0.99	87provisional	0.95	25%	35	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
James Ward-ProwseMID	Burnley	1.10	76provisional	0.93	24%	18	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	0.95	86provisional	0.91	23%	61	042% 134% 216% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	1.33	60provisional	0.88	22%	24	045% 133% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lesley UgochukwuMID	Burnley	1.08	72provisional	0.86	22%	30	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Shots39 playersHighest: Zian Flemming, 2.67 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	3.35	72provisional	2.67	69%	49	012% 119% 221% 318% 413% 58% 6+8%
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	2.61	75provisional	2.17	62%	18	013% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	2.01	89provisional	1.98	57%	72	015% 127% 226% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	1.77	72provisional	1.41	40%	41	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Luca KoleoshoFWD	Burnley	2.06	54provisional	1.24	34%	20	038% 128% 218% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
HannibalMID	Burnley	1.89	59provisional	1.24	35%	40	034% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.37	79provisional	1.21	34%	47	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lyle FosterFWD	Burnley	2.50	40provisional	1.12	29%	33	041% 130% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Marcus EdwardsFWD	Burnley	2.37	39provisional	1.02	26%	25	044% 129% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
PabloFWD	West Ham United	1.68	55provisional	1.02	27%	10	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Fouls won39 playersHighest: Hannibal, 1.81 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
HannibalMID	Burnley	2.77	59provisional	1.81	51%	40	023% 126% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	2.24	72provisional	1.78	51%	41	021% 128% 223% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	1.92	79provisional	1.69	49%	47	021% 130% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	1.56	86provisional	1.50	44%	61	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jarrod BowenFWD	West Ham United	1.36	89provisional	1.34	38%	72	027% 134% 223% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Zian FlemmingFWD	Burnley	1.52	72provisional	1.21	34%	49	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF	West Ham United	1.35	70provisional	1.05	29%	16	039% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lesley UgochukwuMID	Burnley	1.14	72provisional	0.91	23%	30	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Marcus EdwardsFWD	Burnley	2.01	39provisional	0.87	22%	25	049% 129% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	0.98	75provisional	0.82	20%	18	045% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Cards39 playersHighest: Lucas Paquetá, 0.23 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Lucas PaquetáMID	West Ham United	0.26	79provisional	0.23	20%	47	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
HannibalMID	Burnley	0.31	59provisional	0.20	18%	40	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Edson ÁlvarezMID	West Ham United	0.29	60provisional	0.19	17%	24	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Taty CastellanosFWD	West Ham United	0.21	75provisional	0.18	16%	18	084% 115% 2+1%
Kyle WalkerDEF	Burnley	0.18	87provisional	0.17	16%	35	084% 114% 2+1%
Tomáš SoučekMID	West Ham United	0.20	74provisional	0.16	15%	58	085% 114% 2+1%
Josh CullenMID	Burnley	0.16	86provisional	0.15	14%	61	086% 113% 2+1%
Crysencio SummervilleFWD	West Ham United	0.18	72provisional	0.14	13%	41	087% 112% 2+1%
El Hadji Malick DioufDEF	West Ham United	0.14	86provisional	0.14	13%	31	087% 112% 2+1%
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	0.13	89provisional	0.13	12%	46	088% 111% 2+1%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Alphonse Areola, 3.29 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Alphonse AreolaGK	West Ham United	3.34	89provisional	3.29	61%	46	05% 114% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+14%
Mads HermansenGK	West Ham United	2.93	90provisional	2.93	54%	18	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.