Championship · England
PortsmouthvQueens Park Rangers
Referee
Will Finnie
22 matches on record
Fouls per game
21.2
-6% vs league
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls53 playersHighest: Richard Kone, 1.32 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Richard Koneprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.53
030%133%221%310%44%51%6+1% - Callum Langprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.47
033%132%220%39%44%51%6+0% - Colby Bishopprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.26
034%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Rumarn Burrellprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.49
038%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Gustavo Caballeroprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.46
040%132%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Paul Smythprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.55
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Marlon Packprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.39
044%129%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Jonathan Varaneprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.34
042%132%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Josh Murphyprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.12
040%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Koki Saitoprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.49
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Ebou Adamsprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.12
041%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Michael Freyprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.71
045%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Harvey Valeprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.19
044%132%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Andre Dozzellprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.04
043%134%216%36%42%5+0% - Conor Chaplinprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.29
045%132%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Florian Bianchiniprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.55
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Adrian Segečićprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.31
046%131%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Žan Celarprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.55
048%130%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Amadou Salif Mbengueprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.98
046%133%215%35%41%5+0% - Jimmy Dunneprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.82
045%135%214%34%41%5+0%
20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles53 playersHighest: Ebou Adams, 1.75 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Ebou Adamsprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.75
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 2.03
020%128%224%315%47%53%6+1% - Jonathan Varaneprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.60
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.17
025%129%222%314%46%53%6+1% - Zak Swansonprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.55
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.08
027%128%222%313%46%52%6+1% - Luke Le Rouxprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.54
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.92
029%129%219%312%46%53%6+2% - Harvey Valeprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.48
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.91
028%129%222%313%45%52%6+1% - Jimmy Dunneprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 1.46
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.46
024%134%225%312%44%51%6+0% - Marlon Packprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.45
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 2.00
032%127%220%312%46%52%6+1% - Andre Dozzellprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.35
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.55
028%133%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Jordan Williamsprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.91
032%132%220%310%44%51%6+1% - Ronnie Edwardsprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.31
028%135%222%310%43%51%6+0% - Amadou Salif Mbengueprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.49
030%133%222%310%43%51%6+0% - Nicolas Martin Hautorp Madsenprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.67
031%133%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Ilias Chairprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.78
033%133%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Isaac Haydenprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.14
037%130%218%39%44%52%6+1% - Regan Pooleprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.26
031%135%221%39%43%51%6+0% - John Swiftprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.89
036%130%219%39%44%51%6+0% - Terry Devlinprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.85
038%129%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Karamoko Kader Dembéléprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.89
036%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Connor Ogilvieprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.13
034%136%220%37%42%5+1% - Liam Morrisonprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.08
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.29
037%133%219%38%42%51%6+0%
20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots53 playersHighest: Josh Murphy, 1.98 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Josh Murphyprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.98
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.27
019%126%223%315%49%54%6+4% - Callum Langprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.94
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.31
021%126%222%315%49%54%6+4% - Colby Bishopprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.88
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.08
020%127%223%315%48%54%6+3% - Gustavo Caballeroprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.62
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.30
027%128%220%312%47%53%6+2% - Richard Koneprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.60
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.86
026%130%222%313%46%53%6+2% - Adrian Segečićprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.57
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.35
030%128%219%311%46%53%6+2% - Conor Chaplinprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.56
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.26
028%129%220%312%46%53%6+2% - Florian Bianchiniprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.39
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 2.44
034%128%218%310%45%52%6+2% - Rumarn Burrellprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.39
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.87
032%130%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Koki Saitoprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.80
038%130%217%39%44%51%6+1% - Paul Smythprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.80
037%132%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Ebou Adamsprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.29
037%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Žan Celarprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 2.04
041%130%216%38%43%51%6+1% - John Swiftprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.74
041%129%217%38%43%51%6+1% - Rayan Kolliprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 2.27
039%132%217%37%43%51%6+1% - Michael Freyprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.97
042%129%216%38%43%51%6+1% - Mackenzie Kirkprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 32
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 2.82
050%126%211%36%43%52%6+2% - Jacob Brownprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 32
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 2.53
055%123%210%36%43%52%6+1% - Harvey Valeprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.18
045%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Andre Dozzellprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.04
044%133%216%36%42%50%6+0%
20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target53 playersHighest: Callum Lang, 0.70 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Callum Langprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.70
- O 0.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 0.83
052%131%212%33%41%5+0% - Colby Bishopprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 0.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 0.73
054%132%211%33%41%5+0% - Rumarn Burrellprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 0.89
055%130%211%33%41%5+0% - Josh Murphyprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.61
- O 0.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 0.70
056%131%210%33%41%5+0% - Richard Koneprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.59
- O 0.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 0.69
057%130%210%32%40%5+0% - Gustavo Caballeroprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.55
- O 0.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 0.78
060%128%29%32%40%5+0% - Adrian Segečićprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.52
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.78
062%127%28%32%40%5+0% - Florian Bianchiniprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.52
- O 0.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 0.91
063%126%28%32%40%5+0% - Paul Smythprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.45
- O 0.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 0.69
065%126%27%31%4+0% - Conor Chaplinprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.62
067%125%26%31%4+0% - Mackenzie Kirkprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 32
- Proj.
- 0.39
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.08
072%120%26%32%40%5+0% - Michael Freyprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.38
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.69
071%123%25%31%4+0% - Koki Saitoprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.38
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.58
070%123%25%31%4+0% - Rayan Kolliprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.38
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.78
070%123%25%31%4+0% - Žan Celarprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.69
071%123%25%31%4+0% - John Swiftprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.59
071%123%25%31%4+0% - Jacob Brownprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 32
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.01
074%118%25%32%40%5+0% - Ilias Chairprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.47
074%121%24%3+1% - Ebou Adamsprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.36
074%122%24%3+1% - Harvey Blairprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 29
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.91
076%120%24%31%4+0%
20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won53 playersHighest: Josh Murphy, 1.34 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Josh Murphyprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.54
031%132%220%310%44%52%6+1% - Callum Langprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.54
033%131%220%310%44%52%6+1% - Ebou Adamsprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.18
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.38
035%132%219%39%43%51%6+1% - Paul Smythprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.76
038%132%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Koki Saitoprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.76
039%130%217%38%43%51%6+1% - Colby Bishopprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.24
036%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Gustavo Caballeroprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.46
041%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Richard Koneprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.17
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Adrian Segečićprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.45
044%131%215%37%42%51%6+0% - Karamoko Kader Dembéléprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.61
044%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Jonathan Varaneprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.28
044%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Conor Chaplinprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.34
045%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Connor Ogilvieprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.96
042%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Rumarn Burrellprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.22
045%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Marlon Packprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.23
048%128%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Florian Bianchiniprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.55
048%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Harvey Valeprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.12
047%131%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Rayan Kolliprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.76
048%131%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Andre Dozzellprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.92
048%132%214%34%41%5+0% - Paul Nardiprovisional
· Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.74
049%133%213%34%41%5+0%
20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards53 playersHighest: Marlon Pack, 0.18 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Marlon Packprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.25
084%114%22%3+0% - Andre Dozzellprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Amadou Salif Mbengueprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.18
086%113%2+1% - Jonathan Varaneprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.19
087%112%2+1% - Callum Langprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Ebou Adamsprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.16
088%112%2+1% - Harvey Valeprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.17
088%111%2+1% - Jimmy Dunneprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.13
088%112%2+1% - Terry Devlinprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.21
088%111%2+1% - Ronnie Edwardsprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.13
088%111%2+1% - John Swiftprovisional
MID · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.20
088%111%2+1% - Isaac Haydenprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.22
088%111%2+1% - Liam Morrisonprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Kieran Morganprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.22
089%110%2+1% - Regan Pooleprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%111%2+1% - Richard Koneprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.14
089%111%2+1% - Paul Smythprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.19
089%110%2+1% - Paul Nardiprovisional
· Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.12
089%110%2+1% - Zak Swansonprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.15
089%110%2+1% - Jake Clarke-Salterprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.17
090%110%2+1%
20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves53 playersHighest: Joe Walsh, 3.01 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Joe Walshprovisional
GK · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.01
- O 2.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 3.01
07%116%221%320%415%510%6+11% - Nicolas Schmidprovisional
GK · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 2.39
- O 2.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.44
011%122%224%319%412%56%6+5% - Josef Bursikprovisional
GK · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 2.26
- O 2.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 2.49
013%124%225%318%411%55%6+4% - Paul Nardiprovisional
· Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 2.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 1.30
029%134%222%310%44%51%6+0% - Josh Knightprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.01
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.01
099%1+1% - Nicolas Martin Hautorp Madsenprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.01
0100%1+0% - Ronnie Edwardsprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jimmy Dunneprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Richard Koneprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Steve Cookprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Amadou Salif Mbengueprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Liam Morrisonprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Harvey Valeprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jonathan Varaneprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Rumarn Burrellprovisional
FWD · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jake Clarke-Salterprovisional
DEF · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ilias Chairprovisional
MID · Queens Park Rangers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Regan Pooleprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Connor Ogilvieprovisional
DEF · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Colby Bishopprovisional
FWD · Portsmouth
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.