PER90My betsAccount

Championship · England

PortsmouthvQueens Park Rangers

Fratton Parklineups not announced

Referee

Will Finnie

22 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.2

-6% vs league

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls53 playersHighest: Richard Kone, 1.32 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Richard Kone

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.32
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.53
    030%
    133%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Callum Lang

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.47
    033%
    132%
    220%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Colby Bishop

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.26
    034%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Rumarn Burrell

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.10
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.49
    038%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Gustavo Caballero

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.46
    040%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Paul Smyth

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.55
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marlon Pack

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.39
    044%
    129%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jonathan Varane

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.34
    042%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Josh Murphy

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.12
    040%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Koki Saito

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.49
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ebou Adams

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.12
    041%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Michael Frey

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.71
    045%
    130%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Harvey Vale

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.19
    044%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Andre Dozzell

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.04
    043%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    5+0%
  • Conor Chaplin

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.29
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Florian Bianchini

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.55
    047%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Adrian Segečić

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.31
    046%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Žan Celar

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.55
    048%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Amadou Salif Mbengue

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.98
    046%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jimmy Dunne

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.82
    045%
    135%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles53 playersHighest: Ebou Adams, 1.75 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Ebou Adams

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.75
    O 1.5
    51%
    Model /90
    2.03
    020%
    128%
    224%
    315%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Jonathan Varane

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.60
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    2.17
    025%
    129%
    222%
    314%
    46%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Zak Swanson

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.55
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.08
    027%
    128%
    222%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Luke Le Roux

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    1.54
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.92
    029%
    129%
    219%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Harvey Vale

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.48
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.91
    028%
    129%
    222%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Jimmy Dunne

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    1.46
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.46
    024%
    134%
    225%
    312%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marlon Pack

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.45
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    2.00
    032%
    127%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Andre Dozzell

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.35
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.55
    028%
    133%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jordan Williams

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.91
    032%
    132%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Ronnie Edwards

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    1.28
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.31
    028%
    135%
    222%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Amadou Salif Mbengue

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.27
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.49
    030%
    133%
    222%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Nicolas Martin Hautorp Madsen

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.67
    031%
    133%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ilias Chair

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.78
    033%
    133%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Isaac Hayden

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    2.14
    037%
    130%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Regan Poole

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.26
    031%
    135%
    221%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • John Swift

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.89
    036%
    130%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Terry Devlin

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.17
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.85
    038%
    129%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Karamoko Kader Dembélé

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.12
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.89
    036%
    133%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Connor Ogilvie

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.13
    034%
    136%
    220%
    37%
    42%
    5+1%
  • Liam Morrison

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.08
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.29
    037%
    133%
    219%
    38%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots53 playersHighest: Josh Murphy, 1.98 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Josh Murphy

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.98
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.27
    019%
    126%
    223%
    315%
    49%
    54%
    6+4%
  • Callum Lang

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.94
    O 1.5
    53%
    Model /90
    2.31
    021%
    126%
    222%
    315%
    49%
    54%
    6+4%
  • Colby Bishop

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.88
    O 1.5
    53%
    Model /90
    2.08
    020%
    127%
    223%
    315%
    48%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Gustavo Caballero

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    1.62
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.30
    027%
    128%
    220%
    312%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Richard Kone

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.60
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.86
    026%
    130%
    222%
    313%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Adrian Segečić

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.57
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.35
    030%
    128%
    219%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Conor Chaplin

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.56
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    2.26
    028%
    129%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Florian Bianchini

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    1.39
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    2.44
    034%
    128%
    218%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Rumarn Burrell

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.39
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.87
    032%
    130%
    220%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Koki Saito

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.17
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.80
    038%
    130%
    217%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Paul Smyth

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.17
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.80
    037%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Ebou Adams

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.11
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.29
    037%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Žan Celar

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    1.10
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    2.04
    041%
    130%
    216%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • John Swift

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.74
    041%
    129%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Rayan Kolli

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    2.27
    039%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Michael Frey

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.97
    042%
    129%
    216%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Mackenzie Kirk

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    32
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    2.82
    050%
    126%
    211%
    36%
    43%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Jacob Brown

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    32
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    2.53
    055%
    123%
    210%
    36%
    43%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Harvey Vale

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.18
    045%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Andre Dozzell

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.04
    044%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target53 playersHighest: Callum Lang, 0.70 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Callum Lang

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.70
    O 0.5
    48%
    Model /90
    0.83
    052%
    131%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Colby Bishop

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.66
    O 0.5
    46%
    Model /90
    0.73
    054%
    132%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Rumarn Burrell

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.66
    O 0.5
    45%
    Model /90
    0.89
    055%
    130%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Josh Murphy

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.61
    O 0.5
    44%
    Model /90
    0.70
    056%
    131%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Richard Kone

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.59
    O 0.5
    43%
    Model /90
    0.69
    057%
    130%
    210%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Gustavo Caballero

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.55
    O 0.5
    40%
    Model /90
    0.78
    060%
    128%
    29%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Adrian Segečić

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.52
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.78
    062%
    127%
    28%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Florian Bianchini

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.52
    O 0.5
    37%
    Model /90
    0.91
    063%
    126%
    28%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Paul Smyth

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.45
    O 0.5
    35%
    Model /90
    0.69
    065%
    126%
    27%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Conor Chaplin

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.43
    O 0.5
    33%
    Model /90
    0.62
    067%
    125%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Mackenzie Kirk

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    32
    Proj.
    0.39
    O 0.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.08
    072%
    120%
    26%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Michael Frey

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.38
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.69
    071%
    123%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Koki Saito

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.38
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.58
    070%
    123%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Rayan Kolli

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.38
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.78
    070%
    123%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Žan Celar

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.37
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.69
    071%
    123%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • John Swift

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.37
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.59
    071%
    123%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Jacob Brown

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    32
    Proj.
    0.36
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.01
    074%
    118%
    25%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Ilias Chair

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.32
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.47
    074%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Ebou Adams

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.36
    074%
    122%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Harvey Blair

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    29
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.91
    076%
    120%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won53 playersHighest: Josh Murphy, 1.34 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Josh Murphy

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.54
    031%
    132%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Callum Lang

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.54
    033%
    131%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ebou Adams

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.18
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.38
    035%
    132%
    219%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Paul Smyth

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.76
    038%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Koki Saito

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.76
    039%
    130%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Colby Bishop

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.12
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.24
    036%
    133%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Gustavo Caballero

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.46
    041%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Richard Kone

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.17
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Adrian Segečić

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.45
    044%
    131%
    215%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Karamoko Kader Dembélé

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.61
    044%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jonathan Varane

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.28
    044%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Conor Chaplin

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.34
    045%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Connor Ogilvie

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.96
    042%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Rumarn Burrell

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.22
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marlon Pack

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.23
    048%
    128%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Florian Bianchini

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.55
    048%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Harvey Vale

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.12
    047%
    131%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Rayan Kolli

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.76
    048%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Andre Dozzell

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.92
    048%
    132%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Paul Nardi

    · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.74
    049%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards53 playersHighest: Marlon Pack, 0.18 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • Marlon Pack

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.25
    084%
    114%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Andre Dozzell

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.17
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Amadou Salif Mbengue

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.18
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Jonathan Varane

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.19
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Callum Lang

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Ebou Adams

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.16
    088%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Harvey Vale

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.17
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Jimmy Dunne

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.13
    088%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Terry Devlin

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.21
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Ronnie Edwards

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.13
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • John Swift

    MID · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.20
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Isaac Hayden

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.22
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Liam Morrison

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.15
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Kieran Morgan

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.22
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Regan Poole

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Richard Kone

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.14
    089%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Paul Smyth

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.19
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Paul Nardi

    · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.12
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Zak Swanson

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.15
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Jake Clarke-Salter

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.17
    090%
    110%
    2+1%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves53 playersHighest: Joe Walsh, 3.01 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Joe Walsh

    GK · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    3.01
    O 2.5
    55%
    Model /90
    3.01
    07%
    116%
    221%
    320%
    415%
    510%
    6+11%
  • Nicolas Schmid

    GK · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    2.39
    O 2.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.44
    011%
    122%
    224%
    319%
    412%
    56%
    6+5%
  • Josef Bursik

    GK · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    2.26
    O 2.5
    39%
    Model /90
    2.49
    013%
    124%
    225%
    318%
    411%
    55%
    6+4%
  • Paul Nardi

    · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 2.5
    15%
    Model /90
    1.30
    029%
    134%
    222%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Josh Knight

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.01
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.01
    099%
    1+1%
  • Nicolas Martin Hautorp Madsen

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.01
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ronnie Edwards

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jimmy Dunne

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Richard Kone

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Steve Cook

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Amadou Salif Mbengue

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Liam Morrison

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Harvey Vale

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jonathan Varane

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Rumarn Burrell

    FWD · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jake Clarke-Salter

    DEF · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ilias Chair

    MID · Queens Park Rangers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Regan Poole

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Connor Ogilvie

    DEF · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Colby Bishop

    FWD · Portsmouth

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 53 players shown, ranked by projection.