Championship · England

Wolverhampton WanderersvBlackburn Rovers

Friday 14 August at 20:00Molineux Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Farai Hallam

39 matches on record

Fouls per game

23.0

+2% vs league

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value — 0 live calls · 2 withdrawn

Sean McLoughlinover 0.50 Shots3.00 at PaddyPower · fair 2.46+21.8%withdrawn
Sean McLoughlinover 1.50 Fouls7.00 at Bet365 · fair 6.07+15.4%withdrawn

A withdrawn call is one Per90 no longer stands behind — the rule that published it was later found wrong. It stays here, keeps its price, and is still scored against its closing line; hover it for the reason. Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls49 playersHighest: Lewis Travis, 1.41 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lewis TravisMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.49	85provisional	1.41	41%	38	026% 133% 224% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Yuki OhashiFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.68	69provisional	1.29	36%	71	031% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Makhtar GueyeFWD	Blackburn Rovers	2.85	40provisional	1.26	33%	29	040% 127% 215% 39% 45% 52% 6+2%
Axel HenrikssonMID	Blackburn Rovers	2.64	42provisional	1.22	33%	9	039% 128% 216% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Marshall Nyasha MunetsiMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.50	72provisional	1.21	34%	23	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
André Trindade da Costa NetoMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.34	77provisional	1.15	32%	64	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Hayden CarterDEF	Blackburn Rovers	1.22	83provisional	1.12	31%	26	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan HedgesFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.59	63provisional	1.12	31%	55	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Yerson MosqueraDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.23	81provisional	1.10	30%	31	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Moussa BaradjiMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.72	55provisional	1.04	28%	21	042% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Tackles49 playersHighest: Lewis Travis, 2.67 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lewis TravisMID	Blackburn Rovers	2.84	85provisional	2.67	70%	38	011% 119% 222% 319% 413% 58% 6+8%
André Trindade da Costa NetoMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.79	77provisional	2.39	64%	64	014% 122% 222% 317% 411% 57% 6+6%
Sondre TronstadMID	Blackburn Rovers	2.59	83provisional	2.37	64%	63	013% 123% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+6%
Yerson MosqueraDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.23	81provisional	2.00	56%	31	018% 126% 223% 316% 49% 55% 6+3%
Lewis MillerDEF	Blackburn Rovers	2.39	74provisional	1.97	53%	24	022% 125% 221% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Ryan AlebiousuDEF	Blackburn Rovers	2.07	82provisional	1.89	53%	37	019% 128% 224% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Emmanuel AgbadouDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.97	84provisional	1.83	52%	30	020% 128% 224% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Ryan HedgesFWD	Blackburn Rovers	2.55	63provisional	1.79	49%	55	024% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Hugo BuenoDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.36	68provisional	1.77	48%	28	026% 126% 220% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
Jhon Adolfo Arias AndradeFWD	Wolverhampton Wanderers	3.21	49provisional	1.75	45%	14	031% 124% 217% 312% 48% 54% 6+4%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Shots49 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 1.74 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.91	82provisional	1.74	51%	14	019% 130% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Yuki OhashiFWD	Blackburn Rovers	2.26	69provisional	1.73	49%	71	023% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Mateus ManéMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.37	64provisional	1.69	46%	20	028% 126% 220% 313% 47% 54% 6+2%
Toluwalase Emmanuel ArokodareFWD	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.97	43provisional	1.41	36%	15	038% 126% 215% 39% 46% 53% 6+3%
Marshall Nyasha MunetsiMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.59	72provisional	1.28	36%	23	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Andri Lucas GuojohnsenFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.84	62provisional	1.27	35%	19	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Ryoya MorishitaMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.58	72provisional	1.27	36%	35	031% 134% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Todd CantwellMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.58	70provisional	1.23	34%	54	034% 132% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Makhtar GueyeFWD	Blackburn Rovers	2.58	40provisional	1.14	29%	29	043% 127% 214% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Moussa BaradjiMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.64	55provisional	0.99	27%	21	044% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Fouls won49 playersHighest: Todd Cantwell, 2.11 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Todd CantwellMID	Blackburn Rovers	2.70	70provisional	2.11	57%	54	018% 124% 222% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Lewis TravisMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.71	85provisional	1.61	47%	38	022% 131% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mateus ManéMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.18	64provisional	1.55	43%	20	030% 127% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Jean-Ricner BellegardeMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.79	48provisional	1.50	41%	40	031% 128% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Yerson MosqueraDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.58	81provisional	1.42	41%	31	027% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lewis MillerDEF	Blackburn Rovers	1.58	74provisional	1.30	37%	24	032% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
André Trindade da Costa NetoMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	1.34	77provisional	1.15	32%	64	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Yuri Oliveira RibeiroDEF	Blackburn Rovers	1.33	77provisional	1.14	32%	34	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ryoya MorishitaMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.36	72provisional	1.09	30%	35	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Yuki OhashiFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.31	69provisional	1.00	27%	71	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Cards49 playersHighest: José Pedro Malheiro de Sá, 0.40 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
José Pedro Malheiro de SáGK	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.40	90provisional	0.40	33%	52	067% 126% 25% 3+1%
Yerson MosqueraDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.27	81provisional	0.24	21%	31	079% 119% 22% 3+0%
André Trindade da Costa NetoMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.24	77provisional	0.20	18%	64	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Hayden CarterDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.22	83provisional	0.20	18%	26	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Lewis TravisMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.21	85provisional	0.20	18%	38	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Ladislav KrejčíDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.17	84provisional	0.16	15%	28	085% 114% 2+1%
Tom AtchesonDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.19	78provisional	0.16	15%	13	085% 113% 2+1%
Axel HenrikssonMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.33	42provisional	0.16	14%	9	086% 112% 21% 3+0%
Todd CantwellMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.19	70provisional	0.15	14%	54	086% 113% 2+1%
Sean McLoughlinDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.14	89provisional	0.14	13%	44	087% 112% 2+1%
Tote António GomesDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.16	81provisional	0.14	13%	47	087% 112% 2+1%
Moussa BaradjiMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.23	55provisional	0.14	13%	21	087% 112% 2+1%
Sondre TronstadMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.15	83provisional	0.14	13%	63	087% 112% 2+1%
Marshall Nyasha MunetsiMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.17	72provisional	0.13	12%	23	088% 112% 2+1%
Lewis MillerDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.16	74provisional	0.13	12%	24	088% 111% 2+1%
Santiago Ignacio Bueno SciuttoDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.16	73provisional	0.13	12%	48	088% 111% 2+1%
Jean-Ricner BellegardeMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.23	48provisional	0.12	12%	40	088% 111% 2+1%
Sidnei Wilson Vieira David TavaresMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.25	44provisional	0.12	11%	8	089% 110% 2+1%
Scott WhartonDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.16	67provisional	0.12	11%	10	089% 111% 2+1%
Makhtar GueyeFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.27	40provisional	0.12	11%	29	089% 110% 2+1%
Emmanuel AgbadouDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.12	84provisional	0.12	11%	30	089% 110% 2+1%
Ryan AlebiousuDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.12	82provisional	0.11	11%	37	089% 110% 2+1%
Ryoya MorishitaMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.14	72provisional	0.11	10%	35	090% 110% 2+1%
Dominic HyamDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.11	90provisional	0.11	10%	50	090% 19% 2+1%
Yuki OhashiFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.14	69provisional	0.10	10%	71	090% 19% 2+1%
Ryan HedgesFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.14	63provisional	0.10	9%	55	091% 19% 2+1%
George PrattDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.11	81provisional	0.10	9%	10	091% 19% 2+0%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.11	82provisional	0.10	9%	14	091% 19% 2+0%
Adam ForshawMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.19	45provisional	0.10	9%	21	091% 18% 2+1%
Yuri Oliveira RibeiroDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.11	77provisional	0.09	9%	34	091% 18% 2+0%
Harry PickeringDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.14	59provisional	0.09	8%	22	092% 18% 2+0%
Mateus ManéMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.12	64provisional	0.08	8%	20	092% 18% 2+0%
Hugo BuenoDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.11	68provisional	0.08	8%	28	092% 17% 2+0%
Angel GomesMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.18	39provisional	0.08	7%	7	093% 17% 2+0%
Hee-Chan HwangFWD	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.15	45provisional	0.07	7%	27	093% 17% 2+0%
Jhon Adolfo Arias AndradeFWD	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.13	49provisional	0.07	7%	14	093% 17% 2+0%
David Møller WolfeDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.14	48provisional	0.07	7%	13	093% 16% 2+0%
Jackson TchatchouaDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.11	59provisional	0.07	7%	23	093% 16% 2+0%
Kristi MontgomeryMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.15	39provisional	0.07	6%	12	094% 16% 2+0%
Andri Lucas GuojohnsenFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.09	62provisional	0.06	6%	19	094% 16% 2+0%
Pedro Henrique Cardoso de LimaDEF	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.20	28provisional	0.06	6%	5	094% 16% 2+0%
Augustus KargboFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.14	35provisional	0.05	5%	9	095% 15% 2+0%
Toluwalase Emmanuel ArokodareFWD	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.09	43provisional	0.04	4%	15	096% 14% 2+0%
Dion De NeveMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.10	36provisional	0.04	4%	11	096% 14% 2+0%
Rodrigo Martins GomesMID	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.09	38provisional	0.04	4%	20	096% 1+4%
Mathias JörgensenFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.05	55provisional	0.03	3%	13	097% 1+3%
Sam JohnstoneGK	Wolverhampton Wanderers	0.03	90provisional	0.03	3%	19	097% 1+3%
Balázs TóthGK	Blackburn Rovers	0.02	90provisional	0.02	2%	40	098% 1+2%
Aynsley PearsGK	Blackburn Rovers	0.01	88provisional	0.01	1%	52	099% 1+1%

All 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves4 playersHighest: Balázs Tóth, 3.09 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Balázs TóthGK	Blackburn Rovers	3.09	90provisional	3.09	57%	40	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Aynsley PearsGK	Blackburn Rovers	2.93	88provisional	2.87	53%	52	09% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Sam JohnstoneGK	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.56	90provisional	2.56	46%	19	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
José Pedro Malheiro de SáGK	Wolverhampton Wanderers	2.37	90provisional	2.37	41%	52	011% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.