La Liga · Spain

ValenciavReal Betis

Tuesday 25 August at 20:00Estadio de Mestallalineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260815-1512 · Tackles v20260815-1512 · Shots v20260815-1512 · Fouls won v20260815-1512 · Cards v20260815-1512 · Saves v20260815-1512

Model projections

Fouls47 playersHighest: César Tárrega, 1.43 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
César TárregaDEF	Valencia	1.51	85provisional	1.43	42%	63	026% 133% 224% 312% 44% 51% 6+0%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	1.88	68provisional	1.43	41%	36	028% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	2.64	48provisional	1.41	38%	20	032% 129% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	1.55	82provisional	1.40	41%	15	027% 132% 223% 311% 45% 51% 6+1%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.60	76provisional	1.36	39%	15	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
José GayàDEF	Valencia	1.26	78provisional	1.09	30%	51	035% 135% 220% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	1.50	62provisional	1.03	28%	56	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	1.62	56provisional	1.02	27%	40	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
José CopeteDEF	Valencia	1.07	84provisional	0.99	26%	20	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	1.76	51provisional	0.99	26%	19	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Tackles47 playersHighest: José Gayà, 1.46 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
José GayàDEF	Valencia	1.69	78provisional	1.46	41%	51	027% 132% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	1.55	82provisional	1.41	40%	15	030% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	2.00	56provisional	1.25	34%	40	036% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ángel OrtizDEF	Real Betis	2.07	52provisional	1.20	32%	11	042% 126% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Junior FirpoDEF	Real Betis	1.43	69provisional	1.10	30%	10	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	1.61	56provisional	1.00	26%	37	044% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	1.30	68provisional	0.99	26%	36	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	1.09	76provisional	0.92	24%	15	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Dimitri FoulquierDEF	Valencia	1.11	73provisional	0.91	24%	39	045% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
César TárregaDEF	Valencia	0.94	85provisional	0.89	23%	63	044% 134% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Shots47 playersHighest: Cucho Hernández, 2.30 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	2.59	80provisional	2.30	65%	47	012% 123% 225% 319% 411% 56% 6+4%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	2.46	78provisional	2.13	60%	47	015% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.38	70provisional	1.84	52%	54	021% 127% 223% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	2.59	51provisional	1.46	40%	19	030% 129% 220% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	2.72	48provisional	1.45	39%	20	032% 129% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	2.08	62provisional	1.44	40%	56	030% 130% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.13	59provisional	1.40	39%	23	031% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Arnaut DanjumaFWD	Valencia	2.23	54provisional	1.34	37%	21	034% 129% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	1.82	58provisional	1.18	32%	40	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Diego LópezFWD	Valencia	1.63	63provisional	1.14	32%	58	037% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Fouls won47 playersHighest: Giovani Lo Celso, 2.01 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	3.11	58provisional	2.01	55%	40	019% 126% 222% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.22	70provisional	1.72	49%	54	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
IscoMID	Real Betis	2.49	59provisional	1.64	45%	23	027% 128% 220% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	1.58	82provisional	1.43	41%	15	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	1.65	78provisional	1.43	41%	47	026% 133% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	1.96	62provisional	1.35	38%	56	031% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	2.35	51provisional	1.32	36%	19	033% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
André AlmeidaMID	Valencia	1.74	54provisional	1.04	28%	40	042% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	1.16	80provisional	1.03	28%	47	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	1.58	56provisional	0.99	26%	40	042% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Cards47 playersHighest: Guido Rodríguez, 0.24 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	0.27	82provisional	0.24	21%	15	079% 119% 22% 3+0%
Sofyan AmrabatMID	Real Betis	0.27	76provisional	0.23	20%	15	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
César TárregaDEF	Valencia	0.24	85provisional	0.23	20%	63	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
José CopeteDEF	Valencia	0.22	84provisional	0.20	18%	20	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
José GayàDEF	Valencia	0.23	78provisional	0.20	18%	51	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	0.25	67provisional	0.19	17%	20	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
NatanDEF	Real Betis	0.20	78provisional	0.17	16%	57	084% 114% 2+1%
Marc RocaMID	Real Betis	0.22	68provisional	0.17	15%	36	085% 114% 2+1%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	0.32	48provisional	0.17	15%	20	085% 114% 21% 3+0%
PepeluMID	Valencia	0.25	61provisional	0.17	15%	46	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
Diego LlorenteDEF	Real Betis	0.19	78provisional	0.17	15%	45	085% 114% 2+1%
Aitor RuibalFWD	Real Betis	0.24	56provisional	0.15	13%	37	087% 112% 2+1%
Dimitri FoulquierDEF	Valencia	0.18	73provisional	0.15	14%	39	086% 112% 2+1%
Sergi AltimiraMID	Real Betis	0.23	56provisional	0.15	13%	40	087% 112% 2+1%
Junior FirpoDEF	Real Betis	0.19	69provisional	0.15	13%	10	087% 112% 2+1%
AntonyFWD	Real Betis	0.17	78provisional	0.14	13%	47	087% 112% 2+1%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	0.20	62provisional	0.14	13%	56	087% 112% 2+1%
Baptiste SantamariaMID	Valencia	0.31	39provisional	0.14	12%	8	088% 111% 21% 3+0%
IscoMID	Real Betis	0.21	59provisional	0.14	13%	23	087% 112% 2+1%
Ángel OrtizDEF	Real Betis	0.23	52provisional	0.13	12%	11	088% 111% 2+1%
Marc BartraDEF	Real Betis	0.14	82provisional	0.13	12%	48	088% 111% 2+1%
Mouctar DiakhabyDEF	Valencia	0.20	57provisional	0.13	12%	14	088% 111% 2+1%
Javi GuerraMID	Valencia	0.18	65provisional	0.13	12%	59	088% 111% 2+1%
Nelson DeossaMID	Real Betis	0.31	37provisional	0.12	11%	9	089% 110% 2+1%
Filip UgrinicMID	Valencia	0.19	56provisional	0.12	11%	19	089% 110% 2+1%
Abde EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	0.14	70provisional	0.11	10%	54	090% 110% 2+1%
Héctor BellerínDEF	Real Betis	0.14	67provisional	0.10	10%	29	090% 19% 2+1%
Cucho HernándezFWD	Real Betis	0.12	80provisional	0.10	10%	47	090% 19% 2+1%
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	0.18	51provisional	0.10	9%	19	091% 19% 2+1%
Cédric BakambuFWD	Real Betis	0.30	30provisional	0.10	9%	15	091% 19% 2+1%
Jesús VázquezDEF	Valencia	0.19	44provisional	0.09	9%	22	091% 18% 2+1%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	0.14	58provisional	0.09	9%	40	091% 18% 2+0%
Diego LópezFWD	Valencia	0.13	63provisional	0.09	9%	58	091% 18% 2+0%
Chimy ÁvilaFWD	Real Betis	0.27	30provisional	0.09	8%	14	092% 18% 2+1%
Pablo FornalsMID	Real Betis	0.11	74provisional	0.09	8%	59	092% 18% 2+0%
Sergi CanósFWD	Valencia	0.36	22provisional	0.09	8%	3	092% 18% 2+0%
Luis RiojaFWD	Valencia	0.10	75provisional	0.08	8%	69	092% 18% 2+0%
André AlmeidaMID	Valencia	0.14	54provisional	0.08	8%	40	092% 18% 2+0%
Arnaut DanjumaFWD	Valencia	0.14	54provisional	0.08	8%	21	092% 17% 2+0%
Ricardo RodríguezDEF	Real Betis	0.10	69provisional	0.08	7%	35	093% 17% 2+0%
Pablo GarcíaFWD	Real Betis	0.29	23provisional	0.08	7%	5	093% 17% 2+0%
Rodrigo RiquelmeFWD	Real Betis	0.20	32provisional	0.07	7%	10	093% 17% 2+0%
Dani RabaFWD	Valencia	0.24	20provisional	0.05	5%	2	095% 15% 2+0%
Iker LosadaFWD	Real Betis	0.13	34provisional	0.05	5%	5	095% 15% 2+0%
AdriánGK	Real Betis	0.02	90provisional	0.02	2%	20	098% 1+2%
Stole DimitrievskiGK	Valencia	0.02	90provisional	0.02	2%	24	098% 1+2%
Álvaro VallesGK	Real Betis	0.02	90provisional	0.02	2%	28	098% 1+2%

All 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves3 playersHighest: Álvaro Valles, 3.06 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Álvaro VallesGK	Real Betis	3.06	90provisional	3.06	57%	28	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
AdriánGK	Real Betis	2.91	90provisional	2.91	54%	20	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Stole DimitrievskiGK	Valencia	2.47	90provisional	2.47	44%	24	010% 122% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+5%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.