La Liga · Spain

ValenciavReal Betis

Tuesday 25 August at 20:00Estadio de Mestallalineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls43 playersHighest: César Tárrega Requeni, 1.42 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
César Tárrega RequeniDEF	Valencia	1.50	85provisional	1.42	41%	63	026% 133% 223% 312% 44% 51% 6+0%
Umar Sadiq MesbahFWD	Valencia	2.63	48provisional	1.40	38%	20	032% 129% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	1.54	82provisional	1.40	40%	15	028% 132% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Marc Roca JunquéMID	Real Betis	1.84	68provisional	1.39	40%	36	029% 131% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
José Luis Gayá PeñaDEF	Valencia	1.25	78provisional	1.08	30%	51	035% 136% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Hugo Duro PeralesFWD	Valencia	1.49	62provisional	1.03	28%	56	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID	Real Betis	1.47	63provisional	1.03	28%	24	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
José Manuel Arias CopeteDEF	Valencia	1.06	84provisional	0.99	26%	20	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
José Luis García VayáMID	Valencia	1.42	61provisional	0.97	26%	46	044% 130% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Diego Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	1.30	67provisional	0.97	26%	20	044% 130% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Tackles43 playersHighest: Guido Rodríguez, 2.24 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	2.47	82provisional	2.24	60%	15	016% 123% 222% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
José Luis Gayá PeñaDEF	Valencia	2.56	78provisional	2.21	61%	51	015% 124% 223% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID	Real Betis	2.95	63provisional	2.06	54%	24	021% 125% 220% 314% 49% 55% 6+5%
Héctor Junior Firpo AdamesDEF	Real Betis	2.47	69provisional	1.90	53%	10	021% 127% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Ángel Ortiz MonterreyDEF	Real Betis	3.24	52provisional	1.87	47%	11	031% 122% 216% 312% 48% 55% 6+6%
Ricardo Iván Rodríguez ArayaDEF	Real Betis	2.22	64provisional	1.57	44%	18	028% 128% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Marc Bartra AregallDEF	Real Betis	1.70	82provisional	1.54	44%	48	025% 131% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
José Luis García VayáMID	Valencia	2.25	61provisional	1.53	42%	46	033% 126% 218% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Diego Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	2.03	67provisional	1.51	41%	20	032% 126% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Marc Roca JunquéMID	Real Betis	1.97	68provisional	1.50	42%	36	029% 129% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Shots43 playersHighest: Juan Camilo Hernández Suárez, 2.26 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Juan Camilo Hernández SuárezFWD	Real Betis	2.54	80provisional	2.26	64%	47	012% 124% 225% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%
Antony Matheus dos SantosFWD	Real Betis	2.41	78provisional	2.09	59%	47	015% 125% 225% 317% 410% 55% 6+3%
Abdessamad EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.33	70provisional	1.80	51%	54	021% 128% 223% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Umar Sadiq MesbahFWD	Valencia	2.67	48provisional	1.42	38%	20	033% 129% 218% 310% 45% 53% 6+2%
Hugo Duro PeralesFWD	Valencia	2.05	62provisional	1.42	40%	56	030% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Francisco Román Alarcón SuárezMID	Real Betis	2.09	59provisional	1.38	38%	23	032% 130% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Arnaut Danjuma GroeneveldFWD	Valencia	2.20	54provisional	1.32	36%	21	034% 129% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	1.79	58provisional	1.16	32%	40	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Diego López NoguerolFWD	Valencia	1.62	63provisional	1.13	31%	58	037% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luis Jesús Rioja GonzálezFWD	Valencia	1.34	75provisional	1.12	31%	69	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Fouls won43 playersHighest: Giovani Lo Celso, 1.97 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Giovani Lo CelsoMID	Real Betis	3.05	58provisional	1.97	54%	40	020% 126% 222% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Abdessamad EzzalzouliFWD	Real Betis	2.18	70provisional	1.68	48%	54	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Francisco Román Alarcón SuárezMID	Real Betis	2.43	59provisional	1.60	44%	23	027% 129% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	1.57	82provisional	1.43	41%	15	028% 132% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Antony Matheus dos SantosFWD	Real Betis	1.62	78provisional	1.41	40%	47	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Hugo Duro PeralesFWD	Valencia	1.94	62provisional	1.34	37%	56	032% 131% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Domingos André Ribeiro AlmeidaMID	Valencia	1.72	54provisional	1.03	28%	40	042% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID	Real Betis	1.47	63provisional	1.02	27%	24	040% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Juan Camilo Hernández SuárezFWD	Real Betis	1.14	80provisional	1.01	27%	47	038% 135% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Diego López NoguerolFWD	Valencia	1.32	63provisional	0.92	24%	58	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Cards43 playersHighest: Guido Rodríguez, 0.23 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	0.26	82provisional	0.23	21%	15	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
César Tárrega RequeniDEF	Valencia	0.24	85provisional	0.23	20%	63	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
José Luis Gayá PeñaDEF	Valencia	0.23	78provisional	0.20	18%	51	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
José Manuel Arias CopeteDEF	Valencia	0.21	84provisional	0.20	18%	20	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Diego Valentín GómezDEF	Real Betis	0.24	67provisional	0.18	16%	20	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Umar Sadiq MesbahFWD	Valencia	0.32	48provisional	0.17	15%	20	085% 114% 21% 3+0%
Natan Bernardo de SouzaDEF	Real Betis	0.19	78provisional	0.17	15%	57	085% 114% 2+1%
José Luis García VayáMID	Valencia	0.24	61provisional	0.16	15%	46	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
Diego Javier Llorente RíosDEF	Real Betis	0.18	78provisional	0.16	15%	45	085% 114% 2+1%
Marc Roca JunquéMID	Real Betis	0.21	68provisional	0.16	15%	36	085% 113% 2+1%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Álvaro Vallés Rosa, 3.09 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Álvaro Vallés RosaGK	Real Betis	3.09	90provisional	3.09	57%	28	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Stole DimitrievskiGK	Valencia	2.42	90provisional	2.42	43%	24	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.