La Liga · Spain

ElchevFC Barcelona

Sunday 23 August at 20:30Estadio Manuel Martínez Valeroexpected lineup

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

opponentElche concede 16.1 fouls a game — 1st most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. Good news for FC Barcelona's foul-drawers.
opponentElche concede 20.0 tackles a game — 1st most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. Good news for FC Barcelona's tacklers.
opponentFC Barcelona concede 2.7 shots on target a game — 23rd most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. A hard place to get shots on target.
opponentFC Barcelona concede 8.6 shots a game — 23rd most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. A hard place to get shots.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 4 live calls

Pau Cubarsíover 1.50 Tackles2.50 at bet365 · fair 2.20+13.6%
Jules Koundéover 0.50 Fouls1.61 at bet365 · fair 1.44+12.2%
Eric Garcíaover 1.50 Fouls2.20 at bet365 · fair 2.00+10.0%
Germán Valeraover 1.50 Fouls2.20 at bet365 · fair 2.05+7.3%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls45 playersHighest: Buba Sangaré, 1.59 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Buba SangaréDEF	Elche	2.15	60provisional	1.59	46%	13	024% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
GaviMID	FC Barcelona	2.02	57provisional	1.42	41%	37	028% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Fermín LópezMID	FC Barcelona	1.88	61provisional	1.41	40%	58	027% 133% 223% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lamine YamalFWD	FC Barcelona	1.28	83provisional	1.20	34%	63	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marc BernalMID	FC Barcelona	1.76	55provisional	1.20	34%	25	034% 132% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Víctor ChustDEF	Elche	1.26	76provisional	1.10	30%	32	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gonzalo VillarMID	Elche	1.33	69provisional	1.09	30%	13	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Marc CasadóMID	FC Barcelona	1.98	40provisional	1.06	28%	47	040% 132% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Eric GarcíaDEF	FC Barcelona	1.22	74provisional	1.05	28%	63	037% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
RodriMID	—	1.23	71provisional	1.03	28%	24	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Shots45 playersHighest: Lamine Yamal, 3.36 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lamine YamalFWD	FC Barcelona	3.61	83provisional	3.36	81%	63	05% 113% 219% 320% 416% 512% 6+15%
RaphinhaFWD	FC Barcelona	3.20	65provisional	2.42	64%	58	014% 122% 222% 317% 412% 57% 6+6%
Robert LewandowskiFWD	FC Barcelona	2.78	72provisional	2.31	63%	65	014% 123% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+5%
Fermín LópezMID	FC Barcelona	2.63	61provisional	1.91	54%	58	019% 127% 223% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Anthony GordonFWD	—	2.01	74provisional	1.71	50%	60	021% 130% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Ferran TorresFWD	FC Barcelona	2.65	50provisional	1.62	45%	60	026% 129% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Dani OlmoMID	FC Barcelona	2.32	54provisional	1.52	43%	58	027% 131% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
André SilvaFWD	Elche	2.14	50provisional	1.29	35%	46	035% 130% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Roony BardghjiFWD	FC Barcelona	2.11	37provisional	1.00	26%	21	043% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Karim AdeyemiFWD	—	2.07	38provisional	0.99	26%	53	044% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Shots on target45 playersHighest: Lamine Yamal, 1.11 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Lamine YamalFWD	FC Barcelona	1.19	83provisional	1.11	65%	63	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Robert LewandowskiFWD	FC Barcelona	1.19	72provisional	0.99	60%	65	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
RaphinhaFWD	FC Barcelona	1.19	65provisional	0.90	57%	58	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ferran TorresFWD	FC Barcelona	1.28	50provisional	0.78	51%	60	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Fermín LópezMID	FC Barcelona	1.00	61provisional	0.72	50%	58	050% 133% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Anthony GordonFWD	—	0.74	74provisional	0.63	46%	60	054% 132% 211% 32% 4+1%
André SilvaFWD	Elche	1.00	50provisional	0.60	42%	46	058% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Dani OlmoMID	FC Barcelona	0.80	54provisional	0.53	39%	58	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Roony BardghjiFWD	FC Barcelona	0.89	37provisional	0.42	32%	21	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Karim AdeyemiFWD	—	0.74	38provisional	0.35	28%	53	072% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Facundo BuonanotteMID	—	0.65	36provisional	0.30	25%	35	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Lucas CepedaFWD	Elche	0.72	31provisional	0.30	25%	11	075% 120% 24% 31% 4+0%
Germán ValeraFWD	Elche	0.30	75provisional	0.25	22%	45	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Tete MorenteFWD	Elche	0.35	58provisional	0.24	21%	61	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Grady DianganaFWD	Elche	0.35	56provisional	0.24	21%	54	079% 118% 22% 3+0%
PedriMID	FC Barcelona	0.28	66provisional	0.21	19%	66	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
RodriMID	—	0.25	71provisional	0.21	18%	24	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Eric GarcíaDEF	FC Barcelona	0.22	74provisional	0.18	17%	63	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Gonzalo VillarMID	Elche	0.20	69provisional	0.16	15%	13	085% 113% 2+1%
João CanceloDEF	FC Barcelona	0.23	55provisional	0.15	14%	16	086% 113% 2+1%
Jules KoundéDEF	FC Barcelona	0.15	81provisional	0.14	13%	62	087% 112% 2+1%
Héctor FortDEF	Elche	0.27	39provisional	0.13	12%	31	088% 111% 2+1%
Marc BernalMID	FC Barcelona	0.19	55provisional	0.13	12%	25	088% 111% 2+1%
David AffengruberDEF	Elche	0.12	83provisional	0.12	11%	37	089% 110% 2+1%
Martim NetoMID	Elche	0.17	52provisional	0.11	10%	26	090% 110% 2+1%
Pedro BigasDEF	Elche	0.11	77provisional	0.10	9%	28	091% 19% 2+0%
Gerard MartínDEF	FC Barcelona	0.13	63provisional	0.09	9%	60	091% 18% 2+0%
JosanFWD	Elche	0.26	25provisional	0.09	9%	19	091% 18% 2+1%
Víctor ChustDEF	Elche	0.10	76provisional	0.09	8%	32	092% 18% 2+0%
Andreas ChristensenDEF	FC Barcelona	0.21	28provisional	0.08	8%	18	092% 17% 2+0%
GaviMID	FC Barcelona	0.12	57provisional	0.08	8%	37	092% 17% 2+0%
Frenkie de JongMID	FC Barcelona	0.15	42provisional	0.08	8%	51	092% 17% 2+0%
Alejandro BaldeDEF	FC Barcelona	0.10	63provisional	0.08	7%	60	093% 17% 2+0%
Marc CasadóMID	FC Barcelona	0.14	40provisional	0.07	7%	47	093% 17% 2+0%
Marc AguadoMID	Elche	0.08	75provisional	0.07	7%	36	093% 17% 2+0%
Pau CubarsíDEF	FC Barcelona	0.07	82provisional	0.06	6%	66	094% 16% 2+0%
Federico RedondoMID	Elche	0.15	32provisional	0.06	6%	12	094% 16% 2+0%
Léo PétrotDEF	Elche	0.09	48provisional	0.05	5%	32	095% 15% 2+0%
Buba SangaréDEF	Elche	0.08	60provisional	0.05	5%	13	095% 15% 2+0%
John DonaldDEF	Elche	0.15	25provisional	0.05	5%	21	095% 15% 2+0%
Joan GarcíaGK	FC Barcelona	0.01	89provisional	0.01	1%	68	099% 1+1%
Wojciech SzczesnyGK	FC Barcelona	0.00	88provisional	0.00	0%	23	0100% 1+0%
Marc-André ter StegenGK	FC Barcelona	0.00	83provisional	0.00	0%	10	0100% 1+0%
Matías DituroGK	Elche	0.00	88provisional	0.00	0%	23	0100% 1+0%
Iñaki PeñaGK	Elche	0.00	87provisional	0.00	0%	32	0100% 1+0%

All 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won45 playersHighest: Lamine Yamal, 1.76 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lamine YamalFWD	FC Barcelona	1.90	83provisional	1.76	51%	63	019% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Gonzalo VillarMID	Elche	2.17	69provisional	1.72	49%	13	023% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Anthony GordonFWD	—	2.04	74provisional	1.72	50%	60	020% 130% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Germán ValeraFWD	Elche	1.73	75provisional	1.47	42%	45	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
RodriMID	—	1.65	71provisional	1.34	38%	24	029% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
GaviMID	FC Barcelona	2.01	57provisional	1.34	38%	37	032% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
PedriMID	FC Barcelona	1.69	66provisional	1.30	36%	66	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Dani OlmoMID	FC Barcelona	1.76	54provisional	1.13	31%	58	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Grady DianganaFWD	Elche	1.56	56provisional	1.03	28%	54	039% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Robert LewandowskiFWD	FC Barcelona	1.22	72provisional	1.01	27%	65	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Saves5 playersHighest: Iñaki Peña, 3.13 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Iñaki PeñaGK	Elche	3.22	87provisional	3.13	58%	32	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Joan GarcíaGK	FC Barcelona	3.08	89provisional	3.05	56%	68	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Wojciech SzczesnyGK	FC Barcelona	3.02	88provisional	2.97	55%	23	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%
Matías DituroGK	Elche	2.99	88provisional	2.94	54%	23	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%
Marc-André ter StegenGK	FC Barcelona	2.66	83provisional	2.50	44%	10	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.