La Liga · Spain

ElchevFC Barcelona

Sunday 23 August at 20:30Estadio Manuel Martínez Valerolineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls40 playersHighest: Gavi, 1.37 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
GaviMID	FC Barcelona	2.72	45provisional	1.37	38%	21	036% 126% 217% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Buba SangaréDEF	Elche	2.69	45provisional	1.35	38%	7	036% 126% 218% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Marc CasadóMID	FC Barcelona	2.17	55provisional	1.33	37%	33	035% 128% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Tete MorenteFWD	Elche	1.67	72provisional	1.33	38%	11	029% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Fermín LópezMID	FC Barcelona	2.25	53provisional	1.31	37%	40	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Víctor ChustDEF	Elche	1.49	70provisional	1.16	32%	27	036% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lamine YamalFWD	FC Barcelona	1.18	82provisional	1.07	29%	62	035% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Germán ValeraFWD	Elche	1.19	80provisional	1.06	29%	33	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Dani OlmoMID	FC Barcelona	1.67	57provisional	1.05	28%	43	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Marc BernalMID	FC Barcelona	2.28	41provisional	1.04	28%	12	044% 128% 215% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Tackles40 playersHighest: Víctor Chust, 2.00 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Víctor ChustDEF	Elche	2.57	70provisional	2.00	53%	27	022% 125% 220% 314% 49% 55% 6+5%
David AffengruberDEF	Elche	2.15	82provisional	1.96	55%	35	018% 127% 223% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Jules KoundéDEF	FC Barcelona	2.18	78provisional	1.90	53%	55	021% 126% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Eric GarcíaDEF	FC Barcelona	2.36	68provisional	1.79	49%	51	025% 127% 221% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
PedriMID	FC Barcelona	2.11	76provisional	1.78	50%	61	022% 128% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
João CanceloDEF	FC Barcelona	2.42	60provisional	1.60	43%	10	030% 126% 219% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Marc AguadoMID	Elche	1.91	72provisional	1.53	43%	31	027% 130% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Germán ValeraFWD	Elche	1.71	80provisional	1.52	43%	33	027% 130% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Marc CasadóMID	FC Barcelona	2.41	55provisional	1.48	40%	33	034% 126% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Buba SangaréDEF	Elche	2.92	45provisional	1.47	40%	7	036% 124% 217% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Shots40 playersHighest: Lamine Yamal, 3.55 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lamine YamalFWD	FC Barcelona	3.91	82provisional	3.55	82%	62	05% 112% 217% 319% 416% 512% 6+18%
RaphinhaFWD	FC Barcelona	3.39	73provisional	2.75	71%	54	010% 119% 221% 319% 414% 59% 6+9%
Robert LewandowskiFWD	FC Barcelona	3.28	67provisional	2.43	63%	50	016% 121% 220% 317% 412% 57% 6+7%
Ferran TorresFWD	FC Barcelona	3.37	51provisional	1.92	51%	40	023% 126% 220% 314% 49% 55% 6+4%
Dani OlmoMID	FC Barcelona	2.85	57provisional	1.80	50%	43	022% 128% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Fermín LópezMID	FC Barcelona	2.90	53provisional	1.70	47%	40	025% 129% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
André SilvaFWD	Elche	2.50	60provisional	1.66	46%	22	029% 125% 220% 313% 47% 54% 6+2%
Tete MorenteFWD	Elche	1.36	72provisional	1.08	30%	11	037% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lucas CepedaFWD	Elche	2.21	40provisional	0.98	25%	4	048% 127% 213% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Germán ValeraFWD	Elche	1.08	80provisional	0.96	25%	33	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Grady DianganaFWD	Elche	1.53	47provisional	0.79	20%	13	049% 131% 213% 35% 41% 5+0%
Roony BardghjiFWD	FC Barcelona	2.28	31provisional	0.77	19%	8	053% 128% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
PedriMID	FC Barcelona	0.77	76provisional	0.65	14%	61	054% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
João CanceloDEF	FC Barcelona	0.84	60provisional	0.56	12%	10	060% 128% 29% 32% 4+1%
Eric GarcíaDEF	FC Barcelona	0.70	68provisional	0.53	11%	51	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Gonzalo VillarMID	Elche	0.78	60provisional	0.52	11%	8	062% 127% 28% 32% 4+0%
JosanFWD	Elche	1.55	29provisional	0.50	11%	5	065% 124% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Marc CasadóMID	FC Barcelona	0.77	55provisional	0.47	10%	33	065% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Martim NetoMID	Elche	0.78	54provisional	0.47	9%	20	064% 127% 27% 31% 4+0%
Jules KoundéDEF	FC Barcelona	0.53	78provisional	0.46	9%	55	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
GaviMID	FC Barcelona	0.74	45provisional	0.37	7%	21	071% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
David AffengruberDEF	Elche	0.39	82provisional	0.35	5%	35	071% 124% 25% 3+1%
Alejandro BaldeDEF	FC Barcelona	0.46	69provisional	0.35	5%	53	071% 124% 25% 3+1%
Pedro BigasDEF	Elche	0.41	74provisional	0.34	5%	25	072% 123% 24% 3+1%
Marc BernalMID	FC Barcelona	0.74	41provisional	0.34	6%	12	073% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Frenkie de JongMID	FC Barcelona	0.54	54provisional	0.33	5%	37	073% 121% 24% 31% 4+0%
Víctor ChustDEF	Elche	0.38	70provisional	0.29	4%	27	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Pau CubarsíDEF	FC Barcelona	0.32	81provisional	0.29	4%	63	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Gerard MartínDEF	FC Barcelona	0.44	53provisional	0.26	4%	40	078% 118% 23% 3+0%
Héctor FortDEF	Elche	0.66	35provisional	0.26	4%	7	079% 117% 23% 3+1%
Léo PétrotDEF	Elche	0.44	49provisional	0.24	3%	19	080% 117% 23% 3+0%
Buba SangaréDEF	Elche	0.44	45provisional	0.22	3%	7	081% 116% 22% 3+0%
John DonaldDEF	Elche	0.61	31provisional	0.21	3%	7	083% 114% 23% 3+1%
Marc AguadoMID	Elche	0.26	72provisional	0.20	2%	31	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Andreas ChristensenDEF	FC Barcelona	0.49	36provisional	0.20	3%	7	083% 114% 22% 3+0%
Federico RedondoMID	Elche	0.91	16provisional	0.16	2%	2	086% 112% 22% 3+0%
Wojciech SzczesnyGK	FC Barcelona	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	23	0100% 1+0%
Joan GarcíaGK	FC Barcelona	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	30	0100% 1+0%
Iñaki PeñaGK	Elche	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	16	0100% 1+0%
Matías DituroGK	Elche	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	22	0100% 1+0%

All 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Fouls won40 playersHighest: Lamine Yamal, 1.85 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lamine YamalFWD	FC Barcelona	2.04	82provisional	1.85	53%	62	018% 128% 225% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Germán ValeraFWD	Elche	2.00	80provisional	1.77	51%	33	021% 128% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+2%
PedriMID	FC Barcelona	1.73	76provisional	1.46	42%	61	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gonzalo VillarMID	Elche	2.17	60provisional	1.44	40%	8	032% 128% 219% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Dani OlmoMID	FC Barcelona	1.94	57provisional	1.22	34%	43	034% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Marc CasadóMID	FC Barcelona	1.87	55provisional	1.15	32%	33	040% 129% 217% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
André SilvaFWD	Elche	1.61	60provisional	1.07	29%	22	041% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
GaviMID	FC Barcelona	2.12	45provisional	1.06	29%	21	044% 127% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Alejandro BaldeDEF	FC Barcelona	1.37	69provisional	1.06	29%	53	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Robert LewandowskiFWD	FC Barcelona	1.32	67provisional	0.98	26%	50	042% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Cards40 playersHighest: Víctor Chust, 0.22 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Víctor ChustDEF	Elche	0.29	70provisional	0.22	20%	27	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Buba SangaréDEF	Elche	0.42	45provisional	0.21	18%	7	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
GaviMID	FC Barcelona	0.39	45provisional	0.19	17%	21	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
David AffengruberDEF	Elche	0.21	82provisional	0.19	17%	35	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
Marc BernalMID	FC Barcelona	0.41	41provisional	0.19	16%	12	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Marc CasadóMID	FC Barcelona	0.30	55provisional	0.18	16%	33	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Eric GarcíaDEF	FC Barcelona	0.23	68provisional	0.17	16%	51	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Fermín LópezMID	FC Barcelona	0.28	53provisional	0.16	15%	40	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
Pedro BigasDEF	Elche	0.20	74provisional	0.16	15%	25	085% 113% 2+1%
Jules KoundéDEF	FC Barcelona	0.18	78provisional	0.16	15%	55	085% 113% 2+1%

10 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 40 →

Saves4 playersHighest: Joan García, 2.88 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Joan GarcíaGK	FC Barcelona	2.88	90provisional	2.88	53%	30	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Iñaki PeñaGK	Elche	2.81	90provisional	2.81	51%	16	08% 118% 223% 320% 414% 59% 6+8%
Wojciech SzczesnyGK	FC Barcelona	2.69	90provisional	2.69	49%	23	09% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+7%
Matías DituroGK	Elche	2.67	90provisional	2.67	48%	22	09% 119% 223% 320% 414% 58% 6+7%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.