La Liga · Spain

Celta de VigovAthletic Club

Sunday 30 August at 20:30Abanca-Balaídoslineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls46 playersHighest: Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, 1.64 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Iñigo Ruiz de GalarretaMID	Athletic Club	2.38	62provisional	1.64	48%	56	022% 131% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mikel JauregizarMID	Athletic Club	1.76	73provisional	1.42	41%	62	027% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Yoel LagoDEF	Celta de Vigo	1.55	78provisional	1.34	39%	18	030% 131% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Beñat PradosMID	Athletic Club	2.13	57provisional	1.34	38%	25	031% 131% 221% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Gorka GuruzetaFWD	Athletic Club	2.01	59provisional	1.33	37%	58	031% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Alejandro RegoMID	Athletic Club	2.59	44provisional	1.26	34%	16	036% 131% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Dani VivianDEF	Athletic Club	1.17	82provisional	1.07	29%	59	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ilaix MoribaMID	Celta de Vigo	1.41	67provisional	1.05	28%	54	039% 132% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Álvaro DjalóFWD	Athletic Club	2.43	39provisional	1.04	28%	10	039% 133% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Maroan SannadiFWD	Athletic Club	2.32	40provisional	1.03	27%	13	042% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Tackles46 playersHighest: Ilaix Moriba, 2.34 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ilaix MoribaMID	Celta de Vigo	3.14	67provisional	2.34	59%	54	018% 123% 220% 315% 410% 57% 6+8%
Mikel JauregizarMID	Athletic Club	2.60	73provisional	2.10	57%	62	018% 125% 222% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Andoni GorosabelDEF	Athletic Club	2.56	65provisional	1.84	49%	35	025% 125% 220% 314% 48% 54% 6+4%
Beñat PradosMID	Athletic Club	2.91	57provisional	1.83	50%	25	024% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Iñigo Ruiz de GalarretaMID	Athletic Club	2.39	62provisional	1.65	46%	56	024% 130% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Yoel LagoDEF	Celta de Vigo	1.82	78provisional	1.57	45%	18	027% 128% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Miguel RománMID	Celta de Vigo	2.00	69provisional	1.53	42%	14	031% 127% 219% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Fran BeltránMID	Celta de Vigo	2.02	67provisional	1.51	42%	39	028% 129% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Dani VivianDEF	Athletic Club	1.66	82provisional	1.51	43%	59	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Carlos DomínguezDEF	Celta de Vigo	1.93	66provisional	1.42	39%	22	032% 129% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Shots46 playersHighest: Gorka Guruzeta, 1.71 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Gorka GuruzetaFWD	Athletic Club	2.58	59provisional	1.71	48%	58	024% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Iñaki WilliamsFWD	Athletic Club	1.91	74provisional	1.58	45%	61	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Nico WilliamsFWD	Athletic Club	2.07	68provisional	1.57	45%	50	025% 130% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Oihan SancetMID	Athletic Club	2.25	60provisional	1.51	43%	49	026% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ferran JutglàFWD	Celta de Vigo	2.19	55provisional	1.35	38%	23	032% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Álex BerenguerFWD	Athletic Club	1.73	67provisional	1.30	37%	58	031% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Borja IglesiasFWD	Celta de Vigo	2.13	54provisional	1.27	35%	50	035% 130% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Iago AspasFWD	Celta de Vigo	2.28	47provisional	1.18	32%	34	040% 128% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Pablo DuránFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.92	50provisional	1.06	29%	37	042% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Maroan SannadiFWD	Athletic Club	2.36	40provisional	1.05	27%	13	042% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Fouls won46 playersHighest: Ilaix Moriba, 1.79 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ilaix MoribaMID	Celta de Vigo	2.40	67provisional	1.79	50%	54	024% 127% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Nico WilliamsFWD	Athletic Club	1.56	68provisional	1.18	33%	50	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ferran JutglàFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.90	55provisional	1.17	32%	23	036% 131% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Maroan SannadiFWD	Athletic Club	2.61	40provisional	1.16	30%	13	039% 131% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Williot SwedbergFWD	Celta de Vigo	2.42	43provisional	1.15	31%	36	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Mikel JauregizarMID	Athletic Club	1.36	73provisional	1.10	30%	62	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Borja IglesiasFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.82	54provisional	1.09	29%	50	040% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Álex BerenguerFWD	Athletic Club	1.42	67provisional	1.07	29%	58	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Iñaki WilliamsFWD	Athletic Club	1.25	74provisional	1.03	28%	61	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Yoel LagoDEF	Celta de Vigo	1.16	78provisional	1.01	27%	18	040% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 46 →

Cards46 playersHighest: Yoel Lago, 0.25 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Yoel LagoDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.29	78provisional	0.25	22%	18	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Iñigo Ruiz de GalarretaMID	Athletic Club	0.35	62provisional	0.24	21%	56	079% 119% 22% 3+0%
Dani VivianDEF	Athletic Club	0.22	82provisional	0.20	18%	59	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Marcos AlonsoDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.20	86provisional	0.19	17%	62	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
Aitor ParedesDEF	Athletic Club	0.20	82provisional	0.18	17%	39	083% 115% 21% 3+0%
Alejandro RegoMID	Athletic Club	0.38	44provisional	0.18	16%	16	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Ilaix MoribaMID	Celta de Vigo	0.24	67provisional	0.18	16%	54	084% 115% 22% 3+0%
Beñat PradosMID	Athletic Club	0.28	57provisional	0.18	16%	25	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Andoni GorosabelDEF	Athletic Club	0.23	65provisional	0.17	15%	35	085% 114% 21% 3+0%
Javi RodríguezDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.20	74provisional	0.16	15%	61	085% 113% 2+1%
Mikel JauregizarMID	Athletic Club	0.20	73provisional	0.16	14%	62	086% 113% 2+1%
Javi RuedaDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.26	54provisional	0.16	14%	19	086% 113% 2+1%
Jesús AresoDEF	Athletic Club	0.23	58provisional	0.15	13%	18	087% 112% 2+1%
Damián RodríguezMID	Celta de Vigo	0.23	57provisional	0.15	13%	14	087% 112% 2+1%
Miguel RománMID	Celta de Vigo	0.18	69provisional	0.14	13%	14	087% 112% 2+1%
Carl StarfeltDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.16	80provisional	0.14	13%	43	087% 112% 2+1%
Yuri BerchicheDEF	Athletic Club	0.16	77provisional	0.14	13%	56	087% 112% 2+1%
Álvaro DjalóFWD	Athletic Club	0.31	39provisional	0.13	12%	10	088% 111% 2+1%
Gorka GuruzetaFWD	Athletic Club	0.20	59provisional	0.13	12%	58	088% 111% 2+1%
Yeray ÁlvarezDEF	Athletic Club	0.14	82provisional	0.13	12%	27	088% 111% 2+1%
Iñigo LekueDEF	Athletic Club	0.22	51provisional	0.12	11%	17	089% 110% 2+1%
Adama BoiroDEF	Athletic Club	0.18	60provisional	0.12	11%	25	089% 110% 2+1%
Ferran JutglàFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.19	55provisional	0.12	11%	23	089% 110% 2+1%
Oihan SancetMID	Athletic Club	0.18	60provisional	0.12	11%	49	089% 110% 2+1%
Manu FernándezDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.20	54provisional	0.12	11%	10	089% 110% 2+1%
Aymeric LaporteDEF	Athletic Club	0.13	82provisional	0.12	11%	24	089% 110% 2+1%
Borja IglesiasFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.20	54provisional	0.12	11%	50	089% 110% 2+1%
Fran BeltránMID	Celta de Vigo	0.16	67provisional	0.12	11%	39	089% 110% 2+1%
Maroan SannadiFWD	Athletic Club	0.25	40provisional	0.11	10%	13	090% 110% 2+1%
Carlos DomínguezDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.15	66provisional	0.11	10%	22	090% 110% 2+1%
Álex BerenguerFWD	Athletic Club	0.14	67provisional	0.11	10%	58	090% 19% 2+1%
Sergio CarreiraDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.11	76provisional	0.09	9%	51	091% 19% 2+0%
Hugo ÁlvarezFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.16	54provisional	0.09	9%	38	091% 18% 2+1%
Pablo DuránFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.17	50provisional	0.09	9%	37	091% 18% 2+1%
Iñaki WilliamsFWD	Athletic Club	0.11	74provisional	0.09	9%	61	091% 18% 2+0%
Nico WilliamsFWD	Athletic Club	0.12	68provisional	0.09	8%	50	092% 18% 2+0%
Mikel VesgaMID	Athletic Club	0.26	30provisional	0.09	8%	15	092% 18% 2+1%
Williot SwedbergFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.18	43provisional	0.08	8%	36	092% 18% 2+0%
Robert NavarroFWD	Athletic Club	0.17	41provisional	0.08	7%	18	093% 17% 2+0%
Mihailo RisticDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.15	46provisional	0.08	7%	10	093% 17% 2+0%
Iago AspasFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.13	47provisional	0.07	7%	34	093% 16% 2+0%
Unai SimónGK	Athletic Club	0.05	90provisional	0.05	5%	58	095% 15% 2+0%
Urko IzetaFWD	Athletic Club	0.33	14provisional	0.05	5%	1	095% 15% 2+0%
Nico SerranoFWD	Athletic Club	0.19	24provisional	0.05	5%	5	095% 15% 2+0%
Jones El-AbdellaouiFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.14	30provisional	0.05	5%	7	095% 14% 2+0%
Ionuț RaduGK	Celta de Vigo	0.01	90provisional	0.01	1%	38	099% 1+1%

All 46 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves2 playersHighest: Unai Simón, 2.90 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Unai SimónGK	Athletic Club	2.90	90provisional	2.90	53%	58	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+9%
Ionuț RaduGK	Celta de Vigo	2.60	90provisional	2.60	47%	38	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.