La Liga · Spain

Deportivo A CoruñavValencia

Sunday 30 August at 18:30Estadio Abanca-Riazorlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

opponentValencia concede 19.4 tackles a game — 2nd most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. Good news for Deportivo A Coruña's tacklers.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls24 playersHighest: César Tárrega, 1.33 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
César TárregaDEF	Valencia	1.38	86provisional	1.33	38%	66	027% 135% 223% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	1.56	63provisional	1.20	34%	60	032% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	2.36	35provisional	1.17	31%	48	035% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
José GayàDEF	Valencia	1.20	79provisional	1.09	30%	55	034% 136% 220% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	1.34	67provisional	1.06	29%	45	037% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Dimitri FoulquierDEF	Valencia	1.13	78provisional	1.00	27%	47	038% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+1%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	1.21	68provisional	0.99	26%	67	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Adrià AltimiraDEF	Deportivo A Coruña	1.28	63provisional	0.98	26%	24	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
José CopeteDEF	Valencia	1.10	77provisional	0.97	26%	46	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Javi GuerraMID	Valencia	1.15	70provisional	0.96	25%	72	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 24 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 24 →

Shots24 playersHighest: Lucas Beltrán, 1.23 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	1.65	63provisional	1.23	34%	60	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	1.50	68provisional	1.20	33%	67	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luis RiojaFWD	Valencia	1.13	77provisional	0.99	26%	74	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Diego LópezFWD	Valencia	1.22	68provisional	0.97	26%	72	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Javi GuerraMID	Valencia	1.18	70provisional	0.96	25%	72	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Dani RabaFWD	Valencia	1.98	38provisional	0.95	24%	42	046% 130% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	1.98	35provisional	0.90	23%	48	045% 132% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Arnaut DanjumaFWD	Valencia	1.64	42provisional	0.86	22%	58	047% 132% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Filip UgrinicMID	Valencia	0.97	64provisional	0.73	17%	27	050% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	0.75	67provisional	0.58	12%	45	058% 130% 210% 32% 4+1%
AngeliñoDEF	—	0.83	55provisional	0.54	12%	45	061% 127% 29% 32% 40% 5+0%
Mouctar DiakhabyDEF	Valencia	0.68	66provisional	0.52	11%	21	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Sergi CanósFWD	Valencia	1.61	22provisional	0.51	10%	17	062% 128% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
PepeluMID	Valencia	0.67	57provisional	0.45	9%	65	066% 125% 27% 31% 4+0%
José GayàDEF	Valencia	0.46	79provisional	0.41	7%	55	067% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
André AlmeidaMID	Valencia	0.81	40provisional	0.41	8%	56	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
José CopeteDEF	Valencia	0.47	77provisional	0.41	7%	46	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Dimitri FoulquierDEF	Valencia	0.45	78provisional	0.39	6%	47	068% 126% 25% 31% 4+0%
César TárregaDEF	Valencia	0.39	86provisional	0.38	6%	66	069% 125% 25% 3+1%
Jesús VázquezDEF	Valencia	0.53	58provisional	0.36	6%	43	071% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Adrià AltimiraDEF	Deportivo A Coruña	0.43	63provisional	0.32	5%	24	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Baptiste SantamariaMID	Valencia	0.54	30provisional	0.21	3%	19	082% 115% 22% 3+0%
Leo RománGK	Deportivo A Coruña	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	41	0100% 1+0%
Stole DimitrievskiGK	Valencia	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	24	0100% 1+0%

All 24 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots on target24 playersHighest: Hugo Duro, 0.46 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	0.58	68provisional	0.46	36%	67	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	0.56	63provisional	0.42	33%	60	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	0.77	35provisional	0.35	28%	48	072% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Arnaut DanjumaFWD	Valencia	0.62	42provisional	0.32	27%	58	073% 122% 24% 31% 4+0%
Diego LópezFWD	Valencia	0.41	68provisional	0.32	27%	72	073% 123% 24% 3+1%
Luis RiojaFWD	Valencia	0.34	77provisional	0.30	26%	74	074% 122% 23% 3+0%
Dani RabaFWD	Valencia	0.57	38provisional	0.27	23%	42	077% 119% 23% 3+1%
Javi GuerraMID	Valencia	0.33	70provisional	0.27	23%	72	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Sergi CanósFWD	Valencia	0.56	22provisional	0.18	16%	17	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Mouctar DiakhabyDEF	Valencia	0.23	66provisional	0.17	16%	21	084% 114% 21% 3+0%

10 of 24 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 24 →

Fouls won24 playersHighest: Lucas Beltrán, 1.70 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	2.30	63provisional	1.70	48%	60	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	1.78	68provisional	1.40	40%	67	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	1.67	67provisional	1.28	36%	45	032% 131% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Diego LópezFWD	Valencia	1.37	68provisional	1.08	29%	72	037% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adrià AltimiraDEF	Deportivo A Coruña	1.42	63provisional	1.04	28%	24	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Luis RiojaFWD	Valencia	1.05	77provisional	0.92	24%	74	041% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Dani RabaFWD	Valencia	1.92	38provisional	0.89	23%	42	048% 129% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
André AlmeidaMID	Valencia	1.78	40provisional	0.88	22%	56	047% 131% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Javi GuerraMID	Valencia	1.00	70provisional	0.81	20%	72	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Dimitri FoulquierDEF	Valencia	0.87	78provisional	0.76	18%	47	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%

10 of 24 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 24 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Stole Dimitrievski, 2.83 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Stole DimitrievskiGK	Valencia	2.88	88provisional	2.83	52%	24	08% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Leo RománGK	Deportivo A Coruña	2.44	89provisional	2.41	42%	41	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.