Trends · Referee
Tobias Welz
Bundesliga · 26 matches
Fouls per game
22.7
+7% vs Bundesliga
Cards per game
4.5
Cards per foul
0.200
stricter than 86% of Bundesliga officials
Home / away fouls
11.0 / 11.7
no meaningful split
How the model prices his matches
The cards model currently serving multiplies its card expectation by ×1.13 when Tobias Welz is appointed — his cards-per-foul ratio sits above his league's, surviving shrinkage toward the league mean. The ratio is shrunk toward the league by roughly thirteen matches’ worth of fouls, so a handful of card-happy games cannot manufacture a strict official (decision D-084).
Last 10 matches
| Date | Fixture | Fouls | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 26 | Eintracht Frankfurt v VfB Stuttgart | 26 | 5 |
| 02 May 26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen v RB Leipzig | 19 | 4 |
| 19 Apr 26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach v FSV Mainz 05 | 20 | 7 |
| 05 Apr 26 | FC Union Berlin v St. Pauli | 18 | 1 |
| 14 Mar 26 | Hamburger SV v FC Köln | 23 | 6 |
| 27 Feb 26 | FC Augsburg v FC Köln | 19 | 5 |
| 13 Feb 26 | Borussia Dortmund v FSV Mainz 05 | 15 | 5 |
| 23 Jan 26 | St. Pauli v Hamburger SV | 28 | 2 |
| 17 Jan 26 | VfL Wolfsburg v Heidenheim | 23 | 7 |
| 20 Dec 25 | FC Augsburg v Werder Bremen | 30 | 7 |
Figures cover completed matches in this dataset only, and are compared against Bundesliga's own mean rather than a pooled average — leagues differ enough that a cross-league baseline would misrepresent every official in a high-foul competition. Cards count yellows and straight reds alike, because that is what the card markets settle on.