Premier League · England
Hull CityvManchester United
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls46 playersHighest: Matty Crooks, 1.06 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Matty Crooksprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.39
039%132%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Oliver McBurnieprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.19
038%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Bryan Mbeumoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.16
038%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandesprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.06
038%135%218%36%42%50%6+0% - Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunhaprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.17
040%134%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Carlos Henrique Casimiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.32
043%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Amad Diallo Traoréprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.19
041%133%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Marcus Rashfordprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.27
042%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Manuel Ugarte Ribeiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.56
047%129%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Kobbie Mainooprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.28
046%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Benjamin Šeškoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.40
048%130%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Luke Shawprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.90
047%134%214%34%41%5+0% - Regan Slaterprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.98
049%132%214%34%41%5+0% - Mohamed Elbachir Belloumiprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.26
050%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Amir Hadžiahmetovićprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.19
050%132%213%34%41%5+0% - José Diogo Dalot Teixeiraprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.84
049%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Joel Tshisanga Ndalaprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.48
052%130%213%34%41%5+0% - Abdülkadir Ömürprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.26
051%130%213%34%41%5+0% - Mason Mountprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.65
052%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Charlie Hughesprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.79
049%134%213%34%41%5+0%
20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles46 playersHighest: Noussair Mazraoui, 2.94 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Noussair Mazraouiprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 2.94
- O 1.5
- 73%
- Model /90
- 3.93
011%116%218%318%415%510%6+11% - Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandesprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.97
- O 1.5
- 58%
- Model /90
- 2.07
014%127%227%318%49%54%6+2% - Lisandro Martínezprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.92
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.19
019%126%224%317%49%54%6+2% - John Lundstramprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 1.89
- O 1.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 3.52
026%125%218%313%49%55%6+4% - Manuel Ugarte Ribeiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 1.88
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 3.23
026%124%219%314%49%55%6+4% - Carlos Henrique Casimiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.86
- O 1.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 2.49
023%125%221%315%49%54%6+2% - Matty Crooksprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.78
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 2.33
023%126%222%315%48%54%6+2% - Amir Hadžiahmetovićprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.65
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.58
024%129%222%314%47%53%6+1% - Kobbie Mainooprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.63
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.35
026%128%221%313%47%53%6+2% - José Diogo Dalot Teixeiraprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.62
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.79
022%131%224%314%46%52%6+1% - Cody Dramehprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.59
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.35
027%128%221%313%47%53%6+1% - Mason Mountprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.55
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 3.40
030%128%219%312%47%53%6+2% - Lewie Coyleprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.52
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.63
023%132%225%313%45%52%6+1% - Regan Slaterprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.89
026%130%223%313%46%52%6+1% - Luke Shawprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.49
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.69
024%132%224%312%45%52%6+1% - Patrick Chinazaekpere Dorguprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.39
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 2.08
032%129%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Oluwasemilogo Adesewo Ibidapo Ajayiprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.35
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.60
030%131%222%311%44%51%6+0% - Abdülkadir Ömürprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.35
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 2.26
032%130%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Matthijs de Ligtprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.35
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.55
028%133%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Charlie Hughesprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.30
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.37
028%135%223%310%43%51%6+0%
20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots46 playersHighest: Oliver McBurnie, 2.02 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Oliver McBurnieprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 2.02
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.29
019%125%222%315%49%55%6+4% - Bryan Mbeumoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.97
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.23
019%126%223%315%49%54%6+3% - Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunhaprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.95
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.31
020%126%222%315%49%54%6+3% - Amad Diallo Traoréprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.77
- O 1.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 2.17
024%127%221%314%47%54%6+3% - Marcus Rashfordprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.64
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.25
025%129%222%313%46%53%6+2% - Mohamed Elbachir Belloumiprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 1.62
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.62
028%128%220%312%46%53%6+3% - Liam Millarprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.54
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.44
028%129%220%312%46%53%6+2% - Benjamin Šeškoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.54
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 2.53
032%128%218%311%46%53%6+3% - Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandesprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.37
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.44
029%133%221%311%44%52%6+1% - Joel Tshisanga Ndalaprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.31
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.57
036%129%217%310%45%52%6+1% - Joshua Zirkzeeprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 2.75
045%128%213%37%44%52%6+2% - Lewis Koumasprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 2.74
046%129%213%36%43%52%6+2% - Mason Burstowprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 2.80
047%129%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Matty Crooksprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.26
043%131%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Carlos Henrique Casimiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.28
045%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Regan Slaterprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.17
044%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Enis Destanprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 24
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 3.27
056%124%29%35%43%52%6+2% - Harry Maguireprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.09
048%131%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Amir Hadžiahmetovićprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.25
049%131%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Babajide David Akintolaprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 2.88
053%128%211%35%42%51%6+1%
20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target44 playersHighest: Oliver McBurnie, 0.99 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Oliver McBurnieprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 0.5
- 59%
- Model /90
- 1.12
041%133%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Bryan Mbeumoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 0.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 0.95
046%133%214%35%41%5+0% - Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunhaprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 0.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 0.91
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Benjamin Šeškoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 0.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 1.25
052%129%212%35%41%50%6+0% - Marcus Rashfordprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 0.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 1.01
051%132%212%34%41%5+0% - Amad Diallo Traoréprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 0.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 0.87
052%131%212%34%41%5+0% - Mohamed Elbachir Belloumiprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.67
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.08
055%129%211%33%41%5+0% - Joel Tshisanga Ndalaprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.46
- O 0.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 0.91
066%125%27%32%4+0% - Liam Millarprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.44
- O 0.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 0.69
066%126%27%31%4+0% - Lewis Koumasprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.12
069%122%26%32%41%5+0% - Joshua Zirkzeeprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.07
069%122%26%32%40%5+0% - Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandesprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.43
067%126%26%31%4+0% - Mason Burstowprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.18
070%122%26%32%40%5+0% - Enis Destanprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 24
- Proj.
- 0.34
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.27
076%118%25%31%40%5+0% - Babajide David Akintolaprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.15
075%119%24%31%4+0% - Matty Crooksprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.41
074%121%24%3+1% - Carlos Henrique Casimiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.41
075%121%24%3+1% - Harry Maguireprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.27
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.36
077%119%23%3+0% - Abdülkadir Ömürprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.43
078%118%23%3+0% - Regan Slaterprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.31
079%118%23%3+0%
20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won46 playersHighest: Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunha, 1.22 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunhaprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.45
034%132%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Oliver McBurnieprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.29
037%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Patrick Chinazaekpere Dorguprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.68
041%129%216%38%44%51%6+1% - Amad Diallo Traoréprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.38
038%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Matty Crooksprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.42
040%131%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Bryan Mbeumoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.23
038%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Amir Hadžiahmetovićprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.68
040%131%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandesprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.10
038%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Kobbie Mainooprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.40
044%130%215%37%42%51%6+0% - Marcus Rashfordprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.31
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Carlos Henrique Casimiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.21
047%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Liam Millarprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.37
047%131%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Mohamed Elbachir Belloumiprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.34
049%131%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Lewie Coyleprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.86
047%133%214%34%41%5+0% - Abdülkadir Ömürprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.33
050%130%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Manuel Ugarte Ribeiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.35
052%128%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Joel Tshisanga Ndalaprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.54
051%129%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Benjamin Šeškoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.21
053%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Regan Slaterprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.90
052%131%212%34%41%5+0% - Charlie Hughesprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.61
- O 1.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.64
056%131%210%32%41%5+0%
20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards46 playersHighest: Matty Crooks, 0.19 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Matty Crooksprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.25
083%115%22%3+0% - Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandesprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.20
083%115%22%3+0% - Luke Shawprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.20
084%114%2+1% - Carlos Henrique Casimiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.23
084%114%22%3+0% - Charlie Hughesprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.18
084%114%2+1% - Harry Maguireprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.22
085%114%21%3+0% - Manuel Ugarte Ribeiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.29
085%113%22%3+0% - Lisandro Martínezprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%114%2+1% - Patrick Chinazaekpere Dorguprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.24
085%113%21%3+0% - Lewie Coyleprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.18
085%114%2+1% - Kobbie Mainooprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.23
085%113%21%3+0% - José Diogo Dalot Teixeiraprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Regan Slaterprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.19
086%113%2+1% - John Eganprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Oluwasemilogo Adesewo Ibidapo Ajayiprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.18
086%113%2+1% - John Lundstramprovisional
MID · Hull City
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.28
086%112%21%3+0% - Ayden Heavenprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.26
087%112%21%3+0% - Oliver McBurnieprovisional
FWD · Hull City
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%112%2+1% - Matthijs de Ligtprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.17
087%112%2+1% - Bryan Mbeumoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1%
20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves46 playersHighest: Senne Lammens, 3.00 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Senne Lammensprovisional
GK · Manchester United
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.00
- O 2.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 3.00
07%116%221%320%415%510%6+11% - Ivor Pandurprovisional
GK · Hull City
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.69
- O 2.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 2.69
09%119%223%320%414%58%6+7% - Lisandro Martínezprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Oluwasemilogo Adesewo Ibidapo Ajayiprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ayden Heavenprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.01
0100%1+0% - Matthijs de Ligtprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Paddy McNairprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Harry Maguireprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - John Eganprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Leny Yoroprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Charlie Hughesprovisional
DEF · Hull City
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandesprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - José Diogo Dalot Teixeiraprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Luke Shawprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Bryan Mbeumoprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunhaprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Amad Diallo Traoréprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Noussair Mazraouiprovisional
DEF · Manchester United
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Carlos Henrique Casimiroprovisional
MID · Manchester United
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Marcus Rashfordprovisional
FWD · Manchester United
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.