PER90My betsAccount

Premier League · England

Hull CityvManchester United

MKM Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls46 playersHighest: Matty Crooks, 1.06 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Matty Crooks

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.39
    039%
    132%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Oliver McBurnie

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.05
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.19
    038%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Bryan Mbeumo

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.16
    038%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.06
    038%
    135%
    218%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunha

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.17
    040%
    134%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Carlos Henrique Casimiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.32
    043%
    131%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Amad Diallo Traoré

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.19
    041%
    133%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marcus Rashford

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.27
    042%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Manuel Ugarte Ribeiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.56
    047%
    129%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Kobbie Mainoo

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.28
    046%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Benjamin Šeško

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.40
    048%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Luke Shaw

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.90
    047%
    134%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Regan Slater

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.98
    049%
    132%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.26
    050%
    131%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Amir Hadžiahmetović

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.19
    050%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • José Diogo Dalot Teixeira

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.84
    049%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Joel Tshisanga Ndala

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.48
    052%
    130%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Abdülkadir Ömür

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.26
    051%
    130%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mason Mount

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.65
    052%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Charlie Hughes

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.79
    049%
    134%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles46 playersHighest: Noussair Mazraoui, 2.94 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Noussair Mazraoui

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    2.94
    O 1.5
    73%
    Model /90
    3.93
    011%
    116%
    218%
    318%
    415%
    510%
    6+11%
  • Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.97
    O 1.5
    58%
    Model /90
    2.07
    014%
    127%
    227%
    318%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Lisandro Martínez

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.92
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.19
    019%
    126%
    224%
    317%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • John Lundstram

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    1.89
    O 1.5
    49%
    Model /90
    3.52
    026%
    125%
    218%
    313%
    49%
    55%
    6+4%
  • Manuel Ugarte Ribeiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    1.88
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    3.23
    026%
    124%
    219%
    314%
    49%
    55%
    6+4%
  • Carlos Henrique Casimiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.86
    O 1.5
    52%
    Model /90
    2.49
    023%
    125%
    221%
    315%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Matty Crooks

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.78
    O 1.5
    51%
    Model /90
    2.33
    023%
    126%
    222%
    315%
    48%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Amir Hadžiahmetović

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    1.65
    O 1.5
    47%
    Model /90
    2.58
    024%
    129%
    222%
    314%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Kobbie Mainoo

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.63
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    2.35
    026%
    128%
    221%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • José Diogo Dalot Teixeira

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.62
    O 1.5
    47%
    Model /90
    1.79
    022%
    131%
    224%
    314%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Cody Drameh

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.59
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.35
    027%
    128%
    221%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Mason Mount

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    1.55
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    3.40
    030%
    128%
    219%
    312%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Lewie Coyle

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.52
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.63
    023%
    132%
    225%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Regan Slater

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.51
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.89
    026%
    130%
    223%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Luke Shaw

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.49
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.69
    024%
    132%
    224%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Patrick Chinazaekpere Dorgu

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.39
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    2.08
    032%
    129%
    220%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.35
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.60
    030%
    131%
    222%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Abdülkadir Ömür

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    1.35
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    2.26
    032%
    130%
    220%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Matthijs de Ligt

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.35
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.55
    028%
    133%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Charlie Hughes

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.30
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.37
    028%
    135%
    223%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots46 playersHighest: Oliver McBurnie, 2.02 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Oliver McBurnie

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    2.02
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.29
    019%
    125%
    222%
    315%
    49%
    55%
    6+4%
  • Bryan Mbeumo

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.97
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.23
    019%
    126%
    223%
    315%
    49%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunha

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.95
    O 1.5
    53%
    Model /90
    2.31
    020%
    126%
    222%
    315%
    49%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Amad Diallo Traoré

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.77
    O 1.5
    49%
    Model /90
    2.17
    024%
    127%
    221%
    314%
    47%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Marcus Rashford

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.64
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    2.25
    025%
    129%
    222%
    313%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    1.62
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.62
    028%
    128%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+3%
  • Liam Millar

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.54
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.44
    028%
    129%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Benjamin Šeško

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.54
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    2.53
    032%
    128%
    218%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+3%
  • Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.44
    029%
    133%
    221%
    311%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Joel Tshisanga Ndala

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.31
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    2.57
    036%
    129%
    217%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Joshua Zirkzee

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    1.10
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    2.75
    045%
    128%
    213%
    37%
    44%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Lewis Koumas

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    1.05
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    2.74
    046%
    129%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Mason Burstow

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    31
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    2.80
    047%
    129%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Matty Crooks

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.26
    043%
    131%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Carlos Henrique Casimiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.28
    045%
    130%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Regan Slater

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.17
    044%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Enis Destan

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    24
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    3.27
    056%
    124%
    29%
    35%
    43%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Harry Maguire

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.09
    048%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Amir Hadžiahmetović

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.25
    049%
    131%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Babajide David Akintola

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    25
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    2.88
    053%
    128%
    211%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%

20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target44 playersHighest: Oliver McBurnie, 0.99 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Oliver McBurnie

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 0.5
    59%
    Model /90
    1.12
    041%
    133%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Bryan Mbeumo

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 0.5
    54%
    Model /90
    0.95
    046%
    133%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunha

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 0.5
    51%
    Model /90
    0.91
    049%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Benjamin Šeško

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 0.5
    48%
    Model /90
    1.25
    052%
    129%
    212%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Marcus Rashford

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 0.5
    49%
    Model /90
    1.01
    051%
    132%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Amad Diallo Traoré

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 0.5
    48%
    Model /90
    0.87
    052%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.67
    O 0.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.08
    055%
    129%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Joel Tshisanga Ndala

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.46
    O 0.5
    34%
    Model /90
    0.91
    066%
    125%
    27%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Liam Millar

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.44
    O 0.5
    34%
    Model /90
    0.69
    066%
    126%
    27%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Lewis Koumas

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.43
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.12
    069%
    122%
    26%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Joshua Zirkzee

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    0.43
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.07
    069%
    122%
    26%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    33%
    Model /90
    0.43
    067%
    126%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Mason Burstow

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    31
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.18
    070%
    122%
    26%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Enis Destan

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    24
    Proj.
    0.34
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.27
    076%
    118%
    25%
    31%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Babajide David Akintola

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    25
    Proj.
    0.32
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.15
    075%
    119%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Matty Crooks

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.41
    074%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Carlos Henrique Casimiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.41
    075%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Harry Maguire

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.27
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.36
    077%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Abdülkadir Ömür

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.43
    078%
    118%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Regan Slater

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.31
    079%
    118%
    23%
    3+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won46 playersHighest: Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunha, 1.22 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunha

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.45
    034%
    132%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Oliver McBurnie

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.29
    037%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Patrick Chinazaekpere Dorgu

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.13
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.68
    041%
    129%
    216%
    38%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Amad Diallo Traoré

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.12
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.38
    038%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Matty Crooks

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.42
    040%
    131%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Bryan Mbeumo

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.23
    038%
    133%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Amir Hadžiahmetović

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.68
    040%
    131%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.05
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.10
    038%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Kobbie Mainoo

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.40
    044%
    130%
    215%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marcus Rashford

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.31
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Carlos Henrique Casimiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.21
    047%
    130%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Liam Millar

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.37
    047%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.34
    049%
    131%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Lewie Coyle

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.86
    047%
    133%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Abdülkadir Ömür

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.33
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Manuel Ugarte Ribeiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.35
    052%
    128%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Joel Tshisanga Ndala

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.54
    051%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Benjamin Šeško

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.21
    053%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Regan Slater

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.90
    052%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Charlie Hughes

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.61
    O 1.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.64
    056%
    131%
    210%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards46 playersHighest: Matty Crooks, 0.19 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • Matty Crooks

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.25
    083%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.20
    083%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Luke Shaw

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.20
    084%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Carlos Henrique Casimiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.23
    084%
    114%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Charlie Hughes

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.18
    084%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Harry Maguire

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.22
    085%
    114%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Manuel Ugarte Ribeiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.29
    085%
    113%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Lisandro Martínez

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.19
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Patrick Chinazaekpere Dorgu

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.24
    085%
    113%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Lewie Coyle

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.18
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Kobbie Mainoo

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.23
    085%
    113%
    21%
    3+0%
  • José Diogo Dalot Teixeira

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.17
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Regan Slater

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.19
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • John Egan

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.17
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.18
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • John Lundstram

    MID · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.28
    086%
    112%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Ayden Heaven

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.26
    087%
    112%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Oliver McBurnie

    FWD · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.17
    086%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Matthijs de Ligt

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.17
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Bryan Mbeumo

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%

20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves46 playersHighest: Senne Lammens, 3.00 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Senne Lammens

    GK · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    3.00
    O 2.5
    55%
    Model /90
    3.00
    07%
    116%
    221%
    320%
    415%
    510%
    6+11%
  • Ivor Pandur

    GK · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.69
    O 2.5
    49%
    Model /90
    2.69
    09%
    119%
    223%
    320%
    414%
    58%
    6+7%
  • Lisandro Martínez

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ayden Heaven

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.01
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Matthijs de Ligt

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Paddy McNair

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Harry Maguire

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • John Egan

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Leny Yoro

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Charlie Hughes

    DEF · Hull City

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • José Diogo Dalot Teixeira

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Luke Shaw

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Bryan Mbeumo

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Matheus Santos Carneiro Da Cunha

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Amad Diallo Traoré

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Noussair Mazraoui

    DEF · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Carlos Henrique Casimiro

    MID · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Marcus Rashford

    FWD · Manchester United

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 46 players shown, ranked by projection.