Premier League · England

EvertonvCrystal Palace

Saturday 22 August at 15:00Hill Dickinson Stadiumexpected lineup

Referee

Paul Tierney

18 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.0

-9% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formJames Tarkowski over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10, 6 in a row
Last 20: 10/20 · 5/5 at home · strip 2 2 1 1 2 1 0 2 1 0 · market 63% · best 1.67 (Bet365) · bet365 1.67
formJake O'Brien over 0.5 tackles: 8/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 17/20 · 4/5 at home · strip 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 3 · market 75% · best 1.33 (Bet365) · bet365 1.33
formBrennan Johnson over 0.5 tackles: 7/10 of his last 10, 6 in a row
Last 20: 13/20 · 3/4 at home · strip 1 2 1 1 2 2 0 2 0 0 · market 70% · best 1.44 (TalkSportBet) · bet365 1.22
formJake O'Brien over 0.5 fouls: 5/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 9/20 · 2/5 at home · strip 2 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 · market 53% · best 2.00 (Bet365) · bet365 2.00
formJames Tarkowski over 0.5 tackles: 7/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 14/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 1 4 3 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 · market 74% · best 1.36 (Parimatch) · bet365 1.33
formKiernan Dewsbury-Hall over 0.5 fouls: 7/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 13/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 · market 75% · best 1.33 (Bet365) · bet365 1.33
opponentCrystal Palace concede 11.7 tackles a game — 19th most of 20 in the Premier League
Over their last 10. A hard place to get tackles.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 7 live calls

Jefferson Lermaover 1.50 Tackles2.25 at bet365 · fair 1.70+32.4%
Yéremy Pinoover 1.50 Tackles1.83 at bet365 · fair 1.45+26.4%
James Garnerover 2.50 Tackles2.10 at bet365 · fair 1.70+23.5%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallover 2.50 Tackles3.75 at bet365 · fair 3.20+17.2%
Adam Whartonover 1.50 Fouls2.50 at bet365 · fair 2.30+8.7%
Adam Whartonover 0.50 Shots1.57 at bet365 · fair 1.45+8.3%
Thierno Barryover 0.50 Fouls1.30 at bet365 · fair 1.22+6.6%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls50 playersHighest: Jørgen Strand Larsen, 1.29 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jørgen Strand LarsenFWD	Crystal Palace	1.51	73provisional	1.29	37%	71	029% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Will HughesMID	Crystal Palace	1.55	65provisional	1.21	34%	64	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Daniel MuñozDEF	Crystal Palace	1.22	85provisional	1.17	33%	66	031% 136% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Merlin RöhlMID	Everton	1.61	59provisional	1.16	32%	37	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Hayden HackneyMID	—	1.29	73provisional	1.10	30%	82	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Thierno BarryFWD	Everton	1.60	55provisional	1.09	30%	73	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
David OzohMID	—	1.46	56provisional	1.01	27%	43	039% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tim IroegbunamMID	Everton	1.42	58provisional	1.00	27%	47	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Romain EsseFWD	Crystal Palace	1.48	54provisional	0.99	26%	52	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Idrissa GueyeMID	Everton	1.00	84provisional	0.95	25%	62	039% 136% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%
Daichi KamadaMID	Crystal Palace	1.21	66provisional	0.95	25%	62	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
James GarnerMID	Everton	0.96	86provisional	0.92	24%	59	040% 136% 217% 35% 41% 5+0%
Yéremy PinoFWD	Crystal Palace	1.28	55provisional	0.89	23%	70	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Christian NørgaardMID	—	1.18	62provisional	0.87	23%	41	045% 132% 215% 35% 42% 5+0%
Adam WhartonMID	Crystal Palace	1.12	64provisional	0.86	22%	54	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Eddie NketiahFWD	Crystal Palace	1.57	41provisional	0.86	21%	41	046% 132% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
BetoFWD	Everton	1.37	47provisional	0.82	21%	67	047% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Jefferson LermaMID	Crystal Palace	1.15	58provisional	0.81	20%	64	047% 133% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
James TarkowskiDEF	Everton	0.82	89provisional	0.81	19%	70	045% 136% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kiernan Dewsbury-HallMID	Everton	0.93	73provisional	0.79	19%	44	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Iliman NdiayeFWD	Everton	0.80	81provisional	0.75	17%	65	048% 135% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Cheick DoucouréMID	Crystal Palace	1.28	41provisional	0.71	17%	13	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Vitaliy MykolenkoDEF	Everton	0.71	88provisional	0.70	16%	68	050% 134% 212% 33% 4+1%
Adam AznouDEF	—	1.02	56provisional	0.70	16%	15	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Tyler DiblingFWD	Everton	1.39	35provisional	0.68	16%	48	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Borna SosaDEF	Crystal Palace	1.33	37provisional	0.68	16%	26	054% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Brennan JohnsonFWD	Crystal Palace	0.98	55provisional	0.67	15%	67	053% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jake O'BrienDEF	Everton	0.69	84provisional	0.65	14%	57	053% 133% 211% 32% 4+1%
Chadi RiadDEF	Crystal Palace	0.77	69provisional	0.62	13%	10	054% 132% 210% 32% 4+1%
Justin DevennyMID	Crystal Palace	0.98	50provisional	0.61	14%	44	057% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jaydee CanvotDEF	Crystal Palace	0.69	73provisional	0.59	12%	20	057% 131% 210% 32% 4+0%
Tyrick MitchellDEF	Crystal Palace	0.69	73provisional	0.59	12%	75	056% 131% 210% 32% 4+0%
Jean-Philippe MatetaFWD	Crystal Palace	0.88	51provisional	0.57	12%	69	058% 130% 29% 32% 4+1%
Carlos AlcarazMID	Everton	1.23	31provisional	0.56	12%	36	060% 129% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Evann GuessandFWD	Crystal Palace	1.09	36provisional	0.56	11%	21	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Jesurun Rak-SakyiFWD	—	0.98	41provisional	0.55	11%	50	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Michael KeaneDEF	Everton	0.57	81provisional	0.52	10%	47	060% 130% 28% 32% 4+0%
Óscar MinguezaDEF	—	0.77	52provisional	0.51	10%	68	062% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Harrison ArmstrongMID	Everton	0.91	42provisional	0.50	10%	48	063% 127% 28% 32% 4+0%
Chris RichardsDEF	Crystal Palace	0.60	71provisional	0.49	9%	57	062% 128% 28% 31% 4+0%
Ismaïla SarrFWD	Crystal Palace	0.52	78provisional	0.47	8%	66	063% 129% 27% 31% 4+0%
Tyrique GeorgeFWD	Everton	1.26	22provisional	0.46	8%	23	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Dwight McNeilFWD	Everton	0.68	55provisional	0.46	9%	43	065% 126% 27% 31% 4+0%
Jarrad BranthwaiteDEF	Everton	0.48	82provisional	0.45	8%	40	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Nathan PattersonDEF	Everton	1.09	28provisional	0.44	8%	17	066% 125% 26% 32% 4+0%
Nathaniel ClyneDEF	Crystal Palace	0.69	48provisional	0.42	7%	23	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Séamus ColemanDEF	Everton	0.46	25provisional	0.17	2%	10	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Dean HendersonGK	Crystal Palace	0.07	89provisional	0.07	0%	75	093% 17% 2+0%
Jordan PickfordGK	Everton	0.05	89provisional	0.05	0%	76	095% 15% 2+0%
Mark TraversGK	—	0.02	88provisional	0.02	—	22	098% 1+2%

All 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots50 playersHighest: Hayden Hackney, 1.90 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Hayden HackneyMID	—	2.27	73provisional	1.90	53%	82	020% 126% 223% 315% 49% 54% 6+3%
Ismaïla SarrFWD	Crystal Palace	1.80	78provisional	1.59	46%	66	023% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
BetoFWD	Everton	2.57	47provisional	1.48	40%	67	031% 129% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Iliman NdiayeFWD	Everton	1.58	81provisional	1.46	42%	65	025% 133% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jørgen Strand LarsenFWD	Crystal Palace	1.69	73provisional	1.42	41%	71	027% 133% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Thierno BarryFWD	Everton	2.13	55provisional	1.40	39%	73	031% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Eddie NketiahFWD	Crystal Palace	2.67	41provisional	1.36	36%	41	033% 131% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Jean-Philippe MatetaFWD	Crystal Palace	2.13	51provisional	1.32	36%	69	033% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Romain EsseFWD	Crystal Palace	2.01	54provisional	1.29	35%	52	035% 130% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kiernan Dewsbury-HallMID	Everton	1.36	73provisional	1.14	32%	44	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Shots on target47 playersHighest: Ismaïla Sarr, 0.71 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Ismaïla SarrFWD	Crystal Palace	0.80	78provisional	0.71	49%	66	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Iliman NdiayeFWD	Everton	0.73	81provisional	0.67	48%	65	052% 133% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
BetoFWD	Everton	1.11	47provisional	0.64	44%	67	056% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jean-Philippe MatetaFWD	Crystal Palace	1.01	51provisional	0.63	44%	69	056% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Thierno BarryFWD	Everton	0.85	55provisional	0.56	40%	73	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+1%
Hayden HackneyMID	—	0.65	73provisional	0.55	41%	82	059% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Eddie NketiahFWD	Crystal Palace	1.06	41provisional	0.54	39%	41	061% 127% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Jørgen Strand LarsenFWD	Crystal Palace	0.64	73provisional	0.54	41%	71	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Romain EsseFWD	Crystal Palace	0.81	54provisional	0.52	38%	52	062% 127% 28% 32% 4+0%
Dwight McNeilFWD	Everton	0.62	55provisional	0.40	31%	43	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%

10 of 47 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 47 →

Fouls won50 playersHighest: Ismaïla Sarr, 1.37 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ismaïla SarrFWD	Crystal Palace	1.56	78provisional	1.37	39%	66	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Romain EsseFWD	Crystal Palace	1.90	54provisional	1.20	33%	52	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Idrissa GueyeMID	Everton	1.25	84provisional	1.17	33%	62	032% 135% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kiernan Dewsbury-HallMID	Everton	1.40	73provisional	1.16	32%	44	035% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Iliman NdiayeFWD	Everton	1.20	81provisional	1.10	30%	65	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Hayden HackneyMID	—	1.25	73provisional	1.04	28%	82	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Will HughesMID	Crystal Palace	1.31	65provisional	0.99	26%	64	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
James GarnerMID	Everton	1.03	86provisional	0.98	26%	59	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Daichi KamadaMID	Crystal Palace	1.17	66provisional	0.89	23%	62	044% 133% 215% 35% 42% 5+0%
Jefferson LermaMID	Crystal Palace	1.29	58provisional	0.87	22%	64	046% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 50 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 50 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Dean Henderson, 3.17 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Dean HendersonGK	Crystal Palace	3.19	89provisional	3.17	59%	75	06% 115% 221% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Mark TraversGK	—	2.90	88provisional	2.84	52%	22	08% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Jordan PickfordGK	Everton	2.62	89provisional	2.61	47%	76	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.