Serie A · Italy

AtalantavBologna

Monday 31 August at 19:45Gewiss Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Shots on target v20260813-1536-sot · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls41 playersHighest: Sead Kolašinac, 1.50 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Sead Kolašinac
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.50
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.82
024%
132%
224%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Nikola Krstović
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.46
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.42
030%
130%
220%
311%
46%
52%
6+1%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.30
031%
129%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Giorgio Scalvini
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.77
029%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.05
034%
128%
219%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Isak Hien
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.36
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.66
029%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+1%
Nicolò Casale
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.07
032%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Marten de Roon
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.46
027%
134%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.82
034%
131%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Honest Ahanor
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.68
033%
134%
220%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Martin Vitík
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.51
034%
134%
220%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.33
034%
135%
220%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Gianluca Scamacca
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.91
036%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Torbjørn Heggem
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.29
035%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.11
037%
136%
218%
36%
42%
5+0%
Kossonou Odilon
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.52
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.81
045%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.61
045%
131%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Emil Holm
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.43
047%
129%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Giacomo Raspadori
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.28
045%
133%
215%
35%
42%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Sead KolašinacDEF	Atalanta	1.82	75provisional	1.50	44%	39	024% 132% 224% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Nikola KrstovićFWD	Atalanta	2.42	54provisional	1.46	40%	24	030% 130% 220% 311% 46% 52% 6+1%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	2.30	56provisional	1.42	40%	33	031% 129% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Giorgio ScalviniDEF	Atalanta	1.77	70provisional	1.37	40%	27	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	2.05	60provisional	1.37	38%	30	034% 128% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Isak HienDEF	Atalanta	1.66	74provisional	1.36	39%	51	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Nicolò CasaleDEF	Bologna	2.07	59provisional	1.35	38%	21	032% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Marten de RoonMID	Atalanta	1.46	82provisional	1.34	38%	67	027% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	1.82	61provisional	1.23	35%	43	034% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Honest AhanorDEF	Atalanta	1.68	63provisional	1.17	32%	17	033% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Martin VitíkDEF	Bologna	1.51	70provisional	1.16	32%	16	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da SilvaMID	Atalanta	1.33	76provisional	1.13	31%	62	034% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Gianluca ScamaccaFWD	Atalanta	1.91	53provisional	1.12	31%	20	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	Bologna	1.29	78provisional	1.12	31%	24	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	1.11	82provisional	1.01	27%	63	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Kossonou OdilonDEF	Atalanta	1.52	57provisional	0.96	25%	29	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nicolò CambiaghiFWD	Bologna	1.81	46provisional	0.93	24%	30	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lorenzo De SilvestriDEF	Bologna	1.61	52provisional	0.93	25%	20	045% 131% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Emil HolmDEF	Bologna	1.43	56provisional	0.89	24%	22	047% 129% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Giacomo RaspadoriFWD	Atalanta	1.28	61provisional	0.86	22%	11	045% 133% 215% 35% 42% 5+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles41 playersHighest: Marten de Roon, 2.10 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Marten de Roon
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
2.10
O 1.5
58%
Model /90
2.30
016%
125%
224%
317%
410%
55%
6+4%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
2.03
O 1.5
57%
Model /90
2.22
017%
126%
224%
316%
49%
55%
6+3%
Martin Vitík
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.73
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.23
023%
129%
222%
313%
47%
53%
6+2%
Emil Holm
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.70
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.73
032%
124%
217%
312%
48%
54%
6+4%
Giorgio Scalvini
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.69
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.19
025%
128%
222%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.67
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.71
028%
127%
219%
312%
47%
54%
6+3%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.63
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.92
024%
130%
222%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Jhon Janer Lucumí Bonilla
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.61
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.81
024%
130%
223%
313%
46%
53%
6+1%
Isak Hien
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.60
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.94
026%
129%
222%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Sead Kolašinac
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.51
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
1.82
026%
131%
222%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Berat Djimsiti
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.49
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.76
027%
131%
222%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Honest Ahanor
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.44
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.08
028%
131%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Charalampos Lykogiannis
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.03
033%
128%
219%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Nikola Moro
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
1.39
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.16
034%
129%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Juan Miranda González
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.60
031%
131%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Torbjørn Heggem
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.52
032%
131%
220%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.90
038%
128%
217%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Lorenzo Bernasconi
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.19
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.57
036%
131%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.02
043%
130%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Nadir Zortea
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.50
046%
130%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Marten de RoonMID	Atalanta	2.30	82provisional	2.10	58%	67	016% 125% 224% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	2.22	82provisional	2.03	57%	63	017% 126% 224% 316% 49% 55% 6+3%
Martin VitíkDEF	Bologna	2.23	70provisional	1.73	48%	16	023% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Emil HolmDEF	Bologna	2.73	56provisional	1.70	44%	22	032% 124% 217% 312% 48% 54% 6+4%
Giorgio ScalviniDEF	Atalanta	2.19	70provisional	1.69	48%	27	025% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	2.71	56provisional	1.67	45%	33	028% 127% 219% 312% 47% 54% 6+3%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da SilvaMID	Atalanta	1.92	76provisional	1.63	46%	62	024% 130% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Jhon Janer Lucumí BonillaDEF	Bologna	1.81	80provisional	1.61	46%	57	024% 130% 223% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Isak HienDEF	Atalanta	1.94	74provisional	1.60	45%	51	026% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Sead KolašinacDEF	Atalanta	1.82	75provisional	1.51	43%	39	026% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Berat DjimsitiDEF	Atalanta	1.76	76provisional	1.49	42%	61	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Honest AhanorDEF	Atalanta	2.08	63provisional	1.44	40%	17	028% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Charalampos LykogiannisDEF	Bologna	2.03	62provisional	1.40	39%	20	033% 128% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Nikola MoroMID	Bologna	2.16	58provisional	1.39	38%	39	034% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Juan Miranda GonzálezDEF	Bologna	1.60	77provisional	1.37	39%	55	031% 131% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	Bologna	1.52	78provisional	1.32	37%	24	032% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	1.90	60provisional	1.27	34%	30	038% 128% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lorenzo BernasconiMID	Atalanta	1.57	68provisional	1.19	33%	19	036% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Nicolò CambiaghiFWD	Bologna	2.02	46provisional	1.04	27%	30	043% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Nadir ZorteaDEF	Bologna	1.50	57provisional	0.94	24%	21	046% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots41 playersHighest: Nikola Krstović, 2.43 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Nikola Krstović
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
2.43
O 1.5
60%
Model /90
4.04
017%
123%
219%
315%
410%
57%
6+9%
Gianluca Scamacca
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
2.00
O 1.5
55%
Model /90
3.40
019%
126%
222%
315%
49%
55%
6+4%
Riccardo Orsolini
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.95
O 1.5
54%
Model /90
2.83
020%
126%
222%
315%
49%
54%
6+3%
Giacomo Raspadori
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.79
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
2.65
023%
128%
221%
313%
48%
54%
6+3%
Jon Rowe
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
2.30
029%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Charles De Ketelaere
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.98
029%
131%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.98
032%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Federico Bernardeschi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.29
043%
129%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Davide Zappacosta
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.29
038%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.20
038%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lazar Samardžić
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
2.41
043%
131%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Kamal Deen Sulemana
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
2.28
043%
131%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Mario Pašalić
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.53
042%
131%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Benjamín Domínguez
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.78
046%
129%
215%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.49
045%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Thijs Dallinga
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.24
049%
128%
213%
36%
43%
51%
6+0%
Nicola Zalewski
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.40
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.58
049%
130%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Giorgio Scalvini
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.63
O 1.5
14%
Model /90
0.81
055%
131%
211%
33%
4+1%
Nikola Moro
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.58
O 1.5
13%
Model /90
0.91
059%
128%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nikola KrstovićFWD	Atalanta	4.04	54provisional	2.43	60%	24	017% 123% 219% 315% 410% 57% 6+9%
Gianluca ScamaccaFWD	Atalanta	3.40	53provisional	2.00	55%	20	019% 126% 222% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Riccardo OrsoliniFWD	Bologna	2.83	62provisional	1.95	54%	52	020% 126% 222% 315% 49% 54% 6+3%
Giacomo RaspadoriFWD	Atalanta	2.65	61provisional	1.79	49%	11	023% 128% 221% 313% 48% 54% 6+3%
Jon RoweFWD	Bologna	2.30	57provisional	1.47	41%	22	029% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Charles De KetelaereMID	Atalanta	1.98	64provisional	1.40	40%	57	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	1.98	61provisional	1.34	38%	43	032% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Federico BernardeschiFWD	Bologna	2.29	42provisional	1.06	28%	15	043% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Davide ZappacostaMID	Atalanta	1.29	72provisional	1.03	28%	61	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da SilvaMID	Atalanta	1.20	76provisional	1.02	27%	62	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lazar SamardžićMID	Atalanta	2.41	38provisional	1.02	26%	31	043% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Kamal Deen SulemanaFWD	Atalanta	2.28	40provisional	1.02	26%	12	043% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Mario PašalićMID	Atalanta	1.53	58provisional	0.99	26%	48	042% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Benjamín DomínguezFWD	Bologna	1.78	47provisional	0.93	25%	24	046% 129% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	1.49	56provisional	0.92	24%	33	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Thijs DallingaFWD	Bologna	2.24	36provisional	0.90	23%	24	049% 128% 213% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nicola ZalewskiMID	Atalanta	1.40	58provisional	0.90	23%	26	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Nicolò CambiaghiFWD	Bologna	1.58	46provisional	0.81	20%	30	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Giorgio ScalviniDEF	Atalanta	0.81	70provisional	0.63	14%	27	055% 131% 211% 33% 4+1%
Nikola MoroMID	Bologna	0.91	58provisional	0.58	13%	39	059% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target39 playersHighest: Nikola Krstović, 0.84 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Nikola Krstović
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.84
O 0.5
52%
Model /90
1.40
048%
131%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Gianluca Scamacca
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.80
O 0.5
52%
Model /90
1.36
048%
132%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Riccardo Orsolini
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.73
O 0.5
49%
Model /90
1.06
051%
132%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Giacomo Raspadori
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.69
O 0.5
47%
Model /90
1.02
053%
131%
212%
33%
41%
5+0%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.54
O 0.5
40%
Model /90
0.80
060%
129%
29%
32%
4+0%
Jon Rowe
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.54
O 0.5
40%
Model /90
0.85
060%
129%
29%
32%
4+0%
Charles De Ketelaere
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.54
O 0.5
40%
Model /90
0.76
060%
129%
29%
32%
4+0%
Benjamín Domínguez
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.41
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.78
069%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Kamal Deen Sulemana
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.40
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.90
069%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Lazar Samardžić
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.39
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
0.92
070%
123%
26%
31%
4+0%
Federico Bernardeschi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.36
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.78
072%
122%
25%
31%
4+0%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.32
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.51
074%
121%
24%
3+1%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.31
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.37
073%
122%
24%
3+1%
Davide Zappacosta
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.30
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.37
075%
121%
23%
3+0%
Thijs Dallinga
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.71
077%
119%
24%
31%
4+0%
Mario Pašalić
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.41
078%
119%
23%
3+0%
Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.49
078%
118%
23%
3+0%
Nicola Zalewski
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.30
083%
116%
22%
3+0%
Raoul Bellanova
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.24
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Giorgio Scalvini
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.22
084%
114%
21%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Nikola KrstovićFWD	Atalanta	1.40	54provisional	0.84	52%	24	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Gianluca ScamaccaFWD	Atalanta	1.36	53provisional	0.80	52%	20	048% 132% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Riccardo OrsoliniFWD	Bologna	1.06	62provisional	0.73	49%	52	051% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Giacomo RaspadoriFWD	Atalanta	1.02	61provisional	0.69	47%	11	053% 131% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	0.80	61provisional	0.54	40%	43	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Jon RoweFWD	Bologna	0.85	57provisional	0.54	40%	22	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Charles De KetelaereMID	Atalanta	0.76	64provisional	0.54	40%	57	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Benjamín DomínguezFWD	Bologna	0.78	47provisional	0.41	31%	24	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Kamal Deen SulemanaFWD	Atalanta	0.90	40provisional	0.40	31%	12	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Lazar SamardžićMID	Atalanta	0.92	38provisional	0.39	30%	31	070% 123% 26% 31% 4+0%
Federico BernardeschiFWD	Bologna	0.78	42provisional	0.36	28%	15	072% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	0.51	56provisional	0.32	26%	33	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da SilvaMID	Atalanta	0.37	76provisional	0.31	27%	62	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Davide ZappacostaMID	Atalanta	0.37	72provisional	0.30	25%	61	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Thijs DallingaFWD	Bologna	0.71	36provisional	0.28	23%	24	077% 119% 24% 31% 4+0%
Mario PašalićMID	Atalanta	0.41	58provisional	0.26	22%	48	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Nicolò CambiaghiFWD	Bologna	0.49	46provisional	0.25	22%	30	078% 118% 23% 3+0%
Nicola ZalewskiMID	Atalanta	0.30	58provisional	0.19	17%	26	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
Raoul BellanovaMID	Atalanta	0.24	65provisional	0.18	16%	51	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Giorgio ScalviniDEF	Atalanta	0.22	70provisional	0.17	16%	27	084% 114% 21% 3+0%

20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won41 playersHighest: Nicolò Cambiaghi, 2.28 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
2.28
O 1.5
56%
Model /90
4.43
020%
124%
219%
313%
49%
56%
6+8%
Jon Rowe
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.74
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.72
024%
128%
221%
313%
47%
54%
6+2%
Nicola Zalewski
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
1.68
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.62
023%
129%
222%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.55
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.82
025%
131%
223%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Riccardo Orsolini
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.39
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.03
030%
131%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Charles De Ketelaere
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.84
031%
132%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.91
033%
131%
220%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Benjamín Domínguez
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.44
037%
128%
217%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Honest Ahanor
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.63
035%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.60
042%
129%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Emil Holm
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.70
043%
128%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Juan Miranda González
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.22
039%
133%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Giacomo Raspadori
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.46
041%
132%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nikola Krstović
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.58
044%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Gianluca Scamacca
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.60
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kamal Deen Sulemana
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.02
047%
131%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Raoul Bellanova
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.20
045%
133%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Sead Kolašinac
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.94
048%
134%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Isak Hien
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.74
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.89
050%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.67
O 1.5
15%
Model /90
0.73
052%
133%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò CambiaghiFWD	Bologna	4.43	46provisional	2.28	56%	30	020% 124% 219% 313% 49% 56% 6+8%
Jon RoweFWD	Bologna	2.72	57provisional	1.74	48%	22	024% 128% 221% 313% 47% 54% 6+2%
Nicola ZalewskiMID	Atalanta	2.62	58provisional	1.68	48%	26	023% 129% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Éderson José dos Santos Lourenço da SilvaMID	Atalanta	1.82	76provisional	1.55	44%	62	025% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Riccardo OrsoliniFWD	Bologna	2.03	62provisional	1.39	39%	52	030% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Charles De KetelaereMID	Atalanta	1.84	64provisional	1.30	37%	57	031% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	1.91	61provisional	1.29	36%	43	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Benjamín DomínguezFWD	Bologna	2.44	47provisional	1.27	35%	24	037% 128% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Honest AhanorDEF	Atalanta	1.63	63provisional	1.13	31%	17	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	1.60	60provisional	1.06	29%	30	042% 129% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Emil HolmDEF	Bologna	1.70	56provisional	1.06	29%	22	043% 128% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Juan Miranda GonzálezDEF	Bologna	1.22	77provisional	1.04	28%	55	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Giacomo RaspadoriFWD	Atalanta	1.46	61provisional	0.99	26%	11	041% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nikola KrstovićFWD	Atalanta	1.58	54provisional	0.95	25%	24	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gianluca ScamaccaFWD	Atalanta	1.60	53provisional	0.94	25%	20	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kamal Deen SulemanaFWD	Atalanta	2.02	40provisional	0.90	23%	12	047% 131% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Raoul BellanovaMID	Atalanta	1.20	65provisional	0.87	22%	51	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Sead KolašinacDEF	Atalanta	0.94	75provisional	0.77	19%	39	048% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Isak HienDEF	Atalanta	0.89	74provisional	0.74	17%	51	050% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	0.73	82provisional	0.67	15%	63	052% 133% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards41 playersHighest: Sead Kolašinac, 0.24 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Sead Kolašinac
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.29
079%
119%
22%
3+0%
Isak Hien
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.23
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.28
080%
118%
22%
3+0%
Nicola Zalewski
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.32
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Giorgio Scalvini
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.25
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.31
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Martin Vitík
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.22
084%
114%
2+1%
Honest Ahanor
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.25
084%
114%
2+1%
Lorenzo Bernasconi
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.22
085%
114%
2+1%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.24
085%
113%
21%
3+0%
Marten de Roon
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.18
085%
114%
2+1%
Jhon Janer Lucumí Bonilla
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.17
086%
113%
2+1%
Nicolò Casale
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.24
086%
113%
2+1%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.16
086%
113%
2+1%
Emil Holm
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.22
087%
111%
2+1%
Juan Miranda González
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.16
087%
112%
2+1%
Torbjørn Heggem
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.16
087%
112%
2+1%
Lorenzo De Silvestri
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.23
088%
111%
2+1%
Berat Djimsiti
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
112%
2+1%
Charalampos Lykogiannis
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.19
088%
111%
2+1%
Nikola Krstović
FWD · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.22
088%
111%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Sead KolašinacDEF	Atalanta	0.29	75provisional	0.24	21%	39	079% 119% 22% 3+0%
Isak HienDEF	Atalanta	0.28	74provisional	0.23	20%	51	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Nicola ZalewskiMID	Atalanta	0.32	58provisional	0.20	18%	26	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Giorgio ScalviniDEF	Atalanta	0.25	70provisional	0.19	17%	27	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	0.31	56provisional	0.19	17%	33	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Martin VitíkDEF	Bologna	0.22	70provisional	0.17	16%	16	084% 114% 2+1%
Honest AhanorDEF	Atalanta	0.25	63provisional	0.17	16%	17	084% 114% 2+1%
Lorenzo BernasconiMID	Atalanta	0.22	68provisional	0.16	15%	19	085% 114% 2+1%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	0.24	60provisional	0.16	15%	30	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
Marten de RoonMID	Atalanta	0.18	82provisional	0.16	15%	67	085% 114% 2+1%
Jhon Janer Lucumí BonillaDEF	Bologna	0.17	80provisional	0.16	14%	57	086% 113% 2+1%
Nicolò CasaleDEF	Bologna	0.24	59provisional	0.15	14%	21	086% 113% 2+1%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	0.16	82provisional	0.15	14%	63	086% 113% 2+1%
Emil HolmDEF	Bologna	0.22	56provisional	0.14	13%	22	087% 111% 2+1%
Juan Miranda GonzálezDEF	Bologna	0.16	77provisional	0.14	13%	55	087% 112% 2+1%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	Bologna	0.16	78provisional	0.14	13%	24	087% 112% 2+1%
Lorenzo De SilvestriDEF	Bologna	0.23	52provisional	0.13	12%	20	088% 111% 2+1%
Berat DjimsitiDEF	Atalanta	0.16	76provisional	0.13	12%	61	088% 112% 2+1%
Charalampos LykogiannisDEF	Bologna	0.19	62provisional	0.13	12%	20	088% 111% 2+1%
Nikola KrstovićFWD	Atalanta	0.22	54provisional	0.13	12%	24	088% 111% 2+1%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves41 playersHighest: Marco Carnesecchi, 2.56 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Marco Carnesecchi
GK · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.56
O 2.5
46%
Model /90
2.56
010%
121%
224%
320%
413%
57%
6+6%
Łukasz Skorupski
GK · Bologna
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
2.49
O 2.5
44%
Model /90
2.60
010%
121%
224%
319%
412%
57%
6+6%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jhon Janer Lucumí Bonilla
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Torbjørn Heggem
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Juan Miranda González
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Martin Vitík
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Riccardo Orsolini
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nicolò Casale
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jon Rowe
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nadir Zortea
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Emil Holm
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nikola Moro
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Marten de Roon
MID · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Berat Djimsiti
DEF · Atalanta
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Marco CarnesecchiGK	Atalanta	2.56	90provisional	2.56	46%	71	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
Łukasz SkorupskiGK	Bologna	2.60	86provisional	2.49	44%	44	010% 121% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+6%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	63	0100% 1+0%
Jhon Janer Lucumí BonillaDEF	Bologna	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	57	0100% 1+0%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	Bologna	0.00	78provisional	0.00	—	24	0100% 1+0%
Juan Miranda GonzálezDEF	Bologna	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	55	0100% 1+0%
Martin VitíkDEF	Bologna	0.00	70provisional	0.00	—	16	0100% 1+0%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	0.00	61provisional	0.00	—	43	0100% 1+0%
Charalampos LykogiannisDEF	Bologna	0.00	62provisional	0.00	—	20	0100% 1+0%
Riccardo OrsoliniFWD	Bologna	0.00	62provisional	0.00	—	52	0100% 1+0%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	0.00	60provisional	0.00	—	30	0100% 1+0%
Nicolò CasaleDEF	Bologna	0.00	59provisional	0.00	—	21	0100% 1+0%
Jon RoweFWD	Bologna	0.00	57provisional	0.00	—	22	0100% 1+0%
Nadir ZorteaDEF	Bologna	0.00	57provisional	0.00	—	21	0100% 1+0%
Emil HolmDEF	Bologna	0.00	56provisional	0.00	—	22	0100% 1+0%
Nikola MoroMID	Bologna	0.00	58provisional	0.00	—	39	0100% 1+0%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	0.00	56provisional	0.00	—	33	0100% 1+0%
Marten de RoonMID	Atalanta	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%
Berat DjimsitiDEF	Atalanta	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	61	0100% 1+0%
Lorenzo De SilvestriDEF	Bologna	0.00	52provisional	0.00	—	20	0100% 1+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.