Serie A · Italy

SassuolovTorino

Saturday 29 August at 17:30MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolorelineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.0

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls43 playersHighest: Saúl Coco, 1.49 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Saúl CocoDEF	Torino	1.51	89provisional	1.49	43%	67	023% 133% 225% 312% 45% 51% 6+1%
Cesare CasadeiMID	Torino	1.98	63provisional	1.38	39%	38	030% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gvidas GineitisMID	Torino	2.13	54provisional	1.28	36%	42	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Nikola VlašićMID	Torino	1.34	77provisional	1.15	32%	63	034% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Valentino LazaroMID	Torino	1.44	72provisional	1.14	32%	57	035% 133% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Giovanni SimeoneFWD	Torino	1.43	70provisional	1.12	31%	31	035% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Domenico BerardiFWD	Sassuolo	1.30	76provisional	1.10	30%	25	035% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Guillermo MaripánDEF	Torino	1.20	82provisional	1.09	30%	52	035% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Armand LaurientéFWD	Sassuolo	1.38	69provisional	1.06	29%	36	037% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kristian ThorstvedtMID	Sassuolo	1.22	77provisional	1.04	28%	30	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Tackles43 playersHighest: Guillermo Maripán, 1.63 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Guillermo MaripánDEF	Torino	1.80	82provisional	1.63	46%	52	023% 130% 223% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Saúl CocoDEF	Torino	1.58	89provisional	1.55	45%	67	024% 132% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Nikola VlašićMID	Torino	1.81	77provisional	1.55	44%	63	026% 130% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Emirhan İlkhanMID	Torino	2.44	54provisional	1.45	40%	15	030% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Rafa ObradorDEF	Torino	1.73	70provisional	1.35	38%	14	031% 131% 221% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ardian IsmajliDEF	Torino	1.55	76provisional	1.31	37%	23	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Sebastian WalukiewiczDEF	Sassuolo	1.40	84provisional	1.31	37%	33	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Kristian ThorstvedtMID	Sassuolo	1.53	77provisional	1.30	36%	30	032% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ulisses GarciaDEF	Sassuolo	1.60	73provisional	1.29	36%	11	033% 131% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Nemanja MatićMID	Sassuolo	1.43	79provisional	1.25	35%	33	032% 133% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Gvidas GineitisMID	Torino	2.05	54provisional	1.23	34%	42	036% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Valentino LazaroMID	Torino	1.52	72provisional	1.21	33%	57	035% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Adam MasinaDEF	Torino	1.66	65provisional	1.20	33%	24	038% 129% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Zakaria AboukhlalFWD	Torino	2.93	34provisional	1.11	29%	7	042% 129% 215% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Woyo CoulibalyDEF	Sassuolo	1.90	52provisional	1.10	29%	15	040% 131% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Josh DoigDEF	Sassuolo	1.54	64provisional	1.10	30%	24	040% 130% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Luca LipaniMID	Sassuolo	2.29	43provisional	1.09	28%	12	042% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Cesare CasadeiMID	Torino	1.50	63provisional	1.05	28%	38	041% 131% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Cristiano BiraghiDEF	Torino	1.62	58provisional	1.04	28%	18	045% 126% 215% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Domenico BerardiFWD	Sassuolo	1.14	76provisional	0.96	25%	25	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ismaël KonéMID	Sassuolo	1.07	79provisional	0.94	24%	34	041% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Aster VranckxMID	Sassuolo	1.94	43provisional	0.93	24%	10	046% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Niels NkounkouDEF	Torino	2.59	32provisional	0.91	22%	3	050% 128% 212% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Jay IdzesDEF	Sassuolo	0.92	88provisional	0.89	23%	35	043% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Fali CandéDEF	Sassuolo	1.75	42provisional	0.82	20%	7	051% 129% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ivan IlićMID	Torino	1.44	49provisional	0.79	20%	17	050% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Marcus PedersenDEF	Torino	1.13	60provisional	0.76	19%	46	051% 130% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Armand LaurientéFWD	Sassuolo	0.96	69provisional	0.73	17%	36	050% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Adrien TamèzeMID	Torino	1.53	41provisional	0.69	17%	23	057% 126% 211% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Ali DembéléDEF	Torino	2.32	25provisional	0.64	15%	5	060% 126% 29% 33% 41% 51% 6+0%
Cristian VolpatoMID	Sassuolo	1.21	44provisional	0.60	13%	16	059% 128% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Giovanni SimeoneFWD	Torino	0.63	70provisional	0.49	9%	31	063% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Tino AnjorinMID	Torino	2.27	18provisional	0.47	9%	2	065% 126% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Alieu NjieFWD	Torino	1.90	22provisional	0.46	8%	6	065% 127% 27% 31% 4+0%
Edoardo IannoniMID	Sassuolo	2.31	17provisional	0.43	8%	3	070% 123% 25% 32% 41% 50% 6+0%
Duván ZapataFWD	Torino	0.77	48provisional	0.41	8%	22	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Ché AdamsFWD	Torino	0.55	66provisional	0.41	7%	58	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Andrea PinamontiFWD	Sassuolo	0.41	72provisional	0.32	5%	31	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Sandro KulenovićFWD	Torino	1.16	23provisional	0.29	5%	4	078% 117% 24% 31% 4+0%
Nicholas PieriniFWD	Sassuolo	1.47	12provisional	0.20	2%	2	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Luca MoroFWD	Sassuolo	0.77	14provisional	0.12	1%	1	089% 19% 21% 3+0%
Alberto PaleariGK	Torino	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	30	0100% 1+0%
Arijanet MurićGK	Sassuolo	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	32	0100% 1+0%

All 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots43 playersHighest: Andrea Pinamonti, 2.33 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Andrea PinamontiFWD	Sassuolo	2.94	72provisional	2.33	64%	31	015% 122% 222% 318% 412% 56% 6+5%
Giovanni SimeoneFWD	Torino	2.94	70provisional	2.29	63%	31	014% 123% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+5%
Armand LaurientéFWD	Sassuolo	2.86	69provisional	2.18	61%	36	015% 124% 223% 317% 411% 55% 6+4%
Domenico BerardiFWD	Sassuolo	2.29	76provisional	1.93	55%	25	017% 127% 225% 316% 49% 54% 6+2%
Ché AdamsFWD	Torino	2.24	66provisional	1.64	46%	58	024% 129% 222% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Kristian ThorstvedtMID	Sassuolo	1.72	77provisional	1.47	42%	30	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Duván ZapataFWD	Torino	2.67	48provisional	1.44	39%	22	033% 129% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Nikola VlašićMID	Torino	1.46	77provisional	1.26	35%	63	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Cristian VolpatoMID	Sassuolo	2.54	44provisional	1.25	34%	16	036% 130% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Cesare CasadeiMID	Torino	1.34	63provisional	0.93	24%	38	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Fouls won43 playersHighest: Kristian Thorstvedt, 1.77 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kristian ThorstvedtMID	Sassuolo	2.08	77provisional	1.77	51%	30	022% 128% 223% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Ismaël KonéMID	Sassuolo	1.81	79provisional	1.59	46%	34	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Armand LaurientéFWD	Sassuolo	1.91	69provisional	1.46	42%	36	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Domenico BerardiFWD	Sassuolo	1.73	76provisional	1.46	42%	25	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Giovanni SimeoneFWD	Torino	1.66	70provisional	1.30	37%	31	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Nemanja MatićMID	Sassuolo	1.38	79provisional	1.20	34%	33	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nikola VlašićMID	Torino	1.29	77provisional	1.11	31%	63	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Andrea PinamontiFWD	Sassuolo	1.36	72provisional	1.08	29%	31	037% 133% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Aster VranckxMID	Sassuolo	2.18	43provisional	1.05	28%	10	042% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Gvidas GineitisMID	Torino	1.52	54provisional	0.91	24%	42	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Cards43 playersHighest: Saúl Coco, 0.21 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Saúl CocoDEF	Torino	0.21	89provisional	0.21	19%	67	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Gvidas GineitisMID	Torino	0.30	54provisional	0.18	16%	42	084% 115% 22% 3+0%
Kristian ThorstvedtMID	Sassuolo	0.21	77provisional	0.18	16%	30	084% 115% 21% 3+0%
Guillermo MaripánDEF	Torino	0.19	82provisional	0.17	16%	52	084% 114% 2+1%
Ardian IsmajliDEF	Torino	0.19	76provisional	0.16	15%	23	085% 114% 2+1%
Sebastian WalukiewiczDEF	Sassuolo	0.17	84provisional	0.16	15%	33	085% 114% 2+1%
Valentino LazaroMID	Torino	0.20	72provisional	0.16	14%	57	086% 113% 2+1%
Cesare CasadeiMID	Torino	0.22	63provisional	0.16	14%	38	086% 113% 2+1%
Adam MasinaDEF	Torino	0.20	65provisional	0.14	13%	24	087% 112% 2+1%
Luca LipaniMID	Sassuolo	0.29	43provisional	0.14	13%	12	087% 112% 2+1%

10 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 43 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Alberto Paleari, 2.99 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Alberto PaleariGK	Torino	2.99	90provisional	2.99	55%	30	07% 116% 222% 320% 415% 510% 6+10%
Arijanet MurićGK	Sassuolo	2.79	90provisional	2.79	51%	32	08% 118% 223% 320% 414% 59% 6+8%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.