Championship · England

MillwallvWrexham

Wednesday 2 September at 19:45The Denlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls45 playersHighest: Josh Coburn, 1.26 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.72	66provisional	1.26	36%	38	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.53	69provisional	1.18	33%	30	036% 131% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	1.44	69provisional	1.10	30%	58	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.30	73provisional	1.05	29%	48	039% 132% 218% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.03	87provisional	1.00	27%	66	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	1.52	57provisional	0.96	26%	10	047% 127% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	1.18	73provisional	0.96	25%	34	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.95	89provisional	0.94	24%	83	039% 136% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	1.15	69provisional	0.89	23%	45	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 5+0%
Luke CundleMID	Millwall	1.76	45provisional	0.88	23%	26	048% 128% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Tackles45 playersHighest: George Dobson, 2.24 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	2.77	73provisional	2.24	59%	34	017% 123% 221% 316% 410% 56% 6+6%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	2.39	73provisional	1.94	52%	48	023% 124% 220% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	2.10	78provisional	1.81	51%	74	020% 129% 224% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
George ThomasonMID	Wrexham	2.14	76provisional	1.80	50%	30	024% 126% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Max CleworthDEF	Wrexham	1.75	88provisional	1.70	49%	40	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	2.16	71provisional	1.70	47%	30	027% 127% 220% 313% 47% 54% 6+3%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	2.13	69provisional	1.63	45%	45	029% 126% 219% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
James McCleanMID	Wrexham	2.57	57provisional	1.62	43%	10	035% 122% 216% 312% 47% 54% 6+4%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	2.31	62provisional	1.60	43%	34	030% 126% 219% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.59	87provisional	1.54	44%	66	025% 131% 223% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Shots45 playersHighest: Femi Azeez, 2.31 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	3.01	69provisional	2.31	61%	58	017% 122% 221% 317% 411% 57% 6+6%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	2.65	63provisional	1.85	50%	60	025% 126% 220% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	2.46	66provisional	1.80	51%	38	023% 127% 222% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	2.19	69provisional	1.69	47%	30	026% 127% 221% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana BalloFWD	Millwall	2.30	60provisional	1.52	43%	25	030% 127% 220% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Josh WindassMID	Wrexham	2.33	59provisional	1.52	42%	31	029% 129% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+1%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	1.91	71provisional	1.50	43%	43	028% 130% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	2.05	51provisional	1.17	32%	21	038% 130% 217% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Aidomo EmakhuFWD	Millwall	2.80	36provisional	1.10	28%	20	044% 128% 214% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Caleb TaylorDEF	Millwall	1.21	80provisional	1.08	29%	25	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Fouls won45 playersHighest: Lewis O'Brien, 1.27 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lewis O'BrienMID	Wrexham	1.61	71provisional	1.27	36%	30	034% 130% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Kieffer MooreFWD	Wrexham	1.44	69provisional	1.11	31%	30	038% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.27	73provisional	1.03	28%	48	040% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	1.03	89provisional	1.02	27%	42	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.38	66provisional	1.01	27%	38	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	1.38	66provisional	1.01	27%	23	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Liberato Gianpaolo CacaceDEF	Wrexham	1.37	60provisional	0.92	25%	8	046% 129% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	0.82	90provisional	0.81	20%	40	045% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Oliver RathboneMID	Wrexham	1.62	45provisional	0.81	21%	14	051% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nathan BroadheadFWD	Wrexham	1.35	51provisional	0.77	19%	21	051% 130% 213% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Cards45 playersHighest: Callum Doyle, 0.17 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Callum DoyleDEF	Wrexham	0.18	85provisional	0.17	15%	34	085% 114% 2+1%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	0.16	87provisional	0.16	14%	66	086% 113% 2+1%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.15	89provisional	0.15	14%	83	086% 113% 2+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	0.20	69provisional	0.15	14%	58	086% 113% 2+1%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	0.19	73provisional	0.15	14%	48	086% 113% 2+1%
George DobsonMID	Wrexham	0.19	73provisional	0.15	14%	34	086% 113% 2+1%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	0.20	69provisional	0.15	14%	45	086% 113% 2+1%
Dominic HyamDEF	Wrexham	0.14	90provisional	0.14	13%	40	087% 112% 2+1%
Zak Norton SturgeDEF	Millwall	0.19	63provisional	0.13	12%	37	088% 111% 2+1%
Ben SheafMID	Wrexham	0.18	66provisional	0.13	12%	23	088% 111% 2+1%

10 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 45 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Arthur Okonkwo, 2.98 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Arthur OkonkwoGK	Wrexham	3.06	88provisional	2.98	55%	38	09% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Maxime Teremoana CrocombeGK	Millwall	2.54	90provisional	2.54	46%	23	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.