Championship · England

Stoke CityvNorwich City

Tuesday 1 September at 20:00Bet365 Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls52 playersHighest: Sorba Thomas, 1.11 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.14
035%
135%
219%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%
Pelle Elkjær Mattsson
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.14
037%
135%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Joshua Sargent
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.08
040%
135%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Million Manhoef
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.27
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ante Crnac
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.29
041%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Róbert Boženík
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
2.16
047%
128%
214%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Jovon Makama
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.44
046%
129%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.10
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Mohamed Toure
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.45
044%
134%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Kenny McLean
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
0.89
044%
135%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Lamine Cisse
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.54
049%
129%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tatsuki Seko
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.25
048%
130%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Ali Ahmed
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.10
045%
133%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Sam Gallagher
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.80
049%
132%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo Hansen
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.22
048%
131%
214%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Jacob Wright
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.45
050%
130%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Mirko Topić
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.11
048%
132%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Anis Ben Slimane
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.17
048%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Edmond-Paris Maghoma
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.19
048%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Kellen Fisher
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.92
048%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	1.14	87provisional	1.11	30%	45	035% 135% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Pelle Elkjær MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.14	83provisional	1.05	28%	33	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joshua SargentFWD	Norwich City	1.08	81provisional	0.98	26%	55	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Million ManhoefFWD	Stoke City	1.27	68provisional	0.96	25%	79	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ante CrnacFWD	Norwich City	1.29	67provisional	0.96	25%	49	041% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Róbert BoženíkFWD	Stoke City	2.16	40provisional	0.96	25%	22	047% 128% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	1.44	59provisional	0.94	25%	28	046% 129% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	1.10	76provisional	0.93	24%	36	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Mohamed ToureFWD	Norwich City	1.45	54provisional	0.87	22%	11	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	0.89	87provisional	0.86	22%	76	044% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Lamine CisseFWD	Stoke City	1.54	50provisional	0.85	22%	34	049% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tatsuki SekoMID	Stoke City	1.25	61provisional	0.85	22%	68	048% 130% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	1.10	69provisional	0.85	21%	19	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Sam GallagherFWD	Stoke City	1.80	41provisional	0.81	20%	41	049% 132% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo HansenMID	Norwich City	1.22	60provisional	0.81	20%	49	048% 131% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Jacob WrightMID	Norwich City	1.45	50provisional	0.80	20%	43	050% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Mirko TopićMID	Norwich City	1.11	65provisional	0.80	20%	16	048% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	1.17	61provisional	0.79	19%	55	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Edmond-Paris MaghomaMID	Norwich City	1.19	59provisional	0.78	19%	14	048% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	0.92	76provisional	0.78	19%	81	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%

20 of 52 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles52 playersHighest: Kenny McLean, 1.85 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Kenny McLean
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.85
O 1.5
55%
Model /90
1.91
017%
129%
226%
316%
48%
53%
6+1%
Pelle Elkjær Mattsson
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.83
O 1.5
54%
Model /90
2.00
017%
129%
226%
316%
48%
53%
6+1%
Tatsuki Seko
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.82
O 1.5
50%
Model /90
2.69
026%
125%
220%
314%
49%
54%
6+3%
Harry Darling
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.80
O 1.5
53%
Model /90
1.88
018%
128%
226%
316%
47%
53%
6+1%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.60
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
2.02
024%
130%
223%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo Hansen
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.59
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.39
026%
129%
221%
313%
47%
53%
6+1%
Ali Ahmed
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.57
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
2.04
024%
130%
224%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Mirko Topić
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.50
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.08
027%
129%
222%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.50
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.78
026%
130%
223%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Ben Pearson
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.48
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.39
031%
127%
220%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Kellen Fisher
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.65
027%
132%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Edmond-Paris Maghoma
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.11
028%
133%
222%
311%
44%
52%
6+1%
Maksym Talovierov
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.68
029%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Jacob Wright
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.41
034%
129%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Anis Ben Slimane
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.97
030%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
J. Tchamadeu
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.53
029%
133%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Mohammed Bosun Lawal
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.72
031%
131%
221%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Ben Wilmot
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.36
029%
135%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Aaron Cresswell
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.43
029%
135%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Jack Stacey
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.10
038%
128%
217%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	1.91	87provisional	1.85	55%	76	017% 129% 226% 316% 48% 53% 6+1%
Pelle Elkjær MattssonMID	Norwich City	2.00	83provisional	1.83	54%	33	017% 129% 226% 316% 48% 53% 6+1%
Tatsuki SekoMID	Stoke City	2.69	61provisional	1.82	50%	68	026% 125% 220% 314% 49% 54% 6+3%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	1.88	86provisional	1.80	53%	35	018% 128% 226% 316% 47% 53% 6+1%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	2.02	71provisional	1.60	46%	87	024% 130% 223% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo HansenMID	Norwich City	2.39	60provisional	1.59	45%	49	026% 129% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+1%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	2.04	69provisional	1.57	46%	19	024% 130% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mirko TopićMID	Norwich City	2.08	65provisional	1.50	44%	16	027% 129% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	1.78	76provisional	1.50	44%	36	026% 130% 223% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ben PearsonMID	Stoke City	2.39	56provisional	1.48	42%	44	031% 127% 220% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	1.65	76provisional	1.40	41%	81	027% 132% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Edmond-Paris MaghomaMID	Norwich City	2.11	59provisional	1.38	39%	14	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Maksym TalovierovDEF	Stoke City	1.68	73provisional	1.37	39%	16	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jacob WrightMID	Norwich City	2.41	50provisional	1.34	37%	43	034% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	1.97	61provisional	1.32	38%	55	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
J. TchamadeuDEF	Stoke City	1.53	77provisional	1.32	38%	67	029% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Mohammed Bosun LawalDEF	Stoke City	1.72	68provisional	1.31	37%	34	031% 131% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ben WilmotDEF	Stoke City	1.36	85provisional	1.28	37%	73	029% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aaron CresswellDEF	Stoke City	1.43	80provisional	1.27	36%	25	029% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jack StaceyDEF	Norwich City	2.10	54provisional	1.26	35%	77	038% 128% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%

20 of 52 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots52 playersHighest: Sorba Thomas, 1.95 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.95
O 1.5
55%
Model /90
2.01
018%
127%
224%
316%
48%
54%
6+3%
Joshua Sargent
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
1.75
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
1.94
022%
129%
223%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Million Manhoef
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.71
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
2.28
025%
128%
221%
313%
47%
53%
6+3%
Ante Crnac
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.85
030%
132%
220%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Jovon Makama
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.07
036%
127%
217%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Lamine Cisse
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.41
037%
127%
216%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Mohamed Toure
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.14
032%
133%
220%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Milan Smit
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.57
044%
127%
214%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.33
038%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Sam Gallagher
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
2.47
039%
131%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Róbert Boženík
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.47
044%
128%
214%
37%
44%
52%
6+1%
Tomáš Rigo
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.72
043%
129%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Pelle Elkjær Mattsson
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.09
040%
134%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.24
042%
132%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kenny McLean
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
0.96
042%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Tony Springett
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.18
045%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ali Ahmed
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.18
044%
133%
215%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo Hansen
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.29
047%
131%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tatsuki Seko
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.23
050%
129%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Edmond-Paris Maghoma
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.26
047%
132%
214%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	2.01	87provisional	1.95	55%	45	018% 127% 224% 316% 48% 54% 6+3%
Joshua SargentFWD	Norwich City	1.94	81provisional	1.75	49%	55	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Million ManhoefFWD	Stoke City	2.28	68provisional	1.71	47%	79	025% 128% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+3%
Ante CrnacFWD	Norwich City	1.85	67provisional	1.37	38%	49	030% 132% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	2.07	59provisional	1.35	36%	28	036% 127% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Lamine CisseFWD	Stoke City	2.41	50provisional	1.33	35%	34	037% 127% 216% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Mohamed ToureFWD	Norwich City	2.14	54provisional	1.28	35%	11	032% 133% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Milan SmitFWD	Stoke City	2.57	40provisional	1.14	30%	13	044% 127% 214% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	1.33	76provisional	1.12	31%	36	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sam GallagherFWD	Stoke City	2.47	41provisional	1.11	29%	41	039% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Róbert BoženíkFWD	Stoke City	2.47	40provisional	1.09	28%	22	044% 128% 214% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Tomáš RigoMID	Stoke City	1.72	54provisional	1.04	28%	31	043% 129% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Pelle Elkjær MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.09	83provisional	1.00	26%	33	040% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	1.24	71provisional	0.98	26%	87	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	0.96	87provisional	0.93	24%	76	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Tony SpringettFWD	Norwich City	2.18	38provisional	0.92	23%	15	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	1.18	69provisional	0.90	23%	19	044% 133% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo HansenMID	Norwich City	1.29	60provisional	0.86	22%	49	047% 131% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tatsuki SekoMID	Stoke City	1.23	61provisional	0.83	21%	68	050% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Edmond-Paris MaghomaMID	Norwich City	1.26	59provisional	0.83	21%	14	047% 132% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 52 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target52 playersHighest: Sorba Thomas, 0.79 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.79
O 0.5
53%
Model /90
0.81
047%
134%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Joshua Sargent
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.68
O 0.5
47%
Model /90
0.76
053%
132%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Million Manhoef
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.65
O 0.5
45%
Model /90
0.86
055%
130%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Mohamed Toure
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.60
O 0.5
43%
Model /90
1.00
057%
131%
210%
32%
41%
5+0%
Jovon Makama
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.56
O 0.5
39%
Model /90
0.86
061%
127%
29%
33%
41%
5+0%
Lamine Cisse
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.53
O 0.5
37%
Model /90
0.96
063%
126%
28%
32%
41%
5+0%
Ante Crnac
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.50
O 0.5
38%
Model /90
0.68
062%
128%
28%
32%
4+0%
Milan Smit
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.41
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
0.93
070%
122%
26%
32%
4+0%
Sam Gallagher
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.40
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.89
069%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.40
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.47
069%
125%
26%
31%
4+0%
Róbert Boženík
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.38
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.86
071%
122%
26%
31%
4+0%
Mathias Kvistgaarden
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
31
Proj.
0.35
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
1.01
073%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Anis Ben Slimane
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.50
072%
122%
24%
31%
4+0%
Tomáš Rigo
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.33
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.55
073%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Tony Springett
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.33
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.77
073%
121%
24%
31%
4+0%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.31
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.39
074%
121%
24%
3+1%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo Hansen
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.30
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.45
075%
120%
24%
3+1%
Ali Ahmed
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.38
076%
121%
23%
3+1%
Kenny McLean
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.30
076%
121%
23%
3+0%
Matěj Jurásek
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
33
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.78
077%
119%
24%
31%
4+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	0.81	87provisional	0.79	53%	45	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Joshua SargentFWD	Norwich City	0.76	81provisional	0.68	47%	55	053% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Million ManhoefFWD	Stoke City	0.86	68provisional	0.65	45%	79	055% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mohamed ToureFWD	Norwich City	1.00	54provisional	0.60	43%	11	057% 131% 210% 32% 41% 5+0%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	0.86	59provisional	0.56	39%	28	061% 127% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Lamine CisseFWD	Stoke City	0.96	50provisional	0.53	37%	34	063% 126% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Ante CrnacFWD	Norwich City	0.68	67provisional	0.50	38%	49	062% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Milan SmitFWD	Stoke City	0.93	40provisional	0.41	30%	13	070% 122% 26% 32% 4+0%
Sam GallagherFWD	Stoke City	0.89	41provisional	0.40	31%	41	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	0.47	76provisional	0.40	31%	36	069% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Róbert BoženíkFWD	Stoke City	0.86	40provisional	0.38	29%	22	071% 122% 26% 31% 4+0%
Mathias KvistgaardenFWD	Norwich City	1.01	31provisional	0.35	27%	36	073% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	0.50	61provisional	0.34	28%	55	072% 122% 24% 31% 4+0%
Tomáš RigoMID	Stoke City	0.55	54provisional	0.33	27%	31	073% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Tony SpringettFWD	Norwich City	0.77	38provisional	0.33	27%	15	073% 121% 24% 31% 4+0%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	0.39	71provisional	0.31	26%	87	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo HansenMID	Norwich City	0.45	60provisional	0.30	25%	49	075% 120% 24% 3+1%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	0.38	69provisional	0.29	24%	19	076% 121% 23% 3+1%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	0.30	87provisional	0.29	24%	76	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Matěj JurásekFWD	Norwich City	0.78	33provisional	0.28	23%	18	077% 119% 24% 31% 4+0%

20 of 52 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won52 playersHighest: Kenny McLean, 1.26 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Kenny McLean
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.30
032%
133%
220%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.21
034%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Pelle Elkjær Mattsson
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.26
035%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Joshua Sargent
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.17
038%
133%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Joon-Ho Bae
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.26
041%
132%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tomáš Rigo
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.64
045%
129%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Ali Ahmed
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.24
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Million Manhoef
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.23
044%
132%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.08
045%
132%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lamine Cisse
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.61
049%
128%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.67
053%
124%
213%
36%
43%
51%
6+0%
Jovon Makama
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.31
049%
129%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo Hansen
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.28
048%
131%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mohamed Toure
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.36
047%
133%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Ante Crnac
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.10
048%
132%
214%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Eric Junior Bocat
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.10
050%
129%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Ben Pearson
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.29
051%
129%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Kellen Fisher
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.92
049%
132%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Mirko Topić
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.07
050%
131%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Tatsuki Seko
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.14
052%
129%
212%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	1.30	87provisional	1.26	35%	76	032% 133% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	1.21	87provisional	1.17	32%	45	034% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Pelle Elkjær MattssonMID	Norwich City	1.26	83provisional	1.15	31%	33	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Joshua SargentFWD	Norwich City	1.17	81provisional	1.06	28%	55	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joon-Ho BaeMID	Stoke City	1.26	71provisional	1.00	26%	87	041% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tomáš RigoMID	Stoke City	1.64	54provisional	0.99	26%	31	045% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	1.24	69provisional	0.95	25%	19	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Million ManhoefFWD	Stoke City	1.23	68provisional	0.93	24%	79	044% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	1.08	76provisional	0.91	24%	36	045% 132% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lamine CisseFWD	Stoke City	1.61	50provisional	0.89	23%	34	049% 128% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher NzonziMID	Stoke City	1.67	46provisional	0.86	23%	30	053% 124% 213% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jovon MakamaFWD	Norwich City	1.31	59provisional	0.85	22%	28	049% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo HansenMID	Norwich City	1.28	60provisional	0.85	22%	49	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mohamed ToureFWD	Norwich City	1.36	54provisional	0.82	20%	11	047% 133% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Ante CrnacFWD	Norwich City	1.10	67provisional	0.81	20%	49	048% 132% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Eric Junior BocatDEF	Stoke City	1.10	65provisional	0.80	20%	59	050% 129% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ben PearsonMID	Stoke City	1.29	56provisional	0.80	20%	44	051% 129% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	0.92	76provisional	0.78	19%	81	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Mirko TopićMID	Norwich City	1.07	65provisional	0.78	19%	16	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Tatsuki SekoMID	Stoke City	1.14	61provisional	0.77	19%	68	052% 129% 212% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%

20 of 52 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards52 playersHighest: Pelle Elkjær Mattsson, 0.16 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Pelle Elkjær Mattsson
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.17
086%
113%
2+1%
J. Tchamadeu
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Ben Pearson
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.23
087%
112%
2+1%
Kellen Fisher
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.14
087%
112%
2+1%
Kenny McLean
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.14
087%
112%
2+1%
Lewis Baker
MID · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.16
087%
112%
2+1%
Maksym Talovierov
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
111%
2+1%
Harry Darling
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.13
088%
111%
2+1%
Mirko Topić
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.17
089%
110%
2+1%
José Angel Cordoba Chambers
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.15
089%
110%
2+1%
Ben Wilmot
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.12
089%
110%
2+1%
Anis Ben Slimane
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.17
089%
110%
2+1%
Ali Ahmed
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.15
089%
110%
2+1%
Jakov Medić
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.13
089%
110%
2+1%
Jacob Wright
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.21
089%
110%
2+1%
Shane Duffy
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.11
090%
110%
2+1%
Aaron Cresswell
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.12
090%
110%
2+1%
Mohammed Bosun Lawal
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.14
090%
19%
2+1%
Ruairi McConville
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.11
O 0.5
10%
Model /90
0.13
090%
19%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Pelle Elkjær MattssonMID	Norwich City	0.17	83provisional	0.16	14%	33	086% 113% 2+1%
J. TchamadeuDEF	Stoke City	0.17	77provisional	0.14	13%	67	087% 112% 2+1%
Ben PearsonMID	Stoke City	0.23	56provisional	0.14	13%	44	087% 112% 2+1%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	0.17	76provisional	0.14	13%	81	087% 112% 2+1%
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	0.14	87provisional	0.14	13%	45	087% 112% 2+1%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	0.14	87provisional	0.14	13%	76	087% 112% 2+1%
Lewis BakerMID	Stoke City	0.16	76provisional	0.14	13%	36	087% 112% 2+1%
Maksym TalovierovDEF	Stoke City	0.16	73provisional	0.13	12%	16	088% 111% 2+1%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	0.13	86provisional	0.13	12%	35	088% 111% 2+1%
Mirko TopićMID	Norwich City	0.17	65provisional	0.12	11%	16	089% 110% 2+1%
José Angel Cordoba ChambersDEF	Norwich City	0.15	71provisional	0.12	11%	62	089% 110% 2+1%
Ben WilmotDEF	Stoke City	0.12	85provisional	0.12	11%	73	089% 110% 2+1%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	0.17	61provisional	0.12	11%	55	089% 110% 2+1%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	0.15	69provisional	0.11	11%	19	089% 110% 2+1%
Jakov MedićDEF	Norwich City	0.13	77provisional	0.11	11%	16	089% 110% 2+1%
Jacob WrightMID	Norwich City	0.21	50provisional	0.11	11%	43	089% 110% 2+1%
Shane DuffyDEF	Norwich City	0.11	88provisional	0.11	10%	49	090% 110% 2+1%
Aaron CresswellDEF	Stoke City	0.12	80provisional	0.11	10%	25	090% 110% 2+1%
Mohammed Bosun LawalDEF	Stoke City	0.14	68provisional	0.11	10%	34	090% 19% 2+1%
Ruairi McConvilleDEF	Norwich City	0.13	72provisional	0.11	10%	33	090% 19% 2+1%

20 of 52 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves52 playersHighest: Vladan Kovačević, 2.86 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Vladan Kovačević
GK · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.86
O 2.5
52%
Model /90
2.86
08%
118%
222%
320%
414%
59%
6+9%
Viktor Johansson
GK · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.59
O 2.5
47%
Model /90
2.59
09%
120%
224%
320%
413%
57%
6+6%
Tommy Simkim
GK · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.34
O 2.5
41%
Model /90
2.34
012%
123%
225%
319%
411%
56%
6+5%
Kenny McLean
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Shane Duffy
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Harry Darling
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Pelle Elkjær Mattsson
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Joshua Sargent
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jakov Medić
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Kellen Fisher
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
José Angel Cordoba Chambers
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ruairi McConville
DEF · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ali Ahmed
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ante Crnac
FWD · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Mirko Topić
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Sorba Thomas
FWD · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ben Wilmot
DEF · Stoke City
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Anis Ben Slimane
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo Hansen
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Edmond-Paris Maghoma
MID · Norwich City
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Vladan KovačevićGK	Norwich City	2.86	90provisional	2.86	52%	45	08% 118% 222% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Viktor JohanssonGK	Stoke City	2.59	90provisional	2.59	47%	71	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
Tommy SimkimGK	Stoke City	2.34	90provisional	2.34	41%	15	012% 123% 225% 319% 411% 56% 6+5%
Kenny McLeanMID	Norwich City	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	76	0100% 1+0%
Shane DuffyDEF	Norwich City	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	49	0100% 1+0%
Harry DarlingDEF	Norwich City	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	35	0100% 1+0%
Pelle Elkjær MattssonMID	Norwich City	0.00	83provisional	0.00	—	33	0100% 1+0%
Joshua SargentFWD	Norwich City	0.00	81provisional	0.00	—	55	0100% 1+0%
Jakov MedićDEF	Norwich City	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	16	0100% 1+0%
Kellen FisherDEF	Norwich City	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	81	0100% 1+0%
José Angel Cordoba ChambersDEF	Norwich City	0.00	71provisional	0.00	—	62	0100% 1+0%
Ruairi McConvilleDEF	Norwich City	0.00	72provisional	0.00	—	33	0100% 1+0%
Ali AhmedMID	Norwich City	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	19	0100% 1+0%
Ante CrnacFWD	Norwich City	0.00	67provisional	0.00	—	49	0100% 1+0%
Mirko TopićMID	Norwich City	0.00	65provisional	0.00	—	16	0100% 1+0%
Sorba ThomasFWD	Stoke City	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	45	0100% 1+0%
Ben WilmotDEF	Stoke City	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	73	0100% 1+0%
Anis Ben SlimaneMID	Norwich City	0.00	61provisional	0.00	—	55	0100% 1+0%
Emiliano Marcondes Camargo HansenMID	Norwich City	0.00	60provisional	0.00	—	49	0100% 1+0%
Edmond-Paris MaghomaMID	Norwich City	0.00	59provisional	0.00	—	14	0100% 1+0%

20 of 52 players shown, ranked by projection.