Championship · England

SouthamptonvMillwall

Saturday 29 August at 15:00St. Mary's Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Shots on target v20260813-1536-sot · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls54 playersHighest: Josh Coburn, 1.44 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Josh Coburn
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.44
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.97
028%
130%
222%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.70
027%
132%
223%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Femi Azeez
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.65
033%
132%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Ryan Leonard
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.48
035%
131%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.36
034%
134%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Tristan Crama
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.19
033%
136%
220%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jake Cooper
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.09
034%
136%
220%
37%
42%
50%
6+0%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.76
040%
132%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Joe Bryan
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.32
041%
131%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Luke Cundle
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.02
045%
128%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana Ballo
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.52
042%
131%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Alfie Doughty
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.57
047%
128%
215%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Casper De Norre
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.06
041%
136%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Japhet Tanganga
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
0.90
041%
136%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Mihailo Ivanović
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.27
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Zak Norton Sturge
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.26
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
5+0%
Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.09
046%
133%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Billy Mitchell
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.15
049%
131%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Kuryu Matsuki
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.40
050%
130%
213%
35%
41%
5+0%
Raees Bangura-Williams
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
44
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.59
052%
128%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.97	66provisional	1.44	41%	38	028% 130% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	1.70	76provisional	1.42	41%	59	027% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	1.65	69provisional	1.26	36%	58	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.48	73provisional	1.21	34%	48	035% 131% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	1.36	78provisional	1.17	33%	34	034% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.19	87provisional	1.15	32%	66	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	1.09	89provisional	1.08	29%	83	034% 136% 220% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	1.76	53provisional	1.03	28%	12	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	1.32	69provisional	1.02	28%	45	041% 131% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Luke CundleMID	Millwall	2.02	45provisional	1.01	27%	26	045% 128% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana BalloFWD	Millwall	1.52	60provisional	1.00	28%	25	042% 131% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alfie DoughtyMID	Millwall	1.57	53provisional	0.93	25%	16	047% 128% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	1.06	78provisional	0.91	23%	74	041% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	0.90	89provisional	0.89	22%	42	041% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	1.27	63provisional	0.88	23%	60	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Zak Norton SturgeDEF	Millwall	1.26	63provisional	0.87	23%	37	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 5+0%
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	1.09	67provisional	0.82	20%	42	046% 133% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	1.15	62provisional	0.80	20%	34	049% 131% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Kuryu MatsukiMID	Southampton	1.40	51provisional	0.79	20%	13	050% 130% 213% 35% 41% 5+0%
Raees Bangura-WilliamsFWD	Millwall	1.59	44provisional	0.78	20%	13	052% 128% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%

20 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles54 playersHighest: Caspar Jander, 2.60 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
2.60
O 1.5
67%
Model /90
3.02
014%
120%
221%
317%
412%
58%
6+9%
Ryan Leonard
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
2.19
O 1.5
57%
Model /90
2.69
020%
122%
220%
315%
410%
56%
6+6%
Casper De Norre
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
2.04
O 1.5
57%
Model /90
2.37
017%
126%
224%
316%
49%
55%
6+3%
Joe Bryan
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.84
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
2.40
026%
124%
219%
314%
48%
54%
6+4%
Billy Mitchell
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.81
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.61
027%
125%
219%
313%
48%
54%
6+4%
Tristan Crama
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.74
O 1.5
50%
Model /90
1.80
021%
129%
224%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Welington Damascena Santos
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.62
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
2.84
032%
125%
217%
312%
47%
54%
6+3%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.60
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.90
025%
129%
222%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana Ballo
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.45
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.19
033%
127%
219%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.72
029%
131%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Zak Norton Sturge
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.41
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.03
033%
128%
219%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Femi Azeez
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.41
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.84
031%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Japhet Tanganga
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.42
027%
133%
222%
311%
44%
52%
6+1%
James Bree
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.36
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.66
031%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Ryan Manning
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.36
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.71
032%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Camiel Neghli
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.73
032%
130%
220%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Derek Mazou-Sacko
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.40
043%
122%
215%
310%
46%
53%
6+2%
Joe Aribo
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.17
035%
130%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Alfie Doughty
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.13
040%
126%
216%
39%
45%
52%
6+1%
Jack Stephens
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.39
033%
132%
220%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	3.02	78provisional	2.60	67%	34	014% 120% 221% 317% 412% 58% 6+9%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	2.69	73provisional	2.19	57%	48	020% 122% 220% 315% 410% 56% 6+6%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	2.37	78provisional	2.04	57%	74	017% 126% 224% 316% 49% 55% 6+3%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	2.40	69provisional	1.84	49%	45	026% 124% 219% 314% 48% 54% 6+4%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	2.61	62provisional	1.81	48%	34	027% 125% 219% 313% 48% 54% 6+4%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	1.80	87provisional	1.74	50%	66	021% 129% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Welington Damascena SantosDEF	Southampton	2.84	51provisional	1.62	43%	17	032% 125% 217% 312% 47% 54% 6+3%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	1.90	76provisional	1.60	45%	59	025% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana BalloFWD	Millwall	2.19	60provisional	1.45	40%	25	033% 127% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.72	74provisional	1.42	40%	39	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Zak Norton SturgeDEF	Millwall	2.03	63provisional	1.41	39%	37	033% 128% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	1.84	69provisional	1.41	39%	58	031% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	1.42	89provisional	1.40	40%	42	027% 133% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
James BreeDEF	Southampton	1.66	74provisional	1.36	38%	32	031% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ryan ManningDEF	Southampton	1.71	71provisional	1.36	38%	59	032% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	1.73	71provisional	1.35	38%	43	032% 130% 220% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Derek Mazou-SackoMID	Millwall	2.40	51provisional	1.35	36%	13	043% 122% 215% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
Joe AriboMID	Southampton	2.17	55provisional	1.32	35%	27	035% 130% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Alfie DoughtyMID	Millwall	2.13	53provisional	1.26	34%	16	040% 126% 216% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jack StephensDEF	Southampton	1.39	80provisional	1.24	35%	47	033% 132% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%

20 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots54 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 2.37 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
2.37
O 1.5
63%
Model /90
3.17
015%
122%
221%
317%
412%
57%
6+6%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
2.25
O 1.5
62%
Model /90
3.06
015%
123%
223%
317%
411%
56%
6+5%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
2.23
O 1.5
62%
Model /90
2.70
015%
123%
223%
318%
411%
56%
6+4%
Femi Azeez
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.97
O 1.5
55%
Model /90
2.57
021%
125%
222%
316%
49%
55%
6+3%
Mihailo Ivanović
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.58
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.27
029%
128%
220%
312%
47%
53%
6+2%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.56
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
2.66
028%
129%
220%
312%
46%
53%
6+2%
Josh Coburn
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.54
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.10
027%
129%
222%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Ross Stewart
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
3.12
034%
130%
218%
39%
45%
52%
6+1%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana Ballo
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.97
035%
128%
219%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Camiel Neghli
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.63
033%
131%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Cameron Archer
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.77
040%
129%
215%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Kuryu Matsuki
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.96
041%
130%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+1%
Tom Fellows
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.56
039%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Aidomo Emakhu
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
2.39
048%
128%
213%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Caleb Taylor
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.03
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Japhet Tanganga
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
0.93
041%
136%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Ryan Manning
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.14
044%
132%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Damion Downs
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
25
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
3.25
044%
134%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jake Cooper
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
0.88
043%
135%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Macaulay Langstaff
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
2.02
051%
127%
212%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	3.17	67provisional	2.37	63%	42	015% 122% 221% 317% 412% 57% 6+6%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	3.06	66provisional	2.25	62%	35	015% 123% 223% 317% 411% 56% 6+5%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	2.70	74provisional	2.23	62%	39	015% 123% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	2.57	69provisional	1.97	55%	58	021% 125% 222% 316% 49% 55% 6+3%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	2.27	63provisional	1.58	44%	60	029% 128% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	2.66	53provisional	1.56	43%	12	028% 129% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	2.10	66provisional	1.54	44%	38	027% 129% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Ross StewartFWD	Southampton	3.12	38provisional	1.32	35%	21	034% 130% 218% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana BalloFWD	Millwall	1.97	60provisional	1.30	37%	25	035% 128% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	1.63	71provisional	1.28	36%	43	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Cameron ArcherFWD	Southampton	2.77	38provisional	1.16	30%	30	040% 129% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Kuryu MatsukiMID	Southampton	1.96	51provisional	1.10	30%	13	041% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Tom FellowsMID	Southampton	1.56	60provisional	1.03	28%	31	039% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Aidomo EmakhuFWD	Millwall	2.39	36provisional	0.94	24%	20	048% 128% 213% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Caleb TaylorDEF	Millwall	1.03	80provisional	0.92	24%	25	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	0.93	89provisional	0.91	23%	42	041% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Ryan ManningDEF	Southampton	1.14	71provisional	0.90	24%	59	044% 132% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Damion DownsFWD	Southampton	3.25	25provisional	0.90	22%	4	044% 134% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.88	89provisional	0.88	22%	83	043% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Macaulay LangstaffFWD	Millwall	2.02	38provisional	0.86	22%	31	051% 127% 212% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target54 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 0.96 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Adam Armstrong
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.96
O 0.5
58%
Model /90
1.28
042%
133%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.93
O 0.5
58%
Model /90
1.26
042%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.76
O 0.5
49%
Model /90
1.29
051%
131%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.72
O 0.5
50%
Model /90
0.87
050%
133%
212%
33%
41%
5+0%
Mihailo Ivanović
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.71
O 0.5
47%
Model /90
1.02
053%
130%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Femi Azeez
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.69
O 0.5
47%
Model /90
0.90
053%
131%
212%
33%
41%
5+0%
Josh Coburn
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.68
O 0.5
47%
Model /90
0.93
053%
131%
212%
33%
41%
5+0%
Ross Stewart
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.60
O 0.5
42%
Model /90
1.43
058%
128%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Cameron Archer
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.45
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
1.08
067%
124%
27%
32%
4+0%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana Ballo
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.42
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.64
067%
125%
26%
31%
4+0%
Camiel Neghli
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.41
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.53
067%
126%
26%
31%
4+0%
Macaulay Langstaff
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.36
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.84
073%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Kuryu Matsuki
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.60
073%
122%
25%
31%
4+0%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.31
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.57
074%
121%
24%
3+1%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.30
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.31
074%
122%
23%
3+0%
Caleb Taylor
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.31
076%
120%
23%
3+0%
Jake Cooper
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.28
076%
121%
23%
3+0%
Raees Bangura-Williams
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
44
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.55
078%
118%
23%
3+1%
Tom Fellows
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.40
077%
120%
23%
3+0%
Damion Downs
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
25
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.91
078%
118%
23%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Adam ArmstrongFWD	Southampton	1.28	67provisional	0.96	58%	42	042% 133% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	1.26	66provisional	0.93	58%	35	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	1.29	53provisional	0.76	49%	12	051% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	0.87	74provisional	0.72	50%	39	050% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	1.02	63provisional	0.71	47%	60	053% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	0.90	69provisional	0.69	47%	58	053% 131% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	0.93	66provisional	0.68	47%	38	053% 131% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Ross StewartFWD	Southampton	1.43	38provisional	0.60	42%	21	058% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Cameron ArcherFWD	Southampton	1.08	38provisional	0.45	33%	30	067% 124% 27% 32% 4+0%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana BalloFWD	Millwall	0.64	60provisional	0.42	33%	25	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	0.53	71provisional	0.41	33%	43	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Macaulay LangstaffFWD	Millwall	0.84	38provisional	0.36	27%	31	073% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Kuryu MatsukiMID	Southampton	0.60	51provisional	0.34	27%	13	073% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	0.57	50provisional	0.31	26%	15	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF	Southampton	0.31	87provisional	0.30	26%	76	074% 122% 23% 3+0%
Caleb TaylorDEF	Millwall	0.31	80provisional	0.28	24%	25	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.28	89provisional	0.28	24%	83	076% 121% 23% 3+0%
Raees Bangura-WilliamsFWD	Millwall	0.55	44provisional	0.27	22%	13	078% 118% 23% 3+1%
Tom FellowsMID	Southampton	0.40	60provisional	0.27	23%	31	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Damion DownsFWD	Southampton	0.91	25provisional	0.25	22%	4	078% 118% 23% 3+0%

20 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won54 playersHighest: Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza, 2.60 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
2.60
O 1.5
68%
Model /90
3.53
012%
120%
221%
318%
413%
58%
6+8%
Ryan Manning
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.22
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.54
034%
131%
220%
39%
44%
51%
6+0%
Finn Azaz
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.37
035%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Kuryu Matsuki
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.00
040%
130%
217%
38%
44%
51%
6+1%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.27
037%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.28
037%
134%
219%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ryan Leonard
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.29
040%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Japhet Tanganga
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.05
037%
136%
218%
37%
42%
50%
6+0%
Josh Coburn
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.41
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Joe Aribo
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.47
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
0.88
043%
135%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.41
048%
131%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Samuel Edozie
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
25
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
2.94
049%
132%
212%
34%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tom Fellows
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.20
048%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana Ballo
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.16
050%
130%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Aidomo Emakhu
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.89
055%
127%
211%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Joe Bryan
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
0.95
052%
130%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Cameron Bragg
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.67
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.50
058%
126%
210%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Ryan Fraser
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.67
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
1.21
055%
129%
211%
34%
41%
5+0%
Femi Azeez
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.66
O 1.5
15%
Model /90
0.85
054%
131%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID	Southampton	3.53	66provisional	2.60	68%	35	012% 120% 221% 318% 413% 58% 6+8%
Ryan ManningDEF	Southampton	1.54	71provisional	1.22	34%	59	034% 131% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Finn AzazMID	Southampton	1.37	74provisional	1.13	31%	39	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kuryu MatsukiMID	Southampton	2.00	51provisional	1.13	30%	13	040% 130% 217% 38% 44% 51% 6+1%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	1.27	78provisional	1.09	30%	34	037% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	1.28	76provisional	1.07	29%	59	037% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	1.29	73provisional	1.05	29%	48	040% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	1.05	89provisional	1.03	28%	42	037% 136% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	1.41	66provisional	1.03	28%	38	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joe AriboMID	Southampton	1.47	55provisional	0.89	23%	27	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF	Southampton	0.88	87provisional	0.86	21%	76	043% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	1.41	53provisional	0.82	21%	12	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Samuel EdozieFWD	Southampton	2.94	25provisional	0.81	19%	5	049% 132% 212% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tom FellowsMID	Southampton	1.20	60provisional	0.79	19%	31	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana BalloFWD	Millwall	1.16	60provisional	0.77	19%	25	050% 130% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Aidomo EmakhuFWD	Millwall	1.89	36provisional	0.75	18%	20	055% 127% 211% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	0.95	69provisional	0.73	18%	45	052% 130% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Cameron BraggMID	Southampton	1.50	40provisional	0.67	17%	7	058% 126% 210% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Ryan FraserFWD	Southampton	1.21	50provisional	0.67	16%	15	055% 129% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	0.85	69provisional	0.66	15%	58	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%

20 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards54 playersHighest: Flynn Downes, 0.27 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Flynn Downes
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.32
076%
120%
23%
3+0%
Gavin Bazunu
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.25
078%
120%
23%
3+0%
Aaron Ramsdale
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.18
083%
115%
2+2%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.19
084%
115%
2+1%
Tristan Crama
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.18
084%
115%
2+1%
Jake Cooper
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.18
084%
115%
2+1%
Femi Azeez
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.23
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Ryan Leonard
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.21
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Joe Bryan
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.22
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Caspar Jander
MID · Southampton
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.18
086%
113%
2+1%
Zak Norton Sturge
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.22
086%
113%
2+1%
Japhet Tanganga
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.15
086%
113%
2+1%
Joshua Quarshie
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana Ballo
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.20
088%
111%
2+1%
Alfie Doughty
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.21
088%
111%
2+1%
Nathan Wood-Gordon
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Luke Cundle
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.25
089%
110%
2+1%
Cyle Larin
FWD · Southampton
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.21
089%
110%
2+1%
Casper De Norre
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.14
089%
110%
2+1%
Billy Mitchell
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.17
089%
110%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Flynn DownesMID	Southampton	0.32	76provisional	0.27	24%	59	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Gavin BazunuGK	Southampton	0.25	90provisional	0.25	22%	19	078% 120% 23% 3+0%
Aaron RamsdaleGK	Southampton	0.18	90provisional	0.18	17%	30	083% 115% 2+2%
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF	Southampton	0.19	87provisional	0.18	16%	76	084% 115% 2+1%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	0.18	87provisional	0.18	16%	66	084% 115% 2+1%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.18	89provisional	0.18	16%	83	084% 115% 2+1%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	0.23	69provisional	0.18	16%	58	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	0.21	73provisional	0.17	16%	48	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	0.22	69provisional	0.17	16%	45	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Caspar JanderMID	Southampton	0.18	78provisional	0.16	14%	34	086% 113% 2+1%
Zak Norton SturgeDEF	Millwall	0.22	63provisional	0.15	14%	37	086% 113% 2+1%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	0.15	89provisional	0.15	14%	42	086% 113% 2+1%
Joshua QuarshieDEF	Southampton	0.17	73provisional	0.14	13%	11	087% 112% 2+1%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana BalloFWD	Millwall	0.20	60provisional	0.13	12%	25	088% 111% 2+1%
Alfie DoughtyMID	Millwall	0.21	53provisional	0.13	12%	16	088% 111% 2+1%
Nathan Wood-GordonDEF	Southampton	0.15	72provisional	0.12	12%	40	088% 111% 2+1%
Luke CundleMID	Millwall	0.25	45provisional	0.12	11%	26	089% 110% 2+1%
Cyle LarinFWD	Southampton	0.21	53provisional	0.12	11%	12	089% 110% 2+1%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	0.14	78provisional	0.12	11%	74	089% 110% 2+1%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	0.17	62provisional	0.12	11%	34	089% 110% 2+1%

20 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves54 playersHighest: Maxime Teremoana Crocombe, 3.22 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Maxime Teremoana Crocombe
GK · Millwall
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
3.22
O 2.5
60%
Model /90
3.22
06%
115%
220%
320%
416%
511%
6+13%
Aaron Ramsdale
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.94
O 2.5
54%
Model /90
2.94
07%
117%
222%
320%
415%
59%
6+10%
Alex McCarthy
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.46
O 2.5
44%
Model /90
2.46
010%
122%
224%
319%
412%
57%
6+5%
Daniel Peretz
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
91
Proj.
2.44
O 2.5
43%
Model /90
2.41
011%
122%
224%
319%
412%
57%
6+5%
Gavin Bazunu
GK · Southampton
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.26
O 2.5
39%
Model /90
2.26
012%
124%
225%
318%
411%
55%
6+4%
Japhet Tanganga
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jake Cooper
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Tristan Crama
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Caleb Taylor
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Casper De Norre
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ryan Leonard
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Camiel Neghli
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Femi Azeez
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Joe Bryan
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Josh Coburn
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Zak Norton Sturge
DEF · Millwall
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Billy Mitchell
MID · Millwall
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Mihailo Ivanović
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana Ballo
FWD · Millwall
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
DEF · Southampton
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Maxime Teremoana CrocombeGK	Millwall	3.22	90provisional	3.22	60%	23	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+13%
Aaron RamsdaleGK	Southampton	2.94	90provisional	2.94	54%	30	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%
Alex McCarthyGK	Southampton	2.46	90provisional	2.46	44%	12	010% 122% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+5%
Daniel PeretzGK	Southampton	2.41	91provisional	2.44	43%	22	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+5%
Gavin BazunuGK	Southampton	2.26	90provisional	2.26	39%	19	012% 124% 225% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%
Japhet TangangaDEF	Millwall	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	42	0100% 1+0%
Jake CooperDEF	Millwall	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	83	0100% 1+0%
Tristan CramaDEF	Millwall	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	66	0100% 1+0%
Caleb TaylorDEF	Millwall	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	25	0100% 1+0%
Casper De NorreMID	Millwall	0.00	78provisional	0.00	—	74	0100% 1+0%
Ryan LeonardDEF	Millwall	0.00	73provisional	0.00	—	48	0100% 1+0%
Camiel NeghliFWD	Millwall	0.00	71provisional	0.00	—	43	0100% 1+0%
Femi AzeezMID	Millwall	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	58	0100% 1+0%
Joe BryanDEF	Millwall	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	45	0100% 1+0%
Josh CoburnFWD	Millwall	0.00	66provisional	0.00	—	38	0100% 1+0%
Zak Norton SturgeDEF	Millwall	0.00	63provisional	0.00	—	37	0100% 1+0%
Billy MitchellMID	Millwall	0.00	62provisional	0.00	—	34	0100% 1+0%
Mihailo IvanovićFWD	Millwall	0.00	63provisional	0.00	—	60	0100% 1+0%
Thierno Mamadou Lamarana BalloFWD	Millwall	0.00	60provisional	0.00	—	25	0100% 1+0%
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF	Southampton	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	76	0100% 1+0%

20 of 54 players shown, ranked by projection.