Championship · England

Blackburn RoversvMiddlesbrough

Saturday 22 August at 15:00Ewood Parklineups not announced

Referee

Tom Reeves

7 matches on record — under 15, so the model falls back toward the league mean

Fouls per game

20.4

-12% vs league

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formLuke Ayling over 0.5 shots: 9/10 of his last 10, 7 in a row
Last 20: 17/20 · 4/5 away · strip 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 0 2 2 · market 61% · best 1.91 (Coral) · bet365 1.57
formAidan Morris over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10
Last 20: 17/20 · 3/5 away · strip 2 0 2 1 1 2 0 3 5 1 · market 71% · best 1.40 (TalkSportBet) · bet365 1.40
opponentMiddlesbrough concede 12.3 fouls a game — 3rd most of 27 in the Championship
Over their last 10. Good news for Blackburn Rovers's foul-drawers.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 3 live calls

Riley McGreeover 2.50 Shots3.00 at bet365 · fair 2.62+14.5%
Callum Brittainover 1.50 Shots4.00 at bet365 · fair 3.65+9.6%
Aidan Morrisover 0.50 Shots1.44 at bet365 · fair 1.33+8.3%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls57 playersHighest: Will Lankshear, 1.26 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Will LankshearFWD	Middlesbrough	1.63	65provisional	1.26	36%	59	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Kyle JosephFWD	Middlesbrough	1.53	62provisional	1.17	32%	63	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Yuki OhashiFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.50	62provisional	1.12	31%	83	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Axel HenrikssonMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.72	44provisional	1.00	26%	18	041% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sam MorsyMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.21	67provisional	0.97	25%	52	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Hayden CarterDEF	Blackburn Rovers	1.00	82provisional	0.94	24%	26	039% 136% 217% 35% 41% 5+0%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	0.97	84provisional	0.92	23%	78	041% 136% 217% 35% 41% 5+0%
Makhtar GueyeFWD	Blackburn Rovers	2.00	31provisional	0.89	22%	60	045% 132% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Andri GudjohnsenFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.25	57provisional	0.89	23%	26	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Moussa BaradjiMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.30	53provisional	0.86	22%	32	046% 132% 215% 35% 42% 5+0%
Tom AtchesonDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.95	79provisional	0.86	21%	15	044% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Sondre TronstadMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.88	83provisional	0.83	20%	67	044% 136% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
Todd CantwellMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.08	63provisional	0.82	20%	66	046% 134% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	0.93	76provisional	0.82	20%	84	045% 135% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.83	86provisional	0.81	19%	78	045% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.82	86provisional	0.80	19%	25	046% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Harry PickeringDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.99	67provisional	0.79	19%	31	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Lewis MillerDEF	Blackburn Rovers	1.01	65provisional	0.78	19%	29	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Alex GilbertMID	Middlesbrough	1.21	51provisional	0.78	19%	28	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ryan HedgesFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.26	47provisional	0.77	19%	66	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ryoya MorishitaMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.88	74provisional	0.76	18%	38	047% 135% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Ryan AlebiosuDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.81	82provisional	0.76	18%	40	047% 135% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	0.86	76provisional	0.76	18%	80	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Adam ForshawMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.04	56provisional	0.73	17%	55	050% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Oladapo AfolayanFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.22	44provisional	0.71	17%	48	052% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Neto BorgesDEF	Middlesbrough	0.79	78provisional	0.70	16%	77	050% 134% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
David StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	0.89	65provisional	0.70	16%	35	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Leo CastledineMID	Middlesbrough	1.31	39provisional	0.69	16%	12	053% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Kristi MontgomeryMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.99	56provisional	0.69	16%	25	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Ashley PhillipsDEF	—	0.66	86provisional	0.64	14%	75	053% 133% 211% 32% 4+0%
Myles Peart-HarrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.06	46provisional	0.63	14%	50	056% 130% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Augustus KargboFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.39	30provisional	0.63	14%	18	055% 131% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
George PrattDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.67	80provisional	0.62	13%	10	054% 133% 210% 32% 4+0%
Sean McLoughlinDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.62	87provisional	0.61	13%	82	055% 133% 210% 32% 4+0%
Sidnei TavaresMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.25	35provisional	0.61	13%	13	057% 130% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Scott WhartonDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.84	60provisional	0.61	13%	12	056% 130% 210% 33% 4+1%
Alfie JonesDEF	Middlesbrough	0.72	70provisional	0.58	12%	64	057% 130% 210% 32% 4+0%
Nathan RedmondFWD	Blackburn Rovers	1.31	30provisional	0.57	12%	10	059% 128% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	0.60	82provisional	0.56	11%	73	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Yuri RibeiroDEF	Blackburn Rovers	0.70	65provisional	0.54	11%	38	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	0.76	55provisional	0.53	10%	46	060% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Sam SilveraFWD	Middlesbrough	0.94	37provisional	0.48	9%	33	063% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Sontje HansenFWD	Middlesbrough	1.18	25provisional	0.47	9%	19	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Jeremy SarmientoFWD	Middlesbrough	1.15	25provisional	0.45	8%	64	065% 127% 27% 31% 4+0%
Alex BanguraDEF	Middlesbrough	0.73	45provisional	0.43	8%	13	066% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Jayden FevrierFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.72	45provisional	0.42	8%	12	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Kaly SèneFWD	Middlesbrough	1.10	24provisional	0.42	7%	28	067% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
George EdmundsonDEF	Middlesbrough	0.65	51provisional	0.41	7%	32	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Marcus ForssFWD	Middlesbrough	1.05	24provisional	0.39	7%	25	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Sverre NypanMID	Middlesbrough	0.85	28provisional	0.36	5%	20	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Mathias JørgensenFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.59	41provisional	0.32	5%	20	074% 122% 24% 3+1%
Dion De NeveMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.68	30provisional	0.30	4%	27	075% 121% 24% 3+1%
Micah HamiltonFWD	Middlesbrough	0.66	21provisional	0.23	3%	17	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Sol BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	0.09	89provisional	0.09	0%	55	091% 18% 2+0%
Balázs TóthGK	Blackburn Rovers	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	41	0100% 1+0%
Radek VitekGK	Middlesbrough	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	42	0100% 1+0%
Aynsley PearsGK	Blackburn Rovers	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	53	0100% 1+0%

All 57 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots57 playersHighest: Morgan Whittaker, 2.20 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	2.53	76provisional	2.20	62%	80	014% 124% 224% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%
Yuki OhashiFWD	Blackburn Rovers	2.21	62provisional	1.61	45%	83	026% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	1.76	76provisional	1.53	44%	84	024% 131% 223% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
David StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	1.84	65provisional	1.41	40%	35	028% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Leo CastledineMID	Middlesbrough	2.77	39provisional	1.37	36%	12	032% 131% 219% 39% 45% 52% 6+2%
Ryoya MorishitaMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.48	74provisional	1.26	36%	38	030% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Will LankshearFWD	Middlesbrough	1.67	65provisional	1.26	35%	59	032% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	1.82	55provisional	1.20	33%	46	035% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Todd CantwellMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.57	63provisional	1.16	32%	66	036% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.19	84provisional	1.12	31%	78	034% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 57 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 57 →

Shots on target57 playersHighest: Morgan Whittaker, 0.66 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	0.76	76provisional	0.66	47%	80	053% 133% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	0.72	76provisional	0.63	46%	84	054% 132% 211% 32% 4+1%
David StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	0.77	65provisional	0.59	43%	35	057% 131% 210% 32% 4+0%
Yuki OhashiFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.80	62provisional	0.58	42%	83	058% 130% 29% 32% 4+1%
Will LankshearFWD	Middlesbrough	0.68	65provisional	0.51	39%	59	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Leo CastledineMID	Middlesbrough	0.97	39provisional	0.48	36%	12	064% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Andri GudjohnsenFWD	Blackburn Rovers	0.66	57provisional	0.45	35%	26	065% 126% 27% 31% 4+0%
Kyle JosephFWD	Middlesbrough	0.58	62provisional	0.42	34%	63	066% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
Ryoya MorishitaMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.46	74provisional	0.39	32%	38	068% 126% 25% 31% 4+0%
Todd CantwellMID	Blackburn Rovers	0.52	63provisional	0.39	31%	66	069% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%

10 of 57 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 57 →

Fouls won57 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 1.95 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	2.08	84provisional	1.95	57%	78	016% 127% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Todd CantwellMID	Blackburn Rovers	1.78	63provisional	1.31	36%	66	032% 131% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	1.46	76provisional	1.26	36%	84	030% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Oladapo AfolayanFWD	Blackburn Rovers	2.33	44provisional	1.25	34%	48	036% 131% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Will LankshearFWD	Middlesbrough	1.58	65provisional	1.18	33%	59	034% 132% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	1.36	76provisional	1.17	33%	80	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	1.26	82provisional	1.16	32%	73	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lewis MillerDEF	Blackburn Rovers	1.42	65provisional	1.06	29%	29	039% 132% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alex BanguraDEF	Middlesbrough	1.82	45provisional	1.00	27%	13	042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Myles Peart-HarrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.73	46provisional	0.96	25%	50	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 57 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 57 →

Saves4 playersHighest: Radek Vitek, 3.05 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Radek VitekGK	Middlesbrough	3.08	89provisional	3.05	56%	42	06% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Balázs TóthGK	Blackburn Rovers	2.56	89provisional	2.53	45%	41	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Sol BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	2.48	89provisional	2.46	44%	55	010% 122% 224% 319% 412% 57% 6+5%
Aynsley PearsGK	Blackburn Rovers	2.15	88provisional	2.11	35%	53	014% 126% 225% 317% 410% 55% 6+3%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.