PER90My betsAccount

Championship · England

West Ham UnitedvCharlton Athletic

London Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls43 playersHighest: Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez, 1.13 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.13
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.31
    034%
    135%
    220%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.52
    041%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Greg Docherty

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.17
    040%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.15
    040%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Conor Coventry

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.20
    041%
    133%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Crysencio Summerville

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.33
    042%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jarrod Bowen

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.96
    040%
    135%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    5+0%
  • Tyreece Campbell

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.29
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Miles Leaburn

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.57
    044%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Edson Omar Álvarez Velázquez

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.27
    044%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Tomáš Souček

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.14
    046%
    132%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • James Ward-Prowse

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.05
    045%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Niclas Füllkrug

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.67
    047%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sonny Carey

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.02
    046%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Lloyd Jones

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.84
    047%
    134%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Charlie Kelman

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.52
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Karoy Anderson

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.32
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Robert Apter

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.55
    052%
    127%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Kayne Ramsey

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.84
    049%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • James Bree

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.83
    049%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles43 playersHighest: Conor Coventry, 1.90 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Conor Coventry

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.90
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.34
    019%
    127%
    224%
    316%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Greg Docherty

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.81
    O 1.5
    53%
    Model /90
    2.15
    020%
    128%
    224%
    316%
    48%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Kayne Ramsey

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.53
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.69
    024%
    131%
    224%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.53
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.80
    024%
    131%
    224%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • James Ward-Prowse

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.50
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.85
    025%
    131%
    223%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Karoy Anderson

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    1.49
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.50
    030%
    128%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Sonny Carey

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.79
    025%
    132%
    223%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • James Bree

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.39
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.57
    026%
    133%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Edson Omar Álvarez Velázquez

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    1.38
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.95
    028%
    132%
    222%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Amari'i Bell

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.30
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.48
    028%
    134%
    222%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Lloyd Jones

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.30
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.36
    028%
    134%
    223%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Aaron Wan-Bissaka

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.32
    029%
    135%
    222%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • El Hadji Malick Diouf

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.24
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.32
    030%
    135%
    222%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tomáš Souček

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.24
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.63
    033%
    132%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Luke Chambers

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.61
    030%
    135%
    222%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Freddie Potts

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.20
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    2.03
    036%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Jean-Clair Todibo

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.47
    033%
    134%
    221%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Soungoutou Magassa

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    1.18
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    2.38
    041%
    127%
    216%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Oliver Scarles

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    1.10
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    2.10
    040%
    129%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Kyle Walker-Peters

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.62
    041%
    128%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots43 playersHighest: Jarrod Bowen, 2.50 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Jarrod Bowen

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    2.50
    O 1.5
    67%
    Model /90
    2.53
    012%
    122%
    223%
    318%
    412%
    57%
    6+7%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    2.34
    O 1.5
    64%
    Model /90
    2.72
    013%
    123%
    223%
    318%
    411%
    56%
    6+5%
  • Crysencio Summerville

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.94
    O 1.5
    51%
    Model /90
    2.68
    023%
    125%
    220%
    314%
    48%
    55%
    6+4%
  • Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.78
    O 1.5
    48%
    Model /90
    2.70
    025%
    127%
    220%
    313%
    48%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Tyreece Campbell

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.52
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.08
    029%
    129%
    220%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Niclas Füllkrug

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.48
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    2.89
    031%
    130%
    218%
    310%
    45%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.31
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.53
    032%
    132%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Miles Leaburn

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.30
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    2.20
    035%
    130%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • James Ward-Prowse

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.56
    033%
    131%
    219%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Tomáš Souček

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.24
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.64
    036%
    130%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Charlie Kelman

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    2.18
    041%
    129%
    216%
    38%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Robert Apter

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    1.13
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    2.24
    043%
    126%
    215%
    38%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Sonny Carey

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.11
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.36
    037%
    133%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Edson Omar Álvarez Velázquez

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    1.05
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.49
    040%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Greg Docherty

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.14
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Freddie Potts

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.49
    048%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Conor Coventry

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.86
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.06
    046%
    132%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Matt Godden

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    27
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    2.73
    052%
    129%
    211%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Soungoutou Magassa

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.56
    054%
    126%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Karoy Anderson

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.24
    053%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target43 playersHighest: Jarrod Bowen, 0.97 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Jarrod Bowen

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 0.5
    60%
    Model /90
    0.98
    040%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 0.5
    59%
    Model /90
    1.11
    041%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Crysencio Summerville

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.62
    O 0.5
    43%
    Model /90
    0.86
    057%
    129%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.60
    O 0.5
    42%
    Model /90
    0.92
    058%
    129%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Charlie Kelman

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.57
    O 0.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.08
    061%
    127%
    29%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Niclas Füllkrug

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.56
    O 0.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.10
    060%
    127%
    29%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Tomáš Souček

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.45
    O 0.5
    35%
    Model /90
    0.60
    065%
    126%
    27%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Robert Apter

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.43
    O 0.5
    32%
    Model /90
    0.85
    068%
    123%
    27%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Miles Leaburn

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.42
    O 0.5
    32%
    Model /90
    0.71
    068%
    125%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Tyreece Campbell

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.42
    O 0.5
    33%
    Model /90
    0.58
    067%
    125%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • James Ward-Prowse

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.40
    O 0.5
    32%
    Model /90
    0.49
    068%
    125%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.37
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.43
    070%
    124%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Sonny Carey

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.34
    O 0.5
    28%
    Model /90
    0.41
    072%
    123%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Greg Docherty

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.36
    074%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Matt Godden

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    27
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.98
    077%
    119%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Edson Omar Álvarez Velázquez

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.41
    076%
    120%
    23%
    3+1%
  • Freddie Potts

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.27
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.46
    077%
    119%
    23%
    3+1%
  • Soungoutou Magassa

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.47
    080%
    116%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Conor Coventry

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.22
    O 0.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.28
    080%
    117%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Ibrahim Fullah

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    32
    Proj.
    0.22
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.62
    081%
    117%
    22%
    3+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won43 playersHighest: Jarrod Bowen, 1.37 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Jarrod Bowen

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.38
    029%
    133%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Crysencio Summerville

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.33
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.83
    034%
    130%
    219%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.45
    034%
    132%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.21
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.40
    033%
    134%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.52
    043%
    131%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Greg Docherty

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.09
    044%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • James Ward-Prowse

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.12
    044%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sonny Carey

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.10
    044%
    133%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Tyreece Campbell

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.23
    046%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Miles Leaburn

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.50
    047%
    131%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Edson Omar Álvarez Velázquez

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.20
    047%
    132%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Tomáš Souček

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.07
    049%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Amari'i Bell

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.89
    048%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Conor Coventry

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.96
    049%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • El Hadji Malick Diouf

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.81
    049%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Freddie Potts

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.27
    053%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Kayne Ramsey

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.82
    051%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Lloyd Jones

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.77
    050%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Charlie Kelman

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.37
    054%
    128%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Robert Apter

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.41
    056%
    126%
    211%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards43 playersHighest: Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima, 0.15 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.18
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Jean-Clair Todibo

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.18
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Greg Docherty

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • James Bree

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.15
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Edson Omar Álvarez Velázquez

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.19
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Lloyd Jones

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Conor Coventry

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.16
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Kayne Ramsey

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.14
    089%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Tomáš Souček

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.16
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Sonny Carey

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.15
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Joe Rankin-Costello

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.30
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • James Ward-Prowse

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.15
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • El Hadji Malick Diouf

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.12
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Luke Chambers

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.15
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Amari'i Bell

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Max Kilman

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.12
    090%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Karoy Anderson

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.19
    090%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Aaron Wan-Bissaka

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.10
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.11
    090%
    19%
    2+1%
  • Crysencio Summerville

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.10
    O 0.5
    9%
    Model /90
    0.14
    091%
    19%
    2+1%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves43 playersHighest: Thomas Kaminski, 2.96 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Thomas Kaminski

    GK · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.96
    O 2.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.96
    07%
    117%
    222%
    320%
    415%
    59%
    6+10%
  • Alphonse Areola

    GK · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    2.66
    O 2.5
    48%
    Model /90
    2.72
    09%
    120%
    223%
    320%
    413%
    58%
    6+7%
  • Mads Hermansen

    GK · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.42
    O 2.5
    43%
    Model /90
    2.42
    011%
    122%
    224%
    319%
    412%
    56%
    6+5%
  • Lloyd Jones

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Kayne Ramsey

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Amari'i Bell

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • James Bree

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Greg Docherty

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Conor Coventry

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Sonny Carey

    MID · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Luke Chambers

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Tyreece Campbell

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jarrod Bowen

    FWD · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Macaulay Gillesphey

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • El Hadji Malick Diouf

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Aaron Wan-Bissaka

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Max Kilman

    DEF · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Reece Burke

    DEF · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima

    MID · West Ham United

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Miles Leaburn

    FWD · Charlton Athletic

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.