Championship · England

MiddlesbroughvLincoln City

Saturday 15 August at 15:00Riverside Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Robert Madley

29 matches on record

Fouls per game

21.9

-3% vs league

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls23 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 1.31 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	1.43	82provisional	1.31	38%	74	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	1.19	89provisional	1.18	33%	44	031% 136% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	1.16	89provisional	1.14	31%	24	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Middlesbrough	1.27	77provisional	1.08	30%	34	037% 133% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	1.33	73provisional	1.08	30%	72	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alfie JonesDEF	Middlesbrough	1.07	86provisional	1.02	27%	21	037% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Samuel George EdmundsonDEF	Middlesbrough	1.10	75provisional	0.92	24%	26	042% 134% 216% 36% 41% 5+0%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	1.18	68provisional	0.89	23%	49	044% 133% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	1.29	60provisional	0.85	22%	33	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Dávid StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	1.29	59provisional	0.85	22%	30	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 23 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 23 →

Tackles23 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 3.25 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	3.55	82provisional	3.25	77%	74	08% 115% 218% 318% 415% 510% 6+15%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	3.11	80provisional	2.75	69%	66	012% 119% 220% 318% 413% 58% 6+10%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Middlesbrough	2.67	77provisional	2.27	61%	34	018% 121% 221% 317% 411% 56% 6+6%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	2.20	89provisional	2.18	61%	44	014% 125% 224% 317% 410% 55% 6+4%
Alfie JonesDEF	Middlesbrough	2.09	86provisional	1.99	56%	21	017% 127% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Samuel SilveraFWD	Middlesbrough	2.77	47provisional	1.44	38%	14	032% 130% 218% 310% 45% 53% 6+2%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	1.90	68provisional	1.43	40%	49	030% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	1.37	89provisional	1.35	38%	24	029% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	1.51	78provisional	1.30	37%	44	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Alex GilbertMID	Middlesbrough	3.30	34provisional	1.24	31%	10	042% 127% 214% 37% 44% 53% 6+2%

10 of 23 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 23 →

Shots23 playersHighest: Finn Azaz, 3.97 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	4.60	78provisional	3.97	86%	44	05% 110% 214% 317% 417% 514% 6+24%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	5.05	68provisional	3.80	80%	49	08% 112% 214% 315% 415% 512% 6+24%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	3.39	73provisional	2.76	70%	72	011% 118% 220% 318% 414% 59% 6+9%
Dávid StrelecFWD	Middlesbrough	3.69	59provisional	2.43	64%	30	014% 122% 221% 317% 412% 57% 6+7%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	3.63	60provisional	2.41	62%	33	016% 122% 221% 316% 411% 57% 6+7%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	2.01	82provisional	1.84	53%	74	019% 128% 224% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Leo Alexander Francis CastledineMID	Middlesbrough	5.61	29provisional	1.81	46%	5	023% 131% 222% 311% 45% 53% 6+5%
Marcus ForssFWD	Middlesbrough	5.00	27provisional	1.49	35%	7	036% 129% 215% 38% 45% 53% 6+4%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	1.40	89provisional	1.39	40%	44	026% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Samuel SilveraFWD	Middlesbrough	2.47	47provisional	1.28	34%	14	034% 131% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%

10 of 23 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 23 →

Fouls won23 playersHighest: Aidan Morris, 3.04 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	3.33	82provisional	3.04	76%	74	08% 116% 220% 319% 415% 510% 6+11%
Morgan WhittakerFWD	Middlesbrough	2.24	68provisional	1.69	48%	49	024% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	1.81	80provisional	1.60	46%	66	024% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	1.95	73provisional	1.59	46%	72	025% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Finn AzazMID	Middlesbrough	1.70	78provisional	1.47	43%	44	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Alex BanguraDEF	Middlesbrough	2.94	42provisional	1.37	38%	7	035% 127% 218% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Samuel SilveraFWD	Middlesbrough	2.61	47provisional	1.36	36%	14	033% 131% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Middlesbrough	1.34	77provisional	1.14	32%	34	036% 132% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	1.54	60provisional	1.02	27%	33	040% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sontje HansenFWD	Middlesbrough	3.06	27provisional	0.91	22%	8	046% 132% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 23 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 23 →

Cards23 playersHighest: Solomon Brynn, 0.39 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Solomon BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	0.39	90provisional	0.39	32%	55	068% 126% 25% 3+1%
Adilson MalandaDEF	Middlesbrough	0.21	89provisional	0.21	19%	24	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Samuel George EdmundsonDEF	Middlesbrough	0.23	75provisional	0.20	18%	26	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Callum BrittainDEF	Middlesbrough	0.19	89provisional	0.19	17%	44	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
Alfie JonesDEF	Middlesbrough	0.20	86provisional	0.19	17%	21	083% 115% 2+2%
Luke AylingDEF	Middlesbrough	0.18	80provisional	0.16	14%	66	086% 113% 2+1%
Aidan MorrisMID	Middlesbrough	0.16	82provisional	0.15	13%	74	087% 112% 2+1%
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF	Middlesbrough	0.17	77provisional	0.14	13%	34	087% 112% 2+1%
Riley McGreeMID	Middlesbrough	0.21	60provisional	0.14	13%	33	087% 112% 2+1%
Tommy ConwayFWD	Middlesbrough	0.13	73provisional	0.10	10%	72	090% 19% 2+1%

10 of 23 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 23 →

Saves1 playersHighest: Solomon Brynn, 2.35 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Solomon BrynnGK	Middlesbrough	2.35	90provisional	2.35	41%	55	012% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.