PER90My betsAccount

Championship · England

Wolverhampton WanderersvBlackburn Rovers

Molineux Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Farai Hallam

39 matches on record

Fouls per game

23.0

+2% vs league

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value — 2 published calls

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls49 playersHighest: Yuki Ohashi, 1.25 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.25
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.64
    033%
    132%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.16
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.28
    033%
    135%
    220%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.15
    036%
    135%
    219%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Andri Lucas Guojohnsen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.50
    040%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryan Hedges

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.45
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.23
    041%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.03
    041%
    135%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.20
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.97
    049%
    127%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.07
    042%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    5+0%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.15
    042%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    5+0%
  • Makhtar Gueye

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    40
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    2.07
    050%
    127%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Harry Pickering

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.39
    046%
    130%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mathias Jörgensen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.50
    047%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jhon Adolfo Arias Andrade

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.64
    048%
    128%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Hee-Chan Hwang

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.67
    050%
    128%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.34
    050%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Augustus Kargbo

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    2.07
    050%
    131%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.12
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Hayden Carter

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.85
    047%
    135%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles49 playersHighest: Lewis Travis, 2.05 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    2.05
    O 1.5
    60%
    Model /90
    2.18
    014%
    126%
    226%
    318%
    410%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    2.00
    O 1.5
    59%
    Model /90
    2.18
    015%
    126%
    226%
    318%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.97
    O 1.5
    57%
    Model /90
    2.29
    017%
    126%
    225%
    317%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.64
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.71
    029%
    126%
    219%
    313%
    47%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciutto

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.63
    O 1.5
    47%
    Model /90
    2.01
    027%
    126%
    222%
    314%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Adam Forshaw

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    1.63
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    3.25
    031%
    126%
    217%
    312%
    47%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.58
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    2.03
    025%
    129%
    223%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.56
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.94
    025%
    130%
    223%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.51
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.89
    024%
    132%
    224%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Lewis Miller

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.46
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.78
    028%
    130%
    222%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ryan Alebiousu

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.44
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.58
    025%
    133%
    224%
    312%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Yerson Mosquera

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.43
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.60
    026%
    133%
    223%
    312%
    45%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Emmanuel Agbadou

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.42
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.53
    025%
    134%
    224%
    312%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Dion De Neve

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    1.40
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    3.52
    035%
    129%
    216%
    39%
    45%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Sean McLoughlin

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.39
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.41
    025%
    134%
    224%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    1.38
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.94
    032%
    129%
    220%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Tote António Gomes

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.53
    027%
    133%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • George Pratt

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.52
    026%
    135%
    224%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jackson Tchatchoua

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    2.04
    033%
    129%
    219%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Hayden Carter

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.45
    026%
    135%
    223%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots49 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 2.00 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    2.00
    O 1.5
    56%
    Model /90
    2.20
    017%
    127%
    224%
    316%
    49%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.53
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.00
    028%
    129%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    1.44
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    3.03
    039%
    126%
    214%
    39%
    45%
    53%
    6+4%
  • Andri Lucas Guojohnsen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.35
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.95
    033%
    130%
    219%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Jhon Adolfo Arias Andrade

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    1.28
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    2.35
    039%
    127%
    216%
    39%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ryan Hedges

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.74
    035%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Mathias Jörgensen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.20
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.98
    040%
    128%
    216%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.44
    037%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Hee-Chan Hwang

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    1.10
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    2.21
    043%
    128%
    215%
    38%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Makhtar Gueye

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    40
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    2.42
    046%
    127%
    213%
    37%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.39
    044%
    129%
    215%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.08
    043%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.15
    043%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.98
    043%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Augustus Kargbo

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    2.30
    047%
    131%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.96
    044%
    134%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.13
    046%
    132%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Angel Gomes

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.86
    051%
    128%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.42
    052%
    129%
    212%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.24
    053%
    128%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target49 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 0.71 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 0.5
    49%
    Model /90
    0.78
    051%
    133%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.54
    O 0.5
    40%
    Model /90
    0.71
    060%
    128%
    29%
    32%
    4+1%
  • Andri Lucas Guojohnsen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.54
    O 0.5
    39%
    Model /90
    0.78
    061%
    128%
    29%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.51
    O 0.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.07
    066%
    123%
    28%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mathias Jörgensen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.49
    O 0.5
    36%
    Model /90
    0.82
    064%
    125%
    28%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Hee-Chan Hwang

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    0.82
    069%
    123%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Jhon Adolfo Arias Andrade

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.40
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.74
    070%
    123%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Ryan Hedges

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.39
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    0.56
    069%
    124%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.38
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    0.48
    069%
    124%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Makhtar Gueye

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    40
    Proj.
    0.37
    O 0.5
    28%
    Model /90
    0.84
    072%
    121%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.35
    O 0.5
    28%
    Model /90
    0.50
    072%
    122%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Augustus Kargbo

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.75
    076%
    119%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.36
    076%
    120%
    23%
    3+1%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.27
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.28
    077%
    120%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.26
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.33
    077%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Angel Gomes

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.58
    079%
    118%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.43
    080%
    117%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.25
    080%
    118%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.37
    081%
    116%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Ladislav Krejčí

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.23
    081%
    117%
    22%
    3+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won49 playersHighest: Yerson Mosquera, 1.31 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Yerson Mosquera

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.31
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.46
    032%
    132%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.27
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.64
    034%
    131%
    219%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.26
    034%
    133%
    219%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.18
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.54
    037%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.17
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.29
    034%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.19
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryan Hedges

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.40
    042%
    132%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Andri Lucas Guojohnsen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.43
    043%
    131%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mateus Mané

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.38
    045%
    129%
    215%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.17
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.98
    050%
    126%
    212%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.00
    043%
    134%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.13
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.63
    048%
    129%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Yuri Oliveira Ribeiro

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.94
    048%
    132%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mathias Jörgensen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.33
    051%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Moussa Baradji

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.30
    052%
    128%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Lewis Miller

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.94
    050%
    131%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jhon Adolfo Arias Andrade

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    49
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.38
    054%
    127%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Sean McLoughlin

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.72
    051%
    133%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards49 playersHighest: José Pedro Malheiro de Sá, 0.19 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • José Pedro Malheiro de Sá

    GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.19
    083%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • André Trindade da Costa Neto

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.18
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.17
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.19
    086%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.16
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Yerson Mosquera

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Harry Pickering

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.22
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Sean McLoughlin

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.14
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Hayden Carter

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.15
    088%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.17
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Tote António Gomes

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Emmanuel Agbadou

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Marshall Nyasha Munetsi

    MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.15
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Tom Atcheson

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.14
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Adam Armstrong

    FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Ladislav Krejčí

    DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Ryan Alebiousu

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • George Pratt

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.13
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Dominic Hyam

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.12
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.15
    090%
    110%
    2+1%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves49 playersHighest: Balázs Tóth, 3.06 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Balázs Tóth

    GK · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    3.06
    O 2.5
    56%
    Model /90
    3.06
    06%
    116%
    221%
    320%
    415%
    510%
    6+11%
  • Aynsley Pears

    GK · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    2.85
    O 2.5
    52%
    Model /90
    2.90
    09%
    117%
    222%
    320%
    414%
    59%
    6+9%
  • Sam Johnstone

    GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.51
    O 2.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.51
    010%
    121%
    224%
    319%
    413%
    57%
    6+6%
  • José Pedro Malheiro de Sá

    GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.36
    O 2.5
    41%
    Model /90
    2.36
    011%
    123%
    224%
    319%
    412%
    56%
    6+5%
  • Dominic Hyam

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Sean McLoughlin

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Lewis Travis

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Sondre Tronstad

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ryan Alebiousu

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Hayden Carter

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • George Pratt

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Yuri Oliveira Ribeiro

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Tom Atcheson

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Lewis Miller

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Todd Cantwell

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ryoya Morishita

    MID · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Yuki Ohashi

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Scott Wharton

    DEF · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ryan Hedges

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Andri Lucas Guojohnsen

    FWD · Blackburn Rovers

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.