Championship · England
Wolverhampton WanderersvBlackburn Rovers
Referee
Farai Hallam
39 matches on record
Fouls per game
23.0
+2% vs league
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value — 2 published calls
- Sean McLoughlinover 0.50 Shots3.00 at PaddyPower · fair 2.46+21.8%
- Sean McLoughlinover 1.50 Fouls7.00 at Bet365 · fair 6.07+15.4%
Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls49 playersHighest: Yuki Ohashi, 1.25 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.25
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.64
033%132%220%310%44%51%6+1% - Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.16
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.28
033%135%220%38%43%51%6+0% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.15
036%135%219%37%42%51%6+0% - Andri Lucas Guojohnsenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.50
040%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Ryan Hedgesprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.45
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.23
041%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.03
041%135%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.20
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodareprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.97
049%127%213%36%43%51%6+1% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.07
042%134%216%36%42%5+0% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.15
042%134%216%36%42%5+0% - Makhtar Gueyeprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 2.07
050%127%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Harry Pickeringprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.39
046%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Mathias Jörgensenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.50
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Jhon Adolfo Arias Andradeprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.64
048%128%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Hee-Chan Hwangprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.67
050%128%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.34
050%129%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Augustus Kargboprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 2.07
050%131%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.12
050%130%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Hayden Carterprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.85
047%135%214%34%41%5+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles49 playersHighest: Lewis Travis, 2.05 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 2.05
- O 1.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 2.18
014%126%226%318%410%54%6+2% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 2.00
- O 1.5
- 59%
- Model /90
- 2.18
015%126%226%318%49%54%6+2% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.97
- O 1.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 2.29
017%126%225%317%49%54%6+2% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.64
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.71
029%126%219%313%47%54%6+2% - Santiago Ignacio Bueno Sciuttoprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.63
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.01
027%126%222%314%47%53%6+1% - Adam Forshawprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 1.63
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 3.25
031%126%217%312%47%54%6+3% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.58
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.03
025%129%223%313%46%52%6+1% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.56
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.94
025%130%223%313%46%52%6+1% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.89
024%132%224%313%45%52%6+1% - Lewis Millerprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.46
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.78
028%130%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Ryan Alebiousuprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.44
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.58
025%133%224%312%44%51%6+0% - Yerson Mosqueraprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.43
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.60
026%133%223%312%45%51%6+0% - Emmanuel Agbadouprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.53
025%134%224%312%44%51%6+0% - Dion De Neveprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 1.40
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 3.52
035%129%216%39%45%53%6+2% - Sean McLoughlinprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.39
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.41
025%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.94
032%129%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Tote António Gomesprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.37
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.53
027%133%223%311%44%51%6+0% - George Prattprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.37
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.52
026%135%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Jackson Tchatchouaprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 2.04
033%129%219%311%45%52%6+1% - Hayden Carterprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.45
026%135%223%310%44%51%6+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots49 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 2.00 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 2.00
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 2.20
017%127%224%316%49%54%6+3% - Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.53
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.00
028%129%220%312%46%53%6+2% - Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodareprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.44
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 3.03
039%126%214%39%45%53%6+4% - Andri Lucas Guojohnsenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.35
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.95
033%130%219%310%45%52%6+1% - Jhon Adolfo Arias Andradeprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 2.35
039%127%216%39%45%52%6+1% - Ryan Hedgesprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.74
035%131%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Mathias Jörgensenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.20
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.98
040%128%216%39%44%52%6+1% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.44
037%132%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Hee-Chan Hwangprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 2.21
043%128%215%38%44%52%6+1% - Makhtar Gueyeprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 2.42
046%127%213%37%44%52%6+1% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.39
044%129%215%37%43%51%6+0% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.08
043%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.15
043%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.98
043%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Augustus Kargboprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 2.30
047%131%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.96
044%134%215%35%41%50%6+0% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.13
046%132%215%35%42%51%6+0% - Angel Gomesprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.86
051%128%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Jean-Ricner Bellegardeprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.42
052%129%212%35%41%50%6+0% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.24
053%128%212%35%42%50%6+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target49 playersHighest: Adam Armstrong, 0.71 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 0.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 0.78
051%133%212%33%41%5+0% - Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 0.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 0.71
060%128%29%32%4+1% - Andri Lucas Guojohnsenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 0.78
061%128%29%32%40%5+0% - Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodareprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.51
- O 0.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.07
066%123%28%33%41%5+0% - Mathias Jörgensenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.49
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.82
064%125%28%32%40%5+0% - Hee-Chan Hwangprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.82
069%123%26%31%4+0% - Jhon Adolfo Arias Andradeprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.40
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.74
070%123%26%31%4+0% - Ryan Hedgesprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.39
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.56
069%124%26%31%4+0% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.38
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.48
069%124%25%31%4+0% - Makhtar Gueyeprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.84
072%121%25%31%4+0% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.50
072%122%25%31%4+0% - Augustus Kargboprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.75
076%119%24%31%4+0% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.36
076%120%23%3+1% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.27
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.28
077%120%23%3+0% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.26
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.33
077%119%23%3+0% - Angel Gomesprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.58
079%118%23%3+0% - Jean-Ricner Bellegardeprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.43
080%117%23%3+0% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.25
080%118%22%3+0% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.37
081%116%23%3+0% - Ladislav Krejčíprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.23
081%117%22%3+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won49 playersHighest: Yerson Mosquera, 1.31 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Yerson Mosqueraprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.31
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.46
032%132%220%310%44%52%6+1% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.64
034%131%219%310%44%52%6+1% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.26
034%133%219%39%43%51%6+0% - Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.18
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.54
037%131%218%39%43%51%6+1% - Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.29
034%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.19
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Ryan Hedgesprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.40
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Andri Lucas Guojohnsenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.43
043%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Mateus Manéprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.38
045%129%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.17
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodareprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.98
050%126%212%36%43%51%6+1% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.00
043%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.13
045%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Jean-Ricner Bellegardeprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.63
048%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Yuri Oliveira Ribeiroprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.94
048%132%214%35%41%5+0% - Mathias Jörgensenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.33
051%129%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Moussa Baradjiprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.30
052%128%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Lewis Millerprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.94
050%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Jhon Adolfo Arias Andradeprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.38
054%127%212%35%42%50%6+0% - Sean McLoughlinprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.72
051%133%212%33%41%5+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards49 playersHighest: José Pedro Malheiro de Sá, 0.19 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- José Pedro Malheiro de Sáprovisional
GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.19
083%115%22%3+0% - André Trindade da Costa Netoprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.18
086%113%2+1% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.19
086%112%2+1% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%113%2+1% - Yerson Mosqueraprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Harry Pickeringprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.22
087%112%2+1% - Sean McLoughlinprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.14
087%112%2+1% - Hayden Carterprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%112%2+1% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.17
088%111%2+1% - Tote António Gomesprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Emmanuel Agbadouprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%111%2+1% - Marshall Nyasha Munetsiprovisional
MID · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.15
089%110%2+1% - Tom Atchesonprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.14
089%110%2+1% - Adam Armstrongprovisional
FWD · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%111%2+1% - Ladislav Krejčíprovisional
DEF · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%110%2+1% - Ryan Alebiousuprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%110%2+1% - George Prattprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.13
089%110%2+1% - Dominic Hyamprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.12
089%110%2+1% - Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.15
090%110%2+1%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves49 playersHighest: Balázs Tóth, 3.06 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Balázs Tóthprovisional
GK · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.06
- O 2.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 3.06
06%116%221%320%415%510%6+11% - Aynsley Pearsprovisional
GK · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 2.85
- O 2.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 2.90
09%117%222%320%414%59%6+9% - Sam Johnstoneprovisional
GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.51
- O 2.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.51
010%121%224%319%413%57%6+6% - José Pedro Malheiro de Sáprovisional
GK · Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.36
- O 2.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 2.36
011%123%224%319%412%56%6+5% - Dominic Hyamprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sean McLoughlinprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lewis Travisprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sondre Tronstadprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ryan Alebiousuprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Hayden Carterprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - George Prattprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Yuri Oliveira Ribeiroprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Tom Atchesonprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lewis Millerprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Todd Cantwellprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ryoya Morishitaprovisional
MID · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Yuki Ohashiprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Scott Whartonprovisional
DEF · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ryan Hedgesprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Andri Lucas Guojohnsenprovisional
FWD · Blackburn Rovers
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection.