La Liga · Spain

SevillavRayo Vallecano

Saturday 15 August at 20:30Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuánexpected lineup

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value — 0 live calls · 4 withdrawn

Isaac Romero Bernalover 1.50 Tackles7.50 at Bet365 · fair 4.55+65.0%withdrawn
Isaac Romero Bernalover 0.50 Tackles2.38 at Bet365 · fair 1.82+30.4%withdrawn
Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoover 1.50 Shots8.00 at Bet365 · fair 6.51+22.9%withdrawn
Óscar Valentín Martín Luengoover 0.50 Shots2.38 at Bet365 · fair 2.09+13.6%withdrawn

A withdrawn call is one Per90 no longer stands behind — the rule that published it was later found wrong. It stays here, keeps its price, and is still scored against its closing line; hover it for the reason. Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260813-1451 · Tackles v20260813-1451 · Shots v20260813-1451 · Fouls won v20260813-1451 · Cards v20260813-1451 · Saves v20260813-1451

Model projections

Fouls17 playersHighest: Óscar Valentín Martín Luengo, 1.63 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Óscar Valentín Martín LuengoMID	Rayo Vallecano	2.00	73expected	1.63	48%	49	022% 131% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Lucien AgoumeMID	Sevilla	1.80	79expected	1.57	46%	57	024% 130% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Alexandre ZurawskiFWD	Rayo Vallecano	1.79	70expected	1.39	40%	15	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Isaac Palazón CamachoFWD	Rayo Vallecano	1.60	75expected	1.33	38%	53	028% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Florian LejeuneDEF	Rayo Vallecano	1.32	84expected	1.23	35%	73	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Isaac Romero BernalFWD	Sevilla	1.47	71expected	1.17	33%	47	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Iván Balliu CampenyDEF	Rayo Vallecano	1.40	75expected	1.17	33%	20	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Unai López CabreraMID	Rayo Vallecano	1.53	67expected	1.13	31%	43	034% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jorge De Frutos SebastiánFWD	Rayo Vallecano	1.41	72expected	1.13	31%	68	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gabriel Alonso Suazo UrbinaDEF	Sevilla	1.28	76expected	1.08	30%	25	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 17 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 17 →

Tackles17 playersHighest: Gabriel Alonso Suazo Urbina, 2.64 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Gabriel Alonso Suazo UrbinaDEF	Sevilla	3.13	76expected	2.64	68%	25	012% 120% 221% 318% 413% 58% 6+9%
Óscar Valentín Martín LuengoMID	Rayo Vallecano	2.72	73expected	2.22	60%	49	016% 124% 223% 317% 410% 56% 6+5%
Lucien AgoumeMID	Sevilla	2.41	79expected	2.10	58%	57	018% 124% 223% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Andrei Florin RatiuDEF	Rayo Vallecano	2.20	83expected	2.04	56%	66	018% 125% 223% 316% 49% 55% 6+4%
Enrique Jesús Salas ValienteDEF	Sevilla	1.97	82expected	1.80	51%	50	022% 127% 223% 315% 48% 54% 6+2%
Joaquín Martínez GaunaDEF	Sevilla	1.82	82expected	1.66	47%	18	023% 130% 223% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Iván Balliu CampenyDEF	Rayo Vallecano	1.95	75expected	1.62	46%	20	025% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Florian LejeuneDEF	Rayo Vallecano	1.57	84expected	1.47	42%	73	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Unai López CabreraMID	Rayo Vallecano	1.67	67expected	1.24	34%	43	033% 133% 220% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jorge De Frutos SebastiánFWD	Rayo Vallecano	1.30	72expected	1.04	28%	68	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 17 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 17 →

Shots17 playersHighest: Isaac Romero Bernal, 1.99 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Isaac Romero BernalFWD	Sevilla	2.51	71expected	1.99	57%	47	017% 126% 224% 317% 49% 54% 6+3%
Ruben VargasFWD	Sevilla	2.38	70expected	1.84	53%	30	019% 128% 224% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Álvaro García RiveraFWD	Rayo Vallecano	1.86	78expected	1.60	46%	57	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Isaac Palazón CamachoFWD	Rayo Vallecano	1.81	75expected	1.50	43%	53	025% 131% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jorge De Frutos SebastiánFWD	Rayo Vallecano	1.70	72expected	1.37	39%	68	028% 133% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Alexandre ZurawskiFWD	Rayo Vallecano	1.71	70expected	1.33	38%	15	029% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Florian LejeuneDEF	Rayo Vallecano	1.08	84expected	1.01	27%	73	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Joaquín Martínez GaunaDEF	Sevilla	0.84	82expected	0.77	18%	18	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Unai López CabreraMID	Rayo Vallecano	1.00	67expected	0.74	17%	43	049% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Enrique Jesús Salas ValienteDEF	Sevilla	0.81	82expected	0.74	18%	50	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%

10 of 17 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 17 →

Fouls won17 playersHighest: Isaac Palazón Camacho, 1.86 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Isaac Palazón CamachoFWD	Rayo Vallecano	2.24	75expected	1.86	53%	53	019% 128% 224% 316% 48% 54% 6+2%
Alexandre ZurawskiFWD	Rayo Vallecano	2.09	70expected	1.63	47%	15	023% 130% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Isaac Romero BernalFWD	Sevilla	1.58	71expected	1.25	35%	47	031% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jorge De Frutos SebastiánFWD	Rayo Vallecano	1.44	72expected	1.15	32%	68	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Joaquín Martínez GaunaDEF	Sevilla	1.13	82expected	1.02	27%	18	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Óscar Valentín Martín LuengoMID	Rayo Vallecano	1.22	73expected	0.99	26%	49	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Ruben VargasFWD	Sevilla	1.21	70expected	0.94	24%	30	041% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Iván Balliu CampenyDEF	Rayo Vallecano	1.06	75expected	0.88	22%	20	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Unai López CabreraMID	Rayo Vallecano	0.94	67expected	0.70	16%	43	051% 133% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Enrique Jesús Salas ValienteDEF	Sevilla	0.73	82expected	0.67	15%	50	053% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%

10 of 17 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 17 →

Cards17 playersHighest: Lucien Agoume, 0.25 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow, second yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card". The trends column counts the same thing.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Lucien AgoumeMID	Sevilla	0.29	79expected	0.25	22%	57	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Isaac Palazón CamachoFWD	Rayo Vallecano	0.28	75expected	0.23	20%	53	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Isaac Romero BernalFWD	Sevilla	0.27	71expected	0.21	19%	47	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Unai López CabreraMID	Rayo Vallecano	0.28	67expected	0.20	18%	43	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Florian LejeuneDEF	Rayo Vallecano	0.22	84expected	0.20	18%	73	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Iván Balliu CampenyDEF	Rayo Vallecano	0.23	75expected	0.20	18%	20	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Óscar Valentín Martín LuengoMID	Rayo Vallecano	0.23	73expected	0.19	17%	49	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Gabriel Alonso Suazo UrbinaDEF	Sevilla	0.21	76expected	0.18	16%	25	084% 115% 2+1%
Alexandre ZurawskiFWD	Rayo Vallecano	0.22	70expected	0.17	16%	15	084% 114% 2+1%
Enrique Jesús Salas ValienteDEF	Sevilla	0.16	82expected	0.14	13%	50	087% 112% 2+1%

10 of 17 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 17 →

Saves2 playersHighest: Augusto Martín Batalla Barga, 2.97 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Augusto Martín Batalla BargaGK	Rayo Vallecano	3.17	84expected	2.97	54%	66	09% 116% 220% 319% 415% 510% 6+11%
Odisseas VlachodimosGK	Sevilla	2.60	84expected	2.44	43%	33	013% 121% 222% 318% 412% 57% 6+6%

1 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.