La Liga · Spain

EspanyolvReal Madrid

Saturday 22 August at 20:30RCDE Stadiumexpected lineup

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formAurélien Tchouaméni over 0.5 fouls: 8/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 14/20 · 5/5 away · strip 2 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 · market 80% · best 1.33 (BetVictor) · bet365 1.17
opponentEspanyol concede 5.3 shots on target a game — 3rd most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. Good news for Real Madrid's shooters.
opponentEspanyol concede 14.9 shots a game — 3rd most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. Good news for Real Madrid's shooters.

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 5 live calls

Kylian Mbappéover 5.50 Shots3.00 at bet365 · fair 2.62+14.5%
Federico Valverdeover 2.50 Shots3.00 at bet365 · fair 2.70+11.1%
Tyrhys Dolanover 2.50 Shots3.75 at bet365 · fair 3.40+10.3%
Jude Bellinghamover 1.50 Tackles1.53 at bet365 · fair 1.40+9.5%
Pol Lozanoover 1.50 Tackles1.53 at bet365 · fair 1.40+9.5%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls49 playersHighest: José Gragera, 1.63 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
José GrageraMID	Espanyol	2.10	64provisional	1.63	48%	10	022% 130% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Pol LozanoMID	Espanyol	2.28	57provisional	1.61	46%	64	025% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+1%
Clemens RiedelDEF	Espanyol	1.57	75provisional	1.36	39%	21	028% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Carlos EspíFWD	—	1.71	65provisional	1.32	37%	25	031% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Urko González de ZárateMID	Espanyol	1.43	79provisional	1.29	37%	55	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Roberto FernándezFWD	Espanyol	1.51	73provisional	1.29	37%	58	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Thiago PitarchMID	Real Madrid	1.56	67provisional	1.25	35%	10	030% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marc CucurellaDEF	—	1.33	83provisional	1.24	35%	70	030% 135% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Unai NúñezDEF	Espanyol	1.40	75provisional	1.22	34%	41	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Omar El HilaliDEF	Espanyol	1.44	70provisional	1.18	33%	73	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Denzel DumfriesDEF	—	1.56	61provisional	1.16	32%	49	035% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	1.29	78provisional	1.16	32%	59	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	1.72	53provisional	1.14	31%	48	036% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Vinicius JuniorFWD	Real Madrid	1.21	79provisional	1.10	30%	66	034% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kike GarcíaFWD	Espanyol	1.55	56provisional	1.08	29%	72	038% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Leandro CabreraDEF	Espanyol	1.08	88provisional	1.06	29%	70	035% 136% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Aurélien TchouaméniMID	Real Madrid	1.10	83provisional	1.04	28%	65	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 5+1%
Antoniu RocaFWD	Espanyol	1.95	38provisional	1.02	27%	39	041% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tyrhys DolanFWD	Espanyol	1.32	63provisional	1.01	27%	81	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Éder MilitãoDEF	Real Madrid	1.13	76provisional	1.00	26%	28	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Álvaro CarrerasDEF	Real Madrid	1.03	85provisional	0.98	26%	28	038% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Bernardo SilvaMID	—	1.05	81provisional	0.97	25%	71	039% 136% 218% 36% 42% 5+0%
Edu ExpósitoMID	Espanyol	1.12	70provisional	0.93	24%	56	041% 135% 217% 36% 41% 5+0%
Ibrahima KonatéDEF	—	0.93	84provisional	0.88	22%	67	042% 136% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Quilindschy HartmanDEF	—	0.89	85provisional	0.85	21%	21	043% 136% 215% 34% 41% 5+0%
Charles PickelMID	Espanyol	1.94	27provisional	0.81	19%	24	046% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Dean HuijsenDEF	Real Madrid	1.03	65provisional	0.79	19%	60	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Raúl AsencioDEF	Real Madrid	0.87	77provisional	0.77	18%	46	047% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Javi PuadoFWD	Espanyol	1.13	55provisional	0.76	19%	45	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Yan DiomandeFWD	—	0.87	74provisional	0.75	18%	43	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Jofre CarrerasFWD	Espanyol	1.18	48provisional	0.73	17%	64	050% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kylian MbappéFWD	Real Madrid	0.75	85provisional	0.72	17%	65	049% 135% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Antonio RüdigerDEF	Real Madrid	0.77	82provisional	0.72	16%	47	049% 134% 213% 33% 41% 5+0%
Rubén SánchezDEF	Espanyol	1.29	42provisional	0.72	17%	21	052% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Brahim DíazFWD	Real Madrid	1.19	44provisional	0.69	16%	61	052% 131% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Federico ValverdeMID	Real Madrid	0.72	84provisional	0.69	15%	69	051% 134% 212% 33% 4+1%
EndrickFWD	Real Madrid	1.58	29provisional	0.66	15%	23	056% 129% 210% 34% 41% 5+0%
Pere MillaFWD	Espanyol	1.24	36provisional	0.62	14%	54	056% 131% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Daniel CarvajalDEF	Real Madrid	0.73	70provisional	0.60	13%	25	056% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
Arda GülerMID	Real Madrid	0.89	51provisional	0.58	12%	61	058% 130% 210% 32% 4+1%
Ferland MendyDEF	Real Madrid	0.69	70provisional	0.57	12%	19	057% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Trent Alexander-ArnoldDEF	Real Madrid	0.75	59provisional	0.54	11%	54	060% 129% 29% 32% 4+0%
Dani CeballosMID	Real Madrid	1.10	34provisional	0.52	11%	39	062% 128% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
RodrygoFWD	Real Madrid	0.79	41provisional	0.44	8%	49	066% 126% 26% 31% 4+0%
David AlabaDEF	Real Madrid	0.56	55provisional	0.39	6%	18	069% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%
Miguel RubioDEF	Espanyol	0.89	17provisional	0.26	3%	12	077% 119% 23% 3+0%
Thibaut CourtoisGK	Real Madrid	0.06	89provisional	0.06	0%	62	094% 16% 2+0%
Marko DmitrovicGK	Espanyol	0.02	89provisional	0.02	—	70	098% 1+2%
Andriy LuninGK	Real Madrid	0.01	84provisional	0.01	—	14	099% 1+1%

All 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Shots49 playersHighest: Kylian Mbappé, 3.93 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Kylian MbappéFWD	Real Madrid	4.12	85provisional	3.93	87%	65	03% 19% 215% 318% 417% 514% 6+22%
Vinicius JuniorFWD	Real Madrid	2.75	79provisional	2.48	68%	66	011% 121% 223% 319% 412% 57% 6+6%
Carlos EspíFWD	—	3.16	65provisional	2.37	62%	25	016% 122% 221% 316% 411% 57% 6+7%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.05	78provisional	1.81	52%	59	019% 128% 224% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Kike GarcíaFWD	Espanyol	2.52	56provisional	1.69	46%	72	025% 128% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Roberto FernándezFWD	Espanyol	1.89	73provisional	1.59	46%	58	023% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Federico ValverdeMID	Real Madrid	1.55	84provisional	1.47	43%	69	025% 133% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Yan DiomandeFWD	—	1.69	74provisional	1.44	41%	43	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
RodrygoFWD	Real Madrid	2.61	41provisional	1.35	36%	49	033% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
EndrickFWD	Real Madrid	3.44	29provisional	1.32	33%	23	038% 129% 215% 38% 45% 53% 6+3%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Shots on target49 playersHighest: Kylian Mbappé, 1.86 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Kylian MbappéFWD	Real Madrid	1.95	85provisional	1.86	83%	65	017% 128% 225% 316% 48% 53% 6+2%
Vinicius JuniorFWD	Real Madrid	1.10	79provisional	0.99	61%	66	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Carlos EspíFWD	—	1.29	65provisional	0.97	58%	25	042% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	0.87	78provisional	0.77	52%	59	048% 134% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kike GarcíaFWD	Espanyol	1.09	56provisional	0.73	49%	72	051% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Roberto FernándezFWD	Espanyol	0.78	73provisional	0.66	47%	58	053% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Federico ValverdeMID	Real Madrid	0.58	84provisional	0.55	42%	69	058% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Yan DiomandeFWD	—	0.60	74provisional	0.52	39%	43	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
RodrygoFWD	Real Madrid	0.98	41provisional	0.50	37%	49	063% 127% 28% 32% 4+1%
EndrickFWD	Real Madrid	1.31	29provisional	0.50	35%	23	065% 125% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Fouls won49 playersHighest: Vinicius Junior, 2.17 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Vinicius JuniorFWD	Real Madrid	2.42	79provisional	2.17	61%	66	014% 124% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Jude BellinghamMID	Real Madrid	2.44	78provisional	2.15	61%	59	015% 125% 224% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Brahim DíazFWD	Real Madrid	2.49	44provisional	1.35	37%	61	033% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Yan DiomandeFWD	—	1.45	74provisional	1.23	35%	43	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kylian MbappéFWD	Real Madrid	1.29	85provisional	1.22	34%	65	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
RodrygoFWD	Real Madrid	2.41	41provisional	1.22	32%	49	036% 132% 217% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Eduardo CamavingaMID	Real Madrid	1.83	53provisional	1.15	31%	48	038% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Kike GarcíaFWD	Espanyol	1.73	56provisional	1.14	31%	72	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jofre CarrerasFWD	Espanyol	1.96	48provisional	1.14	31%	64	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Roberto FernándezFWD	Espanyol	1.34	73provisional	1.12	31%	58	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Saves3 playersHighest: Marko Dmitrovic, 3.36 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Marko DmitrovicGK	Espanyol	3.38	89provisional	3.36	62%	70	05% 113% 219% 320% 416% 511% 6+15%
Thibaut CourtoisGK	Real Madrid	2.63	89provisional	2.61	47%	62	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%
Andriy LuninGK	Real Madrid	2.53	84provisional	2.40	42%	14	011% 122% 224% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.