La Liga · Spain

OsasunavLevante

Monday 24 August at 18:30Estadio El Sadarlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

formValentin Rosier over 0.5 shots: 8/10 of his last 10, 3 in a row
Last 20: 11/20 · 5/6 at home · strip 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 1 3 2 · market 62% · best 1.73 (Ladbrokes) · bet365 1.67
opponentLevante concede 13.2 tackles a game — 22nd most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. A hard place to get tackles.
formLucas Torró over 1.5 fouls: 5/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 7/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 2 2 2 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 · market 65% · best 1.71 (VirginBet) · bet365 1.33

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 9 live calls

Iván Romeroover 1.50 Tackles2.50 at bet365 · fair 1.80+38.9%
Iván Romeroover 1.50 Fouls2.10 at bet365 · fair 1.85+13.5%
Rubén Garcíaover 0.50 Fouls1.36 at bet365 · fair 1.21+13.2%
Lucas Torróover 1.50 Tackles1.80 at bet365 · fair 1.61+11.8%
Valentin Rosierover 1.50 Shots4.00 at bet365 · fair 3.60+11.1%
Iván Romeroover 2.50 Shots3.00 at bet365 · fair 2.70+11.1%
Jon Moncayolaover 2.50 Tackles2.75 at bet365 · fair 2.50+10.0%
Aimar Orozover 0.50 Fouls1.36 at bet365 · fair 1.25+9.1%
Jon Ander Olasagastiover 0.50 Shots1.44 at bet365 · fair 1.36+6.2%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls39 playersHighest: Lucas Torró, 1.47 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lucas TorróMID	Osasuna	1.63	78provisional	1.47	43%	69	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+0%
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	1.40	80provisional	1.29	37%	75	029% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Iván RomeroFWD	Levante	1.38	74provisional	1.19	33%	33	032% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jon MoncayolaMID	Osasuna	1.27	77provisional	1.14	32%	68	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Hugo SoteloMID	—	1.43	67provisional	1.14	32%	44	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alejandro CatenaDEF	Osasuna	1.16	87provisional	1.13	31%	70	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Manu SánchezDEF	Levante	1.20	84provisional	1.13	31%	67	033% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Valentin RosierDEF	Osasuna	1.18	83provisional	1.11	31%	63	034% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jorge HerrandoDEF	Osasuna	1.32	72provisional	1.11	30%	46	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Aimar OrozMID	Osasuna	1.23	77provisional	1.10	30%	68	034% 136% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Shots39 playersHighest: Ante Budimir, 3.30 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	3.62	80provisional	3.30	81%	75	06% 114% 219% 320% 416% 511% 6+14%
Sheraldo BeckerFWD	Osasuna	2.93	58provisional	2.03	55%	45	019% 125% 222% 315% 49% 55% 6+4%
Raúl GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	4.07	34provisional	1.80	45%	68	027% 128% 218% 311% 47% 54% 6+5%
Iván RomeroFWD	Levante	1.98	74provisional	1.68	49%	33	021% 130% 224% 314% 47% 53% 6+1%
Aimar OrozMID	Osasuna	1.62	77provisional	1.43	41%	68	026% 133% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Raúl MoroFWD	Osasuna	1.78	58provisional	1.23	34%	47	034% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Lucas TorróMID	Osasuna	1.38	78provisional	1.22	34%	69	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Paco CortésFWD	Levante	1.75	54provisional	1.14	31%	13	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Goduine KoyalipouFWD	Levante	2.58	33provisional	1.12	29%	11	040% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Rubén GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	1.56	60provisional	1.11	30%	71	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Shots on target39 playersHighest: Ante Budimir, 1.29 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	1.41	80provisional	1.29	70%	75	030% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Raúl GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	1.97	34provisional	0.87	51%	68	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sheraldo BeckerFWD	Osasuna	1.00	58provisional	0.69	47%	45	053% 131% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Iván RomeroFWD	Levante	0.68	74provisional	0.58	43%	33	057% 131% 29% 32% 4+0%
Goduine KoyalipouFWD	Levante	1.10	33provisional	0.48	35%	11	065% 126% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Karl Etta EyongFWD	Levante	1.03	34provisional	0.45	33%	38	067% 124% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Aimar OrozMID	Osasuna	0.47	77provisional	0.42	34%	68	066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Paco CortésFWD	Levante	0.63	54provisional	0.41	32%	13	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Raúl MoroFWD	Osasuna	0.57	58provisional	0.39	31%	47	069% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Rubén GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	0.55	60provisional	0.39	31%	71	069% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%

10 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 39 →

Fouls won39 playersHighest: Iván Romero, 2.25 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Iván RomeroFWD	Levante	2.68	74provisional	2.25	63%	33	013% 123% 224% 318% 411% 56% 6+4%
Aimar OrozMID	Osasuna	2.41	77provisional	2.11	60%	68	014% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Carlos ÁlvarezMID	Levante	2.33	68provisional	1.83	53%	31	020% 128% 224% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Kareem TundeFWD	Levante	1.83	51provisional	1.11	30%	22	038% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Diego RicoDEF	—	1.76	52provisional	1.09	29%	61	041% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Jon Ander OlasagastiMID	Levante	1.56	60provisional	1.09	30%	57	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Iker MuñozMID	Osasuna	1.97	41provisional	1.01	26%	42	042% 132% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ante BudimirFWD	Osasuna	1.11	80provisional	1.01	27%	75	038% 135% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Adrián DelaDEF	Levante	1.03	84provisional	0.97	25%	34	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Kervin ArriagaMID	Levante	1.26	66provisional	0.96	25%	27	042% 133% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lucas TorróMID	Osasuna	1.04	78provisional	0.92	24%	69	041% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Víctor GarcíaFWD	Levante	1.18	60provisional	0.83	21%	22	046% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Paco CortésFWD	Levante	1.28	54provisional	0.82	21%	13	047% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Thiago FernándezFWD	—	1.26	50provisional	0.77	18%	16	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Hugo SoteloMID	—	0.99	67provisional	0.76	19%	44	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Rubén GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	1.09	60provisional	0.76	18%	71	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Oriol ReyMID	Levante	1.09	60provisional	0.76	19%	21	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Karl Etta EyongFWD	Levante	1.74	34provisional	0.74	18%	38	054% 128% 211% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Abel BretonesDEF	Osasuna	1.13	56provisional	0.74	18%	63	052% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Manu SánchezDEF	Levante	0.76	84provisional	0.71	16%	67	050% 134% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Valentin RosierDEF	Osasuna	0.75	83provisional	0.70	16%	63	051% 134% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Sheraldo BeckerFWD	Osasuna	0.99	58provisional	0.67	16%	45	053% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Pablo MartínezMID	Levante	0.79	73provisional	0.66	15%	27	053% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Raúl MoroFWD	Osasuna	0.87	58provisional	0.59	13%	47	057% 130% 210% 32% 41% 5+0%
Raúl GarcíaFWD	Osasuna	1.38	34provisional	0.59	13%	68	060% 127% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Moi GómezMID	Osasuna	1.35	31provisional	0.53	11%	52	062% 127% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Jeremy ToljanDEF	Levante	0.65	71provisional	0.52	10%	38	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Kike BarjaFWD	Osasuna	2.04	18provisional	0.51	10%	42	062% 128% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Roger BruguéFWD	Levante	0.93	41provisional	0.48	9%	19	064% 127% 27% 32% 4+0%
Unai ElgezabalDEF	Levante	0.61	67provisional	0.48	9%	12	063% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Jon MoncayolaMID	Osasuna	0.50	77provisional	0.44	7%	68	065% 128% 26% 31% 4+0%
Alejandro CatenaDEF	Osasuna	0.44	87provisional	0.43	7%	70	066% 127% 26% 31% 4+0%
Goduine KoyalipouFWD	Levante	0.97	33provisional	0.41	8%	11	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Jorge HerrandoDEF	Osasuna	0.47	72provisional	0.38	6%	46	069% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%
José Luis MoralesFWD	Levante	1.39	18provisional	0.36	6%	20	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Enzo BoyomoDEF	Osasuna	0.26	86provisional	0.26	3%	67	078% 120% 23% 3+0%
Asier OsambelaMID	Osasuna	0.60	22provisional	0.18	2%	18	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Sergio HerreraGK	Osasuna	0.14	89provisional	0.14	1%	74	087% 112% 2+1%
Mathew RyanGK	Levante	0.09	89provisional	0.09	0%	37	091% 18% 2+0%

All 39 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves2 playersHighest: Mathew Ryan, 3.43 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Mathew RyanGK	Levante	3.47	89provisional	3.43	63%	37	05% 113% 219% 320% 416% 512% 6+15%
Sergio HerreraGK	Osasuna	2.57	89provisional	2.54	45%	74	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.