La Liga · Spain

ValenciavCelta de Vigo

Saturday 22 August at 18:30Estadio de Mestallaexpected lineup

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Angles

every priced line builder

opponentValencia concede 19.4 tackles a game — 2nd most of 23 in La Liga
Over their last 10. Good news for Celta de Vigo's tacklers.
formDimitri Foulquier over 0.5 fouls: 6/10 of his last 10, 6 in a row
Last 20: 11/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 2 1 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 · market 75% · best 1.40 (10Bet) · bet365 1.36
formHugo Duro over 0.5 fouls: 5/10 of his last 10, 5 in a row
Last 20: 11/20 · 3/5 at home · strip 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 · market 78% · best 1.30 (Bet365) · bet365 1.30

Facts with sample sizes, not predictions. The market % beside a line is the books’ median price with margin in, and the over market runs hot.

Value — 4 live calls

Ilaix Moribaover 2.50 Fouls4.33 at bet365 · fair 3.50+23.8%
César Tárregaover 1.50 Tackles2.50 at bet365 · fair 2.05+22.0%
Hugo Duroover 0.50 Tackles2.38 at bet365 · fair 1.95+21.8%
Marcos Alonsoover 2.50 Tackles4.00 at bet365 · fair 3.50+14.3%

Published at the price shown and scored against the closing line whatever happens next — the same rows, with staking context, are on the value board and in the track record.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls49 playersHighest: Carles Pérez, 1.46 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Carles PérezFWD	—	2.62	41provisional	1.46	41%	27	027% 132% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Yoel LagoDEF	Celta de Vigo	1.47	80provisional	1.34	39%	20	028% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
César TárregaDEF	Valencia	1.30	86provisional	1.25	35%	66	029% 135% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ilaix MoribaMID	Celta de Vigo	1.44	73provisional	1.23	35%	69	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Borja IglesiasFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.61	62provisional	1.21	34%	72	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Javi GalánDEF	—	1.55	64provisional	1.18	33%	50	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	1.47	63provisional	1.13	31%	60	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	2.23	35provisional	1.10	29%	48	037% 134% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Williot SwedbergFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.58	52provisional	1.06	29%	61	037% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Javi RodríguezDEF	Celta de Vigo	1.19	78provisional	1.06	29%	69	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Shots49 playersHighest: Lucas Beltrán, 1.47 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	1.98	63provisional	1.47	42%	60	027% 131% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	1.80	68provisional	1.43	41%	67	027% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Borja IglesiasFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.66	62provisional	1.21	34%	72	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luis RiojaFWD	Valencia	1.36	77provisional	1.19	33%	74	032% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Diego LópezFWD	Valencia	1.47	68provisional	1.17	32%	72	034% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Javi GuerraMID	Valencia	1.42	70provisional	1.15	32%	72	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Dani RabaFWD	Valencia	2.38	38provisional	1.13	30%	42	040% 130% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ferran JutglàFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.72	52provisional	1.09	30%	30	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	2.37	35provisional	1.08	28%	48	039% 132% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Iago AspasFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.79	47provisional	1.04	28%	62	041% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Shots on target49 playersHighest: Borja Iglesias, 0.65 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Borja IglesiasFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.88	62provisional	0.65	46%	72	054% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	0.70	68provisional	0.55	41%	67	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Ferran JutglàFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.84	52provisional	0.53	39%	30	061% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	0.68	63provisional	0.50	38%	60	062% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Iago AspasFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.79	47provisional	0.46	35%	62	065% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	0.93	35provisional	0.42	33%	48	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Williot SwedbergFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.61	52provisional	0.39	32%	61	068% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%
Arnaut DanjumaFWD	Valencia	0.74	42provisional	0.39	31%	58	069% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Diego LópezFWD	Valencia	0.49	68provisional	0.39	32%	72	068% 125% 25% 31% 4+0%
Luis RiojaFWD	Valencia	0.41	77provisional	0.36	30%	74	070% 124% 25% 3+1%

10 of 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 49 →

Fouls won49 playersHighest: Aleix Febas, 2.58 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Aleix FebasMID	—	2.66	87provisional	2.58	71%	36	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
Lucas BeltránFWD	Valencia	2.27	63provisional	1.67	48%	60	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Ilaix MoribaMID	Celta de Vigo	1.89	73provisional	1.58	45%	69	024% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Hugo DuroFWD	Valencia	1.75	68provisional	1.38	39%	67	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Guido RodríguezMID	Valencia	1.64	67provisional	1.26	36%	45	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Williot SwedbergFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.93	52provisional	1.21	34%	61	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Javi GalánDEF	—	1.62	64provisional	1.20	33%	50	034% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Borja IglesiasFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.47	62provisional	1.06	29%	72	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Diego LópezFWD	Valencia	1.35	68provisional	1.06	29%	72	037% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ferran JutglàFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.57	52provisional	0.98	26%	30	042% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Yoel LagoDEF	Celta de Vigo	1.07	80provisional	0.97	25%	20	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Luis RiojaFWD	Valencia	1.04	77provisional	0.90	23%	74	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Álvaro NúñezDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.99	80provisional	0.90	23%	25	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Javi RuedaDEF	Celta de Vigo	1.23	62provisional	0.89	23%	26	044% 134% 216% 35% 42% 5+0%
Dani RabaFWD	Valencia	1.89	38provisional	0.88	22%	42	048% 129% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sergio CarreiraDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.97	80provisional	0.87	22%	57	043% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
André AlmeidaMID	Valencia	1.75	40provisional	0.87	22%	56	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Iago AspasFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.49	47provisional	0.85	22%	62	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Javi RodríguezDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.97	78provisional	0.85	21%	69	044% 134% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Javi GuerraMID	Valencia	0.98	70provisional	0.79	19%	72	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Dimitri FoulquierDEF	Valencia	0.86	78provisional	0.75	18%	47	049% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Umar SadiqFWD	Valencia	1.64	35provisional	0.72	17%	48	052% 131% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
José GayàDEF	Valencia	0.80	79provisional	0.71	16%	55	050% 134% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Miguel RománMID	Celta de Vigo	0.82	75provisional	0.69	16%	19	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Marcos AlonsoDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.67	86provisional	0.64	14%	63	053% 133% 211% 33% 4+1%
Filip UgrinicMID	Valencia	0.84	64provisional	0.62	14%	27	055% 131% 210% 33% 4+1%
Arnaut DanjumaFWD	Valencia	1.16	42provisional	0.59	13%	58	058% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Jesús VázquezDEF	Valencia	0.85	58provisional	0.58	13%	43	058% 129% 210% 32% 41% 5+0%
Carles PérezFWD	—	1.14	41provisional	0.58	12%	27	059% 129% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Hugo ÁlvarezFWD	Celta de Vigo	1.11	41provisional	0.57	12%	54	059% 129% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
José CopeteDEF	Valencia	0.64	77provisional	0.56	12%	46	058% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
César TárregaDEF	Valencia	0.55	86provisional	0.53	10%	66	059% 130% 28% 32% 4+0%
Damián RodríguezMID	Celta de Vigo	0.69	65provisional	0.52	10%	19	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Carl StarfeltDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.53	81provisional	0.49	9%	47	062% 129% 27% 31% 4+0%
PepeluMID	Valencia	0.72	57provisional	0.48	9%	65	064% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Mouctar DiakhabyDEF	Valencia	0.61	66provisional	0.46	9%	21	064% 127% 27% 31% 4+0%
Baptiste SantamariaMID	Valencia	1.16	30provisional	0.44	9%	19	068% 124% 26% 32% 40% 5+0%
Pablo DuránFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.92	38provisional	0.43	8%	57	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Fran BeltránMID	Celta de Vigo	0.72	48provisional	0.41	7%	61	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Sergi CanósFWD	Valencia	1.38	22provisional	0.41	7%	17	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Carlos DomínguezDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.43	72provisional	0.36	5%	27	071% 124% 25% 3+1%
Mihailo RisticDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.58	47provisional	0.33	5%	15	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Manu FernándezDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.60	41provisional	0.30	5%	14	075% 120% 24% 3+1%
Altay BayındırGK	—	0.30	86provisional	0.29	4%	10	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Joseph AidooDEF	Celta de Vigo	0.30	74provisional	0.25	3%	17	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Jones El-AbdellaouiFWD	Celta de Vigo	0.67	26provisional	0.24	3%	22	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Matías VecinoMID	Celta de Vigo	0.51	33provisional	0.22	2%	39	081% 116% 22% 3+0%
Stole DimitrievskiGK	Valencia	0.20	88provisional	0.19	2%	24	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Ionuț RaduGK	Celta de Vigo	0.18	89provisional	0.17	1%	53	084% 115% 2+1%

All 49 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves3 playersHighest: Ionuț Radu, 2.92 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Ionuț RaduGK	Celta de Vigo	2.94	89provisional	2.92	54%	53	07% 117% 222% 320% 415% 59% 6+10%
Stole DimitrievskiGK	Valencia	2.59	88provisional	2.55	46%	24	010% 121% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+6%
Altay BayındırGK	—	2.47	86provisional	2.38	42%	10	011% 123% 225% 319% 412% 56% 6+5%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.