La Liga · Spain

VillarrealvDeportivo A Coruña

Saturday 5 September at 20:00Estadio de la Cerámicalineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

23.2

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260816-1555 · Shots v20260816-1555 · Shots on target v20260816-1555 · Fouls won v20260816-1555 · Saves v20260816-1229

Model projections

Fouls29 playersHighest: Santiago Mouriño, 1.49 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Santiago MouriñoDEF	Villarreal	1.61	82provisional	1.49	44%	54	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Santi ComesañaMID	Villarreal	1.38	76provisional	1.21	34%	70	031% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Pape GueyeMID	Villarreal	1.23	73provisional	1.05	28%	65	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Adrià AltimiraDEF	Deportivo A Coruña	1.37	63provisional	1.05	28%	24	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Carlos RomeroDEF	Villarreal	1.09	83provisional	1.03	28%	71	036% 136% 219% 37% 42% 5+0%
Pau NavarroDEF	Villarreal	1.19	74provisional	1.03	28%	40	037% 136% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alberto MoleiroFWD	Villarreal	1.05	75provisional	0.92	24%	73	041% 136% 217% 35% 41% 5+0%
Ayoze PérezFWD	Villarreal	1.18	64provisional	0.92	24%	56	042% 135% 216% 36% 41% 5+0%
Sergi CardonaDEF	Villarreal	1.18	65provisional	0.91	24%	66	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 5+0%
Renato VeigaDEF	Villarreal	0.94	78provisional	0.84	21%	53	045% 135% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%

10 of 29 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 29 →

Shots29 playersHighest: Georges Mikautadze, 2.31 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Georges MikautadzeFWD	Villarreal	2.80	72provisional	2.31	63%	33	014% 123% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+5%
Ayoze PérezFWD	Villarreal	2.59	64provisional	1.96	55%	56	019% 126% 223% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Nicolas PépéFWD	Villarreal	2.17	69provisional	1.73	49%	65	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Pape GueyeMID	Villarreal	1.85	73provisional	1.55	45%	65	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Alberto MoleiroFWD	Villarreal	1.74	75provisional	1.50	43%	73	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gerard MorenoFWD	Villarreal	2.55	42provisional	1.36	37%	40	030% 132% 220% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ilias AkhomachFWD	Villarreal	2.20	47provisional	1.28	35%	32	034% 131% 219% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Carlos RomeroDEF	Villarreal	1.14	83provisional	1.07	29%	71	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tani OluwaseyiFWD	Villarreal	1.70	50provisional	1.03	28%	27	042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Santi ComesañaMID	Villarreal	1.11	76provisional	0.96	25%	70	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%

10 of 29 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 29 →

Shots on target29 playersHighest: Georges Mikautadze, 1.07 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Georges MikautadzeFWD	Villarreal	1.29	72provisional	1.07	63%	33	037% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ayoze PérezFWD	Villarreal	1.09	64provisional	0.82	54%	56	046% 133% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Nicolas PépéFWD	Villarreal	0.88	69provisional	0.70	49%	65	051% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Alberto MoleiroFWD	Villarreal	0.70	75provisional	0.60	44%	73	056% 132% 210% 32% 4+0%
Gerard MorenoFWD	Villarreal	1.08	42provisional	0.57	42%	40	058% 130% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Pape GueyeMID	Villarreal	0.55	73provisional	0.46	36%	65	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Ilias AkhomachFWD	Villarreal	0.78	47provisional	0.45	35%	32	065% 126% 27% 31% 4+0%
Tani OluwaseyiFWD	Villarreal	0.71	50provisional	0.43	33%	27	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Álex ForésFWD	—	0.84	31provisional	0.34	26%	18	074% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Tajon BuchananFWD	Villarreal	0.53	45provisional	0.30	25%	54	075% 121% 24% 3+1%

10 of 29 players shown, ranked by projection. Show all 29 →

Fouls won29 playersHighest: Pape Gueye, 1.82 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Pape GueyeMID	Villarreal	2.19	73provisional	1.82	53%	65	019% 128% 224% 315% 48% 53% 6+2%
Ilias AkhomachFWD	Villarreal	3.09	47provisional	1.76	48%	32	024% 128% 221% 313% 47% 54% 6+3%
Georges MikautadzeFWD	Villarreal	1.76	72provisional	1.44	41%	33	027% 132% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ayoze PérezFWD	Villarreal	1.87	64provisional	1.40	40%	56	029% 132% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Nicolas PépéFWD	Villarreal	1.71	69provisional	1.35	38%	65	030% 132% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Santiago MouriñoDEF	Villarreal	1.38	82provisional	1.27	36%	54	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Dani ParejoMID	Villarreal	1.73	51provisional	1.05	28%	68	041% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tajon BuchananFWD	Villarreal	1.84	45provisional	1.01	27%	54	042% 132% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Adrià AltimiraDEF	Deportivo A Coruña	1.34	63provisional	0.99	26%	24	040% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alberto MoleiroFWD	Villarreal	1.13	75provisional	0.96	25%	73	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Santi ComesañaMID	Villarreal	1.09	76provisional	0.94	24%	70	041% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Sergi CardonaDEF	Villarreal	1.15	65provisional	0.86	22%	66	046% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Pau CabanesFWD	Villarreal	2.69	22provisional	0.81	19%	17	048% 133% 213% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Carlos RomeroDEF	Villarreal	0.85	83provisional	0.80	19%	71	046% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Gerard MorenoFWD	Villarreal	1.25	42provisional	0.65	15%	40	055% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Álex ForésFWD	—	1.61	31provisional	0.63	14%	18	059% 127% 210% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Tani OluwaseyiFWD	Villarreal	1.01	50provisional	0.60	14%	27	058% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
AngeliñoDEF	—	0.83	55provisional	0.53	11%	45	062% 127% 29% 32% 40% 5+0%
Thomas ParteyMID	Villarreal	0.91	45provisional	0.49	10%	60	065% 125% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
Pau NavarroDEF	Villarreal	0.53	74provisional	0.45	8%	40	064% 128% 27% 31% 4+0%
Alex FreemanDEF	Villarreal	0.90	40provisional	0.44	9%	10	068% 123% 27% 32% 4+0%
Renato VeigaDEF	Villarreal	0.33	78provisional	0.29	4%	53	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Juan FoythDEF	Villarreal	0.29	79provisional	0.26	3%	33	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Luiz JúniorGK	Villarreal	0.23	88provisional	0.23	2%	46	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Arnau TenasGK	Villarreal	0.15	86provisional	0.14	1%	10	087% 112% 2+1%
Willy KambwalaDEF	Villarreal	0.19	54provisional	0.12	1%	21	089% 110% 2+1%
Logan CostaDEF	Villarreal	0.18	55provisional	0.12	1%	34	089% 110% 2+1%
Leo RománGK	Deportivo A Coruña	0.09	89provisional	0.09	0%	41	091% 18% 2+0%
Péter GulácsiGK	—	0.05	87provisional	0.05	0%	53	095% 15% 2+0%

All 29 players shown, ranked by projection. Show fewer ↥

Saves4 playersHighest: Leo Román, 3.28 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Leo RománGK	Deportivo A Coruña	3.32	89provisional	3.28	61%	41	05% 114% 220% 320% 416% 511% 6+14%
Luiz JúniorGK	Villarreal	2.26	88provisional	2.22	38%	46	013% 124% 225% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%
Péter GulácsiGK	—	2.23	87provisional	2.17	36%	53	013% 125% 225% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Arnau TenasGK	Villarreal	2.13	86provisional	2.06	34%	10	015% 126% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+3%

2 of 7 markets have no projection for this fixture.