La Liga · Spain
Celta de VigovOsasuna
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls37 playersHighest: Lucas Torró Marset, 1.22 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Lucas Torró Marsetprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.43
032%134%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Ante Budimirprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.22
037%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Jon Moncayola Tollarprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.26
037%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Aimar Orozprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.23
038%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.31
043%130%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Alejandro Catena Marugánprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.99
039%135%217%36%42%5+0% - Flavien-Enzo Boyomosprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.99
040%135%217%36%42%5+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.23
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Valentin Rosierprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.02
041%135%216%36%42%5+0% - Rubén García Santosprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.27
042%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Moisés Gómez Bordonadoprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 2.15
049%128%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Borja Iglesias Quintasprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.52
046%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.21
045%132%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.00
045%133%215%35%41%5+0% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.31
048%130%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.86
045%135%215%34%41%5+0% - Jorge Herrando Orozprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.13
049%130%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Javier Rodríguez Galianoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.97
048%133%214%34%41%5+0% - Carl Starfeltprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.88
047%133%214%34%41%5+0% - Hugo Álvarez Antúnezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.31
050%130%213%35%41%50%6+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles37 playersHighest: Moriba Kourouma Kourouma, 1.68 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.68
- O 1.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 2.25
024%128%222%314%47%53%6+2% - Jon Moncayola Tollarprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.63
- O 1.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 1.93
022%131%225%314%46%52%6+1% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.58
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.83
025%129%224%314%46%52%6+1% - Flavien-Enzo Boyomosprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.56
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.63
022%132%225%313%45%52%6+1% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.49
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.94
030%128%221%313%46%52%6+1% - Lucas Torró Marsetprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.48
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.74
024%132%224%312%45%52%6+1% - Valentin Rosierprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.45
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.59
024%133%224%312%45%51%6+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.43
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.85
028%131%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Carl Starfeltprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.35
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.51
028%133%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Alejandro Catena Marugánprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.36
027%135%223%310%43%51%6+0% - Aimar Orozprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.54
029%134%222%310%44%51%6+0% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.33
029%135%222%310%43%51%6+0% - Javier Rodríguez Galianoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.55
031%133%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Abel Bretones Cruzprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.94
037%128%218%310%45%52%6+1% - Carlos Domínguez Cáceresprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.66
034%131%220%310%44%51%6+0% - Sergio Carreira Vilariñoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.41
033%133%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Jorge Herrando Orozprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.60
037%131%219%39%43%51%6+0% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.80
037%131%218%39%43%51%6+0% - Rubén García Santosprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.44
037%134%219%37%42%51%6+0% - Manuel Fernández Arroyoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.65
043%130%216%37%42%51%6+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots37 playersHighest: Ante Budimir, 1.61 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Ante Budimirprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.61
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.83
025%130%222%313%46%53%6+2% - Iago Aspas Juncalprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.50
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 2.88
035%127%216%310%46%53%6+3% - Ferran Jutlgà Blancprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.49
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 2.42
030%129%219%311%46%53%6+2% - Borja Iglesias Quintasprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.41
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 2.37
033%129%218%310%45%52%6+2% - Pablo Durán Fernándezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.37
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 2.49
036%128%217%310%45%53%6+2% - Hugo Álvarez Antúnezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.15
036%129%218%39%45%52%6+1% - Williot Swedbergprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.56
036%131%218%39%44%52%6+1% - Rubén García Santosprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.56
037%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Jones El-Abdellaouiprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 30
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 2.87
046%130%213%35%43%51%6+1% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.24
045%130%215%37%42%51%6+0% - Raul Moro Prescoliprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.88
047%129%214%36%43%51%6+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.17
045%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.11
048%131%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.26
050%130%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Raúl García de Haroprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 26
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 2.78
054%128%210%34%42%51%6+1% - Aimar Orozprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.92
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Lucas Torró Marsetprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.87
050%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Jon Moncayola Tollarprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.69
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.82
052%132%212%33%41%5+0% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.58
- O 1.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.61
057%131%29%32%4+1% - Iker Muñoz Camerosprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.45
- O 1.5
- 9%
- Model /90
- 1.09
067%124%27%32%40%5+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target37 playersHighest: Ferran Jutlgà Blanc, 0.74 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Ferran Jutlgà Blancprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 0.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 1.20
052%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Borja Iglesias Quintasprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 0.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 1.24
052%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Iago Aspas Juncalprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.65
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.25
058%127%210%34%41%50%6+0% - Ante Budimirprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.62
- O 0.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 0.71
056%131%210%33%41%5+0% - Hugo Álvarez Antúnezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.55
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 0.91
061%127%29%32%41%5+0% - Williot Swedbergprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.13
061%128%28%32%41%5+0% - Pablo Durán Fernándezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.97
062%126%28%32%41%5+0% - Rubén García Santosprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 0.56
068%125%26%31%4+0% - Raúl García de Haroprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 26
- Proj.
- 0.38
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.32
072%121%25%31%40%5+0% - Jones El-Abdellaouiprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 30
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.97
075%120%24%31%4+0% - Raul Moro Prescoliprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.62
075%120%24%31%4+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.37
076%119%24%3+1% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.27
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.36
077%119%23%3+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.32
079%118%23%3+0% - Jon Moncayola Tollarprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.22
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.26
081%117%22%3+0% - Aimar Orozprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.25
081%116%22%3+0% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.33
082%116%22%3+0% - Lucas Torró Marsetprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.23
082%116%22%3+0% - Enrique Barja Afonsoprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 18
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.82
086%113%22%3+0% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.17
085%114%2+1%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won37 playersHighest: Aimar Oroz, 1.30 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Aimar Orozprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.30
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.54
032%132%220%310%44%51%6+1% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.73
035%130%218%310%44%52%6+1% - Ante Budimirprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.30
036%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Ferran Jutlgà Blancprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.73
041%131%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Iago Aspas Juncalprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 2.00
045%128%214%37%43%51%6+1% - Williot Swedbergprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 2.10
043%131%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.30
044%129%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Rubén García Santosprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.35
041%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Borja Iglesias Quintasprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.65
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Hugo Álvarez Antúnezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.64
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.27
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.12
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Lucas Torró Marsetprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.13
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Pablo Durán Fernándezprovisional
FWD · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.70
047%129%214%36%43%51%6+0% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.38
048%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Raul Moro Prescoliprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.61
052%129%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Jon Moncayola Tollarprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.92
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.77
050%133%212%34%41%5+0% - Javier Rodríguez Galianoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.89
051%131%212%34%41%5+0% - Sergio Carreira Vilariñoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.85
052%131%212%34%41%5+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards37 playersHighest: Alejandro Catena Marugán, 0.20 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Alejandro Catena Marugánprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.20
082%116%22%3+0% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.18
084%114%2+1% - Aimar Orozprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.20
085%114%2+1% - Jon Moncayola Tollarprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.20
085%114%2+1% - Lucas Torró Marsetprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%113%2+1% - Valentin Rosierprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Flavien-Enzo Boyomosprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%113%2+1% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%112%2+1% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.20
087%112%2+1% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.19
087%112%2+1% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.18
087%112%2+1% - Javier Rodríguez Galianoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.16
088%111%2+1% - Abel Bretones Cruzprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.19
088%111%2+1% - Carl Starfeltprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Moisés Gómez Bordonadoprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 39
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.29
089%110%2+1% - Javier Rueda Garcíaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.20
089%110%2+1% - Jorge Herrando Orozprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.17
089%110%2+1% - Damián Rodríguez Sousaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.19
089%110%2+1% - Carlos Domínguez Cáceresprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.16
089%110%2+1% - Manuel Fernández Arroyoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.19
090%110%2+1%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves37 playersHighest: Sergio Herrera Pirón, 3.33 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Sergio Herrera Pirónprovisional
GK · Osasuna
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 3.33
- O 2.5
- 62%
- Model /90
- 3.36
05%114%219%320%416%511%6+14% - Ionuț Andrei Raduprovisional
GK · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.54
- O 2.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.54
010%121%224%319%413%57%6+6% - Alejandro Catena Marugánprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Flavien-Enzo Boyomosprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Valentin Rosierprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ante Budimirprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lucas Torró Marsetprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jon Moncayola Tollarprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Aimar Orozprovisional
MID · Osasuna
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Rubén García Santosprovisional
FWD · Osasuna
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jorge Herrando Orozprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Marcos Alonso Mendozaprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Abel Bretones Cruzprovisional
DEF · Osasuna
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Carl Starfeltprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Yoel Lago Amilprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sergio Carreira Vilariñoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Javier Rodríguez Galianoprovisional
DEF · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Miguel Román Gonzálezprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Francisco José Beltrán Peinadoprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Moriba Kourouma Kouroumaprovisional
MID · Celta de Vigo
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.