PER90My betsAccount

La Liga · Spain

Celta de VigovOsasuna

Abanca-Balaídoslineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls37 playersHighest: Lucas Torró Marset, 1.22 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Lucas Torró Marset

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.43
    032%
    134%
    221%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ante Budimir

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.22
    037%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jon Moncayola Tollar

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.05
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.26
    037%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Aimar Oroz

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.23
    038%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Miguel Román González

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.31
    043%
    130%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.99
    039%
    135%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    5+0%
  • Flavien-Enzo Boyomos

    DEF · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.99
    040%
    135%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.23
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Valentin Rosier

    DEF · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.02
    041%
    135%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    5+0%
  • Rubén García Santos

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.27
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    2.15
    049%
    128%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Borja Iglesias Quintas

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.52
    046%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Moriba Kourouma Kourouma

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.21
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Yoel Lago Amil

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.86
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.00
    045%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Damián Rodríguez Sousa

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.31
    048%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Marcos Alonso Mendoza

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.86
    045%
    135%
    215%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jorge Herrando Oroz

    DEF · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.13
    049%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Javier Rodríguez Galiano

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.97
    048%
    133%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Carl Starfelt

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.88
    047%
    133%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Hugo Álvarez Antúnez

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.31
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles37 playersHighest: Moriba Kourouma Kourouma, 1.68 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Moriba Kourouma Kourouma

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.68
    O 1.5
    48%
    Model /90
    2.25
    024%
    128%
    222%
    314%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Jon Moncayola Tollar

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.63
    O 1.5
    48%
    Model /90
    1.93
    022%
    131%
    225%
    314%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Yoel Lago Amil

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.58
    O 1.5
    47%
    Model /90
    1.83
    025%
    129%
    224%
    314%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Flavien-Enzo Boyomos

    DEF · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.56
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    1.63
    022%
    132%
    225%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Miguel Román González

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.49
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.94
    030%
    128%
    221%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Lucas Torró Marset

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.48
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.74
    024%
    132%
    224%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Valentin Rosier

    DEF · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.45
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.59
    024%
    133%
    224%
    312%
    45%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.43
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.85
    028%
    131%
    222%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Carl Starfelt

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.35
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.51
    028%
    133%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    1.33
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.36
    027%
    135%
    223%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Aimar Oroz

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.54
    029%
    134%
    222%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Marcos Alonso Mendoza

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.27
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.33
    029%
    135%
    222%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Javier Rodríguez Galiano

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.27
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.55
    031%
    133%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Abel Bretones Cruz

    DEF · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.94
    037%
    128%
    218%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Carlos Domínguez Cáceres

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.66
    034%
    131%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sergio Carreira Vilariño

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.41
    033%
    133%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jorge Herrando Oroz

    DEF · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.60
    037%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Damián Rodríguez Sousa

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.80
    037%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Rubén García Santos

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.44
    037%
    134%
    219%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Manuel Fernández Arroyo

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.65
    043%
    130%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots37 playersHighest: Ante Budimir, 1.61 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Ante Budimir

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.61
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.83
    025%
    130%
    222%
    313%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Iago Aspas Juncal

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    1.50
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    2.88
    035%
    127%
    216%
    310%
    46%
    53%
    6+3%
  • Ferran Jutlgà Blanc

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.49
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    2.42
    030%
    129%
    219%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Borja Iglesias Quintas

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    1.41
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    2.37
    033%
    129%
    218%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Pablo Durán Fernández

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    2.49
    036%
    128%
    217%
    310%
    45%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Hugo Álvarez Antúnez

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    2.15
    036%
    129%
    218%
    39%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Williot Swedberg

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    2.56
    036%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Rubén García Santos

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.56
    037%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jones El-Abdellaoui

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    30
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    2.87
    046%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Miguel Román González

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.24
    045%
    130%
    215%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Raul Moro Prescoli

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.88
    047%
    129%
    214%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.17
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Moriba Kourouma Kourouma

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.11
    048%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Damián Rodríguez Sousa

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.26
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Raúl García de Haro

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    26
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    2.78
    054%
    128%
    210%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Aimar Oroz

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.92
    049%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Lucas Torró Marset

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.87
    050%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Jon Moncayola Tollar

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.69
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.82
    052%
    132%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Marcos Alonso Mendoza

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.58
    O 1.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.61
    057%
    131%
    29%
    32%
    4+1%
  • Iker Muñoz Cameros

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    0.45
    O 1.5
    9%
    Model /90
    1.09
    067%
    124%
    27%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target37 playersHighest: Ferran Jutlgà Blanc, 0.74 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Ferran Jutlgà Blanc

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 0.5
    48%
    Model /90
    1.20
    052%
    130%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Borja Iglesias Quintas

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 0.5
    48%
    Model /90
    1.24
    052%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Iago Aspas Juncal

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.65
    O 0.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.25
    058%
    127%
    210%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Ante Budimir

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.62
    O 0.5
    44%
    Model /90
    0.71
    056%
    131%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Hugo Álvarez Antúnez

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.55
    O 0.5
    39%
    Model /90
    0.91
    061%
    127%
    29%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Williot Swedberg

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.54
    O 0.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.13
    061%
    128%
    28%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Pablo Durán Fernández

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.54
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.97
    062%
    126%
    28%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Rubén García Santos

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    32%
    Model /90
    0.56
    068%
    125%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Raúl García de Haro

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    26
    Proj.
    0.38
    O 0.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.32
    072%
    121%
    25%
    31%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Jones El-Abdellaoui

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    30
    Proj.
    0.32
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.97
    075%
    120%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Raul Moro Prescoli

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.62
    075%
    120%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Miguel Román González

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.37
    076%
    119%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Moriba Kourouma Kourouma

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.27
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.36
    077%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.32
    079%
    118%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Jon Moncayola Tollar

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.22
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.26
    081%
    117%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Aimar Oroz

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.25
    081%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Damián Rodríguez Sousa

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.33
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Lucas Torró Marset

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.23
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Enrique Barja Afonso

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    18
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.82
    086%
    113%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Marcos Alonso Mendoza

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.17
    085%
    114%
    2+1%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won37 playersHighest: Aimar Oroz, 1.30 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Aimar Oroz

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.30
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.54
    032%
    132%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Moriba Kourouma Kourouma

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.73
    035%
    130%
    218%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ante Budimir

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.30
    036%
    133%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ferran Jutlgà Blanc

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.73
    041%
    131%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Iago Aspas Juncal

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    2.00
    045%
    128%
    214%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Williot Swedberg

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    2.10
    043%
    131%
    215%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Miguel Román González

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.30
    044%
    129%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Rubén García Santos

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.35
    041%
    132%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Borja Iglesias Quintas

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.65
    044%
    130%
    215%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Hugo Álvarez Antúnez

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    54
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.64
    044%
    130%
    215%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.27
    042%
    132%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Yoel Lago Amil

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.12
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Lucas Torró Marset

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.13
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Pablo Durán Fernández

    FWD · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.70
    047%
    129%
    214%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Damián Rodríguez Sousa

    MID · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.38
    048%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Raul Moro Prescoli

    FWD · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    45
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.61
    052%
    129%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jon Moncayola Tollar

    MID · Osasuna

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.92
    049%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Marcos Alonso Mendoza

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.77
    050%
    133%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Javier Rodríguez Galiano

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.89
    051%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Sergio Carreira Vilariño

    DEF · Celta de Vigo

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.85
    052%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards37 playersHighest: Alejandro Catena Marugán, 0.20 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves37 playersHighest: Sergio Herrera Pirón, 3.33 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.