Premier League · England
ArsenalvCoventry City
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls44 playersHighest: Ogochukwu Onyeka Frank, 1.08 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Ogochukwu Onyeka Frankprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.08
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.33
037%134%219%38%42%51%6+0% - Ephron Mason-Clarkprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.08
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.50
038%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Ben Sheafprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.30
040%132%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Kai Havertzprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.31
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Martín Zubimendi Ibáñezprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.15
039%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Matt Grimesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.99
039%135%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Jack Rudoniprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.10
041%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Bukayo Sakaprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.19
042%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Haji Wrightprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.22
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Declan Riceprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.00
041%135%216%36%42%5+0% - Mikel Merino Zazónprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.56
048%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Victor Torp Overgaardprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.37
045%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Viktor Gyökeresprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.29
045%132%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Leandro Trossardprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.22
048%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Josh Ecclesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.46
049%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Tatsuhiro Sakamotoprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.14
046%132%215%35%41%5+0% - Gabriel Fernando de Jesusprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 33
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 2.25
053%126%211%35%42%51%6+1% - Martin Ødegaardprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.06
048%132%214%35%41%5+0% - Jurriën Timberprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.88
047%134%214%34%41%5+0% - Liam Kitchingprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.82
046%134%214%34%41%5+0%
20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles44 playersHighest: Matt Grimes, 2.00 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Matt Grimesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 2.00
- O 1.5
- 59%
- Model /90
- 2.02
014%127%227%318%49%54%6+2% - Ogochukwu Onyeka Frankprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.97
- O 1.5
- 58%
- Model /90
- 2.42
017%126%225%317%49%54%6+2% - Ben Sheafprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.94
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.44
020%125%223%316%49%54%6+3% - Martín Zubimendi Ibáñezprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.86
- O 1.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 2.12
018%128%225%316%48%53%6+2% - Declan Riceprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.83
- O 1.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 1.97
017%129%226%316%48%53%6+1% - Milan van Ewijkprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.73
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 1.77
018%130%226%315%47%52%6+1% - Jack Rudoniprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.63
- O 1.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 1.88
022%130%224%314%46%52%6+1% - Jay Dasilvaprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.62
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.96
025%128%223%314%47%52%6+1% - Jurriën Timberprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.61
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.78
022%131%225%314%46%52%6+1% - Victor Torp Overgaardprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.52
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.30
028%129%221%312%46%52%6+1% - Ephron Mason-Clarkprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.41
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.96
028%132%222%311%45%52%6+1% - Piero Martín Hincapié Reynaprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.40
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.76
030%130%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Liam Kitchingprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.40
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.45
025%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - William Salibaprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.40
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.47
025%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Joel Latibeaudiereprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.40
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.56
027%132%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Bobby Thomasprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.40
026%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Martin Ødegaardprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.78
030%132%222%311%44%51%6+1% - Mikel Merino Zazónprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 2.31
035%128%218%311%45%52%6+1% - Eberechi Ezeprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 2.13
031%131%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Josh Ecclesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 2.19
036%129%218%310%45%52%6+1%
20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots44 playersHighest: Bukayo Saka, 2.09 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Bukayo Sakaprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 2.09
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 2.65
019%125%222%315%49%55%6+5% - Kai Havertzprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.97
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.53
021%126%221%315%49%55%6+4% - Leandro Trossardprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.83
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.61
027%125%218%312%48%54%6+4% - Viktor Gyökeresprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.77
- O 1.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 2.57
025%127%220%313%47%54%6+3% - Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli Silvaprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.60
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.69
030%128%218%311%46%53%6+3% - Chukwunonso Maduekeprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 2.65
035%128%218%310%45%52%6+2% - Haji Wrightprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.35
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.76
033%130%219%310%45%52%6+1% - Gabriel Fernando de Jesusprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 33
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 3.61
041%127%213%37%44%53%6+4% - Declan Riceprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.31
033%133%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Martín Zubimendi Ibáñezprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.27
037%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Martin Ødegaardprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.43
039%132%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Tatsuhiro Sakamotoprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.46
039%131%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Ellis Simmsprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 2.03
046%127%214%37%43%51%6+1% - Brandon Thomas-Asanteprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.88
045%128%215%37%43%51%6+1% - Eberechi Ezeprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.58
043%131%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Mikel Merino Zazónprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.68
046%128%214%37%43%51%6+1% - Jack Rudoniprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.02
045%133%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Victor Torp Overgaardprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.21
050%130%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Matt Grimesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.77
048%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Ephron Mason-Clarkprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.06
050%132%213%34%41%5+0%
20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target41 playersHighest: Bukayo Saka, 0.77 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Bukayo Sakaprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 0.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 0.98
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Kai Havertzprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 0.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 0.94
051%131%212%34%41%5+0% - Viktor Gyökeresprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 0.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.03
053%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Leandro Trossardprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.70
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.00
055%129%211%34%41%5+0% - Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli Silvaprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.69
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.16
055%129%211%34%41%5+0% - Gabriel Fernando de Jesusprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 33
- Proj.
- 0.60
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.65
062%124%29%33%41%50%6+0% - Chukwunonso Maduekeprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.04
061%127%29%32%41%5+0% - Haji Wrightprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.53
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 0.69
061%128%28%32%4+1% - Ellis Simmsprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.46
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.90
067%123%27%32%40%5+0% - Tatsuhiro Sakamotoprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 0.54
068%125%26%31%4+0% - Declan Riceprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.39
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.42
069%125%25%31%4+0% - Martin Ødegaardprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.49
070%124%25%31%4+0% - Martín Zubimendi Ibáñezprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.41
071%124%25%31%4+0% - Mikel Merino Zazónprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.62
072%121%25%31%4+0% - Brandon Thomas-Asanteprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.65
072%121%25%31%4+0% - Eberechi Ezeprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.50
074%121%24%3+1% - Ephron Mason-Clarkprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.43
074%121%24%3+1% - Jack Rudoniprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.33
076%120%23%3+0% - Victor Torp Overgaardprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.38
078%118%23%3+0% - Ogochukwu Onyeka Frankprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.24
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.29
079%118%22%3+0%
20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won44 playersHighest: Bukayo Saka, 1.17 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Bukayo Sakaprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.48
036%132%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Tatsuhiro Sakamotoprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.51
038%131%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Kai Havertzprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.39
039%132%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Ephron Mason-Clarkprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.48
039%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Chukwunonso Maduekeprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 2.02
043%129%216%37%43%51%6+1% - Ogochukwu Onyeka Frankprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.22
041%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Jack Rudoniprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.13
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Leandro Trossardprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.38
045%129%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Matt Grimesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.92
043%134%216%35%42%50%6+0% - Viktor Gyökeresprovisional
FWD · Arsenal
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.31
045%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Haji Wrightprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.16
046%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Martín Zubimendi Ibáñezprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.01
044%133%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Eberechi Ezeprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.39
047%131%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Ben Sheafprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.09
046%131%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Mikel Merino Zazónprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.42
051%128%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Declan Riceprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.88
047%133%214%35%41%5+0% - Martin Ødegaardprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.06
049%131%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Josh Ecclesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.34
052%128%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Victor Torp Overgaardprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.14
052%130%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Brandon Thomas-Asanteprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.37
054%128%212%34%42%50%6+0%
20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards44 playersHighest: Ogochukwu Onyeka Frank, 0.20 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Ogochukwu Onyeka Frankprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.25
082%116%22%3+0% - Matt Grimesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.20
082%116%22%3+0% - Ben Sheafprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.23
083%115%22%3+0% - Liam Kitchingprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.18
084%115%21%3+0% - Martín Zubimendi Ibáñezprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.20
084%114%21%3+0% - Declan Riceprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.19
084%114%2+1% - Jurriën Timberprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%114%2+1% - Bobby Thomasprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.17
085%114%2+1% - Myles Lewis-Skellyprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.30
086%112%21%3+0% - Gabriel dos Santos Magalhãesprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%113%2+1% - Joel Latibeaudiereprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Josh Ecclesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.26
086%112%21%3+0% - Martin Ødegaardprovisional
MID · Arsenal
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.20
086%112%2+1% - Jay Dasilvaprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.18
086%112%2+1% - Milan van Ewijkprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.15
086%113%2+1% - Riccardo Calafioriprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.22
087%112%2+1% - Ephron Mason-Clarkprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.20
087%112%2+1% - William Salibaprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.15
087%112%2+1% - Piero Martín Hincapié Reynaprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.18
087%112%2+1% - Luke Woolfendenprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.20
087%112%2+1%
20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves44 playersHighest: Carl Rushworth, 3.10 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Carl Rushworthprovisional
GK · Coventry City
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.10
- O 2.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 3.10
06%116%221%320%415%510%6+12% - Oliver Nnonyelu Dovinprovisional
GK · Coventry City
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 3.01
- O 2.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 3.07
07%116%221%320%415%510%6+11% - David Raya Martinprovisional
GK · Arsenal
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.15
- O 2.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 2.15
014%125%225%318%410%55%6+3% - Bobby Thomasprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.01
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.01
099%1+1% - Luke Woolfendenprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.01
0100%1+0% - Joel Latibeaudiereprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Piero Martín Hincapié Reynaprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Liam Kitchingprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Cristhian Andrey Mosquera Ibarguenprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Gabriel dos Santos Magalhãesprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - William Salibaprovisional
DEF · Arsenal
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Milan van Ewijkprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Matt Grimesprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jack Rudoniprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jay Dasilvaprovisional
DEF · Coventry City
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ogochukwu Onyeka Frankprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ben Sheafprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Tatsuhiro Sakamotoprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Haji Wrightprovisional
FWD · Coventry City
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ephron Mason-Clarkprovisional
MID · Coventry City
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.