PER90My betsAccount

Premier League · England

EvertonvCrystal Palace

Hill Dickinson Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls37 playersHighest: Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncal, 1.25 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.25
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    2.43
    039%
    128%
    216%
    39%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Idrissa Gana Gueye

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.17
    037%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.10
    037%
    135%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • James Garner

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.08
    038%
    135%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.47
    042%
    131%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jørgen Strand Larsen

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.36
    040%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Edward Nketiah

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    2.48
    046%
    129%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Will Hughes

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.47
    044%
    131%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Adam Wharton

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.17
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Iliman Ndiaye

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.03
    042%
    135%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    5+0%
  • Yeremi Jesús Pino Santos

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.34
    044%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.14
    044%
    133%
    216%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Thiemo Barry

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.56
    048%
    129%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Daniel Muñoz Mejía

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.86
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.91
    043%
    135%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Daichi Kamada

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.34
    049%
    129%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ismaïla Sarr

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.01
    046%
    133%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Tim Iroegbunam

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    44
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.68
    054%
    124%
    212%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Harrison Armstrong

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    0.77
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.92
    056%
    125%
    211%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Merlin Röhl

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.55
    055%
    127%
    211%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • James Tarkowski

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.74
    049%
    134%
    213%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles37 playersHighest: Adam Wharton, 2.51 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Adam Wharton

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    2.51
    O 1.5
    68%
    Model /90
    3.14
    012%
    120%
    222%
    319%
    413%
    57%
    6+6%
  • Daniel Muñoz Mejía

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    2.09
    O 1.5
    62%
    Model /90
    2.20
    013%
    126%
    227%
    319%
    410%
    54%
    6+2%
  • James Garner

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    2.08
    O 1.5
    60%
    Model /90
    2.20
    014%
    125%
    226%
    318%
    410%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Idrissa Gana Gueye

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    2.02
    O 1.5
    59%
    Model /90
    2.22
    016%
    125%
    225%
    318%
    410%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Daichi Kamada

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    2.00
    O 1.5
    53%
    Model /90
    3.21
    024%
    123%
    218%
    314%
    410%
    56%
    6+5%
  • Tyrick Mitchell

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.90
    O 1.5
    56%
    Model /90
    2.02
    015%
    128%
    227%
    317%
    48%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.88
    O 1.5
    56%
    Model /90
    1.99
    016%
    129%
    226%
    317%
    48%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Tim Iroegbunam

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    44
    Proj.
    1.86
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    3.84
    034%
    121%
    213%
    311%
    49%
    56%
    6+6%
  • Merlin Röhl

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    1.78
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    3.74
    030%
    126%
    216%
    310%
    47%
    55%
    6+5%
  • Chris Richards

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    1.59
    O 1.5
    47%
    Model /90
    1.72
    023%
    130%
    224%
    314%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Will Hughes

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    1.54
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.41
    028%
    129%
    221%
    313%
    46%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Jaydee Canvot

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.49
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.01
    030%
    127%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.12
    029%
    129%
    221%
    312%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Vitalii Mykolenko

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.43
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.45
    024%
    134%
    224%
    312%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • James Tarkowski

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.42
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.43
    024%
    134%
    224%
    312%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jake O´Brien

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.36
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.48
    027%
    133%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Chadi Riad

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.88
    030%
    132%
    221%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Justin Devenny

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    30
    Proj.
    1.33
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    4.04
    042%
    127%
    212%
    37%
    45%
    53%
    6+4%
  • Michael Keane

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.47
    033%
    131%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jarrad Branthwaite

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.25
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.41
    032%
    132%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots37 playersHighest: Iliman Ndiaye, 1.92 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Iliman Ndiaye

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.92
    O 1.5
    54%
    Model /90
    2.14
    019%
    127%
    223%
    315%
    48%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.68
    O 1.5
    47%
    Model /90
    2.14
    025%
    128%
    221%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Ismaïla Sarr

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.65
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    2.00
    026%
    128%
    221%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Jørgen Strand Larsen

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.57
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.17
    026%
    130%
    222%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.53
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    2.98
    035%
    126%
    216%
    310%
    46%
    53%
    6+3%
  • Yeremi Jesús Pino Santos

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    2.14
    030%
    129%
    220%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Thiemo Barry

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    1.41
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    2.52
    036%
    127%
    217%
    310%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Idrissa Gana Gueye

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.24
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.36
    034%
    132%
    220%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.29
    033%
    134%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • James Garner

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.21
    035%
    133%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Edward Nketiah

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    2.69
    045%
    129%
    214%
    36%
    43%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Carlos Alcaraz

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.96
    050%
    127%
    212%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Adam Wharton

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.86
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.08
    046%
    132%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Tim Iroegbunam

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    44
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.69
    055%
    124%
    212%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tyler Dibling

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    25
    Proj.
    0.80
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    2.87
    060%
    121%
    29%
    35%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.14
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Daichi Kamada

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.15
    054%
    128%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Merlin Röhl

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    43
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.51
    057%
    126%
    210%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Will Hughes

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.10
    053%
    130%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Tyrique George

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    19
    Proj.
    0.68
    O 1.5
    15%
    Model /90
    3.20
    056%
    129%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target35 playersHighest: Iliman Ndiaye, 0.89 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Iliman Ndiaye

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 0.5
    56%
    Model /90
    1.00
    044%
    134%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 0.5
    51%
    Model /90
    1.00
    049%
    132%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Ismaïla Sarr

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 0.5
    49%
    Model /90
    0.90
    051%
    131%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.65
    O 0.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.26
    058%
    126%
    210%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Jørgen Strand Larsen

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.57
    O 0.5
    42%
    Model /90
    0.79
    058%
    130%
    29%
    32%
    4+1%
  • Thiemo Barry

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.54
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.97
    062%
    126%
    29%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Yeremi Jesús Pino Santos

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.48
    O 0.5
    36%
    Model /90
    0.71
    064%
    127%
    27%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.43
    O 0.5
    34%
    Model /90
    0.45
    066%
    127%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Edward Nketiah

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.05
    070%
    122%
    26%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • James Garner

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.36
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.38
    070%
    124%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Carlos Alcaraz

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.66
    076%
    119%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Idrissa Gana Gueye

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.32
    075%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Tyler Dibling

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    25
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.05
    079%
    116%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Tyrique George

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    19
    Proj.
    0.27
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.30
    078%
    118%
    23%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.26
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.37
    078%
    118%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Adam Wharton

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.25
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.31
    078%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Daniel Muñoz Mejía

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.24
    080%
    118%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Romain Esse

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    18
    Proj.
    0.22
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.11
    083%
    113%
    22%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Justin Devenny

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    30
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.65
    083%
    114%
    23%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Tim Iroegbunam

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    44
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.41
    083%
    114%
    22%
    3+0%

20 of 35 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won37 playersHighest: Iliman Ndiaye, 1.19 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Iliman Ndiaye

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.34
    034%
    133%
    219%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ismaïla Sarr

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.39
    037%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.13
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.20
    035%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • James Garner

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.10
    039%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Idrissa Gana Gueye

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.13
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.37
    045%
    130%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jørgen Strand Larsen

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.28
    043%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tim Iroegbunam

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    44
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.91
    052%
    124%
    212%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Adam Wharton

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.13
    044%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.12
    045%
    132%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Yeremi Jesús Pino Santos

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.24
    047%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Will Hughes

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.26
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Harrison Armstrong

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.96
    056%
    124%
    211%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • James Tarkowski

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.71
    051%
    133%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Carlos Alcaraz

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.54
    057%
    126%
    210%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Vitalii Mykolenko

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.70
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.71
    051%
    133%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Tyler Dibling

    FWD · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    25
    Proj.
    0.68
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    2.45
    063%
    121%
    28%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Daichi Kamada

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.68
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    1.09
    056%
    128%
    211%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Edward Nketiah

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.67
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    1.71
    058%
    127%
    210%
    34%
    41%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.66
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    1.28
    058%
    126%
    210%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards37 playersHighest: James Garner, 0.22 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • James Garner

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.22
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.23
    081%
    117%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.30
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.20
    083%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Daniel Muñoz Mejía

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.20
    083%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Will Hughes

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    58
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.29
    084%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Idrissa Gana Gueye

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.20
    084%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Tim Iroegbunam

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    44
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.36
    085%
    113%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Jake O´Brien

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.18
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Adam Wharton

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.21
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • James Tarkowski

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.16
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Chris Richards

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.17
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Vitalii Mykolenko

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.15
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Chadi Riad

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.21
    086%
    112%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.29
    087%
    112%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Tyrick Mitchell

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.16
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Jaydee Canvot

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.20
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Carlos Alcaraz

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.32
    087%
    112%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Jarrad Branthwaite

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Daichi Kamada

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.23
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Michael Keane

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.17
    087%
    112%
    2+1%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves37 playersHighest: Dean Henderson, 3.08 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Dean Henderson

    GK · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    3.08
    O 2.5
    57%
    Model /90
    3.08
    06%
    116%
    221%
    320%
    415%
    510%
    6+11%
  • Jordan Pickford

    GK · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.62
    O 2.5
    47%
    Model /90
    2.62
    09%
    120%
    224%
    320%
    413%
    58%
    6+7%
  • Chadi Riad

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.01
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jaydee Canvot

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Chris Richards

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    83
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jarrad Branthwaite

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Michael Keane

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • James Tarkowski

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Daniel Muñoz Mejía

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Tyrick Mitchell

    DEF · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ismaïla Sarr

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Adam Wharton

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jørgen Strand Larsen

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís

    MID · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Vitalii Mykolenko

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Yeremi Jesús Pino Santos

    FWD · Crystal Palace

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jake O´Brien

    DEF · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    82
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • James Garner

    MID · Everton

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.