Premier League · England
EvertonvCrystal Palace
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls37 playersHighest: Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncal, 1.25 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.25
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.43
039%128%216%39%45%52%6+1% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.17
037%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.10
037%135%218%37%42%51%6+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.08
038%135%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solísprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.47
042%131%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Jørgen Strand Larsenprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.36
040%134%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Edward Nketiahprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 2.48
046%129%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Will Hughesprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.47
044%131%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Adam Whartonprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.17
042%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.03
042%135%216%36%42%5+0% - Yeremi Jesús Pino Santosprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.34
044%132%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Jean-Philippe Matetaprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.14
044%133%216%35%42%50%6+0% - Thiemo Barryprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.56
048%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Daniel Muñoz Mejíaprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.91
043%135%215%35%41%5+0% - Daichi Kamadaprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.34
049%129%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Ismaïla Sarrprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.01
046%133%214%35%41%5+0% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.68
054%124%212%36%42%51%6+0% - Harrison Armstrongprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.92
056%125%211%35%42%51%6+0% - Merlin Röhlprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.55
055%127%211%35%42%51%6+0% - James Tarkowskiprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.74
049%134%213%33%41%5+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles37 playersHighest: Adam Wharton, 2.51 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Adam Whartonprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 2.51
- O 1.5
- 68%
- Model /90
- 3.14
012%120%222%319%413%57%6+6% - Daniel Muñoz Mejíaprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 2.09
- O 1.5
- 62%
- Model /90
- 2.20
013%126%227%319%410%54%6+2% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 2.08
- O 1.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 2.20
014%125%226%318%410%54%6+2% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 2.02
- O 1.5
- 59%
- Model /90
- 2.22
016%125%225%318%410%54%6+2% - Daichi Kamadaprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 2.00
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 3.21
024%123%218%314%410%56%6+5% - Tyrick Mitchellprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.90
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 2.02
015%128%227%317%48%53%6+1% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.88
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 1.99
016%129%226%317%48%53%6+1% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 1.86
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 3.84
034%121%213%311%49%56%6+6% - Merlin Röhlprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.78
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 3.74
030%126%216%310%47%55%6+5% - Chris Richardsprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.59
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.72
023%130%224%314%46%52%6+1% - Will Hughesprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.54
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.41
028%129%221%313%46%53%6+1% - Jaydee Canvotprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 1.49
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.01
030%127%220%312%46%52%6+1% - Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solísprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.12
029%129%221%312%46%52%6+1% - Vitalii Mykolenkoprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.43
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.45
024%134%224%312%44%51%6+0% - James Tarkowskiprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.43
024%134%224%312%44%51%6+0% - Jake O´Brienprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.48
027%133%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Chadi Riadprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.88
030%132%221%311%44%51%6+1% - Justin Devennyprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 30
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 4.04
042%127%212%37%45%53%6+4% - Michael Keaneprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.47
033%131%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Jarrad Branthwaiteprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.25
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.41
032%132%221%310%44%51%6+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots37 playersHighest: Iliman Ndiaye, 1.92 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.92
- O 1.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 2.14
019%127%223%315%48%54%6+3% - Jean-Philippe Matetaprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.68
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.14
025%128%221%313%47%53%6+2% - Ismaïla Sarrprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.65
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.00
026%128%221%313%47%53%6+2% - Jørgen Strand Larsenprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.57
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.17
026%130%222%312%46%53%6+2% - Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.53
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 2.98
035%126%216%310%46%53%6+3% - Yeremi Jesús Pino Santosprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 2.14
030%129%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Thiemo Barryprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.41
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 2.52
036%127%217%310%46%53%6+2% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.36
034%132%220%39%44%51%6+1% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.29
033%134%220%39%43%51%6+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.21
035%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Edward Nketiahprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 2.69
045%129%214%36%43%52%6+1% - Carlos Alcarazprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.96
050%127%212%36%43%51%6+1% - Adam Whartonprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.08
046%132%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.69
055%124%212%36%42%51%6+0% - Tyler Diblingprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 2.87
060%121%29%35%43%51%6+1% - Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solísprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.14
050%130%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Daichi Kamadaprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.15
054%128%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Merlin Röhlprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.51
057%126%210%34%42%51%6+0% - Will Hughesprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.10
053%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Tyrique Georgeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 19
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 3.20
056%129%210%33%41%51%6+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target35 playersHighest: Iliman Ndiaye, 0.89 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 0.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 1.00
044%134%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Jean-Philippe Matetaprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 0.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 1.00
049%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Ismaïla Sarrprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 0.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 0.90
051%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.65
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.26
058%126%210%34%41%50%6+0% - Jørgen Strand Larsenprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.57
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 0.79
058%130%29%32%4+1% - Thiemo Barryprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.97
062%126%29%33%41%5+0% - Yeremi Jesús Pino Santosprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.48
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.71
064%127%27%32%4+0% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 0.45
066%127%26%31%4+0% - Edward Nketiahprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.05
070%122%26%32%40%5+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.38
070%124%25%31%4+0% - Carlos Alcarazprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.66
076%119%24%31%4+0% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.32
075%121%24%3+1% - Tyler Diblingprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.05
079%116%24%31%4+0% - Tyrique Georgeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 19
- Proj.
- 0.27
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.30
078%118%23%31%4+0% - Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solísprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.26
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.37
078%118%23%3+0% - Adam Whartonprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.31
078%119%23%3+0% - Daniel Muñoz Mejíaprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.24
080%118%22%3+0% - Romain Esseprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 18
- Proj.
- 0.22
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.11
083%113%22%31%4+0% - Justin Devennyprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 30
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.65
083%114%23%31%4+0% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.41
083%114%22%3+0%
20 of 35 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won37 playersHighest: Iliman Ndiaye, 1.19 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.34
034%133%219%39%43%51%6+0% - Ismaïla Sarrprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.39
037%132%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.20
035%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.10
039%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.13
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solísprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.37
045%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Jørgen Strand Larsenprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.28
043%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.91
052%124%212%37%43%51%6+1% - Adam Whartonprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.13
044%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Jean-Philippe Matetaprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.12
045%132%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Yeremi Jesús Pino Santosprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.24
047%131%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Will Hughesprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.26
050%130%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Harrison Armstrongprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.96
056%124%211%35%42%51%6+1% - James Tarkowskiprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.71
051%133%212%33%41%5+0% - Carlos Alcarazprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.54
057%126%210%34%42%51%6+0% - Vitalii Mykolenkoprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.70
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.71
051%133%212%33%41%5+0% - Tyler Diblingprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 2.45
063%121%28%34%42%51%6+1% - Daichi Kamadaprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.09
056%128%211%34%41%50%6+0% - Edward Nketiahprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.67
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.71
058%127%210%34%41%51%6+0% - Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.28
058%126%210%34%41%50%6+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards37 playersHighest: James Garner, 0.22 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.22
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.23
081%117%22%3+0% - Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solísprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.30
082%116%22%3+0% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.20
083%116%22%3+0% - Daniel Muñoz Mejíaprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.20
083%115%22%3+0% - Will Hughesprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.29
084%115%22%3+0% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.20
084%115%22%3+0% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.36
085%113%22%3+0% - Jake O´Brienprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.18
085%114%2+1% - Adam Whartonprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.21
085%114%2+1% - James Tarkowskiprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.16
085%114%2+1% - Chris Richardsprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Vitalii Mykolenkoprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.15
086%113%2+1% - Chadi Riadprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.21
086%112%2+1% - Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.29
087%112%21%3+0% - Tyrick Mitchellprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%113%2+1% - Jaydee Canvotprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.20
087%112%2+1% - Carlos Alcarazprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.32
087%112%21%3+0% - Jarrad Branthwaiteprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Daichi Kamadaprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.23
087%112%2+1% - Michael Keaneprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.17
087%112%2+1%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves37 playersHighest: Dean Henderson, 3.08 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Dean Hendersonprovisional
GK · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.08
- O 2.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 3.08
06%116%221%320%415%510%6+11% - Jordan Pickfordprovisional
GK · Everton
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.62
- O 2.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.62
09%120%224%320%413%58%6+7% - Chadi Riadprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.01
0100%1+0% - Jaydee Canvotprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 67
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Chris Richardsprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jarrad Branthwaiteprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Michael Keaneprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - James Tarkowskiprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Daniel Muñoz Mejíaprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Tyrick Mitchellprovisional
DEF · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ismaïla Sarrprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jean-Philippe Matetaprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Adam Whartonprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jørgen Strand Larsenprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solísprovisional
MID · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Vitalii Mykolenkoprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Yeremi Jesús Pino Santosprovisional
FWD · Crystal Palace
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jake O´Brienprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.