PER90My betsAccount

Premier League · England

Ipswich TownvSunderland

Portman Road Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls48 playersHighest: Reinildo Isnard Mandava, 1.21 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Reinildo Isnard Mandava

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.21
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.38
    033%
    133%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Noah Sadiki

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.22
    032%
    135%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Daniel Neill

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.19
    034%
    134%
    220%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Enzo Le Fée

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.31
    036%
    133%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Granit Xhaka

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.13
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.20
    035%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Azor Matusiwa

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.12
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.17
    034%
    135%
    220%
    38%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mouhamadou Diarra

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.37
    039%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jaden Philogene-Bidace

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.74
    041%
    130%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Wilson Isidor

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.63
    043%
    129%
    216%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Brian Brobbey

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.48
    041%
    131%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Luke O'Nien

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.14
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Patrick Roberts

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.18
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.39
    045%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Chris Rigg

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.31
    045%
    131%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Anis Mehmeti

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.43
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Romaine Mundle

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.58
    047%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Alan Browne

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.52
    050%
    126%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Eliezer Mayenda Dossou

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.30
    047%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Trai Hume

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.93
    044%
    134%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Darnell Furlong

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.87
    044%
    135%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles48 playersHighest: Enzo Le Fée, 2.37 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Enzo Le Fée

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    2.37
    O 1.5
    66%
    Model /90
    2.72
    013%
    121%
    223%
    319%
    412%
    57%
    6+5%
  • Azor Matusiwa

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    2.09
    O 1.5
    62%
    Model /90
    2.19
    013%
    126%
    227%
    319%
    410%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Daniel Neill

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    2.04
    O 1.5
    60%
    Model /90
    2.12
    014%
    125%
    226%
    318%
    410%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Noah Sadiki

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    2.04
    O 1.5
    60%
    Model /90
    2.09
    013%
    127%
    227%
    318%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Granit Xhaka

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    2.00
    O 1.5
    59%
    Model /90
    2.11
    015%
    126%
    226%
    318%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Trai Hume

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.89
    O 1.5
    56%
    Model /90
    2.02
    017%
    127%
    226%
    317%
    48%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Alan Browne

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.85
    O 1.5
    48%
    Model /90
    3.15
    031%
    122%
    216%
    313%
    49%
    55%
    6+4%
  • Dennis Cirkin

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.74
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    2.07
    022%
    128%
    223%
    315%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Mouhamadou Diarra

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.74
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    2.23
    022%
    128%
    223%
    315%
    48%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Nordi Mukiele Mulere

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.71
    O 1.5
    51%
    Model /90
    1.76
    018%
    131%
    226%
    315%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Daniel Ballard

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.63
    O 1.5
    47%
    Model /90
    2.13
    026%
    128%
    222%
    314%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Jacob Greaves

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.55
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    1.60
    022%
    132%
    225%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Anis Mehmeti

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.54
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    2.42
    027%
    130%
    221%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Chris Rigg

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    1.53
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.19
    028%
    128%
    222%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Reinildo Isnard Mandava

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.51
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.73
    024%
    132%
    224%
    313%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.50
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    2.25
    029%
    129%
    221%
    312%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Daniel Neill

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    1.50
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    3.27
    037%
    123%
    215%
    311%
    47%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Luke O'Nien

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.68
    026%
    131%
    223%
    312%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.46
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.54
    024%
    134%
    224%
    312%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Darnell Furlong

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    1.44
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    1.48
    024%
    134%
    224%
    312%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots48 playersHighest: Jaden Philogene-Bidace, 1.67 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Jaden Philogene-Bidace

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.67
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.74
    030%
    126%
    218%
    312%
    47%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Sindre Walle Egeli

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.65
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.80
    030%
    126%
    218%
    312%
    47%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Patrick Roberts

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.64
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    2.05
    026%
    129%
    221%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Eliezer Mayenda Dossou

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.48
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    2.19
    033%
    127%
    218%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Wilson Isidor

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    2.31
    035%
    127%
    217%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Brian Brobbey

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.42
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    2.05
    032%
    129%
    219%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Jack Clarke

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.41
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    2.77
    036%
    128%
    216%
    39%
    45%
    53%
    6+3%
  • George Hirst

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    2.96
    039%
    127%
    215%
    39%
    45%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Chemsdine Talbi

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    2.08
    036%
    129%
    218%
    39%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Romaine Mundle

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    1.24
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    2.18
    038%
    129%
    217%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Conor Chaplin

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    1.17
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    3.00
    042%
    128%
    214%
    37%
    44%
    52%
    6+2%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.73
    039%
    130%
    217%
    38%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Simon Adingra

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    2.18
    041%
    129%
    216%
    38%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Azor Matusiwa

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.12
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.18
    035%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Chuba Akpom

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    31
    Proj.
    1.10
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    3.23
    046%
    128%
    212%
    36%
    43%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Noah Sadiki

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.02
    039%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Anis Mehmeti

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.55
    043%
    131%
    215%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Granit Xhaka

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.03
    041%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Enzo Le Fée

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.09
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mouhamadou Diarra

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.21
    044%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target45 playersHighest: Jaden Philogene-Bidace, 0.76 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Jaden Philogene-Bidace

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 0.5
    48%
    Model /90
    1.25
    052%
    129%
    212%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Eliezer Mayenda Dossou

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.68
    O 0.5
    45%
    Model /90
    1.01
    055%
    128%
    211%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Brian Brobbey

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.64
    O 0.5
    44%
    Model /90
    0.92
    056%
    129%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Wilson Isidor

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.61
    O 0.5
    41%
    Model /90
    0.96
    059%
    127%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • George Hirst

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.57
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.27
    062%
    125%
    29%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Sindre Walle Egeli

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.54
    O 0.5
    38%
    Model /90
    0.92
    062%
    126%
    29%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Chemsdine Talbi

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.52
    O 0.5
    37%
    Model /90
    0.83
    063%
    127%
    28%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Jack Clarke

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.51
    O 0.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.01
    064%
    125%
    28%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Patrick Roberts

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.45
    O 0.5
    35%
    Model /90
    0.56
    065%
    126%
    27%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Romaine Mundle

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.45
    O 0.5
    33%
    Model /90
    0.79
    067%
    125%
    27%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Simon Adingra

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    47
    Proj.
    0.45
    O 0.5
    33%
    Model /90
    0.86
    067%
    125%
    27%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Chuba Akpom

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    31
    Proj.
    0.41
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.21
    070%
    121%
    26%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Conor Chaplin

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    35
    Proj.
    0.38
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.98
    071%
    121%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Azor Matusiwa

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.33
    O 0.5
    28%
    Model /90
    0.35
    072%
    123%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Kasey McAteer

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.33
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.65
    074%
    120%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.32
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.48
    074%
    121%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Enzo Le Fée

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.35
    075%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Noah Sadiki

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.31
    075%
    121%
    24%
    3+0%
  • Mouhamadou Diarra

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.38
    075%
    120%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Anis Mehmeti

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.29
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.46
    076%
    120%
    24%
    3+1%

20 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won48 playersHighest: Noah Sadiki, 1.09 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Noah Sadiki

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.12
    036%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Azor Matusiwa

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.12
    037%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Granit Xhaka

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.12
    038%
    133%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Daniel Neill

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.08
    038%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jack Clarke

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    2.02
    045%
    128%
    214%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Enzo Le Fée

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.15
    041%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Patrick Roberts

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.23
    042%
    132%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Brian Brobbey

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.39
    044%
    131%
    215%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Jaden Philogene-Bidace

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.58
    045%
    129%
    215%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mouhamadou Diarra

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.20
    044%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Eliezer Mayenda Dossou

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.25
    049%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Anis Mehmeti

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.30
    049%
    131%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Chris Rigg

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.18
    049%
    130%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Romaine Mundle

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.45
    050%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Alan Browne

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.38
    053%
    126%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Darnell Furlong

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.77
    049%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Sindre Walle Egeli

    FWD · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.29
    053%
    129%
    212%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Leif Davis

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.80
    050%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.09
    053%
    129%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Kasey McAteer

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.40
    055%
    127%
    211%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards48 playersHighest: Reinildo Isnard Mandava, 0.28 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • Reinildo Isnard Mandava

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.32
    076%
    121%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Noah Sadiki

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.24
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.25
    079%
    119%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Luke O'Nien

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.27
    080%
    118%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Granit Xhaka

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.23
    O 0.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.24
    080%
    118%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Mouhamadou Diarra

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.27
    081%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Cedric Kipre

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.23
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Azor Matusiwa

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.21
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Enzo Le Fée

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.23
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Trai Hume

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.21
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Darnell Furlong

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.20
    083%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.19
    083%
    115%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Nordi Mukiele Mulere

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.19
    083%
    115%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Jacob Greaves

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.18
    084%
    115%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Chris Rigg

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.25
    084%
    114%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Daniel Neill

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.18
    084%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Dennis Cirkin

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.21
    084%
    114%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Anis Mehmeti

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.27
    085%
    114%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Wilson Isidor

    FWD · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.26
    085%
    113%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Leif Davis

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.17
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.24
    085%
    113%
    21%
    3+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves48 playersHighest: Robin Roefs, 3.30 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Robin Roefs

    GK · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    3.30
    O 2.5
    61%
    Model /90
    3.30
    05%
    114%
    220%
    320%
    416%
    511%
    6+14%
  • Anthony Patterson

    GK · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    91
    Proj.
    2.81
    O 2.5
    51%
    Model /90
    2.79
    08%
    118%
    223%
    320%
    414%
    59%
    6+9%
  • Christian Walton

    GK · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    2.49
    O 2.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.51
    010%
    121%
    224%
    319%
    412%
    57%
    6+6%
  • Alex Palmer

    GK · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    2.48
    O 2.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.56
    010%
    122%
    224%
    319%
    412%
    57%
    6+6%
  • Ajibola Alese

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.01
    0100%
    1+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Cedric Kipre

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Luke O'Nien

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Daniel Ballard

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Jacob Greaves

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Leo Fuhr Hjelde

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    26
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.01
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Dara O'Shea

    DEF · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Noah Sadiki

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Nordi Mukiele Mulere

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Granit Xhaka

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Trai Hume

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Daniel Neill

    MID · Ipswich Town

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Reinildo Isnard Mandava

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Enzo Le Fée

    MID · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Dennis Cirkin

    DEF · Sunderland

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.