Premier League · England
Ipswich TownvSunderland
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls48 playersHighest: Reinildo Isnard Mandava, 1.21 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Reinildo Isnard Mandavaprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.21
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.38
033%133%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Noah Sadikiprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.22
032%135%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Daniel Neillprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.19
034%134%220%38%43%51%6+0% - Enzo Le Féeprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.31
036%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Granit Xhakaprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.20
035%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Azor Matusiwaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.17
034%135%220%38%42%51%6+0% - Mouhamadou Diarraprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.37
039%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Jaden Philogene-Bidaceprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.74
041%130%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Wilson Isidorprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.63
043%129%216%38%43%51%6+0% - Brian Brobbeyprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.48
041%131%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Luke O'Nienprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.14
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Patrick Robertsprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.18
042%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Marcelino Ignacio Nuñez Espinozaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.39
045%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Chris Riggprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.31
045%131%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Anis Mehmetiprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.43
045%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Romaine Mundleprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.58
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Alan Browneprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.52
050%126%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Eliezer Mayenda Dossouprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.30
047%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Trai Humeprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.93
044%134%215%35%41%5+0% - Darnell Furlongprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.87
044%135%215%35%41%5+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles48 playersHighest: Enzo Le Fée, 2.37 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Enzo Le Féeprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 2.37
- O 1.5
- 66%
- Model /90
- 2.72
013%121%223%319%412%57%6+5% - Azor Matusiwaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 2.09
- O 1.5
- 62%
- Model /90
- 2.19
013%126%227%319%410%54%6+2% - Daniel Neillprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 2.04
- O 1.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 2.12
014%125%226%318%410%54%6+2% - Noah Sadikiprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 2.04
- O 1.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 2.09
013%127%227%318%49%54%6+2% - Granit Xhakaprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 2.00
- O 1.5
- 59%
- Model /90
- 2.11
015%126%226%318%49%54%6+2% - Trai Humeprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.89
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 2.02
017%127%226%317%48%53%6+2% - Alan Browneprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.85
- O 1.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 3.15
031%122%216%313%49%55%6+4% - Dennis Cirkinprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.74
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.07
022%128%223%315%47%53%6+1% - Mouhamadou Diarraprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.74
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.23
022%128%223%315%48%53%6+2% - Nordi Mukiele Mulereprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.71
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 1.76
018%131%226%315%46%52%6+1% - Daniel Ballardprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.63
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.13
026%128%222%314%47%53%6+1% - Jacob Greavesprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.55
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.60
022%132%225%313%45%52%6+1% - Anis Mehmetiprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.54
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.42
027%130%221%312%46%53%6+1% - Chris Riggprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.53
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.19
028%128%222%313%46%52%6+1% - Reinildo Isnard Mandavaprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.73
024%132%224%313%45%52%6+1% - Marcelino Ignacio Nuñez Espinozaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.50
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.25
029%129%221%312%46%52%6+1% - Daniel Neillprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.50
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 3.27
037%123%215%311%47%54%6+3% - Luke O'Nienprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.68
026%131%223%312%45%52%6+1% - Omar Federico Alderete Fernándezprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.46
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.54
024%134%224%312%44%51%6+0% - Darnell Furlongprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.44
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.48
024%134%224%312%44%51%6+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots48 playersHighest: Jaden Philogene-Bidace, 1.67 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Jaden Philogene-Bidaceprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.67
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.74
030%126%218%312%47%54%6+3% - Sindre Walle Egeliprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.65
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.80
030%126%218%312%47%54%6+3% - Patrick Robertsprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.64
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.05
026%129%221%313%47%53%6+2% - Eliezer Mayenda Dossouprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.48
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 2.19
033%127%218%311%46%53%6+2% - Wilson Isidorprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 2.31
035%127%217%311%46%53%6+2% - Brian Brobbeyprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 2.05
032%129%219%311%45%52%6+2% - Jack Clarkeprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.41
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 2.77
036%128%216%39%45%53%6+3% - George Hirstprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 2.96
039%127%215%39%45%53%6+2% - Chemsdine Talbiprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.08
036%129%218%39%45%52%6+1% - Romaine Mundleprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.18
038%129%217%39%44%52%6+1% - Conor Chaplinprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 3.00
042%128%214%37%44%52%6+2% - Marcelino Ignacio Nuñez Espinozaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.73
039%130%217%38%44%51%6+1% - Simon Adingraprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 2.18
041%129%216%38%44%51%6+1% - Azor Matusiwaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.18
035%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Chuba Akpomprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 3.23
046%128%212%36%43%52%6+2% - Noah Sadikiprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.02
039%134%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Anis Mehmetiprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.55
043%131%215%37%42%51%6+0% - Granit Xhakaprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.03
041%134%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Enzo Le Féeprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.09
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Mouhamadou Diarraprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.21
044%132%216%36%42%51%6+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target45 playersHighest: Jaden Philogene-Bidace, 0.76 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Jaden Philogene-Bidaceprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 0.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 1.25
052%129%212%35%41%50%6+0% - Eliezer Mayenda Dossouprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.01
055%128%211%34%41%5+0% - Brian Brobbeyprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.64
- O 0.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 0.92
056%129%211%33%41%5+0% - Wilson Isidorprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.61
- O 0.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 0.96
059%127%210%33%41%5+0% - George Hirstprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.57
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.27
062%125%29%33%41%5+0% - Sindre Walle Egeliprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.92
062%126%29%32%41%5+0% - Chemsdine Talbiprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.52
- O 0.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 0.83
063%127%28%32%40%5+0% - Jack Clarkeprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.51
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.01
064%125%28%32%41%5+0% - Patrick Robertsprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.45
- O 0.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 0.56
065%126%27%31%4+0% - Romaine Mundleprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.45
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.79
067%125%27%32%4+0% - Simon Adingraprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.45
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.86
067%125%27%32%4+0% - Chuba Akpomprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.21
070%121%26%32%41%5+0% - Conor Chaplinprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.38
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.98
071%121%25%31%4+0% - Azor Matusiwaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.33
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.35
072%123%24%3+1% - Kasey McAteerprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.33
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.65
074%120%25%31%4+0% - Marcelino Ignacio Nuñez Espinozaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.48
074%121%24%31%4+0% - Enzo Le Féeprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.35
075%121%24%3+1% - Noah Sadikiprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.31
075%121%24%3+0% - Mouhamadou Diarraprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.38
075%120%24%3+1% - Anis Mehmetiprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.46
076%120%24%3+1%
20 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won48 playersHighest: Noah Sadiki, 1.09 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Noah Sadikiprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.12
036%134%218%37%43%51%6+0% - Azor Matusiwaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.12
037%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Granit Xhakaprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.12
038%133%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Daniel Neillprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.08
038%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Jack Clarkeprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 2.02
045%128%214%37%43%51%6+1% - Enzo Le Féeprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.15
041%132%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Patrick Robertsprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.23
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Brian Brobbeyprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.39
044%131%215%37%42%51%6+0% - Jaden Philogene-Bidaceprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.58
045%129%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Mouhamadou Diarraprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.20
044%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Eliezer Mayenda Dossouprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.25
049%129%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Anis Mehmetiprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.30
049%131%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Chris Riggprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.18
049%130%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Romaine Mundleprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.45
050%129%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Alan Browneprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.38
053%126%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Darnell Furlongprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.77
049%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Sindre Walle Egeliprovisional
FWD · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.29
053%129%212%35%41%50%6+0% - Leif Davisprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.80
050%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Marcelino Ignacio Nuñez Espinozaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.09
053%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Kasey McAteerprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.40
055%127%211%34%41%50%6+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards48 playersHighest: Reinildo Isnard Mandava, 0.28 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Reinildo Isnard Mandavaprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.32
076%121%23%3+0% - Noah Sadikiprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.24
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.25
079%119%22%3+0% - Luke O'Nienprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.27
080%118%22%3+0% - Granit Xhakaprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.24
080%118%22%3+0% - Mouhamadou Diarraprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.27
081%116%22%3+0% - Cedric Kipreprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.23
082%116%22%3+0% - Azor Matusiwaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.21
082%116%22%3+0% - Enzo Le Féeprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.23
082%116%22%3+0% - Trai Humeprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.21
082%116%22%3+0% - Darnell Furlongprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.20
083%116%22%3+0% - Omar Federico Alderete Fernándezprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.19
083%115%21%3+0% - Nordi Mukiele Mulereprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.19
083%115%21%3+0% - Jacob Greavesprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.18
084%115%21%3+0% - Chris Riggprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.25
084%114%22%3+0% - Daniel Neillprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.18
084%114%2+1% - Dennis Cirkinprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.21
084%114%21%3+0% - Anis Mehmetiprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.27
085%114%21%3+0% - Wilson Isidorprovisional
FWD · Sunderland
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.26
085%113%22%3+0% - Leif Davisprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.17
085%114%2+1% - Marcelino Ignacio Nuñez Espinozaprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.24
085%113%21%3+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves48 playersHighest: Robin Roefs, 3.30 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Robin Roefsprovisional
GK · Sunderland
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.30
- O 2.5
- 61%
- Model /90
- 3.30
05%114%220%320%416%511%6+14% - Anthony Pattersonprovisional
GK · Sunderland
- Mins
- 91
- Proj.
- 2.81
- O 2.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 2.79
08%118%223%320%414%59%6+9% - Christian Waltonprovisional
GK · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 2.49
- O 2.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.51
010%121%224%319%412%57%6+6% - Alex Palmerprovisional
GK · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 2.48
- O 2.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.56
010%122%224%319%412%57%6+6% - Ajibola Aleseprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.01
0100%1+0% - Omar Federico Alderete Fernándezprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Cedric Kipreprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Luke O'Nienprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Daniel Ballardprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jacob Greavesprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Leo Fuhr Hjeldeprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 26
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.01
0100%1+0% - Dara O'Sheaprovisional
DEF · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Noah Sadikiprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Nordi Mukiele Mulereprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Granit Xhakaprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Trai Humeprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Daniel Neillprovisional
MID · Ipswich Town
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Reinildo Isnard Mandavaprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Enzo Le Féeprovisional
MID · Sunderland
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Dennis Cirkinprovisional
DEF · Sunderland
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.