PER90My betsAccount

Premier League · England

BrentfordvTottenham Hotspur

Gtech Community Stadiumlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues, 1.09 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.30
    039%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Conor Gallagher

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.29
    037%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Dejan Kulusevski

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.29
    038%
    133%
    218%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mohammed Kudus

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.05
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.16
    037%
    135%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Kevin Schade

    FWD · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.29
    041%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Pape Matar Sarr

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.68
    043%
    130%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.22
    042%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Dominic Solanke

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.14
    041%
    133%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Lucas Bergvall

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    44
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.92
    047%
    129%
    214%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.22
    043%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Vitaly Janelt

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.24
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Yehor Yarmoliuk

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.30
    047%
    130%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Archie Gray

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.26
    048%
    128%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • James Maddison

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.86
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.42
    048%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mikkel Damsgaard

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.08
    046%
    132%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Xavi Simons

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.21
    047%
    132%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Yves Bissouma

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.28
    047%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Keane Lewis-Potter

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.08
    048%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mathys Tel

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.42
    052%
    128%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Iyenoma Destiny Udogie

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.98
    048%
    133%
    214%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles42 playersHighest: Mikkel Damsgaard, 2.00 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Mikkel Damsgaard

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    2.00
    O 1.5
    57%
    Model /90
    2.56
    019%
    125%
    223%
    317%
    410%
    55%
    6+3%
  • Conor Gallagher

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.85
    O 1.5
    54%
    Model /90
    2.23
    018%
    128%
    225%
    316%
    48%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Yehor Yarmoliuk

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.83
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    2.72
    025%
    125%
    220%
    314%
    49%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Dejan Kulusevski

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    1.82
    O 1.5
    53%
    Model /90
    2.19
    020%
    127%
    224%
    316%
    48%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.82
    O 1.5
    53%
    Model /90
    2.40
    021%
    126%
    224%
    316%
    48%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Vitaly Janelt

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.78
    O 1.5
    51%
    Model /90
    2.47
    023%
    126%
    222%
    315%
    48%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Djed Spence

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.76
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    2.27
    024%
    126%
    222%
    315%
    48%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Michael Olabode Kayode

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.75
    O 1.5
    51%
    Model /90
    2.03
    022%
    126%
    224%
    315%
    48%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Yves Bissouma

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    1.74
    O 1.5
    49%
    Model /90
    2.67
    024%
    127%
    222%
    314%
    48%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Cristian Gabriel Romero

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    1.70
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    1.90
    019%
    131%
    226%
    315%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ethan Pinnock

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.69
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    1.77
    019%
    131%
    226%
    315%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Iyenoma Destiny Udogie

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    1.62
    O 1.5
    47%
    Model /90
    2.01
    023%
    130%
    224%
    314%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Xavi Simons

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    1.60
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    2.29
    025%
    130%
    222%
    313%
    46%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Pedro Antonio Porro Sauceda

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.58
    O 1.5
    46%
    Model /90
    1.76
    023%
    131%
    224%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Keane Lewis-Potter

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.56
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.05
    028%
    127%
    222%
    313%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • James Maddison

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    1.48
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.45
    030%
    128%
    220%
    312%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Sepp van den Berg

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.46
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    1.55
    025%
    133%
    224%
    312%
    45%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Pape Matar Sarr

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.44
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    2.43
    031%
    129%
    219%
    311%
    46%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Mathias Jensen

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    1.43
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    2.47
    035%
    126%
    218%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Lucas Bergvall

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    44
    Proj.
    1.42
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    2.93
    034%
    128%
    217%
    310%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots42 playersHighest: Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues, 2.07 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    2.07
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.48
    022%
    123%
    220%
    315%
    49%
    55%
    6+5%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    2.00
    O 1.5
    53%
    Model /90
    2.52
    022%
    125%
    221%
    314%
    49%
    55%
    6+4%
  • Mohammed Kudus

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.92
    O 1.5
    54%
    Model /90
    2.13
    018%
    128%
    224%
    315%
    48%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Kevin Schade

    FWD · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.91
    O 1.5
    52%
    Model /90
    2.48
    022%
    126%
    221%
    314%
    48%
    54%
    6+4%
  • Dominic Solanke

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.83
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    2.16
    023%
    127%
    222%
    314%
    48%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Mathys Tel

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    2.58
    036%
    126%
    216%
    310%
    46%
    53%
    6+3%
  • Richarlison de Andrade

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.43
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    2.45
    035%
    128%
    217%
    310%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Wilson Odobert

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.18
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    2.32
    040%
    129%
    216%
    38%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Yehor Yarmoliuk

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.60
    042%
    129%
    216%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Mikkel Damsgaard

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.34
    040%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Dejan Kulusevski

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.24
    040%
    132%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Keane Lewis-Potter

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.35
    042%
    130%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mikey Moore

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    2.52
    043%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Conor Gallagher

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.18
    041%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Xavi Simons

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.36
    043%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Vitaly Janelt

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.28
    045%
    131%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.21
    044%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Yves Bissouma

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.31
    048%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • James Maddison

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.40
    049%
    129%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mathias Jensen

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    52
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.46
    051%
    127%
    213%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target39 playersHighest: Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues, 0.97 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 0.5
    57%
    Model /90
    1.16
    043%
    131%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Kevin Schade

    FWD · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.84
    O 0.5
    53%
    Model /90
    1.09
    047%
    132%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Dominic Solanke

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 0.5
    52%
    Model /90
    0.95
    048%
    132%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.75
    O 0.5
    49%
    Model /90
    0.95
    051%
    131%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mohammed Kudus

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 0.5
    50%
    Model /90
    0.81
    050%
    133%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Richarlison de Andrade

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.59
    O 0.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.01
    060%
    127%
    29%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mathys Tel

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.49
    O 0.5
    35%
    Model /90
    0.87
    065%
    124%
    28%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Wilson Odobert

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    0.44
    O 0.5
    33%
    Model /90
    0.87
    067%
    124%
    27%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Mikey Moore

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    36
    Proj.
    0.40
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.00
    069%
    124%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Keane Lewis-Potter

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.37
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.49
    071%
    123%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Dejan Kulusevski

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.36
    O 0.5
    29%
    Model /90
    0.44
    071%
    124%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Conor Gallagher

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.32
    O 0.5
    27%
    Model /90
    0.39
    073%
    122%
    24%
    3+1%
  • James Maddison

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.52
    075%
    120%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Yehor Yarmoliuk

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.46
    075%
    120%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Mikkel Damsgaard

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.31
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.39
    075%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Yves Bissouma

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    24%
    Model /90
    0.44
    076%
    120%
    23%
    3+1%
  • Pape Matar Sarr

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.47
    077%
    119%
    23%
    3+1%
  • Vitaly Janelt

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.38
    077%
    119%
    23%
    3+1%
  • Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.27
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.35
    077%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%
  • Xavi Simons

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.26
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.38
    078%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%

20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won42 playersHighest: Dango Aboubacar Faissal Ouattara, 1.15 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.45
    038%
    131%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Kevin Schade

    FWD · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.40
    039%
    132%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.22
    042%
    131%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mohammed Kudus

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.12
    039%
    134%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Keane Lewis-Potter

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.32
    043%
    130%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Dominic Solanke

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.15
    042%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Dejan Kulusevski

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.16
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Xavi Simons

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.34
    044%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Conor Gallagher

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.10
    044%
    133%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • James Maddison

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.88
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.45
    048%
    129%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Mikkel Damsgaard

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.11
    046%
    131%
    215%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Kevin Danso

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.09
    049%
    129%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Richarlison de Andrade

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.81
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.39
    051%
    128%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Vitaly Janelt

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.76
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    1.05
    051%
    130%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Lucas Bergvall

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    44
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 1.5
    18%
    Model /90
    1.52
    055%
    127%
    211%
    34%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Yves Bissouma

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.11
    053%
    130%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Michael Olabode Kayode

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.82
    053%
    130%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Iyenoma Destiny Udogie

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.70
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.86
    053%
    131%
    212%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Mathys Tel

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.68
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    1.20
    057%
    126%
    211%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Pape Matar Sarr

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.66
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    1.12
    056%
    128%
    211%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards42 playersHighest: Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán, 0.20 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.26
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Cristian Gabriel Romero

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.21
    083%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Conor Gallagher

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.22
    084%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Mickey van de Ven

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.19
    084%
    115%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Vitaly Janelt

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.25
    084%
    114%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Yehor Yarmoliuk

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.26
    085%
    114%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Pape Matar Sarr

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.29
    085%
    114%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Ethan Pinnock

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.18
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • James Maddison

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    55
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.28
    085%
    113%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Dejan Kulusevski

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.20
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Michael Olabode Kayode

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.19
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Nathan Michael Collins

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.17
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Xavi Simons

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.24
    085%
    114%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Pedro Antonio Porro Sauceda

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.18
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Iyenoma Destiny Udogie

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.20
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Archie Gray

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.24
    085%
    113%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Kristoffer Vassbakk Ajer

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.23
    086%
    113%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Keane Lewis-Potter

    MID · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.21
    085%
    113%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Ben Davies

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.20
    085%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Yves Bissouma

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.24
    086%
    113%
    2+1%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves42 playersHighest: Antonín Kinský, 3.14 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

  • Antonín Kinský

    GK · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    3.14
    O 2.5
    58%
    Model /90
    3.14
    06%
    115%
    221%
    320%
    416%
    510%
    6+12%
  • Guglielmo Vicario

    GK · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    3.10
    O 2.5
    57%
    Model /90
    3.10
    06%
    116%
    221%
    320%
    415%
    510%
    6+12%
  • Caoimhin Kelleher

    GK · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    2.61
    O 2.5
    47%
    Model /90
    2.61
    09%
    120%
    224%
    320%
    413%
    58%
    6+7%
  • Ben Davies

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Cristian Gabriel Romero

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    80
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Ethan Pinnock

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Kevin Danso

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Mickey van de Ven

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Sepp van den Berg

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Kristoffer Vassbakk Ajer

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    64
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Nathan Michael Collins

    DEF · Brentford

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Pedro Antonio Porro Sauceda

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Mohammed Kudus

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Dominic Solanke

    FWD · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Dejan Kulusevski

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    75
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Conor Gallagher

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Iyenoma Destiny Udogie

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    73
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Djed Spence

    DEF · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Xavi Simons

    MID · Tottenham Hotspur

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 2.5
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.