Premier League · England
BrentfordvTottenham Hotspur
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls42 playersHighest: Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues, 1.09 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodriguesprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.30
039%132%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Conor Gallagherprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.29
037%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Dejan Kulusevskiprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.29
038%133%218%37%43%51%6+0% - Mohammed Kudusprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.16
037%135%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Kevin Schadeprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.29
041%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Pape Matar Sarrprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.68
043%130%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Dango Aboubacar Faissal Ouattaraprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.22
042%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Dominic Solankeprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.14
041%133%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Lucas Bergvallprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.92
047%129%214%36%43%51%6+0% - Rodrigo Bentancur Colmánprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.22
043%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Vitaly Janeltprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.24
045%132%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Yehor Yarmoliukprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.30
047%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Archie Grayprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.26
048%128%215%36%42%51%6+0% - James Maddisonprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.42
048%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Mikkel Damsgaardprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.08
046%132%215%35%41%5+0% - Xavi Simonsprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.21
047%132%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Yves Bissoumaprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.28
047%131%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Keane Lewis-Potterprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.08
048%131%214%35%41%5+0% - Mathys Telprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.42
052%128%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Iyenoma Destiny Udogieprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.98
048%133%214%34%41%5+0%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles42 playersHighest: Mikkel Damsgaard, 2.00 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Mikkel Damsgaardprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 2.00
- O 1.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 2.56
019%125%223%317%410%55%6+3% - Conor Gallagherprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.85
- O 1.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 2.23
018%128%225%316%48%53%6+2% - Yehor Yarmoliukprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.83
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.72
025%125%220%314%49%54%6+3% - Dejan Kulusevskiprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.82
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.19
020%127%224%316%48%53%6+2% - Rodrigo Bentancur Colmánprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.82
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.40
021%126%224%316%48%53%6+2% - Vitaly Janeltprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.78
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 2.47
023%126%222%315%48%54%6+2% - Djed Spenceprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.76
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.27
024%126%222%315%48%54%6+2% - Michael Olabode Kayodeprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.75
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 2.03
022%126%224%315%48%53%6+1% - Yves Bissoumaprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 1.74
- O 1.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 2.67
024%127%222%314%48%53%6+2% - Cristian Gabriel Romeroprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.70
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 1.90
019%131%226%315%46%52%6+1% - Ethan Pinnockprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.69
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 1.77
019%131%226%315%46%52%6+1% - Iyenoma Destiny Udogieprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.62
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.01
023%130%224%314%46%52%6+1% - Xavi Simonsprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.60
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.29
025%130%222%313%46%53%6+1% - Pedro Antonio Porro Saucedaprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.58
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.76
023%131%224%313%46%52%6+1% - Keane Lewis-Potterprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.56
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.05
028%127%222%313%46%52%6+1% - James Maddisonprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 1.48
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.45
030%128%220%312%46%52%6+1% - Sepp van den Bergprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.46
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.55
025%133%224%312%45%51%6+1% - Pape Matar Sarrprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.44
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 2.43
031%129%219%311%46%52%6+1% - Mathias Jensenprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 1.43
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 2.47
035%126%218%311%46%53%6+1% - Lucas Bergvallprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 2.93
034%128%217%310%46%53%6+2%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots42 playersHighest: Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues, 2.07 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodriguesprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 2.07
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.48
022%123%220%315%49%55%6+5% - Dango Aboubacar Faissal Ouattaraprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 2.00
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.52
022%125%221%314%49%55%6+4% - Mohammed Kudusprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.92
- O 1.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 2.13
018%128%224%315%48%54%6+3% - Kevin Schadeprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.91
- O 1.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 2.48
022%126%221%314%48%54%6+4% - Dominic Solankeprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.83
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.16
023%127%222%314%48%54%6+3% - Mathys Telprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 2.58
036%126%216%310%46%53%6+3% - Richarlison de Andradeprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 1.43
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 2.45
035%128%217%310%46%53%6+2% - Wilson Odobertprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.18
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 2.32
040%129%216%38%44%52%6+1% - Yehor Yarmoliukprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.60
042%129%216%38%43%51%6+1% - Mikkel Damsgaardprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.34
040%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Dejan Kulusevskiprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.24
040%132%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Keane Lewis-Potterprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.35
042%130%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Mikey Mooreprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 2.52
043%131%215%36%43%51%6+1% - Conor Gallagherprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.18
041%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Xavi Simonsprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.36
043%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Vitaly Janeltprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.28
045%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Rodrigo Bentancur Colmánprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.21
044%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Yves Bissoumaprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.31
048%131%214%35%42%50%6+0% - James Maddisonprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.40
049%129%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Mathias Jensenprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.46
051%127%213%36%42%51%6+0%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target39 playersHighest: Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues, 0.97 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodriguesprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 0.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 1.16
043%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Kevin Schadeprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 0.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 1.09
047%132%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Dominic Solankeprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 0.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 0.95
048%132%214%35%41%5+0% - Dango Aboubacar Faissal Ouattaraprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 0.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 0.95
051%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Mohammed Kudusprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 0.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 0.81
050%133%212%34%41%5+0% - Richarlison de Andradeprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.59
- O 0.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.01
060%127%29%33%41%5+0% - Mathys Telprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.49
- O 0.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 0.87
065%124%28%32%41%5+0% - Wilson Odobertprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.44
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.87
067%124%27%32%4+0% - Mikey Mooreprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.40
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.00
069%124%26%31%4+0% - Keane Lewis-Potterprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.49
071%123%25%31%4+0% - Dejan Kulusevskiprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.44
071%124%25%31%4+0% - Conor Gallagherprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.39
073%122%24%3+1% - James Maddisonprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.52
075%120%24%31%4+0% - Yehor Yarmoliukprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.46
075%120%24%31%4+0% - Mikkel Damsgaardprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.39
075%121%24%3+1% - Yves Bissoumaprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.44
076%120%23%3+1% - Pape Matar Sarrprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.47
077%119%23%3+1% - Vitaly Janeltprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.38
077%119%23%3+1% - Rodrigo Bentancur Colmánprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.27
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.35
077%119%23%3+0% - Xavi Simonsprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.26
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.38
078%119%23%3+0%
20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won42 playersHighest: Dango Aboubacar Faissal Ouattara, 1.15 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Dango Aboubacar Faissal Ouattaraprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.45
038%131%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Kevin Schadeprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.40
039%132%217%38%43%51%6+0% - Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodriguesprovisional
FWD · Brentford
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.22
042%131%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Mohammed Kudusprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.12
039%134%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Keane Lewis-Potterprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.32
043%130%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Dominic Solankeprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.15
042%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Dejan Kulusevskiprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.16
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Xavi Simonsprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.34
044%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Conor Gallagherprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.10
044%133%215%36%42%50%6+0% - James Maddisonprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.45
048%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Mikkel Damsgaardprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.11
046%131%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Kevin Dansoprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.09
049%129%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Richarlison de Andradeprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.39
051%128%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Vitaly Janeltprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.05
051%130%213%34%41%50%6+0% - Lucas Bergvallprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.52
055%127%211%34%42%51%6+0% - Yves Bissoumaprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.11
053%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Michael Olabode Kayodeprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.82
053%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Iyenoma Destiny Udogieprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.70
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.86
053%131%212%33%41%5+0% - Mathys Telprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.20
057%126%211%34%41%50%6+0% - Pape Matar Sarrprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.12
056%128%211%34%41%5+0%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards42 playersHighest: Rodrigo Bentancur Colmán, 0.20 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Rodrigo Bentancur Colmánprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.26
082%116%22%3+0% - Cristian Gabriel Romeroprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.21
083%115%22%3+0% - Conor Gallagherprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.22
084%115%22%3+0% - Mickey van de Venprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.19
084%115%21%3+0% - Vitaly Janeltprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.25
084%114%22%3+0% - Yehor Yarmoliukprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.26
085%114%22%3+0% - Pape Matar Sarrprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 53
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.29
085%114%22%3+0% - Ethan Pinnockprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.18
085%114%2+1% - James Maddisonprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 55
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.28
085%113%21%3+0% - Dejan Kulusevskiprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.20
085%114%2+1% - Michael Olabode Kayodeprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%114%2+1% - Nathan Michael Collinsprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.17
085%114%2+1% - Xavi Simonsprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.24
085%114%21%3+0% - Pedro Antonio Porro Saucedaprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.18
085%114%2+1% - Iyenoma Destiny Udogieprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.20
085%114%2+1% - Archie Grayprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.24
085%113%21%3+0% - Kristoffer Vassbakk Ajerprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.23
086%113%21%3+0% - Keane Lewis-Potterprovisional
MID · Brentford
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.21
085%113%21%3+0% - Ben Daviesprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.20
085%113%2+1% - Yves Bissoumaprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.24
086%113%2+1%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves42 playersHighest: Antonín Kinský, 3.14 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Antonín Kinskýprovisional
GK · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.14
- O 2.5
- 58%
- Model /90
- 3.14
06%115%221%320%416%510%6+12% - Guglielmo Vicarioprovisional
GK · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.10
- O 2.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 3.10
06%116%221%320%415%510%6+12% - Caoimhin Kelleherprovisional
GK · Brentford
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.61
- O 2.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.61
09%120%224%320%413%58%6+7% - Ben Daviesprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Cristian Gabriel Romeroprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ethan Pinnockprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Kevin Dansoprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Mickey van de Venprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sepp van den Bergprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Kristoffer Vassbakk Ajerprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Nathan Michael Collinsprovisional
DEF · Brentford
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Pedro Antonio Porro Saucedaprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Mohammed Kudusprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Dominic Solankeprovisional
FWD · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Dejan Kulusevskiprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Conor Gallagherprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Iyenoma Destiny Udogieprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Djed Spenceprovisional
DEF · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Rodrigo Bentancur Colmánprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Xavi Simonsprovisional
MID · Tottenham Hotspur
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.