Premier League · England
AFC BournemouthvEverton
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls38 playersHighest: Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncal, 1.32 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.57
038%127%216%39%45%52%6+2% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.24
036%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.16
035%135%219%38%42%51%6+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.08
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.14
036%134%219%37%42%51%6+0% - Tyler Adamsprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.30
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Marcus Tavernierprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.20
041%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Rayan Rochaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.18
041%133%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.09
040%135%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Justin Kluivertprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.42
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Lewis Cookprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.18
044%131%216%36%42%51%6+0% - A. Scottprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.33
043%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.10
041%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Thiemo Barryprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.65
047%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Ryan Christieprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.41
046%131%215%36%42%50%6+0% - James Hillprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.20
047%131%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.78
053%124%212%36%43%51%6+0% - Harrison Armstrongprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 2.03
054%125%211%35%42%51%6+0% - Eli Junior Kroupiprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.40
051%129%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Merlin Röhlprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.64
054%127%211%35%42%51%6+0% - Adrien Truffertprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.79
047%134%214%34%41%5+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles38 playersHighest: James Garner, 2.29 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 2.29
- O 1.5
- 65%
- Model /90
- 2.43
012%123%225%319%412%56%6+4% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 2.22
- O 1.5
- 63%
- Model /90
- 2.45
014%123%224%319%411%55%6+3% - Tyler Adamsprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 2.12
- O 1.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 2.71
016%124%223%317%410%55%6+3% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 2.07
- O 1.5
- 61%
- Model /90
- 2.19
013%126%226%318%410%54%6+2% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 2.06
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 4.24
032%121%212%310%49%57%6+9% - Merlin Röhlprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.96
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 4.12
028%126%216%310%48%56%6+7% - Lewis Cookprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.91
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.40
022%125%222%316%49%54%6+3% - Adrien Truffertprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.87
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 1.89
016%129%227%317%48%53%6+1% - Marcus Tavernierprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.72
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.08
022%128%223%315%47%53%6+1% - James Hillprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.72
- O 1.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 2.36
026%126%221%314%48%53%6+2% - A. Scottprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.70
- O 1.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 2.42
023%128%223%314%47%53%6+1% - Ryan Christieprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.63
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.59
026%128%221%313%47%53%6+2% - Vitalii Mykolenkoprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.58
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.60
021%132%225%313%45%52%6+1% - James Tarkowskiprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.57
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.58
021%133%225%313%45%52%6+1% - Jake O´Brienprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.50
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.64
024%132%224%313%45%52%6+1% - Michael Keaneprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.39
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.62
030%130%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Jarrad Branthwaiteprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.56
029%131%222%311%44%51%6+0% - Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.52
027%134%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Carlos Alcarazprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.92
038%128%215%39%45%53%6+2% - Bafodé Diakitéprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.70
032%128%221%311%45%51%6+1%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots38 playersHighest: Rayan Rocha, 2.16 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Rayan Rochaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 2.16
- O 1.5
- 58%
- Model /90
- 2.61
018%124%222%316%410%56%6+5% - Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 2.15
- O 1.5
- 58%
- Model /90
- 2.54
017%125%223%316%410%55%6+5% - Eli Junior Kroupiprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.65
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.92
031%125%218%312%47%54%6+3% - Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.58
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.77
025%130%222%313%46%52%6+1% - Marcus Tavernierprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.38
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.67
031%130%220%311%45%52%6+1% - David Brooksprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 3.22
039%128%215%38%45%52%6+2% - Amine Adliprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 3.30
041%128%214%38%44%53%6+3% - A. Scottprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.80
034%131%219%39%44%52%6+1% - Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 2.46
040%127%215%39%45%52%6+2% - Thiemo Barryprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 2.08
041%128%216%38%44%52%6+1% - Justin Kluivertprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.67
037%132%218%38%43%51%6+1% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.13
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.07
039%134%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Ryan Christieprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.56
043%131%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Tyler Adamsprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.25
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Lewis Cookprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.21
044%130%216%37%42%51%6+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.00
042%134%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Carlos Alcarazprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.62
056%126%211%35%42%51%6+0% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.39
060%123%210%34%42%51%6+0% - Enes Ünalprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 14
- Proj.
- 0.67
- O 1.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 4.44
057%129%29%33%41%51%6+1%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target36 playersHighest: Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa, 0.85 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 0.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 1.00
046%133%214%35%41%5+0% - Rayan Rochaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 0.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 0.92
050%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 0.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 0.83
050%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Eli Junior Kroupiprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.70
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.24
055%128%211%34%41%50%6+0% - Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.54
- O 0.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.04
063%125%28%33%41%5+0% - Amine Adliprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 35
- Proj.
- 0.53
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.37
064%124%28%33%41%5+0% - David Brooksprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.47
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.17
067%124%27%32%41%5+0% - Thiemo Barryprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.45
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.80
067%124%27%32%4+0% - Marcus Tavernierprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.44
- O 0.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 0.54
066%126%27%31%4+0% - Justin Kluivertprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 0.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 0.64
066%126%26%31%4+0% - A. Scottprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.42
- O 0.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 0.60
067%125%26%31%4+0% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.37
071%124%25%3+1% - Tyler Adamsprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.34
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.44
072%123%25%31%4+0% - Ryan Christieprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.33
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.52
073%122%24%31%4+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.32
075%121%24%3+1% - Lewis Cookprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.36
076%120%23%3+1% - Carlos Alcarazprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.54
080%117%23%3+1% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.24
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.27
079%118%23%3+0% - Tyler Diblingprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.24
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.86
081%114%23%31%4+0% - Enes Ünalprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 14
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.54
081%116%22%30%4+0%
20 of 36 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won38 playersHighest: Iliman Ndiaye, 1.23 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.38
033%133%220%39%44%51%6+1% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.24
034%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.38
035%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.13
038%133%218%37%43%51%6+0% - Adam Smithprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.67
043%129%216%38%43%51%6+1% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.16
039%133%218%37%43%51%6+0% - A. Scottprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.49
040%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Rayan Rochaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.26
040%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Marcus Tavernierprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.25
041%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.97
051%124%212%37%43%51%6+1% - Tyler Adamsprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.08
047%132%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Ryan Christieprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.35
048%130%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Justin Kluivertprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.19
048%132%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Harrison Armstrongprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 2.02
055%125%211%35%42%51%6+1% - Lewis Cookprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.92
052%130%212%34%41%5+0% - James Tarkowskiprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.74
050%133%212%34%41%5+0% - Carlos Alcarazprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.59
056%126%211%34%42%51%6+0% - Vitalii Mykolenkoprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.73
050%133%212%33%41%5+0% - Eli Junior Kroupiprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.25
055%128%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Tyler Diblingprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.70
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 2.52
062%121%28%34%42%51%6+1%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards38 playersHighest: James Garner, 0.23 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.24
080%118%22%3+0% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.21
082%116%22%3+0% - James Hillprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.28
082%116%22%3+0% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.21
083%115%22%3+0% - Tyler Adamsprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.24
083%115%22%3+0% - Tim Iroegbunamprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 44
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.38
084%113%22%3+0% - Justin Kluivertprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.27
084%115%22%3+0% - Marcus Tavernierprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.22
084%114%22%3+0% - Lewis Cookprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.22
084%114%22%3+0% - Jake O´Brienprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.19
084%115%21%3+0% - James Tarkowskiprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.17
084%114%2+1% - Ryan Christieprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.27
085%114%21%3+0% - Adrien Truffertprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.16
085%114%2+1% - Vitalii Mykolenkoprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.16
085%114%2+1% - A. Scottprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.22
086%113%2+1% - Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.31
086%112%21%3+0% - Carlos Alcarazprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.34
086%112%21%3+0% - Jarrad Branthwaiteprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.17
086%113%2+1% - Michael Keaneprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.18
086%113%2+1% - Harrison Armstrongprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 36
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.37
087%111%21%3+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves38 playersHighest: Jordan Pickford, 3.29 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Jordan Pickfordprovisional
GK · Everton
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.29
- O 2.5
- 61%
- Model /90
- 3.29
05%114%220%320%416%511%6+14% - Đorđe Petrovićprovisional
GK · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.56
- O 2.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.56
010%121%224%320%413%57%6+6% - James Hillprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 2.5
- 0%
- Model /90
- 0.26
083%115%22%3+0% - Jarrad Branthwaiteprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Bafodé Diakitéprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Michael Keaneprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - James Tarkowskiprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Vitalii Mykolenkoprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hallprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - James Garnerprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Idrissa Gana Gueyeprovisional
MID · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jake O´Brienprovisional
DEF · Everton
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Iliman Ndiayeprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Adrien Truffertprovisional
DEF · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Thiemo Barryprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Marcus Tavernierprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Rayan Rochaprovisional
FWD · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lewis Cookprovisional
MID · AFC Bournemouth
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Norberto Bercique Gomes Betuncalprovisional
FWD · Everton
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.