Bundesliga · Germany
FC Bayern MünchenvVfB Stuttgart
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls43 playersHighest: Luis Fernando Díaz Marulanda, 1.08 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Luis Fernando Díaz Marulandaprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.08
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.25
037%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Deniz Undavprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.22
041%133%217%36%42%51%6+0% - Leon Goretzkaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.47
044%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Michael Oliseprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.19
042%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Harry Kaneprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.07
042%134%216%36%42%5+0% - Ermedin Demirovićprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.41
047%129%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Atakan Karazorprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.04
045%132%215%35%41%5+0% - Jamie Lewelingprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.10
046%133%214%35%41%5+0% - Aleksandar Pavlovićprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.15
047%132%214%35%41%5+0% - Bilal El Khannousprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.14
048%131%214%35%41%5+0% - Angelo Stillerprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.88
046%134%214%34%41%5+0% - Julian Chabotprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.93
047%133%214%34%41%5+0% - Joshua Kimmichprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.87
047%134%214%34%41%5+0% - Tom Bischofprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.42
054%125%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Jamal Musialaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.12
050%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Konrad Laimerprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.08
050%131%213%34%41%5+0% - Dayotchanculle Upamecanoprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.85
048%134%213%34%41%5+0% - Finn Jeltschprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.04
052%129%213%35%41%5+0% - Serge Gnabryprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.30
052%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Jonathan Tahprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.92
051%131%213%34%41%5+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles43 playersHighest: Josha Mamadou Karaboue Vagnomann, 1.94 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Josha Mamadou Karaboue Vagnomannprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.94
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.71
024%123%220%315%410%55%6+3% - Maximilian Mittelstädtprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.83
- O 1.5
- 53%
- Model /90
- 2.22
020%127%224%316%48%53%6+2% - Angelo Stillerprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.73
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 1.87
020%130%225%315%47%53%6+1% - José María Andrés Baixauliprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 1.66
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.86
036%120%215%312%48%55%6+3% - Atakan Karazorprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.65
- O 1.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 1.97
024%128%224%314%47%53%6+1% - Bilal El Khannousprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.60
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.21
027%127%222%314%47%53%6+1% - Julian Chabotprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.49
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.70
025%131%224%313%45%52%6+1% - Dayotchanculle Upamecanoprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.48
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.65
024%133%224%312%45%52%6+1% - Leonidas Stergiouprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.44
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.97
031%127%222%313%45%52%6+1% - Joshua Kimmichprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.42
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.55
026%133%223%312%44%51%6+0% - Konrad Laimerprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.92
031%131%221%311%45%52%6+1% - Finn Jeltschprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.84
034%127%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Jamal Musialaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.93
031%131%221%311%44%52%6+1% - Aleksandar Pavlovićprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.83
030%132%221%311%44%51%6+0% - Jonathan Tahprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.30
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.62
032%131%221%311%44%51%6+0% - Alphonso Daviesprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.77
033%130%220%310%44%51%6+1% - Luca Antony Jaquezprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.87
034%131%219%310%44%51%6+1% - Min-Jae Kimprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.20
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.45
034%132%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Josip Stanisicprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.57
035%132%219%39%43%51%6+0% - Ramon Hendriksprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.82
040%128%217%39%44%51%6+1%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots43 playersHighest: Harry Kane, 2.62 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Harry Kaneprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 2.62
- O 1.5
- 67%
- Model /90
- 3.07
013%121%221%317%412%58%6+9% - Luis Fernando Díaz Marulandaprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 2.43
- O 1.5
- 63%
- Model /90
- 2.82
014%122%222%317%411%57%6+7% - Michael Oliseprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 2.32
- O 1.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 2.96
016%123%221%316%410%56%6+7% - Serge Gnabryprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.81
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 3.18
026%126%219%312%48%54%6+4% - Deniz Undavprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.66
- O 1.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 2.10
026%128%221%313%47%53%6+2% - Jamie Lewelingprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.74
032%131%220%310%44%52%6+1% - Jamal Musialaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.87
035%130%218%310%44%52%6+1% - Ermedin Demirovićprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.03
038%128%217%39%45%52%6+1% - Joshua Kimmichprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.33
033%133%220%39%44%51%6+1% - Chris Führichprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 1.16
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.86
039%130%217%38%44%51%6+1% - João Maria Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalvesprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 2.40
044%129%214%37%43%51%6+1% - Lennart Karlprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.83
043%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Leon Goretzkaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.53
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Aleksandar Pavlovićprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.33
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Badredine Bouananiprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 33
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 2.62
053%123%211%36%43%52%6+1% - Tiago Barreiros de Melo Tomásprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 2.23
049%128%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Tom Bischofprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.63
052%124%213%37%43%51%6+1% - Bilal El Khannousprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.77
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.06
051%130%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Angelo Stillerprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.82
049%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Atakan Karazorprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.69
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.82
053%130%212%33%41%5+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target40 playersHighest: Harry Kane, 1.32 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Harry Kaneprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 0.5
- 69%
- Model /90
- 1.54
031%132%220%310%44%52%6+1% - Michael Oliseprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 0.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 1.33
040%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Luis Fernando Díaz Marulandaprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 0.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 1.17
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Serge Gnabryprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 0.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.16
056%129%211%33%41%5+0% - Deniz Undavprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.65
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 0.83
055%130%211%33%41%5+0% - Ermedin Demirovićprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.60
- O 0.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 0.95
059%127%210%33%41%5+0% - Jamie Lewelingprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.56
- O 0.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 0.74
059%129%29%32%40%5+0% - Jamal Musialaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.52
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.75
062%127%28%32%4+1% - Chris Führichprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.49
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.78
064%126%28%32%4+0% - Lennart Karlprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.42
- O 0.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 0.77
068%124%26%31%4+0% - Joshua Kimmichprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 0.44
068%126%26%31%4+0% - Aleksandar Pavlovićprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.51
071%123%25%31%4+0% - João Maria Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalvesprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.79
073%121%25%31%4+0% - Badredine Bouananiprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 33
- Proj.
- 0.34
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.93
075%118%25%31%4+0% - Leon Goretzkaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.51
074%121%24%31%4+0% - Tiago Barreiros de Melo Tomásprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.77
075%120%24%31%4+0% - Tom Bischofprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.53
077%118%24%31%4+0% - Bilal El Khannousprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.27
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.37
077%119%23%3+0% - Atakan Karazorprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.30
079%118%23%3+0% - Angelo Stillerprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.27
078%119%23%3+0%
20 of 40 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won43 playersHighest: Michael Olise, 1.28 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Michael Oliseprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.63
033%131%219%310%44%52%6+1% - Luis Fernando Díaz Marulandaprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.32
036%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Tom Bischofprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.82
049%124%213%37%44%52%6+1% - Jamal Musialaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.43
043%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Harry Kaneprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.15
041%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Jamie Lewelingprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.25
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Angelo Stillerprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.02
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Atakan Karazorprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.89
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.06
046%131%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Joshua Kimmichprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.92
046%133%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Deniz Undavprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.06
047%132%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Ermedin Demirovićprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.27
051%128%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Min-Jae Kimprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.95
049%131%213%35%41%5+0% - Aleksandar Pavlovićprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.67
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.93
054%130%211%33%41%5+0% - Bilal El Khannousprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.65
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.89
056%129%211%33%41%5+0% - Julian Chabotprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.65
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.74
055%131%211%33%41%5+0% - Serge Gnabryprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.63
- O 1.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 1.10
057%128%210%33%41%5+0% - Leon Goretzkaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.63
- O 1.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.98
057%128%210%33%41%5+0% - Tiago Barreiros de Melo Tomásprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.61
- O 1.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 1.45
060%126%29%33%41%50%6+0% - Maximilian Mittelstädtprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.59
- O 1.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.72
058%129%210%33%41%5+0% - Lennart Karlprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 49
- Proj.
- 0.58
- O 1.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 1.06
060%128%29%33%41%5+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards43 playersHighest: Atakan Karazor, 0.15 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Atakan Karazorprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.18
086%113%2+1% - Konrad Laimerprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.21
086%113%2+1% - Leon Goretzkaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.23
086%112%2+1% - Dayotchanculle Upamecanoprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Finn Jeltschprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.19
087%112%2+1% - Joshua Kimmichprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.15
087%112%2+1% - Jonathan Tahprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.17
087%112%2+1% - Bilal El Khannousprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.19
087%112%2+1% - Julian Chabotprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Luis Fernando Díaz Marulandaprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Michael Oliseprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.16
088%111%2+1% - Angelo Stillerprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Deniz Undavprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.15
089%110%2+1% - Maximilian Mittelstädtprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.14
089%110%2+1% - Tom Bischofprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.21
089%110%2+1% - Aleksandar Pavlovićprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.16
089%110%2+1% - Leonidas Stergiouprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.15
089%110%2+1% - Min-Jae Kimprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.13
090%110%2+1% - José María Andrés Baixauliprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 52
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.19
090%19%2+1% - Jamal Musialaprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.16
090%19%2+1%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves43 playersHighest: Alexander Nübel, 3.48 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Alexander Nübelprovisional
GK · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.48
- O 2.5
- 64%
- Model /90
- 3.48
05%113%219%320%417%512%6+16% - Jonas Urbigprovisional
GK · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 2.61
- O 2.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.83
011%120%222%319%413%58%6+8% - Manuel Neuerprovisional
GK · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 2.16
- O 2.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 2.22
014%125%225%318%410%55%6+3% - Angelo Stillerprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Julian Chabotprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Atakan Karazorprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Maximilian Mittelstädtprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Deniz Undavprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jamie Lewelingprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Bilal El Khannousprovisional
MID · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Finn Jeltschprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Josha Mamadou Karaboue Vagnomannprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Leonidas Stergiouprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Luca Antony Jaquezprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ramon Hendriksprovisional
DEF · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ermedin Demirovićprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Chris Führichprovisional
FWD · VfB Stuttgart
- Mins
- 56
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Dayotchanculle Upamecanoprovisional
DEF · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Joshua Kimmichprovisional
MID · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 83
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Luis Fernando Díaz Marulandaprovisional
FWD · FC Bayern München
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.