Bundesliga · Germany
ElversbergvBayer 04 Leverkusen
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls22 playersHighest: Christian Michel Kofane, 1.30 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Christian Michel Kofaneprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.30
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 2.76
038%128%216%39%45%53%6+2% - Robert Andrichprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.50
033%132%220%310%44%51%6+1% - Jarell Quansahprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.38
032%133%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Montrell Amare Culbreathprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.79
036%130%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Patrik Schickprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.71
037%131%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Arthur Augusto de Matos Soaresprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 2.17
040%129%216%38%44%52%6+1% - Edmond Fayçal Tapsobaprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.17
034%135%220%38%43%51%6+0% - Ibrahim Mazaprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.50
037%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Nathan Tellaprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.87
042%130%216%38%43%51%6+0% - Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández Carballoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.80
042%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Malik Tillmanprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.54
043%130%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Ernest Pokuprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.65
044%131%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Loïc Badéprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.17
043%133%216%36%42%50%6+0% - Aleix García Serranoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.20
045%131%215%36%42%50%6+0% - Exequiel Alejandro Palaciosprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.43
050%128%213%36%42%51%6+0% - Martin Terrierprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.79
052%130%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Jonas Hofmannprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 1.66
054%128%212%34%42%50%6+0% - Eliesse Ben Seghirprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.65
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 2.38
059%126%29%33%41%51%6+0% - Lucas Vázquez Iglesiasprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.64
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 1.45
057%128%210%33%41%5+0% - Jeanuel Belocianprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.50
- O 1.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 1.65
067%121%27%33%41%5+0%
20 of 22 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles22 playersHighest: Robert Andrich, 1.96 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Robert Andrichprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.96
- O 1.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 2.34
018%125%224%317%49%54%6+2% - Edmond Fayçal Tapsobaprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.94
- O 1.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 1.99
015%128%227%317%48%53%6+2% - Ibrahim Mazaprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.94
- O 1.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 2.63
018%127%224%316%49%54%6+2% - Jarell Quansahprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 1.92
- O 1.5
- 56%
- Model /90
- 2.10
017%127%225%317%49%54%6+2% - Malik Tillmanprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.87
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 2.91
024%125%220%314%49%55%6+3% - Loïc Badéprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.87
- O 1.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 2.34
020%126%223%316%49%54%6+2% - Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández Carballoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.67
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 3.01
025%128%221%313%47%53%6+2% - Aleix García Serranoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.64
- O 1.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 2.18
026%127%222%314%47%53%6+1% - Exequiel Alejandro Palaciosprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.57
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.64
031%126%218%312%47%53%6+2% - Jonas Hofmannprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 2.85
037%129%217%39%45%52%6+1% - Arthur Augusto de Matos Soaresprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 1.25
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 2.37
037%129%218%310%44%52%6+1% - Montrell Amare Culbreathprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.16
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.70
036%131%219%39%43%51%6+0% - Lucas Vázquez Iglesiasprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 2.59
039%129%217%39%44%51%6+1% - Nathan Tellaprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.73
043%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Ernest Pokuprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.53
046%132%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Jeanuel Belocianprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 2.77
055%124%211%36%43%51%6+1% - Patrik Schickprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.80
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.15
048%132%214%35%41%5+0% - Martin Terrierprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 1.72
052%130%212%34%41%5+0% - Christian Michel Kofaneprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.44
056%128%211%34%41%5+0% - Eliesse Ben Seghirprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.52
- O 1.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 1.90
064%125%27%32%41%5+0%
20 of 22 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots22 playersHighest: Patrik Schick, 2.45 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Patrik Schickprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 2.45
- O 1.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 3.53
019%121%218%315%411%57%6+9% - Montrell Amare Culbreathprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 2.32
- O 1.5
- 58%
- Model /90
- 3.39
020%122%219%315%410%57%6+8% - Ernest Pokuprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.91
- O 1.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 3.36
025%126%219%313%48%55%6+5% - Nathan Tellaprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.91
- O 1.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 3.35
027%125%218%312%48%55%6+5% - Christian Michel Kofaneprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 1.80
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 3.82
031%126%216%310%47%54%6+6% - Martin Terrierprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 1.56
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 3.68
031%128%218%310%46%53%6+3% - Ibrahim Mazaprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.43
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.95
030%130%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Malik Tillmanprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 2.06
036%129%218%310%45%52%6+1% - Robert Andrichprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.53
033%131%220%310%44%52%6+1% - Aleix García Serranoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.62
037%130%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Eliesse Ben Seghirprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 1.13
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 4.12
044%129%213%36%43%52%6+2% - Exequiel Alejandro Palaciosprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.79
044%128%215%38%43%51%6+1% - Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández Carballoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.82
043%131%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Jonas Hofmannprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 2.24
046%128%214%37%43%51%6+1% - Edmond Fayçal Tapsobaprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.84
046%134%214%34%41%5+0% - Jarell Quansahprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 1.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.81
050%132%213%34%41%5+0% - Loïc Badéprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.82
055%130%211%33%41%5+0% - Arthur Augusto de Matos Soaresprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.43
- O 1.5
- 8%
- Model /90
- 0.82
068%124%27%32%4+0% - Lucas Vázquez Iglesiasprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 1.5
- 8%
- Model /90
- 0.91
069%123%26%31%4+0% - Jeanuel Belocianprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.33
- O 1.5
- 7%
- Model /90
- 1.08
076%118%25%31%4+0%
20 of 22 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target20 playersHighest: Patrik Schick, 1.15 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Patrik Schickprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 0.5
- 61%
- Model /90
- 1.66
039%130%217%38%44%51%6+1% - Montrell Amare Culbreathprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 0.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 1.24
048%130%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Christian Michel Kofaneprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.55
055%127%211%34%42%51%6+0% - Nathan Tellaprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.72
- O 0.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.28
054%128%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Ernest Pokuprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 0.5
- 46%
- Model /90
- 1.25
054%129%212%34%41%50%6+0% - Martin Terrierprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.60
- O 0.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.41
059%127%29%33%41%5+0% - Malik Tillmanprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.47
- O 0.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 0.74
065%125%27%32%4+0% - Ibrahim Mazaprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.47
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.63
064%127%27%31%4+0% - Eliesse Ben Seghirprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.45
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.64
069%122%26%32%41%5+0% - Exequiel Alejandro Palaciosprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.41
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.70
069%123%26%31%4+0% - Robert Andrichprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.38
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.45
070%124%25%31%4+0% - Jonas Hofmannprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.79
073%121%25%31%4+0% - Aleix García Serranoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.34
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.45
073%122%25%31%4+0% - Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández Carballoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.52
076%120%24%3+1% - Jarell Quansahprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.27
079%118%23%3+0% - Edmond Fayçal Tapsobaprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.21
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.22
081%117%22%3+0% - Loïc Badéprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.24
083%115%22%3+0% - Lucas Vázquez Iglesiasprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.25
090%110%2+1% - Arthur Augusto de Matos Soaresprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.21
090%19%2+1% - Jeanuel Belocianprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.09
- O 0.5
- 8%
- Model /90
- 0.30
092%17%2+1%
Fouls won22 playersHighest: Ibrahim Maza, 1.34 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Ibrahim Mazaprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.82
032%131%219%310%44%52%6+1% - Montrell Amare Culbreathprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.81
037%129%218%39%44%52%6+1% - Patrik Schickprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.77
037%130%218%39%44%52%6+1% - Malik Tillmanprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.21
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.88
039%129%217%39%44%52%6+1% - Nathan Tellaprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.16
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 2.04
040%129%216%38%44%52%6+1% - Robert Andrichprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.05
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.26
040%132%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández Carballoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.82
043%130%216%37%43%51%6+0% - Ernest Pokuprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.76
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+1% - Aleix García Serranoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.22
045%130%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Exequiel Alejandro Palaciosprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.51
049%128%213%36%42%51%6+0% - Christian Michel Kofaneprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.90
050%127%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Jarell Quansahprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 0.91
046%133%214%35%41%50%6+0% - Martin Terrierprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.94
050%129%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Jonas Hofmannprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.68
- O 1.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 1.53
057%127%210%34%41%50%6+0% - Loïc Badéprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 1.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.82
055%130%211%33%41%5+0% - Edmond Fayçal Tapsobaprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.65
- O 1.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.66
054%132%211%33%41%5+0% - Eliesse Ben Seghirprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.63
- O 1.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 2.29
061%125%28%33%41%51%6+0% - Arthur Augusto de Matos Soaresprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.51
- O 1.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.96
064%125%28%32%41%5+0% - Lucas Vázquez Iglesiasprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.46
- O 1.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 1.05
066%124%27%32%40%5+0% - Jeanuel Belocianprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 1.5
- 7%
- Model /90
- 1.13
075%118%25%31%40%5+0%
20 of 22 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards22 playersHighest: Jarell Quansah, 0.26 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Jarell Quansahprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.26
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.29
077%120%23%3+0% - Robert Andrichprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.24
082%116%22%3+0% - Edmond Fayçal Tapsobaprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.20
083%116%22%3+0% - Arthur Augusto de Matos Soaresprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.35
084%114%22%3+0% - Loïc Badéprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.23
084%115%22%3+0% - Aleix García Serranoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.22
085%114%21%3+0% - Ibrahim Mazaprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.21
086%113%2+1% - Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández Carballoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.28
086%113%2+1% - Malik Tillmanprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.22
087%112%2+1% - Christian Michel Kofaneprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.30
087%111%21%3+0% - Exequiel Alejandro Palaciosprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.24
087%111%2+1% - Patrik Schickprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.20
087%112%2+1% - Montrell Amare Culbreathprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.19
088%111%2+1% - Jonas Hofmannprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.27
089%110%2+1% - Lucas Vázquez Iglesiasprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.26
089%110%2+1% - Nathan Tellaprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.11
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.20
090%110%2+1% - Ernest Pokuprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.10
- O 0.5
- 10%
- Model /90
- 0.18
090%19%2+1% - Martin Terrierprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.09
- O 0.5
- 8%
- Model /90
- 0.21
092%18%2+0% - Jeanuel Belocianprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.08
- O 0.5
- 8%
- Model /90
- 0.28
092%17%2+1% - Eliesse Ben Seghirprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.08
- O 0.5
- 7%
- Model /90
- 0.29
093%17%2+0%
20 of 22 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves22 playersHighest: Mark Flekken, 3.77 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Mark Flekkenprovisional
GK · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 3.77
- O 2.5
- 69%
- Model /90
- 3.82
04%111%217%319%417%513%6+20% - Janis Blaswichprovisional
GK · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 3.74
- O 2.5
- 67%
- Model /90
- 3.98
05%112%216%317%416%512%6+21% - Edmond Fayçal Tapsobaprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jarell Quansahprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 82
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Robert Andrichprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Loïc Badéprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Aleix García Serranoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ibrahim Mazaprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Patrik Schickprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Montrell Amare Culbreathprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Malik Tillmanprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Exequiel Alejandro Palaciosprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ernest Pokuprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Nathan Tellaprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández Carballoprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Arthur Augusto de Matos Soaresprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 47
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Christian Michel Kofaneprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Jonas Hofmannprovisional
MID · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lucas Vázquez Iglesiasprovisional
DEF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 40
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Martin Terrierprovisional
FWD · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Mins
- 38
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 22 players shown, ranked by projection.