Premier League · England

SunderlandvFulham

Sunday 30 August at 14:00Stadium of Lightlineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls43 playersHighest: Sander Berge, 1.07 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Sander Berge
MID · Fulham
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.24
037%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kouassi Ryan Sessegnon
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.71
044%
126%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+1%
Reinildo Isnard Mandava
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.20
038%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Noah Sadiki
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.05
037%
135%
218%
37%
42%
50%
6+0%
Daniel Neill
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.03
039%
135%
218%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Enzo Le Fée
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.14
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Granit Xhaka
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.03
040%
135%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Alex Iwobi
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.04
041%
135%
217%
36%
42%
5+0%
Mouhamadou Diarra
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.18
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Adama Traoré Diarra
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.14
047%
130%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Wilson Isidor
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.41
047%
129%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Brian Brobbey
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.27
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Kenny Tete
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
0.97
044%
134%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Luke O'Nien
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
0.99
045%
133%
215%
35%
41%
5+0%
Patrick Roberts
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.02
047%
133%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Chris Rigg
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.13
049%
131%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Joachim Andersen
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.81
046%
135%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Calvin Bassey
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.82
047%
134%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Romaine Mundle
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.37
051%
130%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Alan Browne
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.77
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.31
054%
126%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Sander BergeMID	Fulham	1.24	78provisional	1.07	29%	66	037% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kouassi Ryan SessegnonDEF	Fulham	1.71	56provisional	1.06	29%	43	044% 126% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Reinildo Isnard MandavaDEF	Sunderland	1.20	79provisional	1.05	28%	25	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	1.05	88provisional	1.03	27%	33	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Daniel NeillMID	Sunderland	1.03	87provisional	0.99	26%	48	039% 135% 218% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Enzo Le FéeMID	Sunderland	1.14	78provisional	0.99	26%	54	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Granit XhakaMID	Sunderland	1.03	85provisional	0.98	26%	34	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alex IwobiFWD	Fulham	1.04	81provisional	0.94	24%	67	041% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Mouhamadou DiarraMID	Sunderland	1.18	70provisional	0.92	24%	20	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Adama Traoré DiarraFWD	Fulham	2.14	39provisional	0.92	23%	10	047% 130% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Wilson IsidorFWD	Sunderland	1.41	57provisional	0.90	24%	78	047% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Brian BrobbeyFWD	Sunderland	1.27	62provisional	0.88	23%	31	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kenny TeteDEF	Fulham	0.97	81provisional	0.88	22%	44	044% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Luke O'NienDEF	Sunderland	0.99	79provisional	0.86	22%	60	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 5+0%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Sunderland	1.02	72provisional	0.81	20%	49	047% 133% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Chris RiggMID	Sunderland	1.13	63provisional	0.79	20%	63	049% 131% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Joachim AndersenDEF	Fulham	0.81	88provisional	0.79	19%	62	046% 135% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Calvin BasseyDEF	Fulham	0.82	86provisional	0.78	19%	65	047% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Romaine MundleFWD	Sunderland	1.37	51provisional	0.78	19%	38	051% 130% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Alan BrowneMID	Sunderland	1.31	53provisional	0.77	20%	23	054% 126% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles43 playersHighest: Enzo Le Fée, 2.08 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Enzo Le Fée
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
2.08
O 1.5
59%
Model /90
2.39
016%
124%
224%
318%
410%
55%
6+3%
Sander Berge
MID · Fulham
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.93
O 1.5
56%
Model /90
2.23
017%
127%
225%
317%
49%
54%
6+2%
Kenny Tete
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
1.84
O 1.5
54%
Model /90
2.04
018%
127%
226%
316%
48%
53%
6+1%
Calvin Bassey
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.83
O 1.5
54%
Model /90
1.91
018%
128%
226%
316%
48%
53%
6+1%
Daniel Neill
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.79
O 1.5
53%
Model /90
1.86
018%
129%
226%
316%
47%
53%
6+1%
Noah Sadiki
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.79
O 1.5
53%
Model /90
1.84
017%
130%
226%
316%
47%
53%
6+1%
Granit Xhaka
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.76
O 1.5
52%
Model /90
1.85
019%
129%
226%
315%
47%
53%
6+1%
Antonee Robinson
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.75
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
1.96
021%
128%
224%
315%
47%
53%
6+1%
Trai Hume
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.66
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
1.77
021%
130%
225%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Kouassi Ryan Sessegnon
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.65
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.66
032%
123%
218%
313%
48%
54%
6+2%
Jorge Cuenca Barreno
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.64
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
2.64
038%
115%
217%
314%
49%
54%
6+3%
Alan Browne
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.62
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
2.77
034%
123%
217%
312%
48%
54%
6+3%
Dennis Cirkin
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.53
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.82
026%
130%
223%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Mouhamadou Diarra
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.53
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.95
026%
130%
222%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Nordi Mukiele Mulere
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.50
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.55
023%
133%
225%
312%
45%
51%
6+0%
Timothy Castagne
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.06
032%
126%
220%
312%
46%
53%
6+1%
Joachim Andersen
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.47
024%
134%
224%
312%
44%
51%
6+0%
Daniel Ballard
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.86
029%
130%
221%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Emile Smith Rowe
MID · Fulham
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.36
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.18
031%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Chris Rigg
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.92
032%
130%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Enzo Le FéeMID	Sunderland	2.39	78provisional	2.08	59%	54	016% 124% 224% 318% 410% 55% 6+3%
Sander BergeMID	Fulham	2.23	78provisional	1.93	56%	66	017% 127% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+2%
Kenny TeteDEF	Fulham	2.04	81provisional	1.84	54%	44	018% 127% 226% 316% 48% 53% 6+1%
Calvin BasseyDEF	Fulham	1.91	86provisional	1.83	54%	65	018% 128% 226% 316% 48% 53% 6+1%
Daniel NeillMID	Sunderland	1.86	87provisional	1.79	53%	48	018% 129% 226% 316% 47% 53% 6+1%
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	1.84	88provisional	1.79	53%	33	017% 130% 226% 316% 47% 53% 6+1%
Granit XhakaMID	Sunderland	1.85	85provisional	1.76	52%	34	019% 129% 226% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Antonee RobinsonDEF	Fulham	1.96	80provisional	1.75	51%	58	021% 128% 224% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Trai HumeDEF	Sunderland	1.77	84provisional	1.66	49%	85	021% 130% 225% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Kouassi Ryan SessegnonDEF	Fulham	2.66	56provisional	1.65	45%	43	032% 123% 218% 313% 48% 54% 6+2%
Jorge Cuenca BarrenoDEF	Fulham	2.64	56provisional	1.64	46%	23	038% 115% 217% 314% 49% 54% 6+3%
Alan BrowneMID	Sunderland	2.77	53provisional	1.62	43%	23	034% 123% 217% 312% 48% 54% 6+3%
Dennis CirkinDEF	Sunderland	1.82	76provisional	1.53	44%	41	026% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Mouhamadou DiarraMID	Sunderland	1.95	70provisional	1.53	44%	20	026% 130% 222% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Nordi Mukiele MulereDEF	Sunderland	1.55	87provisional	1.50	44%	32	023% 133% 225% 312% 45% 51% 6+0%
Timothy CastagneDEF	Fulham	2.06	65provisional	1.47	42%	54	032% 126% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+1%
Joachim AndersenDEF	Fulham	1.47	88provisional	1.43	42%	62	024% 134% 224% 312% 44% 51% 6+0%
Daniel BallardDEF	Sunderland	1.86	69provisional	1.43	41%	52	029% 130% 221% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Emile Smith RoweMID	Fulham	2.18	56provisional	1.36	39%	71	031% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Chris RiggMID	Sunderland	1.92	63provisional	1.34	38%	63	032% 130% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots43 playersHighest: Patrick Roberts, 1.88 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Patrick Roberts
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.88
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
2.35
022%
127%
222%
314%
48%
54%
6+3%
Alex Iwobi
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
1.70
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
1.89
022%
129%
223%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Eliezer Mayenda Dossou
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.70
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.51
030%
126%
218%
312%
47%
54%
6+4%
Wilson Isidor
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.68
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.65
031%
125%
217%
312%
47%
54%
6+4%
Brian Brobbey
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.63
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.35
028%
127%
220%
312%
47%
53%
6+3%
Chemsdine Talbi
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.48
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.39
032%
128%
218%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Romaine Mundle
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.42
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.50
034%
128%
217%
310%
45%
53%
6+2%
Simon Adingra
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.50
037%
128%
217%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Adama Traoré Diarra
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.75
040%
130%
215%
37%
44%
52%
6+2%
Noah Sadiki
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.17
035%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Granit Xhaka
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.18
036%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Enzo Le Fée
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.25
038%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Mouhamadou Diarra
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.38
039%
131%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Daniel Neill
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.12
037%
134%
218%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Oscar Bobb
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.34
042%
130%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
2.52
045%
128%
213%
37%
43%
52%
6+1%
Kevin Santos Lopes de Macedo
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.35
042%
131%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Chris Rigg
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.29
046%
130%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Sander Berge
MID · Fulham
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
0.98
046%
133%
215%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Emile Smith Rowe
MID · Fulham
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.25
051%
130%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Patrick RobertsFWD	Sunderland	2.35	72provisional	1.88	51%	49	022% 127% 222% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Alex IwobiFWD	Fulham	1.89	81provisional	1.70	48%	67	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Eliezer Mayenda DossouFWD	Sunderland	2.51	61provisional	1.70	45%	44	030% 126% 218% 312% 47% 54% 6+4%
Wilson IsidorFWD	Sunderland	2.65	57provisional	1.68	44%	78	031% 125% 217% 312% 47% 54% 6+4%
Brian BrobbeyFWD	Sunderland	2.35	62provisional	1.63	44%	31	028% 127% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+3%
Chemsdine TalbiFWD	Sunderland	2.39	56provisional	1.48	40%	28	032% 128% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Romaine MundleFWD	Sunderland	2.50	51provisional	1.42	38%	38	034% 128% 217% 310% 45% 53% 6+2%
Simon AdingraFWD	Sunderland	2.50	47provisional	1.31	35%	14	037% 128% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Adama Traoré DiarraFWD	Fulham	2.75	39provisional	1.18	30%	10	040% 130% 215% 37% 44% 52% 6+2%
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	1.17	88provisional	1.14	31%	33	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Granit XhakaMID	Sunderland	1.18	85provisional	1.12	30%	34	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Enzo Le FéeMID	Sunderland	1.25	78provisional	1.09	30%	54	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mouhamadou DiarraMID	Sunderland	1.38	70provisional	1.08	29%	20	039% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Daniel NeillMID	Sunderland	1.12	87provisional	1.08	29%	48	037% 134% 218% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Oscar BobbFWD	Fulham	2.34	41provisional	1.06	28%	14	042% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Rodrigo Muniz CarvalhoFWD	Fulham	2.52	38provisional	1.05	26%	52	045% 128% 213% 37% 43% 52% 6+1%
Kevin Santos Lopes de MacedoFWD	Fulham	2.35	40provisional	1.04	27%	26	042% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Chris RiggMID	Sunderland	1.29	63provisional	0.90	23%	63	046% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sander BergeMID	Fulham	0.98	78provisional	0.85	21%	66	046% 133% 215% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Emile Smith RoweMID	Fulham	1.25	56provisional	0.78	19%	71	051% 130% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target41 playersHighest: Eliezer Mayenda Dossou, 0.79 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Eliezer Mayenda Dossou
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.79
O 0.5
49%
Model /90
1.16
051%
129%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Brian Brobbey
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.73
O 0.5
48%
Model /90
1.05
052%
130%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Alex Iwobi
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.70
O 0.5
48%
Model /90
0.78
052%
132%
212%
33%
41%
5+0%
Wilson Isidor
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.70
O 0.5
45%
Model /90
1.10
055%
128%
211%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Chemsdine Talbi
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.59
O 0.5
41%
Model /90
0.96
059%
128%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Patrick Roberts
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.52
O 0.5
39%
Model /90
0.65
061%
128%
28%
32%
4+0%
Romaine Mundle
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.51
O 0.5
37%
Model /90
0.90
063%
126%
28%
32%
41%
5+0%
Simon Adingra
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.51
O 0.5
37%
Model /90
0.98
063%
126%
28%
32%
40%
5+0%
Adama Traoré Diarra
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
0.43
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
1.00
068%
124%
26%
32%
40%
5+0%
Oscar Bobb
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
0.42
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.93
068%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Kevin Santos Lopes de Macedo
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.42
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.94
068%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.39
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.93
071%
122%
26%
31%
4+0%
Enzo Le Fée
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.35
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.40
072%
123%
25%
31%
4+0%
Noah Sadiki
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.35
072%
123%
24%
3+1%
Mouhamadou Diarra
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.43
072%
122%
25%
31%
4+0%
Granit Xhaka
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.33
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.34
073%
122%
24%
3+1%
Daniel Neill
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.31
075%
121%
23%
3+0%
Chris Rigg
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.40
077%
120%
23%
3+1%
Alan Browne
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.42
080%
117%
23%
3+1%
Sander Berge
MID · Fulham
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.28
079%
118%
23%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Eliezer Mayenda DossouFWD	Sunderland	1.16	61provisional	0.79	49%	44	051% 129% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Brian BrobbeyFWD	Sunderland	1.05	62provisional	0.73	48%	31	052% 130% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Alex IwobiFWD	Fulham	0.78	81provisional	0.70	48%	67	052% 132% 212% 33% 41% 5+0%
Wilson IsidorFWD	Sunderland	1.10	57provisional	0.70	45%	78	055% 128% 211% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Chemsdine TalbiFWD	Sunderland	0.96	56provisional	0.59	41%	28	059% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Sunderland	0.65	72provisional	0.52	39%	49	061% 128% 28% 32% 4+0%
Romaine MundleFWD	Sunderland	0.90	51provisional	0.51	37%	38	063% 126% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Simon AdingraFWD	Sunderland	0.98	47provisional	0.51	37%	14	063% 126% 28% 32% 40% 5+0%
Adama Traoré DiarraFWD	Fulham	1.00	39provisional	0.43	32%	10	068% 124% 26% 32% 40% 5+0%
Oscar BobbFWD	Fulham	0.93	41provisional	0.42	32%	14	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Kevin Santos Lopes de MacedoFWD	Fulham	0.94	40provisional	0.42	32%	26	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Rodrigo Muniz CarvalhoFWD	Fulham	0.93	38provisional	0.39	29%	52	071% 122% 26% 31% 4+0%
Enzo Le FéeMID	Sunderland	0.40	78provisional	0.35	28%	54	072% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	0.35	88provisional	0.34	28%	33	072% 123% 24% 3+1%
Mouhamadou DiarraMID	Sunderland	0.43	70provisional	0.34	28%	20	072% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Granit XhakaMID	Sunderland	0.34	85provisional	0.33	27%	34	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Daniel NeillMID	Sunderland	0.31	87provisional	0.29	25%	48	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Chris RiggMID	Sunderland	0.40	63provisional	0.28	23%	63	077% 120% 23% 3+1%
Alan BrowneMID	Sunderland	0.42	53provisional	0.24	20%	23	080% 117% 23% 3+1%
Sander BergeMID	Fulham	0.28	78provisional	0.24	21%	66	079% 118% 23% 3+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won43 playersHighest: Noah Sadiki, 1.13 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Noah Sadiki
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.16
035%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Granit Xhaka
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.17
037%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Daniel Neill
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.13
037%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Enzo Le Fée
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.20
040%
132%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Patrick Roberts
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.27
041%
132%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Brian Brobbey
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.45
043%
130%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Mouhamadou Diarra
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.25
043%
131%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Eliezer Mayenda Dossou
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.30
048%
129%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Alex Iwobi
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
0.97
045%
133%
215%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Chris Rigg
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.23
048%
130%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Romaine Mundle
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.50
049%
129%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Alan Browne
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.43
052%
126%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Sander Berge
MID · Fulham
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.75
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
0.87
050%
132%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Dennis Cirkin
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.86
052%
131%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Chemsdine Talbi
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.17
053%
129%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Calvin Bassey
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.75
051%
132%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Kenny Tete
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.80
051%
132%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Reinildo Isnard Mandava
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
0.82
051%
132%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
38
Proj.
0.71
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.70
057%
127%
210%
34%
42%
51%
6+0%
Simon Adingra
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.71
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.35
055%
128%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	1.16	88provisional	1.13	31%	33	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Granit XhakaMID	Sunderland	1.17	85provisional	1.11	30%	34	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Daniel NeillMID	Sunderland	1.13	87provisional	1.09	29%	48	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Enzo Le FéeMID	Sunderland	1.20	78provisional	1.04	28%	54	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Patrick RobertsFWD	Sunderland	1.27	72provisional	1.02	27%	49	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Brian BrobbeyFWD	Sunderland	1.45	62provisional	1.00	27%	31	043% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mouhamadou DiarraMID	Sunderland	1.25	70provisional	0.98	26%	20	043% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Eliezer Mayenda DossouFWD	Sunderland	1.30	61provisional	0.88	23%	44	048% 129% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alex IwobiFWD	Fulham	0.97	81provisional	0.87	22%	67	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Chris RiggMID	Sunderland	1.23	63provisional	0.86	22%	63	048% 130% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Romaine MundleFWD	Sunderland	1.50	51provisional	0.86	22%	38	049% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alan BrowneMID	Sunderland	1.43	53provisional	0.84	22%	23	052% 126% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sander BergeMID	Fulham	0.87	78provisional	0.75	18%	66	050% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Dennis CirkinDEF	Sunderland	0.86	76provisional	0.73	17%	41	052% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Chemsdine TalbiFWD	Sunderland	1.17	56provisional	0.72	18%	28	053% 129% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Calvin BasseyDEF	Fulham	0.75	86provisional	0.72	17%	65	051% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Kenny TeteDEF	Fulham	0.80	81provisional	0.72	17%	44	051% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Reinildo Isnard MandavaDEF	Sunderland	0.82	79provisional	0.72	17%	25	051% 132% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Rodrigo Muniz CarvalhoFWD	Fulham	1.70	38provisional	0.71	17%	52	057% 127% 210% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Simon AdingraFWD	Sunderland	1.35	47provisional	0.71	17%	14	055% 128% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards43 playersHighest: Reinildo Isnard Mandava, 0.24 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Reinildo Isnard Mandava
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.28
079%
119%
22%
3+0%
Noah Sadiki
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.21
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.21
081%
117%
22%
3+0%
Luke O'Nien
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.23
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Granit Xhaka
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.21
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Joachim Andersen
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.20
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Sander Berge
MID · Fulham
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.22
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Kouassi Ryan Sessegnon
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.30
084%
114%
22%
3+0%
Antonee Robinson
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.21
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Mouhamadou Diarra
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.23
084%
115%
22%
3+0%
Calvin Bassey
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.19
084%
115%
21%
3+0%
Enzo Le Fée
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.20
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Kenny Tete
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.19
084%
114%
2+1%
Trai Hume
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.18
085%
114%
2+1%
Jorge Cuenca Barreno
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.26
086%
113%
22%
3+0%
Omar Federico Alderete Fernández
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.17
085%
113%
2+1%
Nordi Mukiele Mulere
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.16
086%
113%
2+1%
Chris Rigg
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.22
086%
113%
2+1%
Daniel Neill
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.16
086%
113%
2+1%
Dennis Cirkin
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.18
086%
113%
2+1%
Wilson Isidor
FWD · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.23
087%
112%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Reinildo Isnard MandavaDEF	Sunderland	0.28	79provisional	0.24	21%	25	079% 119% 22% 3+0%
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	0.21	88provisional	0.21	19%	33	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Luke O'NienDEF	Sunderland	0.23	79provisional	0.20	18%	60	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Granit XhakaMID	Sunderland	0.21	85provisional	0.20	18%	34	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Joachim AndersenDEF	Fulham	0.20	88provisional	0.20	18%	62	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Sander BergeMID	Fulham	0.22	78provisional	0.19	17%	66	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Kouassi Ryan SessegnonDEF	Fulham	0.30	56provisional	0.19	16%	43	084% 114% 22% 3+0%
Antonee RobinsonDEF	Fulham	0.21	80provisional	0.19	17%	58	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Mouhamadou DiarraMID	Sunderland	0.23	70provisional	0.18	16%	20	084% 115% 22% 3+0%
Calvin BasseyDEF	Fulham	0.19	86provisional	0.18	16%	65	084% 115% 21% 3+0%
Enzo Le FéeMID	Sunderland	0.20	78provisional	0.18	16%	54	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Kenny TeteDEF	Fulham	0.19	81provisional	0.17	16%	44	084% 114% 2+1%
Trai HumeDEF	Sunderland	0.18	84provisional	0.17	15%	85	085% 114% 2+1%
Jorge Cuenca BarrenoDEF	Fulham	0.26	56provisional	0.16	14%	23	086% 113% 22% 3+0%
Omar Federico Alderete FernándezDEF	Sunderland	0.17	85provisional	0.16	15%	33	085% 113% 2+1%
Nordi Mukiele MulereDEF	Sunderland	0.16	87provisional	0.16	14%	32	086% 113% 2+1%
Chris RiggMID	Sunderland	0.22	63provisional	0.15	14%	63	086% 113% 2+1%
Daniel NeillMID	Sunderland	0.16	87provisional	0.15	14%	48	086% 113% 2+1%
Dennis CirkinDEF	Sunderland	0.18	76provisional	0.15	14%	41	086% 113% 2+1%
Wilson IsidorFWD	Sunderland	0.23	57provisional	0.14	13%	78	087% 112% 2+1%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves43 playersHighest: Bernd Leno, 3.04 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Bernd Leno
GK · Fulham
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
3.04
O 2.5
56%
Model /90
3.04
07%
116%
221%
320%
415%
510%
6+11%
Robin Roefs
GK · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.64
O 2.5
48%
Model /90
2.64
09%
120%
223%
320%
413%
58%
6+7%
Anthony Patterson
GK · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
91
Proj.
2.25
O 2.5
38%
Model /90
2.23
013%
124%
225%
318%
411%
55%
6+4%
Jorge Cuenca Barreno
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ajibola Alese
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Omar Federico Alderete Fernández
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Joachim Andersen
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Calvin Bassey
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Luke O'Nien
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Daniel Ballard
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Leo Fuhr Hjelde
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
26
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.01
0100%
1+0%
Alex Iwobi
FWD · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Kenny Tete
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Antonee Robinson
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Sander Berge
MID · Fulham
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Timothy Castagne
DEF · Fulham
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Noah Sadiki
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Granit Xhaka
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nordi Mukiele Mulere
DEF · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Daniel Neill
MID · Sunderland
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Bernd LenoGK	Fulham	3.04	90provisional	3.04	56%	76	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Robin RoefsGK	Sunderland	2.64	90provisional	2.64	48%	35	09% 120% 223% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%
Anthony PattersonGK	Sunderland	2.23	91provisional	2.25	38%	45	013% 124% 225% 318% 411% 55% 6+4%
Jorge Cuenca BarrenoDEF	Fulham	0.00	56provisional	0.00	—	23	0100% 1+0%
Ajibola AleseDEF	Sunderland	0.00	59provisional	0.00	—	12	0100% 1+0%
Omar Federico Alderete FernándezDEF	Sunderland	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	33	0100% 1+0%
Joachim AndersenDEF	Fulham	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	62	0100% 1+0%
Calvin BasseyDEF	Fulham	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	65	0100% 1+0%
Luke O'NienDEF	Sunderland	0.00	79provisional	0.00	—	60	0100% 1+0%
Daniel BallardDEF	Sunderland	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	52	0100% 1+0%
Leo Fuhr HjeldeDEF	Sunderland	0.01	26provisional	0.00	—	17	0100% 1+0%
Alex IwobiFWD	Fulham	0.00	81provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%
Kenny TeteDEF	Fulham	0.00	81provisional	0.00	—	44	0100% 1+0%
Antonee RobinsonDEF	Fulham	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	58	0100% 1+0%
Sander BergeMID	Fulham	0.00	78provisional	0.00	—	66	0100% 1+0%
Timothy CastagneDEF	Fulham	0.00	65provisional	0.00	—	54	0100% 1+0%
Noah SadikiMID	Sunderland	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	33	0100% 1+0%
Granit XhakaMID	Sunderland	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	34	0100% 1+0%
Nordi Mukiele MulereDEF	Sunderland	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	32	0100% 1+0%
Daniel NeillMID	Sunderland	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	48	0100% 1+0%

20 of 43 players shown, ranked by projection.