PER90My betsAccount

La Liga · Spain

Racing SantandervVillarreal

Campos de Sport de El Sardinerolineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls20 playersHighest: Santiago Comesaña Veiga, 1.37 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • Santiago Comesaña Veiga

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.71
    030%
    131%
    221%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Pape Gueye

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.81
    030%
    131%
    221%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.45
    027%
    133%
    222%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Alberto Moleiro González

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.64
    034%
    132%
    220%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Daniel Parejo Muñoz

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.20
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.89
    037%
    130%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Juan Marcos Foyth

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.34
    035%
    133%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Georges Mikautadze

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.56
    036%
    132%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Sergi Cardona Bermúdez

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.38
    036%
    132%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Nicolas Pépé

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.69
    038%
    131%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Renato Palma Veiga

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.13
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.32
    036%
    132%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Pau Navarro Badenes

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.11
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.40
    036%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Logan Costa

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.27
    037%
    133%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ilias Akhomach Chakkour

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    2.48
    043%
    129%
    215%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.65
    041%
    131%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tajon Buchanan

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.94
    042%
    130%
    216%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Gerard Moreno Balaguero

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.69
    041%
    132%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Willy Kambwala

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.36
    048%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tani Oluwaseyi

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    33
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    2.27
    053%
    126%
    211%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Luiz Lúcio Reis Júnior

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.04
    O 1.5
    —
    Model /90
    0.04
    096%
    1+4%
  • Arnau Tenas Ureña

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.03
    O 1.5
    —
    Model /90
    0.03
    097%
    1+3%
Tackles20 playersHighest: Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González, 2.61 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    2.61
    O 1.5
    73%
    Model /90
    2.76
    08%
    119%
    225%
    321%
    414%
    58%
    6+5%
  • Santiago Comesaña Veiga

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    2.20
    O 1.5
    62%
    Model /90
    2.74
    016%
    123%
    223%
    318%
    411%
    56%
    6+4%
  • Pau Navarro Badenes

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    2.06
    O 1.5
    59%
    Model /90
    2.61
    016%
    126%
    224%
    317%
    410%
    55%
    6+3%
  • Sergi Cardona Bermúdez

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    2.00
    O 1.5
    57%
    Model /90
    2.42
    019%
    124%
    223%
    317%
    410%
    55%
    6+3%
  • Pape Gueye

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.94
    O 1.5
    56%
    Model /90
    2.56
    019%
    125%
    223%
    316%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Logan Costa

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.90
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.23
    019%
    127%
    224%
    316%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Juan Marcos Foyth

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.89
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.21
    019%
    126%
    225%
    317%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • Daniel Parejo Muñoz

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.79
    O 1.5
    49%
    Model /90
    2.83
    024%
    127%
    221%
    314%
    48%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Renato Palma Veiga

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.69
    O 1.5
    49%
    Model /90
    1.97
    023%
    128%
    224%
    315%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Willy Kambwala

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.55
    O 1.5
    43%
    Model /90
    2.45
    030%
    127%
    220%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Alberto Moleiro González

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.18
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.57
    034%
    133%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Nicolas Pépé

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.16
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.71
    036%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.84
    037%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tajon Buchanan

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    2.02
    040%
    131%
    217%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ilias Akhomach Chakkour

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    2.50
    042%
    130%
    216%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Georges Mikautadze

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.36
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Gerard Moreno Balaguero

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.58
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Tani Oluwaseyi

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    33
    Proj.
    0.63
    O 1.5
    15%
    Model /90
    1.73
    059%
    125%
    210%
    34%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Arnau Tenas Ureña

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.02
    O 1.5
    —
    Model /90
    0.02
    098%
    1+2%
  • Luiz Lúcio Reis Júnior

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.01
    O 1.5
    —
    Model /90
    0.01
    099%
    1+1%
Shots20 playersHighest: Georges Mikautadze, 2.16 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • Georges Mikautadze

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    2.16
    O 1.5
    56%
    Model /90
    2.94
    019%
    124%
    221%
    315%
    410%
    56%
    6+6%
  • Alberto Moleiro González

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    2.06
    O 1.5
    55%
    Model /90
    2.76
    020%
    125%
    221%
    315%
    49%
    55%
    6+5%
  • Nicolas Pépé

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.94
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    2.86
    024%
    125%
    219%
    313%
    48%
    55%
    6+5%
  • Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    1.89
    O 1.5
    49%
    Model /90
    3.02
    025%
    126%
    219%
    313%
    48%
    55%
    6+5%
  • Gerard Moreno Balaguero

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.79
    O 1.5
    48%
    Model /90
    3.04
    025%
    128%
    220%
    313%
    47%
    54%
    6+4%
  • Tajon Buchanan

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    1.50
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    2.83
    033%
    128%
    218%
    310%
    46%
    53%
    6+3%
  • Ilias Akhomach Chakkour

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    1.38
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    3.24
    036%
    128%
    216%
    39%
    45%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Pape Gueye

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.30
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.71
    033%
    131%
    219%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Santiago Comesaña Veiga

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.27
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.58
    034%
    131%
    219%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Tani Oluwaseyi

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    33
    Proj.
    1.17
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    3.19
    045%
    126%
    213%
    37%
    44%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Daniel Parejo Muñoz

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.43
    046%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.58
    O 1.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.62
    057%
    131%
    29%
    32%
    4+1%
  • Juan Marcos Foyth

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.54
    O 1.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.64
    060%
    129%
    29%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Sergi Cardona Bermúdez

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.54
    O 1.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.65
    061%
    128%
    29%
    32%
    4+1%
  • Renato Palma Veiga

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.52
    O 1.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.61
    061%
    128%
    28%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Logan Costa

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.51
    O 1.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.60
    062%
    128%
    28%
    32%
    4+0%
  • Pau Navarro Badenes

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.44
    O 1.5
    8%
    Model /90
    0.55
    066%
    126%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Willy Kambwala

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.40
    O 1.5
    7%
    Model /90
    0.63
    069%
    123%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Arnau Tenas Ureña

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 1.5
    —
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Luiz Lúcio Reis Júnior

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 1.5
    —
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
Shots on target20 playersHighest: Georges Mikautadze, 0.97 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • Georges Mikautadze

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.97
    O 0.5
    57%
    Model /90
    1.32
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Alberto Moleiro González

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 0.5
    53%
    Model /90
    1.13
    047%
    132%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Nicolas Pépé

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 0.5
    50%
    Model /90
    1.16
    050%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 0.5
    49%
    Model /90
    1.24
    051%
    130%
    213%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Gerard Moreno Balaguero

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 0.5
    48%
    Model /90
    1.25
    052%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Tajon Buchanan

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.57
    O 0.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.08
    060%
    127%
    29%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Ilias Akhomach Chakkour

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.51
    O 0.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.19
    064%
    125%
    28%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Tani Oluwaseyi

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    33
    Proj.
    0.46
    O 0.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.26
    068%
    122%
    27%
    32%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Pape Gueye

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.39
    O 0.5
    31%
    Model /90
    0.52
    069%
    124%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Santiago Comesaña Veiga

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.32
    O 0.5
    27%
    Model /90
    0.40
    073%
    122%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Daniel Parejo Muñoz

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.44
    077%
    119%
    23%
    3+1%
  • Logan Costa

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.19
    085%
    113%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Sergi Cardona Bermúdez

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.18
    086%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Renato Palma Veiga

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.17
    086%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.16
    086%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Juan Marcos Foyth

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.17
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Pau Navarro Badenes

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.17
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Willy Kambwala

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.17
    090%
    19%
    2+1%
  • Arnau Tenas Ureña

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 0.5
    0%
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
  • Luiz Lúcio Reis Júnior

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.00
    O 0.5
    0%
    Model /90
    0.00
    0100%
    1+0%
Fouls won20 playersHighest: Georges Mikautadze, 1.65 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • Georges Mikautadze

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.65
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.25
    027%
    128%
    220%
    312%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Pape Gueye

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    1.60
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.10
    027%
    128%
    221%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Alberto Moleiro González

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    1.44
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.93
    030%
    130%
    220%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    1.37
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    2.19
    034%
    129%
    218%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Nicolas Pépé

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.35
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.99
    034%
    129%
    218%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Tajon Buchanan

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    1.27
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    2.39
    037%
    129%
    217%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Santiago Comesaña Veiga

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.54
    035%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Gerard Moreno Balaguero

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    2.08
    036%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Ilias Akhomach Chakkour

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    1.20
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    2.81
    041%
    128%
    215%
    38%
    44%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Daniel Parejo Muñoz

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    1.11
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.76
    040%
    130%
    216%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.09
    039%
    134%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Tani Oluwaseyi

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    33
    Proj.
    0.89
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    2.42
    052%
    126%
    211%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Sergi Cardona Bermúdez

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.00
    048%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Pau Navarro Badenes

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.73
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.92
    051%
    132%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Renato Palma Veiga

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.72
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.83
    052%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Juan Marcos Foyth

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.71
    O 1.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.83
    052%
    131%
    212%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Logan Costa

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.69
    O 1.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.80
    053%
    131%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Willy Kambwala

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.57
    O 1.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.89
    061%
    127%
    29%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Luiz Lúcio Reis Júnior

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 1.5
    1%
    Model /90
    0.16
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Arnau Tenas Ureña

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 1.5
    1%
    Model /90
    0.14
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
Cards20 playersHighest: Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González, 0.24 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    85
    Proj.
    0.24
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    0.25
    079%
    118%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Pape Gueye

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    68
    Proj.
    0.22
    O 0.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.29
    081%
    117%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Juan Marcos Foyth

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.21
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.24
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Renato Palma Veiga

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.24
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Sergi Cardona Bermúdez

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    74
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.25
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Santiago Comesaña Veiga

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.24
    083%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Daniel Parejo Muñoz

    MID · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.29
    084%
    114%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Logan Costa

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.21
    084%
    114%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Pau Navarro Badenes

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.22
    084%
    114%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Tajon Buchanan

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    48
    Proj.
    0.17
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.31
    085%
    113%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Alberto Moleiro González

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    67
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.21
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • Willy Kambwala

    DEF · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    57
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.24
    086%
    112%
    21%
    3+0%
  • Nicolas Pépé

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.22
    086%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Georges Mikautadze

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.19
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    56
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.21
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Ilias Akhomach Chakkour

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    39
    Proj.
    0.12
    O 0.5
    11%
    Model /90
    0.29
    089%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Gerard Moreno Balaguero

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    53
    Proj.
    0.11
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.19
    090%
    110%
    2+1%
  • Tani Oluwaseyi

    FWD · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    33
    Proj.
    0.10
    O 0.5
    10%
    Model /90
    0.28
    090%
    19%
    2+1%
  • Luiz Lúcio Reis Júnior

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.10
    O 0.5
    9%
    Model /90
    0.10
    091%
    19%
    2+1%
  • Arnau Tenas Ureña

    GK · Villarreal

    provisional
    Mins
    90
    Proj.
    0.08
    O 0.5
    8%
    Model /90
    0.08
    092%
    17%
    2+0%
Saves20 playersHighest: Arnau Tenas Ureña, 3.43 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.