Serie A · Italy

BolognavLazio

Monday 24 August at 17:30Stadio Renato Dall'Aralineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls42 playersHighest: Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez, 1.34 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.56
029%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Mattia Zaccagni
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.50
028%
134%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Kenneth Taylor
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.45
028%
134%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.27
030%
135%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Nicolò Rovella
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.50
033%
133%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Danilo Cataldi
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.19
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.45
033%
134%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Matteo Cancellieri
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.82
036%
132%
218%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.21
035%
134%
219%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.61
039%
131%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Tijanni Noslin
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.83
044%
129%
214%
37%
43%
52%
6+1%
Jon Rowe
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.63
040%
132%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.55
043%
129%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Alessio Romagnoli
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.11
038%
135%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.67
042%
131%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Boulaye Dia
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.61
041%
132%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nuno Albertino Varela Tavares
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.30
041%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Gustav Tang Isaksen
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.54
041%
133%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Torbjørn Heggem
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.13
041%
133%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Riccardo Orsolini
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.40
042%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Martin Vitík
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.24
041%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD	Lazio	1.56	77provisional	1.34	38%	40	029% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Mattia ZaccagniFWD	Lazio	1.50	80provisional	1.34	38%	60	028% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Kenneth TaylorMID	Lazio	1.45	82provisional	1.33	38%	17	028% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Mattéo Guendouzi OliéMID	Lazio	1.27	89provisional	1.26	35%	53	030% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nicolò RovellaMID	Lazio	1.50	74provisional	1.23	34%	44	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Danilo CataldiMID	Lazio	1.45	74provisional	1.19	33%	27	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Matteo CancellieriFWD	Lazio	1.82	58provisional	1.17	32%	30	036% 132% 218% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	1.21	82provisional	1.11	30%	66	035% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	1.61	61provisional	1.09	30%	55	039% 131% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Tijanni NoslinFWD	Lazio	2.83	34provisional	1.07	27%	59	044% 129% 214% 37% 43% 52% 6+1%
Jon RoweFWD	Bologna	1.63	57provisional	1.04	28%	28	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	1.55	60provisional	1.03	28%	43	043% 129% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alessio RomagnoliDEF	Lazio	1.11	83provisional	1.03	28%	64	038% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	1.67	56provisional	1.03	28%	47	042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Boulaye DiaFWD	Lazio	1.61	56provisional	1.00	27%	62	041% 132% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nuno Albertino Varela TavaresDEF	Lazio	1.30	69provisional	0.99	27%	46	041% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gustav Tang IsaksenFWD	Lazio	1.54	57provisional	0.98	26%	67	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	Bologna	1.13	78provisional	0.98	26%	27	041% 133% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Riccardo OrsoliniFWD	Bologna	1.40	62provisional	0.96	25%	65	042% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Martin VitíkDEF	Bologna	1.24	70provisional	0.96	25%	19	041% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles42 playersHighest: Nicolò Rovella, 1.62 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Nicolò Rovella
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.62
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
1.98
022%
131%
224%
314%
46%
52%
6+1%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.58
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.72
022%
132%
225%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Kenneth Taylor
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.54
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.68
022%
133%
225%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.53
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
2.30
031%
126%
219%
312%
47%
53%
6+2%
Danilo Cataldi
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.75
025%
134%
224%
312%
44%
51%
6+0%
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.41
025%
134%
224%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Martin Vitík
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.69
029%
133%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Torbjørn Heggem
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.50
030%
132%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Jhon Janer Lucumí Bonilla
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.45
029%
134%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Alessio Romagnoli
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.38
029%
135%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Nuno Albertino Varela Tavares
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.62
032%
132%
221%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Juan Miranda González
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.42
033%
133%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Nikola Moro
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
1.19
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.85
036%
131%
219%
39%
44%
51%
6+0%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.88
037%
131%
218%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Adam Marušić
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.36
034%
134%
220%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.65
037%
131%
219%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Emil Holm
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.78
041%
128%
217%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Luca Pellegrini
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.75
040%
131%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
48
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.95
040%
131%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.51
040%
133%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò RovellaMID	Lazio	1.98	74provisional	1.62	47%	44	022% 131% 224% 314% 46% 52% 6+1%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	1.72	82provisional	1.58	46%	66	022% 132% 225% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Kenneth TaylorMID	Lazio	1.68	82provisional	1.54	45%	17	022% 133% 225% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	2.30	60provisional	1.53	43%	43	031% 126% 219% 312% 47% 53% 6+2%
Danilo CataldiMID	Lazio	1.75	74provisional	1.43	42%	27	025% 134% 224% 312% 44% 51% 6+0%
Mattéo Guendouzi OliéMID	Lazio	1.41	89provisional	1.40	41%	53	025% 134% 224% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Martin VitíkDEF	Bologna	1.69	70provisional	1.31	37%	19	029% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	Bologna	1.50	78provisional	1.30	37%	27	030% 132% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Jhon Janer Lucumí BonillaDEF	Bologna	1.45	80provisional	1.29	37%	61	029% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alessio RomagnoliDEF	Lazio	1.38	83provisional	1.28	37%	64	029% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nuno Albertino Varela TavaresDEF	Lazio	1.62	69provisional	1.25	36%	46	032% 132% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Juan Miranda GonzálezDEF	Bologna	1.42	77provisional	1.21	34%	63	033% 133% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nikola MoroMID	Bologna	1.85	58provisional	1.19	33%	52	036% 131% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+0%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	1.88	56provisional	1.16	32%	47	037% 131% 218% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Adam MarušićDEF	Lazio	1.36	75provisional	1.14	32%	68	034% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Charalampos LykogiannisDEF	Bologna	1.65	62provisional	1.14	32%	27	037% 131% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Emil HolmDEF	Bologna	1.78	56provisional	1.11	31%	32	041% 128% 217% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luca PellegriniDEF	Lazio	1.75	55provisional	1.08	29%	46	040% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Fisayo Dele-BashiruMID	Lazio	1.95	48provisional	1.05	28%	44	040% 131% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	1.51	61provisional	1.02	28%	55	040% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots42 playersHighest: Riccardo Orsolini, 1.89 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Riccardo Orsolini
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.89
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
2.75
023%
126%
221%
314%
48%
54%
6+4%
Jon Rowe
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.64
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.56
027%
128%
220%
312%
47%
53%
6+3%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.57
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.83
026%
130%
222%
312%
46%
53%
6+2%
Mattia Zaccagni
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.55
029%
132%
221%
311%
44%
52%
6+1%
Benjamín Domínguez
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.62
037%
127%
217%
310%
45%
53%
6+2%
Federico Bernardeschi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.81
038%
128%
216%
39%
45%
52%
6+2%
Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.53
036%
129%
217%
39%
45%
52%
6+2%
Thijs Dallinga
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
3.09
041%
127%
214%
38%
44%
52%
6+2%
Matteo Cancellieri
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.76
038%
131%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+1%
Gustav Tang Isaksen
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.77
038%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.52
042%
131%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Boulaye Dia
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.66
042%
131%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.06
041%
134%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.85
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.38
048%
130%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nikola Moro
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.31
049%
130%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kenneth Taylor
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.90
046%
134%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.23
051%
128%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.83
046%
134%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
35
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
2.06
050%
131%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tijanni Noslin
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
2.06
054%
127%
211%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Riccardo OrsoliniFWD	Bologna	2.75	62provisional	1.89	51%	65	023% 126% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+4%
Jon RoweFWD	Bologna	2.56	57provisional	1.64	44%	28	027% 128% 220% 312% 47% 53% 6+3%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD	Lazio	1.83	77provisional	1.57	44%	40	026% 130% 222% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Mattia ZaccagniFWD	Lazio	1.55	80provisional	1.38	39%	60	029% 132% 221% 311% 44% 52% 6+1%
Benjamín DomínguezFWD	Bologna	2.62	47provisional	1.37	36%	39	037% 127% 217% 310% 45% 53% 6+2%
Federico BernardeschiFWD	Bologna	2.81	42provisional	1.30	34%	29	038% 128% 216% 39% 45% 52% 6+2%
Nicolò CambiaghiFWD	Bologna	2.53	46provisional	1.30	34%	46	036% 129% 217% 39% 45% 52% 6+2%
Thijs DallingaFWD	Bologna	3.09	36provisional	1.25	31%	54	041% 127% 214% 38% 44% 52% 6+2%
Matteo CancellieriFWD	Lazio	1.76	58provisional	1.13	31%	30	038% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Gustav Tang IsaksenFWD	Lazio	1.77	57provisional	1.12	30%	67	038% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	1.52	61provisional	1.03	27%	55	042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Boulaye DiaFWD	Lazio	1.66	56provisional	1.03	27%	62	042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	1.06	82provisional	0.97	26%	66	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	1.38	56provisional	0.85	22%	47	048% 130% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nikola MoroMID	Bologna	1.31	58provisional	0.84	22%	52	049% 130% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kenneth TaylorMID	Lazio	0.90	82provisional	0.82	20%	17	046% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	1.23	60provisional	0.82	21%	43	051% 128% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mattéo Guendouzi OliéMID	Lazio	0.83	89provisional	0.82	20%	53	046% 134% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez LedesmaFWD	Lazio	2.06	35provisional	0.80	19%	59	050% 131% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tijanni NoslinFWD	Lazio	2.06	34provisional	0.78	19%	59	054% 127% 211% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target41 playersHighest: Riccardo Orsolini, 0.71 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Riccardo Orsolini
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.71
O 0.5
47%
Model /90
1.03
053%
131%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.60
O 0.5
43%
Model /90
0.70
057%
130%
210%
32%
41%
5+0%
Jon Rowe
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.59
O 0.5
42%
Model /90
0.93
058%
129%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Benjamín Domínguez
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.56
O 0.5
39%
Model /90
1.08
061%
126%
29%
33%
41%
5+0%
Mattia Zaccagni
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.52
O 0.5
39%
Model /90
0.58
061%
129%
28%
32%
4+0%
Boulaye Dia
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.47
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.76
065%
126%
27%
32%
4+0%
Gustav Tang Isaksen
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.46
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.73
065%
127%
27%
31%
4+0%
Federico Bernardeschi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.46
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.99
067%
124%
27%
32%
40%
5+0%
Matteo Cancellieri
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.46
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.71
065%
126%
27%
32%
4+0%
Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.41
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.80
069%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Thijs Dallinga
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.41
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
1.01
070%
122%
26%
32%
40%
5+0%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
0.39
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.58
069%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
35
Proj.
0.35
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.90
072%
122%
25%
31%
4+0%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.47
076%
120%
24%
3+1%
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.29
075%
121%
23%
3+0%
Tijanni Noslin
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.74
077%
118%
24%
31%
4+0%
Kenneth Taylor
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.29
077%
120%
23%
3+0%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.28
078%
119%
23%
3+0%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.34
081%
116%
23%
3+0%
Danilo Cataldi
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.27
080%
117%
22%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Riccardo OrsoliniFWD	Bologna	1.03	62provisional	0.71	47%	65	053% 131% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD	Lazio	0.70	77provisional	0.60	43%	40	057% 130% 210% 32% 41% 5+0%
Jon RoweFWD	Bologna	0.93	57provisional	0.59	42%	28	058% 129% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Benjamín DomínguezFWD	Bologna	1.08	47provisional	0.56	39%	39	061% 126% 29% 33% 41% 5+0%
Mattia ZaccagniFWD	Lazio	0.58	80provisional	0.52	39%	60	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Boulaye DiaFWD	Lazio	0.76	56provisional	0.47	35%	62	065% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Gustav Tang IsaksenFWD	Lazio	0.73	57provisional	0.46	35%	67	065% 127% 27% 31% 4+0%
Federico BernardeschiFWD	Bologna	0.99	42provisional	0.46	33%	29	067% 124% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Matteo CancellieriFWD	Lazio	0.71	58provisional	0.46	35%	30	065% 126% 27% 32% 4+0%
Nicolò CambiaghiFWD	Bologna	0.80	46provisional	0.41	31%	46	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Thijs DallingaFWD	Bologna	1.01	36provisional	0.41	30%	54	070% 122% 26% 32% 40% 5+0%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	0.58	61provisional	0.39	31%	55	069% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez LedesmaFWD	Lazio	0.90	35provisional	0.35	28%	59	072% 122% 25% 31% 4+0%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	0.47	56provisional	0.29	24%	47	076% 120% 24% 3+1%
Mattéo Guendouzi OliéMID	Lazio	0.29	89provisional	0.29	25%	53	075% 121% 23% 3+0%
Tijanni NoslinFWD	Lazio	0.74	34provisional	0.28	23%	59	077% 118% 24% 31% 4+0%
Kenneth TaylorMID	Lazio	0.29	82provisional	0.27	23%	17	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	0.28	82provisional	0.26	22%	66	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	0.34	60provisional	0.22	19%	43	081% 116% 23% 3+0%
Danilo CataldiMID	Lazio	0.27	74provisional	0.22	20%	27	080% 117% 22% 3+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won42 playersHighest: Mattia Zaccagni, 2.10 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Mattia Zaccagni
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
2.10
O 1.5
58%
Model /90
2.35
017%
125%
223%
316%
410%
55%
6+4%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.62
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.89
025%
129%
222%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Matteo Cancellieri
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
1.53
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.38
030%
129%
220%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Gustav Tang Isaksen
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.26
030%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Nicolò Cambiaghi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.72
035%
129%
217%
310%
45%
53%
6+2%
Jon Rowe
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.07
034%
130%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Riccardo Orsolini
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.90
034%
130%
219%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
1.22
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.24
032%
134%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Kenneth Taylor
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.19
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.30
033%
134%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Benjamín Domínguez
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.17
042%
128%
215%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Nicolò Rovella
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.36
037%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Jens Odgaard
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
61
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.57
041%
131%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Boulaye Dia
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.64
042%
131%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Danilo Cataldi
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.23
040%
134%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
35
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
2.60
043%
132%
215%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Tijanni Noslin
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
2.60
047%
128%
213%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.06
041%
134%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Manuel Lazzari
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
49
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.72
047%
129%
214%
36%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lewis Ferguson
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.37
048%
128%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Federico Bernardeschi
FWD · Bologna
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.77
051%
128%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Mattia ZaccagniFWD	Lazio	2.35	80provisional	2.10	58%	60	017% 125% 223% 316% 410% 55% 6+4%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD	Lazio	1.89	77provisional	1.62	46%	40	025% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Matteo CancellieriFWD	Lazio	2.38	58provisional	1.53	42%	30	030% 129% 220% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Gustav Tang IsaksenFWD	Lazio	2.26	57provisional	1.43	39%	67	030% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Nicolò CambiaghiFWD	Bologna	2.72	46provisional	1.40	37%	46	035% 129% 217% 310% 45% 53% 6+2%
Jon RoweFWD	Bologna	2.07	57provisional	1.32	36%	28	034% 130% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Riccardo OrsoliniFWD	Bologna	1.90	62provisional	1.30	36%	65	034% 130% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Mattéo Guendouzi OliéMID	Lazio	1.24	89provisional	1.22	34%	53	032% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kenneth TaylorMID	Lazio	1.30	82provisional	1.19	33%	17	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Benjamín DomínguezFWD	Bologna	2.17	47provisional	1.13	30%	39	042% 128% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Nicolò RovellaMID	Lazio	1.36	74provisional	1.11	30%	44	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jens OdgaardMID	Bologna	1.57	61provisional	1.06	29%	55	041% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Boulaye DiaFWD	Lazio	1.64	56provisional	1.02	27%	62	042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Danilo CataldiMID	Lazio	1.23	74provisional	1.01	27%	27	040% 134% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez LedesmaFWD	Lazio	2.60	35provisional	1.01	26%	59	043% 132% 215% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Tijanni NoslinFWD	Lazio	2.60	34provisional	0.98	24%	59	047% 128% 213% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	1.06	82provisional	0.97	25%	66	041% 134% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Manuel LazzariDEF	Lazio	1.72	49provisional	0.94	24%	48	047% 129% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lewis FergusonMID	Bologna	1.37	60provisional	0.91	24%	43	048% 128% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Federico BernardeschiFWD	Bologna	1.77	42provisional	0.82	20%	29	051% 128% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards42 playersHighest: Nicolò Rovella, 0.20 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Nicolò Rovella
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.24
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.20
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Kenneth Taylor
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.21
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Mattia Zaccagni
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.22
082%
116%
22%
3+0%
Alessio Romagnoli
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.20
084%
115%
21%
3+0%
Danilo Cataldi
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.22
084%
115%
21%
3+0%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.20
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Nuno Albertino Varela Tavares
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.21
085%
113%
2+1%
Luca Pellegrini
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.26
086%
113%
21%
3+0%
Jhon Janer Lucumí Bonilla
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.18
085%
113%
2+1%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.17
086%
113%
2+1%
Juan Miranda González
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.18
086%
113%
2+1%
Charalampos Lykogiannis
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.21
087%
112%
2+1%
Martin Vitík
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.18
087%
112%
2+1%
Oliver Provstgaard Nielsen
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.23
087%
112%
2+1%
Tommaso Pobega
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.22
088%
111%
2+1%
Matteo Cancellieri
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.21
088%
111%
2+1%
Patricio Gabarrón Gil
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.22
088%
111%
2+1%
Torbjørn Heggem
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Manuel Lazzari
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
49
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.24
088%
111%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò RovellaMID	Lazio	0.24	74provisional	0.20	18%	44	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Mattéo Guendouzi OliéMID	Lazio	0.20	89provisional	0.20	18%	53	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Kenneth TaylorMID	Lazio	0.21	82provisional	0.20	18%	17	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Mattia ZaccagniFWD	Lazio	0.22	80provisional	0.20	18%	60	082% 116% 22% 3+0%
Alessio RomagnoliDEF	Lazio	0.20	83provisional	0.18	16%	64	084% 115% 21% 3+0%
Danilo CataldiMID	Lazio	0.22	74provisional	0.18	16%	27	084% 115% 21% 3+0%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD	Lazio	0.20	77provisional	0.18	16%	40	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Nuno Albertino Varela TavaresDEF	Lazio	0.21	69provisional	0.16	15%	46	085% 113% 2+1%
Luca PellegriniDEF	Lazio	0.26	55provisional	0.16	14%	46	086% 113% 21% 3+0%
Jhon Janer Lucumí BonillaDEF	Bologna	0.18	80provisional	0.16	15%	61	085% 113% 2+1%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	0.17	82provisional	0.16	14%	66	086% 113% 2+1%
Juan Miranda GonzálezDEF	Bologna	0.18	77provisional	0.15	14%	63	086% 113% 2+1%
Charalampos LykogiannisDEF	Bologna	0.21	62provisional	0.14	13%	27	087% 112% 2+1%
Martin VitíkDEF	Bologna	0.18	70provisional	0.14	13%	19	087% 112% 2+1%
Oliver Provstgaard NielsenDEF	Lazio	0.23	56provisional	0.14	13%	28	087% 112% 2+1%
Tommaso PobegaMID	Bologna	0.22	56provisional	0.14	12%	47	088% 111% 2+1%
Matteo CancellieriFWD	Lazio	0.21	58provisional	0.13	12%	30	088% 111% 2+1%
Patricio Gabarrón GilDEF	Lazio	0.22	53provisional	0.13	12%	24	088% 111% 2+1%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	Bologna	0.15	78provisional	0.13	12%	27	088% 111% 2+1%
Manuel LazzariDEF	Lazio	0.24	49provisional	0.13	12%	48	088% 111% 2+1%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves42 playersHighest: Łukasz Skorupski, 2.07 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Łukasz Skorupski
GK · Bologna
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
2.07
O 2.5
34%
Model /90
2.16
015%
126%
225%
317%
49%
54%
6+3%
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Kenneth Taylor
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Alessio Romagnoli
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Mattia Zaccagni
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nicolò Rovella
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Adam Marušić
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Danilo Cataldi
MID · Lazio
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nuno Albertino Varela Tavares
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Gustav Tang Isaksen
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jhon Janer Lucumí Bonilla
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Remo Freuler
MID · Bologna
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Matteo Cancellieri
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Luca Pellegrini
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Oliver Provstgaard Nielsen
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Boulaye Dia
FWD · Lazio
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Juan Miranda González
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Torbjørn Heggem
DEF · Bologna
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Patricio Gabarrón Gil
DEF · Lazio
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Łukasz SkorupskiGK	Bologna	2.16	86provisional	2.07	34%	46	015% 126% 225% 317% 49% 54% 6+3%
Mattéo Guendouzi OliéMID	Lazio	0.00	89provisional	0.00	—	53	0100% 1+0%
Kenneth TaylorMID	Lazio	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	17	0100% 1+0%
Alessio RomagnoliDEF	Lazio	0.00	83provisional	0.00	—	64	0100% 1+0%
Mattia ZaccagniFWD	Lazio	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	60	0100% 1+0%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD	Lazio	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	40	0100% 1+0%
Nicolò RovellaMID	Lazio	0.00	74provisional	0.00	—	44	0100% 1+0%
Adam MarušićDEF	Lazio	0.00	75provisional	0.00	—	68	0100% 1+0%
Danilo CataldiMID	Lazio	0.00	74provisional	0.00	—	27	0100% 1+0%
Nuno Albertino Varela TavaresDEF	Lazio	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%
Gustav Tang IsaksenFWD	Lazio	0.00	57provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%
Jhon Janer Lucumí BonillaDEF	Bologna	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	61	0100% 1+0%
Remo FreulerMID	Bologna	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	66	0100% 1+0%
Matteo CancellieriFWD	Lazio	0.00	58provisional	0.00	—	30	0100% 1+0%
Luca PellegriniDEF	Lazio	0.00	55provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%
Oliver Provstgaard NielsenDEF	Lazio	0.00	56provisional	0.00	—	28	0100% 1+0%
Boulaye DiaFWD	Lazio	0.00	56provisional	0.00	—	62	0100% 1+0%
Juan Miranda GonzálezDEF	Bologna	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	63	0100% 1+0%
Torbjørn HeggemDEF	Bologna	0.00	78provisional	0.00	—	27	0100% 1+0%
Patricio Gabarrón GilDEF	Lazio	0.00	53provisional	0.00	—	24	0100% 1+0%

20 of 42 players shown, ranked by projection.