Serie A · Italy
GenoavNapoli
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls48 playersHighest: Rasmus Winther Højlund, 1.35 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Rasmus Winther Højlundprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.35
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.46
028%133%222%311%44%51%6+1% - Romelu Lukaku Menamaprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.64
033%130%220%310%44%51%6+1% - Sam Beukemaprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.64
034%130%219%310%44%52%6+1% - Scott McTominayprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.25
033%134%220%39%43%51%6+0% - André-Frank Zambo Anguissaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.36
034%133%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Morten Frendrupprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.16
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.19
033%135%220%38%43%51%6+0% - Morten Thorsbyprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.68
039%130%218%39%44%51%6+1% - Giovanni Di Lorenzoprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.13
034%135%219%38%42%51%6+0% - Alessandro Buongiornoprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.23
036%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Juan Guilherme Nunes Jesusprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.08
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.38
039%131%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Alisson de Almeida Santosprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.60
039%133%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Amir Rrahmaniprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.09
036%135%219%37%42%51%6+0% - Lorenzo Colomboprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.55
039%132%218%37%43%51%6+0% - Matteo Politanoprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.32
039%133%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Leo Skiri Oestigaardprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.06
037%135%218%37%42%50%6+0% - Stanislav Lobotkaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.16
038%135%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Kevin De Bruyneprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.42
038%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Mikael Egill Ellertssonprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.19
040%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Billy Gilmourprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.96
046%128%214%37%43%51%6+1% - Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveiraprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.98
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.48
042%132%216%37%42%51%6+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles48 playersHighest: Morten Frendrup, 1.96 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Morten Frendrupprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.96
- O 1.5
- 58%
- Model /90
- 2.02
015%127%227%317%49%54%6+2% - Brooke Norton-Cuffyprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.73
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.17
022%128%223%315%47%53%6+1% - Stefano Sabelliprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.59
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.39
026%128%221%313%47%53%6+1% - Billy Gilmourprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 46
- Proj.
- 1.57
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 3.07
033%126%217%311%47%54%6+3% - Giovanni Di Lorenzoprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 1.49
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.51
023%133%225%312%45%51%6+0% - Johan Felipe Vásquez Ibarraprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.41
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.46
025%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Leo Skiri Oestigaardprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.39
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.43
025%134%224%311%44%51%6+0% - Mikael Egill Ellertssonprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.39
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 1.63
029%131%222%311%45%51%6+1% - Scott McTominayprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.43
027%134%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Stanislav Lobotkaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.54
027%134%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Aarón Martín Caricolprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.58
029%132%222%311%44%51%6+0% - Juan Guilherme Nunes Jesusprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.70
032%130%221%311%44%51%6+1% - André-Frank Zambo Anguissaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.53
029%133%222%310%44%51%6+0% - Morten Thorsbyprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 1.31
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.93
033%129%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Mathías Olivera Miramontesprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 1.31
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.79
032%131%221%310%44%51%6+1% - Alessandro Buongiornoprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.29
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.44
029%133%222%310%44%51%6+0% - Amir Rrahmaniprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 1.27
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.30
028%135%222%310%43%51%6+0% - Alessandro Marcandalliprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.43
031%133%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Kevin De Bruyneprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.69
031%135%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Alan Matturro Romeroprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.56
036%131%219%39%44%51%6+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots48 playersHighest: Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira, 1.86 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveiraprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.86
- O 1.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 2.80
025%126%220%313%48%54%6+4% - Rasmus Winther Højlundprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.80
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 1.94
020%129%223%314%47%53%6+2% - Lorenzo Colomboprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.63
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 2.37
027%128%221%313%47%53%6+2% - Romelu Lukaku Menamaprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.59
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.02
028%127%221%313%46%53%6+2% - Matteo Politanoprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.56
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.98
027%129%221%312%46%53%6+2% - Alisson de Almeida Santosprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.47
- O 1.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 2.21
030%130%220%311%45%52%6+2% - Scott McTominayprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.32
032%133%220%39%44%51%6+1% - David Neres Camposprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 1.22
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 2.18
041%127%215%39%44%52%6+1% - Junior Messiasprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 1.09
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 2.40
041%130%215%37%43%51%6+1% - Morten Frendrupprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.99
041%134%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Mikael Egill Ellertssonprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.11
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - André-Frank Zambo Anguissaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.10
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Ruslan Malinovskiyprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.37
044%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filhoprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.66
047%129%214%36%43%51%6+0% - Noa Langprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.92
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 2.26
048%128%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Caleb Ekubanprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 2.64
046%131%214%35%42%51%6+1% - Kevin De Bruyneprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.86
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.19
045%133%215%35%41%50%6+0% - Lorenzo Luccaprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 2.94
059%122%28%35%43%52%6+1% - Morten Thorsbyprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.16
051%129%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Stanislav Lobotkaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.88
048%133%213%34%41%5+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target44 playersHighest: Rasmus Winther Højlund, 0.74 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Rasmus Winther Højlundprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.74
- O 0.5
- 50%
- Model /90
- 0.79
050%133%213%34%41%5+0% - Alisson de Almeida Santosprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 0.99
055%130%211%33%41%5+0% - Lorenzo Colomboprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 0.64
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 0.94
055%130%211%33%41%5+0% - Romelu Lukaku Menamaprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.60
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 0.76
058%129%210%33%41%5+0% - Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveiraprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.55
- O 0.5
- 40%
- Model /90
- 0.83
060%128%29%32%40%5+0% - Scott McTominayprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.46
- O 0.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 0.48
064%127%27%31%4+0% - Matteo Politanoprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.45
- O 0.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 0.57
065%126%27%31%4+0% - Junior Messiasprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.39
- O 0.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 0.86
070%123%26%31%4+0% - David Neres Camposprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.37
- O 0.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 0.65
072%121%25%31%4+0% - Noa Langprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.35
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 0.87
073%121%25%31%4+0% - Caleb Ekubanprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 31
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 0.94
074%121%24%31%4+0% - André-Frank Zambo Anguissaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.35
075%121%24%3+1% - Morten Frendrupprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.31
075%121%24%3+0% - Kevin De Bruyneprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.41
075%121%24%3+1% - Lorenzo Luccaprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 25
- Proj.
- 0.30
- O 0.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.06
079%116%24%31%40%5+0% - Morten Thorsbyprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.28
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.41
077%119%24%3+1% - Ruslan Malinovskiyprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.27
- O 0.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 0.40
077%119%23%3+0% - Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filhoprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.27
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.48
078%118%23%3+1% - Giovane Santana do Nascimentoprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 28
- Proj.
- 0.27
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.86
078%118%23%31%4+0% - Mikael Egill Ellertssonprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.26
- O 0.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.30
078%119%23%3+0%
20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won48 playersHighest: Rasmus Winther Højlund, 1.68 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Rasmus Winther Højlundprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 1.68
- O 1.5
- 48%
- Model /90
- 1.81
023%130%223%313%47%53%6+2% - Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveiraprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.52
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 2.29
030%128%219%311%46%53%6+2% - Scott McTominayprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.44
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.52
028%132%222%311%45%52%6+1% - Romelu Lukaku Menamaprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.68
034%129%219%310%45%52%6+1% - Lorenzo Colomboprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 62
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.92
033%130%219%310%44%52%6+1% - Alisson de Almeida Santosprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.85
035%131%218%39%44%52%6+1% - Matteo Politanoprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.23
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.56
035%131%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Stanislav Lobotkaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.30
035%133%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Mikael Egill Ellertssonprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.34
038%131%218%38%43%51%6+0% - André-Frank Zambo Anguissaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.29
037%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Morten Frendrupprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.11
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.14
036%134%219%38%43%51%6+0% - Junior Messiasprovisional
FWD · Genoa
- Mins
- 41
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 2.17
045%130%214%36%43%51%6+1% - Kevin De Bruyneprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.31
042%133%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Antonio Vergaraprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.63
049%126%214%37%43%51%6+0% - David Neres Camposprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.91
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.64
049%127%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Ruslan Malinovskiyprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.90
- O 1.5
- 23%
- Model /90
- 1.32
045%132%215%36%42%51%6+0% - Giovanni Di Lorenzoprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 0.88
044%134%215%35%41%5+0% - Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filhoprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 50
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.52
050%128%213%36%42%51%6+0% - Noa Langprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 2.04
051%128%212%35%42%51%6+0% - Johan Felipe Vásquez Ibarraprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.82
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.85
046%133%214%35%41%5+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards48 playersHighest: Nicola Leali, 0.20 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Nicola Lealiprovisional
GK · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.20
- O 0.5
- 18%
- Model /90
- 0.21
082%116%22%3+0% - Sam Beukemaprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.19
- O 0.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 0.24
083%115%22%3+0% - Juan Guilherme Nunes Jesusprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.23
084%114%22%3+0% - Leo Skiri Oestigaardprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.17
085%114%2+1% - Ruslan Malinovskiyprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.22
086%113%2+1% - Alessandro Buongiornoprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - André-Frank Zambo Anguissaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Johan Felipe Vásquez Ibarraprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.15
087%112%2+1% - Giovanni Di Lorenzoprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.14
087%112%2+1% - Morten Thorsbyprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 61
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.21
087%112%2+1% - Alan Matturro Romeroprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 69
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.18
087%112%2+1% - Morten Frendrupprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.14
087%112%2+1% - Amir Rrahmaniprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.14
087%112%2+1% - Alessandro Marcandalliprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.16
087%112%2+1% - Kevin De Bruyneprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.19
087%112%2+1% - Stanislav Lobotkaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Alessandro Vogliaccoprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 59
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.20
088%111%2+1% - Scott McTominayprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Sebastian Otoaprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.19
088%111%2+1% - Romelu Lukaku Menamaprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.16
088%111%2+1%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves48 playersHighest: Vanja Milinković Savić, 2.71 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Vanja Milinković Savićprovisional
GK · Napoli
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 2.71
- O 2.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 2.71
09%119%223%320%414%58%6+8% - Alex Meretprovisional
GK · Napoli
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 2.48
- O 2.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 2.52
010%122%224%319%412%57%6+6% - Nicola Lealiprovisional
GK · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 2.45
- O 2.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.52
011%122%224%319%412%57%6+5% - Justin Bijlowprovisional
GK · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 2.43
- O 2.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.51
011%122%224%319%412%56%6+5% - Giovanni Di Lorenzoprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Amir Rrahmaniprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 88
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Scott McTominayprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Rasmus Winther Højlundprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 84
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Stanislav Lobotkaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 79
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Alessandro Buongiornoprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - André-Frank Zambo Anguissaprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 78
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Juan Guilherme Nunes Jesusprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Matteo Politanoprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sam Beukemaprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 70
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Romelu Lukaku Menamaprovisional
FWD · Napoli
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Mathías Olivera Miramontesprovisional
DEF · Napoli
- Mins
- 66
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Kevin De Bruyneprovisional
MID · Napoli
- Mins
- 65
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Johan Felipe Vásquez Ibarraprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Morten Frendrupprovisional
MID · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Leo Skiri Oestigaardprovisional
DEF · Genoa
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.