PER90My betsAccount

Serie A · Italy

GenoavNapoli

Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferrarislineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

  1. Step 1

    His own record

    Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.

  2. Step 2

    Pulled toward his position

    A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.

  3. Step 3

    This fixture's conditions

    How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.

  4. Step 4

    Scaled to expected minutes

    A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column
Model /90
The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins
Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected
The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.
Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n
Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution
The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls48 playersHighest: Rasmus Winther Højlund, 1.35 expectedshow

What drives it Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.35
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.46
    028%
    133%
    222%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.64
    033%
    130%
    220%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Sam Beukema

    DEF · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    1.28
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.64
    034%
    130%
    219%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Scott McTominay

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.25
    033%
    134%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.17
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.36
    034%
    133%
    220%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Morten Frendrup

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.16
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.19
    033%
    135%
    220%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Morten Thorsby

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    1.68
    039%
    130%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Giovanni Di Lorenzo

    DEF · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.11
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.13
    034%
    135%
    219%
    38%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.10
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.23
    036%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.08
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.38
    039%
    131%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.60
    039%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Amir Rrahmani

    DEF · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    1.07
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.09
    036%
    135%
    219%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Lorenzo Colombo

    FWD · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.06
    O 1.5
    29%
    Model /90
    1.55
    039%
    132%
    218%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Matteo Politano

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.04
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    1.32
    039%
    133%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.06
    037%
    135%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Stanislav Lobotka

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.03
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.16
    038%
    135%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Kevin De Bruyne

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.02
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.42
    038%
    134%
    218%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.01
    O 1.5
    27%
    Model /90
    1.19
    040%
    133%
    217%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Billy Gilmour

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.00
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.96
    046%
    128%
    214%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.98
    O 1.5
    26%
    Model /90
    1.48
    042%
    132%
    216%
    37%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles48 playersHighest: Morten Frendrup, 1.96 expectedshow

What drives it Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

  • Morten Frendrup

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.96
    O 1.5
    58%
    Model /90
    2.02
    015%
    127%
    227%
    317%
    49%
    54%
    6+2%
  • provisional
    Mins
    72
    Proj.
    1.73
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    2.17
    022%
    128%
    223%
    315%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Stefano Sabelli

    DEF · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.59
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.39
    026%
    128%
    221%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+1%
  • Billy Gilmour

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    46
    Proj.
    1.57
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    3.07
    033%
    126%
    217%
    311%
    47%
    54%
    6+3%
  • Giovanni Di Lorenzo

    DEF · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    1.49
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.51
    023%
    133%
    225%
    312%
    45%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.41
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.46
    025%
    134%
    224%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.39
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.43
    025%
    134%
    224%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.39
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    1.63
    029%
    131%
    222%
    311%
    45%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Scott McTominay

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.36
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.43
    027%
    134%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Stanislav Lobotka

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.36
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.54
    027%
    134%
    223%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    76
    Proj.
    1.34
    O 1.5
    39%
    Model /90
    1.58
    029%
    132%
    222%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.33
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.70
    032%
    130%
    221%
    311%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.32
    O 1.5
    38%
    Model /90
    1.53
    029%
    133%
    222%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Morten Thorsby

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    1.31
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.93
    033%
    129%
    220%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    66
    Proj.
    1.31
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.79
    032%
    131%
    221%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    1.29
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.44
    029%
    133%
    222%
    310%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Amir Rrahmani

    DEF · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    1.27
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.30
    028%
    135%
    222%
    310%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.43
    031%
    133%
    221%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Kevin De Bruyne

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.69
    031%
    135%
    221%
    39%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    1.19
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.56
    036%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots48 playersHighest: Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira, 1.86 expectedshow

What drives it The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.86
    O 1.5
    50%
    Model /90
    2.80
    025%
    126%
    220%
    313%
    48%
    54%
    6+4%
  • provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.80
    O 1.5
    51%
    Model /90
    1.94
    020%
    129%
    223%
    314%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Lorenzo Colombo

    FWD · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.63
    O 1.5
    45%
    Model /90
    2.37
    027%
    128%
    221%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.59
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    2.02
    028%
    127%
    221%
    313%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Matteo Politano

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.56
    O 1.5
    44%
    Model /90
    1.98
    027%
    129%
    221%
    312%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.47
    O 1.5
    40%
    Model /90
    2.21
    030%
    130%
    220%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+2%
  • Scott McTominay

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.26
    O 1.5
    35%
    Model /90
    1.32
    032%
    133%
    220%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • David Neres Campos

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    1.22
    O 1.5
    32%
    Model /90
    2.18
    041%
    127%
    215%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Junior Messias

    FWD · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    1.09
    O 1.5
    28%
    Model /90
    2.40
    041%
    130%
    215%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Morten Frendrup

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.96
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.99
    041%
    134%
    217%
    36%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.11
    043%
    132%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.95
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.10
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Ruslan Malinovskiy

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.37
    044%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.66
    047%
    129%
    214%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Noa Lang

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    0.92
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    2.26
    048%
    128%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Caleb Ekuban

    FWD · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    31
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    2.64
    046%
    131%
    214%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Kevin De Bruyne

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.86
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.19
    045%
    133%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Lorenzo Lucca

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    25
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    2.94
    059%
    122%
    28%
    35%
    43%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Morten Thorsby

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.79
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    1.16
    051%
    129%
    213%
    35%
    42%
    50%
    6+0%
  • Stanislav Lobotka

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.78
    O 1.5
    19%
    Model /90
    0.88
    048%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target44 playersHighest: Rasmus Winther Højlund, 0.74 expectedshow

What drives it Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    0.74
    O 0.5
    50%
    Model /90
    0.79
    050%
    133%
    213%
    34%
    41%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.66
    O 0.5
    45%
    Model /90
    0.99
    055%
    130%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • Lorenzo Colombo

    FWD · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    0.64
    O 0.5
    45%
    Model /90
    0.94
    055%
    130%
    211%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.60
    O 0.5
    42%
    Model /90
    0.76
    058%
    129%
    210%
    33%
    41%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    0.55
    O 0.5
    40%
    Model /90
    0.83
    060%
    128%
    29%
    32%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Scott McTominay

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.46
    O 0.5
    36%
    Model /90
    0.48
    064%
    127%
    27%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Matteo Politano

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.45
    O 0.5
    35%
    Model /90
    0.57
    065%
    126%
    27%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Junior Messias

    FWD · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.39
    O 0.5
    30%
    Model /90
    0.86
    070%
    123%
    26%
    31%
    4+0%
  • David Neres Campos

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.37
    O 0.5
    28%
    Model /90
    0.65
    072%
    121%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Noa Lang

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    0.35
    O 0.5
    27%
    Model /90
    0.87
    073%
    121%
    25%
    31%
    4+0%
  • Caleb Ekuban

    FWD · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    31
    Proj.
    0.32
    O 0.5
    26%
    Model /90
    0.94
    074%
    121%
    24%
    31%
    4+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.35
    075%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Morten Frendrup

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.31
    075%
    121%
    24%
    3+0%
  • Kevin De Bruyne

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    25%
    Model /90
    0.41
    075%
    121%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Lorenzo Lucca

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    25
    Proj.
    0.30
    O 0.5
    21%
    Model /90
    1.06
    079%
    116%
    24%
    31%
    40%
    5+0%
  • Morten Thorsby

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.28
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.41
    077%
    119%
    24%
    3+1%
  • Ruslan Malinovskiy

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.27
    O 0.5
    23%
    Model /90
    0.40
    077%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.27
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.48
    078%
    118%
    23%
    3+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    28
    Proj.
    0.27
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.86
    078%
    118%
    23%
    31%
    4+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    0.26
    O 0.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.30
    078%
    119%
    23%
    3+0%

20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won48 playersHighest: Rasmus Winther Højlund, 1.68 expectedshow

What drives it How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

  • provisional
    Mins
    84
    Proj.
    1.68
    O 1.5
    48%
    Model /90
    1.81
    023%
    130%
    223%
    313%
    47%
    53%
    6+2%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.52
    O 1.5
    42%
    Model /90
    2.29
    030%
    128%
    219%
    311%
    46%
    53%
    6+2%
  • Scott McTominay

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    1.44
    O 1.5
    41%
    Model /90
    1.52
    028%
    132%
    222%
    311%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.33
    O 1.5
    37%
    Model /90
    1.68
    034%
    129%
    219%
    310%
    45%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Lorenzo Colombo

    FWD · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    62
    Proj.
    1.32
    O 1.5
    36%
    Model /90
    1.92
    033%
    130%
    219%
    310%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    60
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    33%
    Model /90
    1.85
    035%
    131%
    218%
    39%
    44%
    52%
    6+1%
  • Matteo Politano

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    1.23
    O 1.5
    34%
    Model /90
    1.56
    035%
    131%
    219%
    39%
    44%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Stanislav Lobotka

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    1.15
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.30
    035%
    133%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    77
    Proj.
    1.14
    O 1.5
    31%
    Model /90
    1.34
    038%
    131%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    1.11
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.29
    037%
    133%
    218%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Morten Frendrup

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    1.11
    O 1.5
    30%
    Model /90
    1.14
    036%
    134%
    219%
    38%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Junior Messias

    FWD · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    41
    Proj.
    0.99
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    2.17
    045%
    130%
    214%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Kevin De Bruyne

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.94
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.31
    042%
    133%
    216%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Antonio Vergara

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    51
    Proj.
    0.93
    O 1.5
    25%
    Model /90
    1.63
    049%
    126%
    214%
    37%
    43%
    51%
    6+0%
  • David Neres Campos

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.91
    O 1.5
    24%
    Model /90
    1.64
    049%
    127%
    213%
    36%
    43%
    51%
    6+1%
  • Ruslan Malinovskiy

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.90
    O 1.5
    23%
    Model /90
    1.32
    045%
    132%
    215%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Giovanni Di Lorenzo

    DEF · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.87
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    0.88
    044%
    134%
    215%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    50
    Proj.
    0.85
    O 1.5
    22%
    Model /90
    1.52
    050%
    128%
    213%
    36%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • Noa Lang

    FWD · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    37
    Proj.
    0.83
    O 1.5
    21%
    Model /90
    2.04
    051%
    128%
    212%
    35%
    42%
    51%
    6+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.82
    O 1.5
    20%
    Model /90
    0.85
    046%
    133%
    214%
    35%
    41%
    5+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards48 playersHighest: Nicola Leali, 0.20 expectedshow

Known defect Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

  • Nicola Leali

    GK · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.20
    O 0.5
    18%
    Model /90
    0.21
    082%
    116%
    22%
    3+0%
  • Sam Beukema

    DEF · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    70
    Proj.
    0.19
    O 0.5
    17%
    Model /90
    0.24
    083%
    115%
    22%
    3+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.18
    O 0.5
    16%
    Model /90
    0.23
    084%
    114%
    22%
    3+0%
  • provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.16
    O 0.5
    15%
    Model /90
    0.17
    085%
    114%
    2+1%
  • Ruslan Malinovskiy

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.15
    O 0.5
    14%
    Model /90
    0.22
    086%
    113%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    81
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.15
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Giovanni Di Lorenzo

    DEF · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    89
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.14
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Morten Thorsby

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    61
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.21
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    69
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.18
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Morten Frendrup

    MID · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    87
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.14
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Amir Rrahmani

    DEF · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    88
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.14
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    78
    Proj.
    0.14
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.16
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Kevin De Bruyne

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    65
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    13%
    Model /90
    0.19
    087%
    112%
    2+1%
  • Stanislav Lobotka

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    79
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.15
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    59
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.20
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Scott McTominay

    MID · Napoli

    provisional
    Mins
    86
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.14
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • Sebastian Otoa

    DEF · Genoa

    provisional
    Mins
    63
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.19
    088%
    111%
    2+1%
  • provisional
    Mins
    71
    Proj.
    0.13
    O 0.5
    12%
    Model /90
    0.16
    088%
    111%
    2+1%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves48 playersHighest: Vanja Milinković Savić, 2.71 expectedshow

What drives it Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.