Serie A · Italy

RomavFiorentina

Monday 24 August at 19:45Stadio Olimpicolineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls39 playersHighest: Donyell Malen, 1.33 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.46
028%
134%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Moise Bioty Kean
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.41
030%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.38
032%
134%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.44
033%
133%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.28
032%
135%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Marin Pongracic
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.41
034%
132%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Jack Harrison
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.63
035%
132%
219%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Albert Gudmundsson
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.61
037%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Roberto Piccoli
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.87
043%
128%
215%
38%
44%
51%
6+1%
Rolando Mandragora
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.42
037%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Pablo Marí Villar
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.21
038%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.18
036%
135%
219%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.50
037%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Daniele Ghilardi
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.01
042%
131%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Obite Evan N'Dicka
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.07
036%
135%
219%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nicolò Fagioli
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.28
038%
133%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mario Hermoso Canseco
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.38
040%
132%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.31
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Marco Brescianini
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.70
046%
128%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel Dybala
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.43
044%
131%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	1.46	82provisional	1.33	38%	18	028% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Moise Bioty KeanFWD	Fiorentina	1.41	82provisional	1.29	36%	58	030% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	1.38	80provisional	1.23	34%	63	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	1.44	77provisional	1.23	34%	67	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	1.28	85provisional	1.21	34%	73	032% 135% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marin PongracicDEF	Fiorentina	1.41	77provisional	1.20	34%	55	034% 132% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jack HarrisonFWD	Fiorentina	1.63	65provisional	1.18	32%	15	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Albert GudmundssonFWD	Fiorentina	1.61	62provisional	1.11	30%	57	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Roberto PiccoliFWD	Fiorentina	1.87	52provisional	1.08	29%	32	043% 128% 215% 38% 44% 51% 6+1%
Rolando MandragoraMID	Fiorentina	1.42	69provisional	1.08	29%	63	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Pablo Marí VillarDEF	Fiorentina	1.21	79provisional	1.07	29%	24	038% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	1.18	82provisional	1.07	29%	30	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	1.50	63provisional	1.06	28%	49	037% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Daniele GhilardiDEF	Roma	2.01	47provisional	1.06	28%	23	042% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Obite Evan N'DickaDEF	Roma	1.07	88provisional	1.05	28%	69	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nicolò FagioliMID	Fiorentina	1.28	74provisional	1.05	28%	48	038% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mario Hermoso CansecoDEF	Roma	1.38	67provisional	1.03	28%	35	040% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Matìas Soulè MalvanoFWD	Roma	1.31	66provisional	0.96	25%	60	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Marco BrescianiniMID	Fiorentina	1.70	51provisional	0.96	26%	17	046% 128% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel DybalaFWD	Roma	1.43	60provisional	0.96	25%	46	044% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles39 playersHighest: Bryan Cristante, 1.46 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.46
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.71
025%
132%
223%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.54
026%
134%
224%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Nicolò Fagioli
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.71
027%
132%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+1%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.52
027%
134%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Pablo Marí Villar
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.52
029%
132%
222%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Niccolò Pisilli
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.50
036%
129%
217%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Rolando Mandragora
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.67
031%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Domilson Cordeiro dos Santos
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.30
028%
135%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Devyne Rensch
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.63
040%
127%
216%
39%
45%
52%
6+1%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.33
029%
135%
222%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Luca Ranieri
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.22
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.39
031%
134%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Marin Pongracic
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.38
034%
133%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Amir Richardson
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
37
Proj.
1.17
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
2.85
038%
131%
216%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Obite Evan N'Dicka
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.15
032%
136%
221%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mario Hermoso Canseco
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.51
036%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Marco Brescianini
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.86
043%
129%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Cher Ndour
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.72
042%
130%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.46
037%
135%
218%
37%
42%
50%
6+0%
Fabiano Parisi
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.66
044%
130%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Daniele Ghilardi
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.82
044%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	1.71	77provisional	1.46	42%	67	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	1.54	82provisional	1.40	41%	30	026% 134% 224% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Nicolò FagioliMID	Fiorentina	1.71	74provisional	1.40	40%	48	027% 132% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	1.52	80provisional	1.35	39%	63	027% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Pablo Marí VillarDEF	Fiorentina	1.52	79provisional	1.34	39%	24	029% 132% 222% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Niccolò PisilliMID	Roma	2.50	47provisional	1.31	35%	53	036% 129% 217% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Rolando MandragoraMID	Fiorentina	1.67	69provisional	1.28	36%	63	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Domilson Cordeiro dos SantosDEF	Fiorentina	1.30	88provisional	1.27	36%	71	028% 135% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Devyne RenschDEF	Roma	2.63	43provisional	1.26	34%	38	040% 127% 216% 39% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	1.33	85provisional	1.26	36%	73	029% 135% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Luca RanieriDEF	Fiorentina	1.39	79provisional	1.22	35%	70	031% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marin PongracicDEF	Fiorentina	1.38	77provisional	1.17	33%	55	034% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Amir RichardsonMID	Fiorentina	2.85	37provisional	1.17	31%	29	038% 131% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Obite Evan N'DickaDEF	Roma	1.15	88provisional	1.13	31%	69	032% 136% 221% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mario Hermoso CansecoDEF	Roma	1.51	67provisional	1.12	31%	35	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Marco BrescianiniMID	Fiorentina	1.86	51provisional	1.05	29%	17	043% 129% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Cher NdourMID	Fiorentina	1.72	54provisional	1.04	28%	42	042% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	1.46	63provisional	1.03	28%	49	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Fabiano ParisiDEF	Fiorentina	1.66	53provisional	0.97	26%	49	044% 130% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Daniele GhilardiDEF	Roma	1.82	47provisional	0.95	25%	23	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots39 playersHighest: Donyell Malen, 2.38 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
2.38
O 1.5
64%
Model /90
2.61
013%
123%
223%
318%
411%
56%
6+6%
Moise Bioty Kean
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.90
O 1.5
53%
Model /90
2.09
020%
127%
223%
315%
48%
54%
6+3%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.86
O 1.5
51%
Model /90
2.54
023%
126%
221%
314%
48%
54%
6+3%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel Dybala
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.81
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.70
026%
126%
219%
313%
48%
54%
6+4%
Jack Harrison
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.85
032%
131%
219%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Albert Gudmundsson
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.93
033%
130%
219%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Stephan El Shaarawy
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
3.25
038%
130%
216%
38%
44%
52%
6+2%
Roberto Piccoli
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
2.05
041%
128%
215%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.33
036%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.24
037%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.55
037%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Riccardo Sottil
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.09
044%
129%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Rolando Mandragora
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.15
045%
132%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Niccolò Pisilli
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.60
051%
128%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nicolò Fagioli
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.96
049%
132%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Christian Kouamé
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
2.15
055%
127%
210%
34%
42%
51%
6+1%
Neil El Aynaoui
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.65
O 1.5
15%
Model /90
1.48
056%
129%
210%
33%
41%
50%
6+0%
Robinio Vaz
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
17
Proj.
0.62
O 1.5
13%
Model /90
3.27
055%
132%
210%
32%
41%
5+0%
Marco Brescianini
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.61
O 1.5
14%
Model /90
1.09
059%
126%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Cher Ndour
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.61
O 1.5
14%
Model /90
1.01
059%
127%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	2.61	82provisional	2.38	64%	18	013% 123% 223% 318% 411% 56% 6+6%
Moise Bioty KeanFWD	Fiorentina	2.09	82provisional	1.90	53%	58	020% 127% 223% 315% 48% 54% 6+3%
Matìas Soulè MalvanoFWD	Roma	2.54	66provisional	1.86	51%	60	023% 126% 221% 314% 48% 54% 6+3%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel DybalaFWD	Roma	2.70	60provisional	1.81	48%	46	026% 126% 219% 313% 48% 54% 6+4%
Jack HarrisonFWD	Fiorentina	1.85	65provisional	1.34	37%	15	032% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Albert GudmundssonFWD	Fiorentina	1.93	62provisional	1.33	37%	57	033% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Stephan El ShaarawyFWD	Roma	3.25	34provisional	1.23	32%	51	038% 130% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+2%
Roberto PiccoliFWD	Fiorentina	2.05	52provisional	1.18	31%	32	041% 128% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	1.33	77provisional	1.13	31%	67	036% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	1.24	80provisional	1.10	30%	63	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	1.55	63provisional	1.10	30%	49	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Riccardo SottilFWD	Fiorentina	2.09	46provisional	1.07	28%	18	044% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Rolando MandragoraMID	Fiorentina	1.15	69provisional	0.88	22%	63	045% 132% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Niccolò PisilliMID	Roma	1.60	47provisional	0.84	21%	53	051% 128% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nicolò FagioliMID	Fiorentina	0.96	74provisional	0.78	19%	48	049% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Christian KouaméFWD	Fiorentina	2.15	32provisional	0.76	18%	20	055% 127% 210% 34% 42% 51% 6+1%
Neil El AynaouiMID	Roma	1.48	40provisional	0.65	15%	25	056% 129% 210% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Robinio VazFWD	Roma	3.27	17provisional	0.62	13%	12	055% 132% 210% 32% 41% 5+0%
Marco BrescianiniMID	Fiorentina	1.09	51provisional	0.61	14%	17	059% 126% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Cher NdourMID	Fiorentina	1.01	54provisional	0.61	14%	42	059% 127% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%

20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target37 playersHighest: Donyell Malen, 0.99 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.99
O 0.5
61%
Model /90
1.09
039%
134%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Moise Bioty Kean
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.73
O 0.5
50%
Model /90
0.81
050%
132%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel Dybala
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.71
O 0.5
46%
Model /90
1.05
054%
129%
212%
34%
41%
5+0%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.65
O 0.5
45%
Model /90
0.89
055%
130%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Albert Gudmundsson
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.55
O 0.5
40%
Model /90
0.80
060%
128%
29%
32%
40%
5+0%
Stephan El Shaarawy
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.49
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
1.28
065%
125%
27%
32%
41%
5+0%
Jack Harrison
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.48
O 0.5
36%
Model /90
0.66
064%
127%
27%
32%
4+0%
Roberto Piccoli
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.41
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
0.70
069%
123%
26%
31%
4+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.37
O 0.5
30%
Model /90
0.52
070%
124%
25%
31%
4+0%
Riccardo Sottil
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.36
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.70
072%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.30
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.34
074%
121%
24%
3+1%
Rolando Mandragora
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
24%
Model /90
0.37
076%
120%
23%
3+0%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.32
077%
120%
23%
3+0%
Niccolò Pisilli
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.47
079%
117%
23%
3+1%
Christian Kouamé
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.67
080%
116%
23%
31%
4+0%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.23
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.26
080%
118%
22%
3+0%
Robinio Vaz
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
17
Proj.
0.23
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
1.22
080%
118%
22%
3+0%
Neil El Aynaoui
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.23
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.52
080%
117%
22%
3+0%
Nicolò Fagioli
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.27
081%
117%
22%
3+0%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.20
083%
115%
22%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	1.09	82provisional	0.99	61%	18	039% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Moise Bioty KeanFWD	Fiorentina	0.81	82provisional	0.73	50%	58	050% 132% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel DybalaFWD	Roma	1.05	60provisional	0.71	46%	46	054% 129% 212% 34% 41% 5+0%
Matìas Soulè MalvanoFWD	Roma	0.89	66provisional	0.65	45%	60	055% 130% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Albert GudmundssonFWD	Fiorentina	0.80	62provisional	0.55	40%	57	060% 128% 29% 32% 40% 5+0%
Stephan El ShaarawyFWD	Roma	1.28	34provisional	0.49	35%	51	065% 125% 27% 32% 41% 5+0%
Jack HarrisonFWD	Fiorentina	0.66	65provisional	0.48	36%	15	064% 127% 27% 32% 4+0%
Roberto PiccoliFWD	Fiorentina	0.70	52provisional	0.41	31%	32	069% 123% 26% 31% 4+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	0.52	63provisional	0.37	30%	49	070% 124% 25% 31% 4+0%
Riccardo SottilFWD	Fiorentina	0.70	46provisional	0.36	28%	18	072% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	0.34	80provisional	0.30	26%	63	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Rolando MandragoraMID	Fiorentina	0.37	69provisional	0.29	24%	63	076% 120% 23% 3+0%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	0.32	77provisional	0.27	23%	67	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Niccolò PisilliMID	Roma	0.47	47provisional	0.25	21%	53	079% 117% 23% 3+1%
Christian KouaméFWD	Fiorentina	0.67	32provisional	0.24	20%	20	080% 116% 23% 31% 4+0%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	0.26	82provisional	0.23	20%	30	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Robinio VazFWD	Roma	1.22	17provisional	0.23	20%	12	080% 118% 22% 3+0%
Neil El AynaouiMID	Roma	0.52	40provisional	0.23	20%	25	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Nicolò FagioliMID	Fiorentina	0.27	74provisional	0.22	19%	48	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	0.20	85provisional	0.19	17%	73	083% 115% 22% 3+0%

20 of 37 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won39 playersHighest: Donyell Malen, 1.65 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.65
O 1.5
47%
Model /90
1.81
023%
130%
223%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Moise Bioty Kean
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.63
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.79
025%
129%
222%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.52
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.07
029%
129%
220%
312%
46%
53%
6+2%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.52
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
1.71
026%
131%
222%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel Dybala
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.51
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
2.25
032%
128%
219%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Jack Harrison
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.78
034%
131%
219%
310%
44%
52%
6+1%
Albert Gudmundsson
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.78
036%
131%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Rolando Mandragora
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.19
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.57
035%
132%
219%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Riccardo Sottil
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
2.30
041%
128%
215%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Roberto Piccoli
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.01
042%
128%
215%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Nicolò Fagioli
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.40
037%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Fabiano Parisi
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.93
042%
128%
216%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.55
038%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Domilson Cordeiro dos Santos
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.02
039%
134%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.04
042%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
0.98
046%
133%
214%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
0.88
046%
134%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Cher Ndour
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.35
051%
129%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Obite Evan N'Dicka
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.79
048%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Stephan El Shaarawy
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
2.01
053%
129%
212%
34%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	1.81	82provisional	1.65	47%	18	023% 130% 223% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Moise Bioty KeanFWD	Fiorentina	1.79	82provisional	1.63	46%	58	025% 129% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Matìas Soulè MalvanoFWD	Roma	2.07	66provisional	1.52	42%	60	029% 129% 220% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	1.71	80provisional	1.52	43%	63	026% 131% 222% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel DybalaFWD	Roma	2.25	60provisional	1.51	41%	46	032% 128% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Jack HarrisonFWD	Fiorentina	1.78	65provisional	1.29	35%	15	034% 131% 219% 310% 44% 52% 6+1%
Albert GudmundssonFWD	Fiorentina	1.78	62provisional	1.23	34%	57	036% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Rolando MandragoraMID	Fiorentina	1.57	69provisional	1.19	33%	63	035% 132% 219% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Riccardo SottilFWD	Fiorentina	2.30	46provisional	1.18	31%	18	041% 128% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Roberto PiccoliFWD	Fiorentina	2.01	52provisional	1.16	30%	32	042% 128% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Nicolò FagioliMID	Fiorentina	1.40	74provisional	1.14	31%	48	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Fabiano ParisiDEF	Fiorentina	1.93	53provisional	1.13	30%	49	042% 128% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	1.55	63provisional	1.09	29%	49	038% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Domilson Cordeiro dos SantosDEF	Fiorentina	1.02	88provisional	1.00	26%	71	039% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	1.04	82provisional	0.94	25%	30	042% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	0.98	77provisional	0.84	21%	67	046% 133% 214% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	0.88	85provisional	0.83	21%	73	046% 134% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Cher NdourMID	Fiorentina	1.35	54provisional	0.81	21%	42	051% 129% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Obite Evan N'DickaDEF	Roma	0.79	88provisional	0.78	19%	69	048% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Stephan El ShaarawyFWD	Roma	2.01	34provisional	0.76	18%	51	053% 129% 212% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards39 playersHighest: Luca Ranieri, 0.18 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Luca Ranieri
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.21
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Marin Pongracic
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.21
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Mario Hermoso Canseco
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.24
084%
114%
21%
3+0%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.18
084%
114%
2+1%
Domilson Cordeiro dos Santos
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.17
084%
114%
2+1%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.19
084%
114%
2+1%
Pablo Marí Villar
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.19
085%
114%
2+1%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.19
085%
113%
2+1%
Rolando Mandragora
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.21
085%
113%
2+1%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.17
086%
113%
2+1%
Moise Bioty Kean
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.17
086%
113%
2+1%
Daniele Ghilardi
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.28
087%
112%
21%
3+0%
Obite Evan N'Dicka
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.15
087%
112%
2+1%
Nicolò Fagioli
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.18
087%
112%
2+1%
Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.15
087%
112%
2+1%
Fabiano Parisi
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.23
087%
111%
2+1%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.19
088%
112%
2+1%
Albert Gudmundsson
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.19
088%
111%
2+1%
Niccolò Pisilli
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.24
088%
111%
2+1%
Jack Harrison
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.17
088%
111%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Luca RanieriDEF	Fiorentina	0.21	79provisional	0.18	17%	70	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Marin PongracicDEF	Fiorentina	0.21	77provisional	0.18	16%	55	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Mario Hermoso CansecoDEF	Roma	0.24	67provisional	0.18	16%	35	084% 114% 21% 3+0%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	0.18	85provisional	0.17	16%	73	084% 114% 2+1%
Domilson Cordeiro dos SantosDEF	Fiorentina	0.17	88provisional	0.17	16%	71	084% 114% 2+1%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	0.19	82provisional	0.17	16%	30	084% 114% 2+1%
Pablo Marí VillarDEF	Fiorentina	0.19	79provisional	0.16	15%	24	085% 114% 2+1%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	0.19	77provisional	0.16	15%	67	085% 113% 2+1%
Rolando MandragoraMID	Fiorentina	0.21	69provisional	0.16	15%	63	085% 113% 2+1%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	0.17	80provisional	0.15	14%	63	086% 113% 2+1%
Moise Bioty KeanFWD	Fiorentina	0.17	82provisional	0.15	14%	58	086% 113% 2+1%
Daniele GhilardiDEF	Roma	0.28	47provisional	0.15	13%	23	087% 112% 21% 3+0%
Obite Evan N'DickaDEF	Roma	0.15	88provisional	0.14	13%	69	087% 112% 2+1%
Nicolò FagioliMID	Fiorentina	0.18	74provisional	0.14	13%	48	087% 112% 2+1%
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	0.15	82provisional	0.14	13%	18	087% 112% 2+1%
Fabiano ParisiDEF	Fiorentina	0.23	53provisional	0.14	13%	49	087% 111% 2+1%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	0.19	63provisional	0.13	12%	49	088% 112% 2+1%
Albert GudmundssonFWD	Fiorentina	0.19	62provisional	0.13	12%	57	088% 111% 2+1%
Niccolò PisilliMID	Roma	0.24	47provisional	0.13	12%	53	088% 111% 2+1%
Jack HarrisonFWD	Fiorentina	0.17	65provisional	0.13	12%	15	088% 111% 2+1%

20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves39 playersHighest: David de Gea Quintana, 3.17 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

David de Gea Quintana
GK · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
3.17
O 2.5
59%
Model /90
3.17
06%
115%
220%
320%
416%
510%
6+12%
Mile Svilar
GK · Roma
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.54
O 2.5
45%
Model /90
2.54
010%
121%
224%
319%
413%
57%
6+6%
Domilson Cordeiro dos Santos
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Moise Bioty Kean
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Pablo Marí Villar
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Marin Pongracic
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Luca Ranieri
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nicolò Fagioli
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Rolando Mandragora
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jack Harrison
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Albert Gudmundsson
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Obite Evan N'Dicka
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Cher Ndour
MID · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Roberto Piccoli
FWD · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Fabiano Parisi
DEF · Fiorentina
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
David de Gea QuintanaGK	Fiorentina	3.17	90provisional	3.17	59%	72	06% 115% 220% 320% 416% 510% 6+12%
Mile SvilarGK	Roma	2.54	90provisional	2.54	45%	76	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Domilson Cordeiro dos SantosDEF	Fiorentina	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	71	0100% 1+0%
Moise Bioty KeanFWD	Fiorentina	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	58	0100% 1+0%
Pablo Marí VillarDEF	Fiorentina	0.00	79provisional	0.00	—	24	0100% 1+0%
Marin PongracicDEF	Fiorentina	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	55	0100% 1+0%
Luca RanieriDEF	Fiorentina	0.00	79provisional	0.00	—	70	0100% 1+0%
Nicolò FagioliMID	Fiorentina	0.00	74provisional	0.00	—	48	0100% 1+0%
Rolando MandragoraMID	Fiorentina	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	63	0100% 1+0%
Jack HarrisonFWD	Fiorentina	0.00	65provisional	0.00	—	15	0100% 1+0%
Albert GudmundssonFWD	Fiorentina	0.00	62provisional	0.00	—	57	0100% 1+0%
Obite Evan N'DickaDEF	Roma	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	69	0100% 1+0%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	73	0100% 1+0%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	30	0100% 1+0%
Cher NdourMID	Fiorentina	0.00	54provisional	0.00	—	42	0100% 1+0%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	63	0100% 1+0%
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	18	0100% 1+0%
Roberto PiccoliFWD	Fiorentina	0.00	52provisional	0.00	—	32	0100% 1+0%
Fabiano ParisiDEF	Fiorentina	0.00	53provisional	0.00	—	49	0100% 1+0%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%

20 of 39 players shown, ranked by projection.