Serie A · Italy

UdinesevComo

Saturday 22 August at 17:30Dacia Arenalineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls48 playersHighest: Nicolò Zaniolo, 1.58 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Nicolò Zaniolo
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.58
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
2.00
025%
130%
223%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Anastasios Douvikas
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.93
036%
131%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Jesper Karlström
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.19
033%
135%
220%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Nicolás Paz Martínez
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.30
035%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Alieu Fadera
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.76
039%
129%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Assane Diao Diaoune
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.40
034%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Sandi Lovric
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.69
037%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Keinan Davis
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.63
040%
131%
217%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Maximo Perrone
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.29
037%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Álvaro Borja Morata Martín
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
2.67
045%
129%
214%
37%
43%
52%
6+1%
Jayden Addai
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.57
041%
133%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jacobo Ramón Naveros
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.04
039%
135%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Adam Buksa
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
2.44
044%
131%
214%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Oumar Solet Bomawoko
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.03
039%
135%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Diego Carlos Santos Silva
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.22
041%
134%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Thomas Kristensen
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.07
040%
134%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Christian Kabasele
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.17
040%
134%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Lucas Da Cunha
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.15
041%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.35
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ivan Smolčić
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.36
044%
131%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò ZanioloFWD	Udinese	2.00	71provisional	1.58	45%	32	025% 130% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Anastasios DouvikasFWD	Como	1.93	56provisional	1.20	33%	51	036% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	1.19	87provisional	1.15	32%	73	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Nicolás Paz MartínezMID	Como	1.30	80provisional	1.15	32%	70	035% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alieu FaderaFWD	Como	1.76	59provisional	1.15	32%	28	039% 129% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Assane Diao DiaouneFWD	Como	1.40	73provisional	1.14	31%	32	034% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sandi LovricMID	Udinese	1.69	59provisional	1.11	30%	42	037% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Keinan DavisFWD	Udinese	1.63	59provisional	1.08	29%	53	040% 131% 217% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Maximo PerroneMID	Como	1.29	74provisional	1.07	29%	62	037% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Álvaro Borja Morata MartínFWD	Como	2.67	36provisional	1.05	27%	26	045% 129% 214% 37% 43% 52% 6+1%
Jayden AddaiFWD	Como	1.57	57provisional	1.00	26%	12	041% 133% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jacobo Ramón NaverosDEF	Como	1.04	86provisional	0.99	26%	32	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Adam BuksaFWD	Udinese	2.44	36provisional	0.99	25%	25	044% 131% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Oumar Solet BomawokoDEF	Udinese	1.03	86provisional	0.98	26%	54	039% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Diego Carlos Santos SilvaDEF	Como	1.22	72provisional	0.97	26%	27	041% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Thomas KristensenDEF	Udinese	1.07	82provisional	0.97	26%	52	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Christian KabaseleDEF	Udinese	1.17	74provisional	0.97	25%	46	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lucas Da CunhaMID	Como	1.15	75provisional	0.95	25%	72	041% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Jurgen EkkelenkampMID	Udinese	1.35	63provisional	0.95	25%	65	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ivan SmolčićDEF	Como	1.36	62provisional	0.94	25%	37	044% 131% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles48 playersHighest: Nicolás Paz Martínez, 1.70 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Nicolás Paz Martínez
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.70
O 1.5
50%
Model /90
1.92
021%
129%
225%
315%
47%
53%
6+1%
Oumar Solet Bomawoko
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.57
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.64
022%
132%
225%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Jesper Karlström
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.54
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.60
022%
133%
225%
313%
45%
52%
6+1%
Lucas Da Cunha
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.49
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
1.80
025%
132%
223%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Jacobo Ramón Naveros
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
1.49
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.56
023%
133%
224%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Maximo Perrone
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.46
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.77
025%
132%
223%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Alberto Dossena
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
1.44
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.63
026%
132%
223%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Álex Valle Gómez
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.75
030%
130%
222%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Ignace Van Der Brempt
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.22
035%
127%
219%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Sandi Lovric
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.01
031%
132%
221%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Kingsley Ehizibue
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.77
033%
130%
220%
311%
44%
51%
6+1%
Alessandro Zanoli
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.72
030%
133%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Maxence Caqueret
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.14
032%
132%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Thomas Kristensen
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.28
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.41
030%
134%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Hassane Kamara
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.64
031%
133%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Edoardo Goldaniga
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.51
033%
130%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Christian Kabasele
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.52
030%
134%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Alberto Moreno Pérez
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.63
032%
132%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Diego Carlos Santos Silva
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.56
031%
134%
221%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Jakub Piotrowski
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.16
035%
131%
219%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nicolás Paz MartínezMID	Como	1.92	80provisional	1.70	50%	70	021% 129% 225% 315% 47% 53% 6+1%
Oumar Solet BomawokoDEF	Udinese	1.64	86provisional	1.57	46%	54	022% 132% 225% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	1.60	87provisional	1.54	45%	73	022% 133% 225% 313% 45% 52% 6+1%
Lucas Da CunhaMID	Como	1.80	75provisional	1.49	43%	72	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jacobo Ramón NaverosDEF	Como	1.56	86provisional	1.49	44%	32	023% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Maximo PerroneMID	Como	1.77	74provisional	1.46	42%	62	025% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Alberto DossenaDEF	Como	1.63	79provisional	1.44	42%	23	026% 132% 223% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Álex Valle GómezDEF	Como	1.75	71provisional	1.38	40%	43	030% 130% 222% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Ignace Van Der BremptDEF	Como	2.22	55provisional	1.35	38%	40	035% 127% 219% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sandi LovricMID	Udinese	2.01	59provisional	1.32	38%	42	031% 132% 221% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Kingsley EhizibueDEF	Udinese	1.77	66provisional	1.31	38%	65	033% 130% 220% 311% 44% 51% 6+1%
Alessandro ZanoliDEF	Udinese	1.72	68provisional	1.30	37%	19	030% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Maxence CaqueretMID	Como	2.14	54provisional	1.28	36%	48	032% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Thomas KristensenDEF	Udinese	1.41	82provisional	1.28	37%	52	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Hassane KamaraDEF	Udinese	1.64	69provisional	1.26	36%	56	031% 133% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Edoardo GoldanigaDEF	Como	1.51	75provisional	1.26	36%	34	033% 130% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Christian KabaseleDEF	Udinese	1.52	74provisional	1.26	36%	46	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Alberto Moreno PérezDEF	Como	1.63	69provisional	1.25	36%	43	032% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Diego Carlos Santos SilvaDEF	Como	1.56	72provisional	1.25	35%	27	031% 134% 221% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jakub PiotrowskiMID	Udinese	2.16	52provisional	1.24	34%	33	035% 131% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots48 playersHighest: Nicolò Zaniolo, 1.74 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Nicolò Zaniolo
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.74
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.20
024%
128%
222%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Assane Diao Diaoune
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.71
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.10
023%
129%
223%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Keinan Davis
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.22
032%
128%
219%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Nicolás Paz Martínez
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.41
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.59
029%
131%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Jayden Addai
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.19
031%
131%
219%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Alieu Fadera
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.10
036%
127%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Anastasios Douvikas
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.36
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.19
033%
130%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Jesús Rodríguez Caraballo
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.36
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.18
033%
130%
219%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Sandi Lovric
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.47
043%
132%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Adam Buksa
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
2.36
046%
131%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+1%
Álvaro Borja Morata Martín
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.38
049%
128%
213%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Vakoun Issouf Bayo
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
2.66
049%
128%
212%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Lucas Da Cunha
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.11
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jesper Karlström
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
0.94
043%
134%
216%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.18
048%
131%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Maximo Perrone
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.97
048%
132%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Martin Baturina
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.28
052%
129%
212%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
29
Proj.
0.76
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
2.41
054%
128%
211%
34%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jakub Piotrowski
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.27
053%
130%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Idrissa Gueye
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
21
Proj.
0.71
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
2.99
054%
130%
210%
33%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò ZanioloFWD	Udinese	2.20	71provisional	1.74	48%	32	024% 128% 222% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Assane Diao DiaouneFWD	Como	2.10	73provisional	1.71	48%	32	023% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Keinan DavisFWD	Udinese	2.22	59provisional	1.47	40%	53	032% 128% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Nicolás Paz MartínezMID	Como	1.59	80provisional	1.41	40%	70	029% 131% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jayden AddaiFWD	Como	2.19	57provisional	1.40	38%	12	031% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Alieu FaderaFWD	Como	2.10	59provisional	1.37	38%	28	036% 127% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Anastasios DouvikasFWD	Como	2.19	56provisional	1.36	37%	51	033% 130% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Jesús Rodríguez CaraballoFWD	Como	2.18	56provisional	1.36	37%	31	033% 130% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Sandi LovricMID	Udinese	1.47	59provisional	0.97	25%	42	043% 132% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adam BuksaFWD	Udinese	2.36	36provisional	0.95	24%	25	046% 131% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+1%
Álvaro Borja Morata MartínFWD	Como	2.38	36provisional	0.94	23%	26	049% 128% 213% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Vakoun Issouf BayoFWD	Udinese	2.66	32provisional	0.94	23%	15	049% 128% 212% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Lucas Da CunhaMID	Como	1.11	75provisional	0.92	24%	72	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	0.94	87provisional	0.91	23%	73	043% 134% 216% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Jurgen EkkelenkampMID	Udinese	1.18	63provisional	0.82	21%	65	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Maximo PerroneMID	Como	0.97	74provisional	0.80	20%	62	048% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Martin BaturinaMID	Como	1.28	55provisional	0.78	19%	29	052% 129% 212% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Nicolas-Gerrit KühnFWD	Como	2.41	29provisional	0.76	18%	23	054% 128% 211% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jakub PiotrowskiMID	Udinese	1.27	52provisional	0.73	18%	33	053% 130% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Idrissa GueyeFWD	Udinese	2.99	21provisional	0.71	16%	19	054% 130% 210% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target45 playersHighest: Assane Diao Diaoune, 0.66 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Assane Diao Diaoune
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.66
O 0.5
46%
Model /90
0.81
054%
132%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Keinan Davis
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.64
O 0.5
43%
Model /90
0.97
057%
129%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Nicolò Zaniolo
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.57
O 0.5
42%
Model /90
0.72
058%
129%
29%
32%
4+1%
Anastasios Douvikas
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.56
O 0.5
40%
Model /90
0.91
060%
128%
29%
32%
41%
5+0%
Jayden Addai
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
0.55
O 0.5
40%
Model /90
0.86
060%
128%
29%
32%
40%
5+0%
Nicolás Paz Martínez
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.52
O 0.5
39%
Model /90
0.58
061%
129%
28%
32%
4+0%
Alieu Fadera
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.48
O 0.5
35%
Model /90
0.73
065%
125%
28%
32%
4+0%
Jesús Rodríguez Caraballo
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.43
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.69
067%
125%
26%
31%
4+0%
Adam Buksa
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.38
O 0.5
29%
Model /90
0.94
071%
123%
25%
31%
4+0%
Álvaro Borja Morata Martín
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.86
074%
120%
25%
31%
4+0%
Lucas Da Cunha
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.33
O 0.5
27%
Model /90
0.40
073%
122%
24%
3+1%
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.30
O 0.5
25%
Model /90
0.43
075%
120%
24%
3+1%
Vakoun Issouf Bayo
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
0.29
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.83
077%
118%
24%
31%
4+0%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
29
Proj.
0.28
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.89
077%
118%
24%
31%
4+0%
Maximo Perrone
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.33
077%
120%
23%
3+0%
Sandi Lovric
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.40
077%
119%
23%
3+0%
Idrissa Gueye
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
21
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
1.09
079%
118%
23%
31%
4+0%
Martin Baturina
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.40
079%
117%
23%
3+0%
Jesper Karlström
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.21
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.22
081%
117%
22%
3+0%
Jakub Piotrowski
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.36
082%
115%
22%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Assane Diao DiaouneFWD	Como	0.81	73provisional	0.66	46%	32	054% 132% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Keinan DavisFWD	Udinese	0.97	59provisional	0.64	43%	53	057% 129% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Nicolò ZanioloFWD	Udinese	0.72	71provisional	0.57	42%	32	058% 129% 29% 32% 4+1%
Anastasios DouvikasFWD	Como	0.91	56provisional	0.56	40%	51	060% 128% 29% 32% 41% 5+0%
Jayden AddaiFWD	Como	0.86	57provisional	0.55	40%	12	060% 128% 29% 32% 40% 5+0%
Nicolás Paz MartínezMID	Como	0.58	80provisional	0.52	39%	70	061% 129% 28% 32% 4+0%
Alieu FaderaFWD	Como	0.73	59provisional	0.48	35%	28	065% 125% 28% 32% 4+0%
Jesús Rodríguez CaraballoFWD	Como	0.69	56provisional	0.43	33%	31	067% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Adam BuksaFWD	Udinese	0.94	36provisional	0.38	29%	25	071% 123% 25% 31% 4+0%
Álvaro Borja Morata MartínFWD	Como	0.86	36provisional	0.34	26%	26	074% 120% 25% 31% 4+0%
Lucas Da CunhaMID	Como	0.40	75provisional	0.33	27%	72	073% 122% 24% 3+1%
Jurgen EkkelenkampMID	Udinese	0.43	63provisional	0.30	25%	65	075% 120% 24% 3+1%
Vakoun Issouf BayoFWD	Udinese	0.83	32provisional	0.29	23%	15	077% 118% 24% 31% 4+0%
Nicolas-Gerrit KühnFWD	Como	0.89	29provisional	0.28	23%	23	077% 118% 24% 31% 4+0%
Maximo PerroneMID	Como	0.33	74provisional	0.27	23%	62	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Sandi LovricMID	Udinese	0.40	59provisional	0.26	23%	42	077% 119% 23% 3+0%
Idrissa GueyeFWD	Udinese	1.09	21provisional	0.26	21%	19	079% 118% 23% 31% 4+0%
Martin BaturinaMID	Como	0.40	55provisional	0.24	21%	29	079% 117% 23% 3+0%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	0.22	87provisional	0.21	19%	73	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Jakub PiotrowskiMID	Udinese	0.36	52provisional	0.20	18%	33	082% 115% 22% 3+0%

20 of 45 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won48 playersHighest: Nicolò Zaniolo, 2.10 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Nicolò Zaniolo
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
2.10
O 1.5
57%
Model /90
2.66
019%
125%
222%
315%
49%
55%
6+5%
Assane Diao Diaoune
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
1.81
O 1.5
50%
Model /90
2.23
021%
128%
223%
314%
47%
54%
6+3%
Alieu Fadera
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.18
035%
126%
218%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Keinan Davis
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.05
034%
129%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Álvaro Borja Morata Martín
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
3.34
039%
128%
215%
38%
45%
53%
6+3%
Jayden Addai
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
57
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.02
034%
131%
219%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Jesús Rodríguez Caraballo
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.03
035%
130%
218%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Anastasios Douvikas
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.22
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.96
037%
130%
218%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Nicolás Paz Martínez
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.30
036%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Jesper Karlström
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.16
036%
134%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Sandi Lovric
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.60
040%
131%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Vakoun Issouf Bayo
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
32
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
2.96
046%
129%
213%
36%
43%
52%
6+1%
Martin Baturina
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
55
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.65
044%
129%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Lennon Miller
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
41
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
2.17
046%
129%
214%
36%
43%
51%
6+1%
Lucas Da Cunha
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.19
041%
133%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Maximo Perrone
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.16
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jakub Piotrowski
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
52
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.57
047%
130%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Adam Buksa
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
2.13
049%
130%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+1%
Maxence Caqueret
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.43
047%
131%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Kingsley Ehizibue
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.14
049%
130%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Nicolò ZanioloFWD	Udinese	2.66	71provisional	2.10	57%	32	019% 125% 222% 315% 49% 55% 6+5%
Assane Diao DiaouneFWD	Como	2.23	73provisional	1.81	50%	32	021% 128% 223% 314% 47% 54% 6+3%
Alieu FaderaFWD	Como	2.18	59provisional	1.43	39%	28	035% 126% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Keinan DavisFWD	Udinese	2.05	59provisional	1.35	37%	53	034% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Álvaro Borja Morata MartínFWD	Como	3.34	36provisional	1.32	33%	26	039% 128% 215% 38% 45% 53% 6+3%
Jayden AddaiFWD	Como	2.02	57provisional	1.29	35%	12	034% 131% 219% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Jesús Rodríguez CaraballoFWD	Como	2.03	56provisional	1.26	34%	31	035% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Anastasios DouvikasFWD	Como	1.96	56provisional	1.22	33%	51	037% 130% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Nicolás Paz MartínezMID	Como	1.30	80provisional	1.15	32%	70	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	1.16	87provisional	1.12	31%	73	036% 134% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sandi LovricMID	Udinese	1.60	59provisional	1.05	28%	42	040% 131% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Vakoun Issouf BayoFWD	Udinese	2.96	32provisional	1.04	25%	15	046% 129% 213% 36% 43% 52% 6+1%
Martin BaturinaMID	Como	1.65	55provisional	1.01	27%	29	044% 129% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Lennon MillerMID	Udinese	2.17	41provisional	1.00	25%	24	046% 129% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+1%
Lucas Da CunhaMID	Como	1.19	75provisional	0.99	26%	72	041% 133% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Maximo PerroneMID	Como	1.16	74provisional	0.96	25%	62	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jakub PiotrowskiMID	Udinese	1.57	52provisional	0.90	23%	33	047% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Adam BuksaFWD	Udinese	2.13	36provisional	0.86	21%	25	049% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%
Maxence CaqueretMID	Como	1.43	54provisional	0.86	22%	48	047% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kingsley EhizibueDEF	Udinese	1.14	66provisional	0.84	22%	65	049% 130% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards48 playersHighest: Jacobo Ramón Naveros, 0.19 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Jacobo Ramón Naveros
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.20
083%
116%
22%
3+0%
Nicolò Zaniolo
FWD · Udinese
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.18
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.23
084%
115%
21%
3+0%
Jesper Karlström
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.18
084%
114%
2+1%
Maximo Perrone
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.20
085%
114%
2+1%
Ivan Smolčić
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.24
085%
113%
21%
3+0%
Edoardo Goldaniga
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.19
085%
113%
2+1%
Diego Carlos Santos Silva
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.20
086%
113%
2+1%
Hassane Kamara
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.20
086%
113%
2+1%
Thomas Kristensen
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.16
087%
112%
2+1%
Nicolás Paz Martínez
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.16
087%
112%
2+1%
Sandi Lovric
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.21
087%
112%
2+1%
Christian Kabasele
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Oumar Solet Bomawoko
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.14
087%
112%
2+1%
Marc-Oliver Kempf
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Lucas Da Cunha
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
111%
2+1%
Alessandro Zanoli
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
68
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.17
088%
111%
2+1%
Kingsley Ehizibue
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.17
088%
111%
2+1%
Álvaro Borja Morata Martín
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.32
089%
110%
2+1%
Alberto Moreno Pérez
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
111%
2+1%
Alberto Dossena
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
111%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Jacobo Ramón NaverosDEF	Como	0.20	86provisional	0.19	17%	32	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
Nicolò ZanioloFWD	Udinese	0.23	71provisional	0.18	16%	32	084% 115% 21% 3+0%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	0.18	87provisional	0.17	16%	73	084% 114% 2+1%
Maximo PerroneMID	Como	0.20	74provisional	0.16	15%	62	085% 114% 2+1%
Ivan SmolčićDEF	Como	0.24	62provisional	0.16	15%	37	085% 113% 21% 3+0%
Edoardo GoldanigaDEF	Como	0.19	75provisional	0.16	15%	34	085% 113% 2+1%
Diego Carlos Santos SilvaDEF	Como	0.20	72provisional	0.16	14%	27	086% 113% 2+1%
Hassane KamaraDEF	Udinese	0.20	69provisional	0.16	14%	56	086% 113% 2+1%
Thomas KristensenDEF	Udinese	0.16	82provisional	0.15	13%	52	087% 112% 2+1%
Nicolás Paz MartínezMID	Como	0.16	80provisional	0.14	13%	70	087% 112% 2+1%
Sandi LovricMID	Udinese	0.21	59provisional	0.14	13%	42	087% 112% 2+1%
Christian KabaseleDEF	Udinese	0.17	74provisional	0.14	13%	46	087% 112% 2+1%
Oumar Solet BomawokoDEF	Udinese	0.14	86provisional	0.13	13%	54	087% 112% 2+1%
Marc-Oliver KempfDEF	Como	0.15	76provisional	0.13	12%	65	088% 111% 2+1%
Lucas Da CunhaMID	Como	0.16	75provisional	0.13	12%	72	088% 111% 2+1%
Alessandro ZanoliDEF	Udinese	0.17	68provisional	0.13	12%	19	088% 111% 2+1%
Kingsley EhizibueDEF	Udinese	0.17	66provisional	0.13	12%	65	088% 111% 2+1%
Álvaro Borja Morata MartínFWD	Como	0.32	36provisional	0.13	11%	26	089% 110% 2+1%
Alberto Moreno PérezDEF	Como	0.16	69provisional	0.13	12%	43	088% 111% 2+1%
Alberto DossenaDEF	Como	0.14	79provisional	0.13	12%	23	088% 111% 2+1%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves48 playersHighest: Jean Butez, 2.79 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Jean Butez
GK · Como
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
2.79
O 2.5
51%
Model /90
2.81
08%
118%
223%
320%
414%
59%
6+8%
Maduka Okoye
GK · Udinese
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
2.59
O 2.5
47%
Model /90
2.64
09%
120%
224%
320%
413%
57%
6+7%
Razvan Sava
GK · Udinese
provisional
Mins
89
Proj.
2.51
O 2.5
45%
Model /90
2.53
010%
121%
224%
319%
413%
57%
6+6%
Jacobo Ramón Naveros
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nicolás Paz Martínez
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Alberto Dossena
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
79
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Maximo Perrone
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lucas Da Cunha
MID · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Edoardo Goldaniga
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Marc-Oliver Kempf
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Diego Carlos Santos Silva
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Álex Valle Gómez
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Assane Diao Diaoune
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
73
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Alberto Moreno Pérez
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jesper Karlström
MID · Udinese
provisional
Mins
87
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Oumar Solet Bomawoko
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
86
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ivan Smolčić
DEF · Como
provisional
Mins
62
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Thomas Kristensen
DEF · Udinese
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Alieu Fadera
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jesús Rodríguez Caraballo
FWD · Como
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Jean ButezGK	Como	2.81	89provisional	2.79	51%	57	08% 118% 223% 320% 414% 59% 6+8%
Maduka OkoyeGK	Udinese	2.64	88provisional	2.59	47%	55	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%
Razvan SavaGK	Udinese	2.53	89provisional	2.51	45%	19	010% 121% 224% 319% 413% 57% 6+6%
Jacobo Ramón NaverosDEF	Como	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	32	0100% 1+0%
Nicolás Paz MartínezMID	Como	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	70	0100% 1+0%
Alberto DossenaDEF	Como	0.00	79provisional	0.00	—	23	0100% 1+0%
Maximo PerroneMID	Como	0.00	74provisional	0.00	—	62	0100% 1+0%
Lucas Da CunhaMID	Como	0.00	75provisional	0.00	—	72	0100% 1+0%
Edoardo GoldanigaDEF	Como	0.00	75provisional	0.00	—	34	0100% 1+0%
Marc-Oliver KempfDEF	Como	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	65	0100% 1+0%
Diego Carlos Santos SilvaDEF	Como	0.00	72provisional	0.00	—	27	0100% 1+0%
Álex Valle GómezDEF	Como	0.00	71provisional	0.00	—	43	0100% 1+0%
Assane Diao DiaouneFWD	Como	0.00	73provisional	0.00	—	32	0100% 1+0%
Alberto Moreno PérezDEF	Como	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	43	0100% 1+0%
Jesper KarlströmMID	Udinese	0.00	87provisional	0.00	—	73	0100% 1+0%
Oumar Solet BomawokoDEF	Udinese	0.00	86provisional	0.00	—	54	0100% 1+0%
Ivan SmolčićDEF	Como	0.00	62provisional	0.00	—	37	0100% 1+0%
Thomas KristensenDEF	Udinese	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	52	0100% 1+0%
Alieu FaderaFWD	Como	0.00	59provisional	0.00	—	28	0100% 1+0%
Jesús Rodríguez CaraballoFWD	Como	0.00	56provisional	0.00	—	31	0100% 1+0%

20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.