Serie A · Italy

CagliarivInter

Sunday 30 August at 19:45Sardegna Arenalineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls41 playersHighest: Lautaro Javier Martínez, 1.31 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Lautaro Javier Martínez
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.31
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.52
029%
133%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Marcus Thuram
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.63
033%
132%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Federico Dimarco
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.52
033%
134%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Sebastiano Esposito
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.37
034%
135%
220%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.36
036%
134%
219%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Alessandro Bastoni
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.26
036%
135%
219%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nicolò Barella
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.06
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.27
037%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.46
040%
132%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Manuel Obafemi Akanji
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.06
039%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Michel Ndary Adopo
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.18
040%
134%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Gabriele Zappa
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.27
043%
131%
216%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Gennaro Borrelli
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.84
045%
130%
215%
36%
43%
51%
6+0%
Francesco Pio Esposito
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.93
045%
130%
214%
36%
43%
51%
6+0%
Yerry Fernando Mina González
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.02
040%
135%
217%
36%
42%
5+0%
Benjamin Pavard
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.20
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Petar Sučić
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.57
047%
128%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Sebastiano Luperto
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
0.91
042%
135%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Zito André Sebastiao Luvumbo
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.60
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Juan Martín Rodríguez Camejo
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.04
043%
134%
216%
35%
41%
5+0%
Alessandro Deiola
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.38
046%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lautaro Javier MartínezFWD	Inter	1.52	78provisional	1.31	37%	61	029% 133% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Marcus ThuramFWD	Inter	1.63	69provisional	1.25	35%	61	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Federico DimarcoDEF	Inter	1.52	72provisional	1.21	34%	68	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sebastiano EspositoFWD	Cagliari	1.37	75provisional	1.15	32%	36	034% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID	Inter	1.36	71provisional	1.08	29%	51	036% 134% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alessandro BastoniDEF	Inter	1.26	77provisional	1.07	29%	61	036% 135% 219% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nicolò BarellaMID	Inter	1.27	75provisional	1.06	28%	67	037% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID	Inter	1.46	64provisional	1.05	28%	62	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Manuel Obafemi AkanjiDEF	Inter	1.06	85provisional	1.00	27%	33	039% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Michel Ndary AdopoMID	Cagliari	1.18	75provisional	0.98	26%	73	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gabriele ZappaDEF	Cagliari	1.27	69provisional	0.96	26%	68	043% 131% 216% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Gennaro BorrelliFWD	Cagliari	1.84	47provisional	0.96	25%	27	045% 130% 215% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Francesco Pio EspositoFWD	Inter	1.93	45provisional	0.96	25%	35	045% 130% 214% 36% 43% 51% 6+0%
Yerry Fernando Mina GonzálezDEF	Cagliari	1.02	83provisional	0.94	24%	57	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 5+0%
Benjamin PavardDEF	Inter	1.20	70provisional	0.93	24%	24	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Petar SučićMID	Inter	1.57	53provisional	0.92	24%	34	047% 128% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Sebastiano LupertoDEF	Cagliari	0.91	90provisional	0.91	23%	55	042% 135% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Zito André Sebastiao LuvumboFWD	Cagliari	1.60	51provisional	0.90	23%	38	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Juan Martín Rodríguez CamejoDEF	Cagliari	1.04	77provisional	0.90	23%	17	043% 134% 216% 35% 41% 5+0%
Alessandro DeiolaMID	Cagliari	1.38	59provisional	0.90	23%	49	046% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles41 playersHighest: Stefan de Vrij, 1.46 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Stefan de Vrij
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
1.46
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
2.03
030%
128%
221%
312%
46%
52%
6+1%
Federico Dimarco
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
1.46
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.83
025%
133%
224%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Nicolò Barella
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.72
026%
133%
223%
312%
44%
51%
6+0%
Manuel Obafemi Akanji
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.43
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.50
026%
133%
224%
312%
44%
51%
6+0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.37
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.73
027%
134%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Carlos Augusto Zopalato Neves
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.24
035%
128%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Alessandro Bastoni
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.32
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
1.56
027%
134%
223%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Petar Sučić
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.23
036%
127%
218%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Michel Ndary Adopo
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.52
030%
134%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Yerry Fernando Mina González
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.37
028%
136%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Juan Martín Rodríguez Camejo
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
1.47
030%
134%
222%
310%
43%
51%
6+0%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.74
033%
132%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Adam Obert
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.24
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.62
033%
132%
221%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Benjamin Pavard
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
1.22
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.58
032%
133%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Sebastiano Luperto
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.18
031%
136%
221%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
José Pedro da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
1.14
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.38
035%
134%
220%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Francesco Acerbi
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.33
036%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Matteo Prati
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.70
037%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Yann Aurel Bisseck
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.37
036%
134%
219%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%
Alessandro Deiola
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.66
039%
132%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Stefan de VrijDEF	Inter	2.03	65provisional	1.46	42%	37	030% 128% 221% 312% 46% 52% 6+1%
Federico DimarcoDEF	Inter	1.83	72provisional	1.46	42%	68	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Nicolò BarellaMID	Inter	1.72	75provisional	1.43	41%	67	026% 133% 223% 312% 44% 51% 6+0%
Manuel Obafemi AkanjiDEF	Inter	1.50	85provisional	1.43	42%	33	026% 133% 224% 312% 44% 51% 6+0%
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID	Inter	1.73	71provisional	1.37	40%	51	027% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Carlos Augusto Zopalato NevesDEF	Inter	2.24	54provisional	1.33	37%	63	035% 128% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Alessandro BastoniDEF	Inter	1.56	77provisional	1.32	38%	61	027% 134% 223% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Petar SučićMID	Inter	2.23	53provisional	1.30	37%	34	036% 127% 218% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Michel Ndary AdopoMID	Cagliari	1.52	75provisional	1.27	36%	73	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Yerry Fernando Mina GonzálezDEF	Cagliari	1.37	83provisional	1.27	36%	57	028% 136% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Juan Martín Rodríguez CamejoDEF	Cagliari	1.47	77provisional	1.26	36%	17	030% 134% 222% 310% 43% 51% 6+0%
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID	Inter	1.74	64provisional	1.24	35%	62	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Adam ObertDEF	Cagliari	1.62	69provisional	1.24	35%	56	033% 132% 221% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Benjamin PavardDEF	Inter	1.58	70provisional	1.22	35%	24	032% 133% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Sebastiano LupertoDEF	Cagliari	1.18	90provisional	1.18	33%	55	031% 136% 221% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
José Pedro da Silva Figueiredo FreitasDEF	Cagliari	1.38	74provisional	1.14	32%	23	035% 134% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Francesco AcerbiDEF	Inter	1.33	75provisional	1.11	31%	41	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Matteo PratiMID	Cagliari	1.70	58provisional	1.09	30%	32	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Yann Aurel BisseckDEF	Inter	1.37	71provisional	1.09	30%	50	036% 134% 219% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alessandro DeiolaMID	Cagliari	1.66	59provisional	1.08	30%	49	039% 132% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots41 playersHighest: Lautaro Javier Martínez, 1.95 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Lautaro Javier Martínez
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.95
O 1.5
54%
Model /90
2.25
019%
127%
223%
315%
49%
54%
6+3%
Sebastiano Esposito
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.75
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
2.10
022%
129%
223%
314%
47%
53%
6+2%
Marcus Thuram
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.72
O 1.5
48%
Model /90
2.25
024%
128%
221%
313%
47%
53%
6+2%
Zito André Sebastiao Luvumbo
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
2.25
036%
130%
217%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Gennaro Borrelli
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
2.32
039%
129%
216%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Francesco Pio Esposito
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
1.16
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.34
040%
129%
216%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Semih Kılıçsoy
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
44
Proj.
1.15
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
2.34
043%
127%
215%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Nicolò Barella
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.13
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
1.36
036%
133%
219%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Mattia Felici
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
1.09
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.35
041%
130%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
1.04
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.32
039%
133%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Ange-Yoan Bonny
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.90
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
2.37
048%
129%
213%
36%
42%
51%
6+1%
Michel Ndary Adopo
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.05
045%
133%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Federico Dimarco
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.86
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.08
045%
133%
215%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.17
048%
131%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Alessandro Deiola
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.25
050%
130%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Matteo Prati
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.78
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
1.21
050%
131%
213%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Piotr Zieliński
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
18%
Model /90
1.30
054%
128%
211%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Davide Frattesi
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.71
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.86
057%
127%
210%
34%
42%
51%
6+0%
Luis Henrique Tomaz de Lima
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.69
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
1.15
055%
129%
211%
34%
41%
5+0%
Petar Sučić
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.66
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
1.13
057%
127%
211%
34%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lautaro Javier MartínezFWD	Inter	2.25	78provisional	1.95	54%	61	019% 127% 223% 315% 49% 54% 6+3%
Sebastiano EspositoFWD	Cagliari	2.10	75provisional	1.75	49%	36	022% 129% 223% 314% 47% 53% 6+2%
Marcus ThuramFWD	Inter	2.25	69provisional	1.72	48%	61	024% 128% 221% 313% 47% 53% 6+2%
Zito André Sebastiao LuvumboFWD	Cagliari	2.25	51provisional	1.27	34%	38	036% 130% 217% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Gennaro BorrelliFWD	Cagliari	2.32	47provisional	1.21	32%	27	039% 129% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Francesco Pio EspositoFWD	Inter	2.34	45provisional	1.16	30%	35	040% 129% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Semih KılıçsoyFWD	Cagliari	2.34	44provisional	1.15	30%	22	043% 127% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Nicolò BarellaMID	Inter	1.36	75provisional	1.13	31%	67	036% 133% 219% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Mattia FeliciFWD	Cagliari	2.35	42provisional	1.09	28%	32	041% 130% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID	Inter	1.32	71provisional	1.04	28%	51	039% 133% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Ange-Yoan BonnyFWD	Inter	2.37	34provisional	0.90	22%	33	048% 129% 213% 36% 42% 51% 6+1%
Michel Ndary AdopoMID	Cagliari	1.05	75provisional	0.88	22%	73	045% 133% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Federico DimarcoDEF	Inter	1.08	72provisional	0.86	22%	68	045% 133% 215% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID	Inter	1.17	64provisional	0.84	21%	62	048% 131% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Alessandro DeiolaMID	Cagliari	1.25	59provisional	0.81	20%	49	050% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Matteo PratiMID	Cagliari	1.21	58provisional	0.78	19%	32	050% 131% 213% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Piotr ZielińskiMID	Inter	1.30	50provisional	0.73	18%	60	054% 128% 211% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Davide FrattesiMID	Inter	1.86	34provisional	0.71	17%	50	057% 127% 210% 34% 42% 51% 6+0%
Luis Henrique Tomaz de LimaMID	Inter	1.15	54provisional	0.69	16%	30	055% 129% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Petar SučićMID	Inter	1.13	53provisional	0.66	16%	34	057% 127% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target38 playersHighest: Lautaro Javier Martínez, 0.73 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Lautaro Javier Martínez
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.73
O 0.5
50%
Model /90
0.85
050%
133%
213%
34%
41%
5+0%
Marcus Thuram
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.68
O 0.5
47%
Model /90
0.89
053%
131%
211%
33%
41%
5+0%
Sebastiano Esposito
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.56
O 0.5
41%
Model /90
0.67
059%
130%
29%
32%
4+0%
Mattia Felici
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.51
O 0.5
37%
Model /90
1.11
063%
126%
28%
32%
41%
5+0%
Gennaro Borrelli
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.47
O 0.5
34%
Model /90
0.89
066%
125%
27%
32%
4+1%
Semih Kılıçsoy
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
44
Proj.
0.45
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.92
067%
123%
27%
32%
40%
5+0%
Francesco Pio Esposito
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
0.45
O 0.5
33%
Model /90
0.91
067%
124%
27%
32%
40%
5+0%
Zito André Sebastiao Luvumbo
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.42
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.75
068%
124%
26%
31%
4+0%
Ange-Yoan Bonny
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.36
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.95
072%
121%
25%
31%
4+0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.34
O 0.5
28%
Model /90
0.43
072%
123%
24%
3+1%
Federico Dimarco
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.31
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.38
074%
121%
24%
3+1%
Michel Ndary Adopo
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.33
077%
120%
23%
3+0%
Alessandro Deiola
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.39
078%
118%
23%
3+0%
Nicolò Barella
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.30
078%
119%
23%
3+0%
Luis Henrique Tomaz de Lima
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.40
080%
117%
23%
3+0%
Piotr Zieliński
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.24
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.43
080%
117%
23%
3+0%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.31
081%
117%
22%
3+0%
Davide Frattesi
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.54
083%
114%
22%
3+0%
Leonardo Pavoletti
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
17
Proj.
0.20
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
1.05
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Petar Sučić
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.33
083%
115%
22%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Lautaro Javier MartínezFWD	Inter	0.85	78provisional	0.73	50%	61	050% 133% 213% 34% 41% 5+0%
Marcus ThuramFWD	Inter	0.89	69provisional	0.68	47%	61	053% 131% 211% 33% 41% 5+0%
Sebastiano EspositoFWD	Cagliari	0.67	75provisional	0.56	41%	36	059% 130% 29% 32% 4+0%
Mattia FeliciFWD	Cagliari	1.11	42provisional	0.51	37%	32	063% 126% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Gennaro BorrelliFWD	Cagliari	0.89	47provisional	0.47	34%	27	066% 125% 27% 32% 4+1%
Semih KılıçsoyFWD	Cagliari	0.92	44provisional	0.45	33%	22	067% 123% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Francesco Pio EspositoFWD	Inter	0.91	45provisional	0.45	33%	35	067% 124% 27% 32% 40% 5+0%
Zito André Sebastiao LuvumboFWD	Cagliari	0.75	51provisional	0.42	32%	38	068% 124% 26% 31% 4+0%
Ange-Yoan BonnyFWD	Inter	0.95	34provisional	0.36	28%	33	072% 121% 25% 31% 4+0%
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID	Inter	0.43	71provisional	0.34	28%	51	072% 123% 24% 3+1%
Federico DimarcoDEF	Inter	0.38	72provisional	0.31	26%	68	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Michel Ndary AdopoMID	Cagliari	0.33	75provisional	0.27	23%	73	077% 120% 23% 3+0%
Alessandro DeiolaMID	Cagliari	0.39	59provisional	0.26	22%	49	078% 118% 23% 3+0%
Nicolò BarellaMID	Inter	0.30	75provisional	0.25	22%	67	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Luis Henrique Tomaz de LimaMID	Inter	0.40	54provisional	0.24	20%	30	080% 117% 23% 3+0%
Piotr ZielińskiMID	Inter	0.43	50provisional	0.24	20%	60	080% 117% 23% 3+0%
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID	Inter	0.31	64provisional	0.22	19%	62	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Davide FrattesiMID	Inter	0.54	34provisional	0.20	17%	50	083% 114% 22% 3+0%
Leonardo PavolettiFWD	Cagliari	1.05	17provisional	0.20	17%	39	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Petar SučićMID	Inter	0.33	53provisional	0.19	17%	34	083% 115% 22% 3+0%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won41 playersHighest: Lautaro Javier Martínez, 1.61 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Lautaro Javier Martínez
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
1.61
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.86
025%
130%
222%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Sebastiano Esposito
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.60
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.92
024%
130%
222%
313%
46%
53%
6+2%
Zito André Sebastiao Luvumbo
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
1.53
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
2.70
031%
128%
218%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Marcus Thuram
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.48
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.93
029%
130%
221%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Gennaro Borrelli
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.25
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
2.39
038%
129%
216%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Francesco Pio Esposito
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
45
Proj.
1.19
O 1.5
31%
Model /90
2.40
040%
129%
216%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%
Ange-Yoan Bonny
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
1.12
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
2.96
042%
130%
215%
37%
44%
52%
6+1%
Davide Frattesi
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
2.81
046%
129%
213%
36%
43%
52%
6+2%
Nicolò Barella
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
1.02
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.23
040%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Yerry Fernando Mina González
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.08
039%
134%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Semih Kılıçsoy
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
44
Proj.
0.97
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.96
048%
127%
214%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.93
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.17
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Mattia Felici
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
42
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.99
046%
130%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.28
045%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Michel Ndary Adopo
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.10
044%
133%
215%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Kristjan Asllani
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
46
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.67
052%
126%
212%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Petar Sučić
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.82
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.40
051%
128%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Piotr Zieliński
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.45
051%
128%
212%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Alessandro Deiola
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.22
050%
130%
213%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Matteo Prati
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
1.23
050%
131%
213%
35%
41%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Lautaro Javier MartínezFWD	Inter	1.86	78provisional	1.61	45%	61	025% 130% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Sebastiano EspositoFWD	Cagliari	1.92	75provisional	1.60	45%	36	024% 130% 222% 313% 46% 53% 6+2%
Zito André Sebastiao LuvumboFWD	Cagliari	2.70	51provisional	1.53	41%	38	031% 128% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Marcus ThuramFWD	Inter	1.93	69provisional	1.48	41%	61	029% 130% 221% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Gennaro BorrelliFWD	Cagliari	2.39	47provisional	1.25	33%	27	038% 129% 216% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Francesco Pio EspositoFWD	Inter	2.40	45provisional	1.19	31%	35	040% 129% 216% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%
Ange-Yoan BonnyFWD	Inter	2.96	34provisional	1.12	28%	33	042% 130% 215% 37% 44% 52% 6+1%
Davide FrattesiMID	Inter	2.81	34provisional	1.07	26%	50	046% 129% 213% 36% 43% 52% 6+2%
Nicolò BarellaMID	Inter	1.23	75provisional	1.02	27%	67	040% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Yerry Fernando Mina GonzálezDEF	Cagliari	1.08	83provisional	1.00	26%	57	039% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Semih KılıçsoyFWD	Cagliari	1.96	44provisional	0.97	25%	22	048% 127% 214% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID	Inter	1.17	71provisional	0.93	24%	51	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Mattia FeliciFWD	Cagliari	1.99	42provisional	0.92	23%	32	046% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID	Inter	1.28	64provisional	0.92	24%	62	045% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Michel Ndary AdopoMID	Cagliari	1.10	75provisional	0.91	23%	73	044% 133% 215% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Kristjan AsllaniMID	Inter	1.67	46provisional	0.84	21%	22	052% 126% 212% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Petar SučićMID	Inter	1.40	53provisional	0.82	21%	34	051% 128% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Piotr ZielińskiMID	Inter	1.45	50provisional	0.81	20%	60	051% 128% 212% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Alessandro DeiolaMID	Cagliari	1.22	59provisional	0.80	20%	49	050% 130% 213% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Matteo PratiMID	Cagliari	1.23	58provisional	0.79	20%	32	050% 131% 213% 35% 41% 50% 6+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards41 playersHighest: Hakan Çalhanoğlu, 0.17 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

Hakan Çalhanoğlu
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.22
084%
114%
2+1%
Federico Dimarco
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.21
085%
114%
2+1%
Nicolò Barella
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.19
086%
113%
2+1%
Manuel Obafemi Akanji
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.16
086%
113%
2+1%
Alessandro Bastoni
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.18
086%
113%
2+1%
Adam Obert
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.19
087%
112%
2+1%
José Pedro da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
74
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.17
087%
112%
2+1%
Gabriele Zappa
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.19
087%
112%
2+1%
Benjamin Pavard
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.18
087%
112%
2+1%
Juan Martín Rodríguez Camejo
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.16
087%
112%
2+1%
Yerry Fernando Mina González
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.15
087%
112%
2+1%
Sebastiano Luperto
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.14
087%
112%
2+1%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.19
087%
112%
2+1%
Yann Aurel Bisseck
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.17
088%
111%
2+1%
Michel Ndary Adopo
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.16
088%
111%
2+1%
Sebastiano Esposito
FWD · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Petar Sučić
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.22
088%
111%
2+1%
Francesco Acerbi
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.15
088%
111%
2+1%
Matteo Darmian
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.19
089%
110%
2+1%
Alessandro Deiola
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
59
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.19
089%
110%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID	Inter	0.22	71provisional	0.17	16%	51	084% 114% 2+1%
Federico DimarcoDEF	Inter	0.21	72provisional	0.17	15%	68	085% 114% 2+1%
Nicolò BarellaMID	Inter	0.19	75provisional	0.16	14%	67	086% 113% 2+1%
Manuel Obafemi AkanjiDEF	Inter	0.16	85provisional	0.15	14%	33	086% 113% 2+1%
Alessandro BastoniDEF	Inter	0.18	77provisional	0.15	14%	61	086% 113% 2+1%
Adam ObertDEF	Cagliari	0.19	69provisional	0.14	13%	56	087% 112% 2+1%
José Pedro da Silva Figueiredo FreitasDEF	Cagliari	0.17	74provisional	0.14	13%	23	087% 112% 2+1%
Gabriele ZappaDEF	Cagliari	0.19	69provisional	0.14	13%	68	087% 112% 2+1%
Benjamin PavardDEF	Inter	0.18	70provisional	0.14	13%	24	087% 112% 2+1%
Juan Martín Rodríguez CamejoDEF	Cagliari	0.16	77provisional	0.14	13%	17	087% 112% 2+1%
Yerry Fernando Mina GonzálezDEF	Cagliari	0.15	83provisional	0.14	13%	57	087% 112% 2+1%
Sebastiano LupertoDEF	Cagliari	0.14	90provisional	0.14	13%	55	087% 112% 2+1%
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID	Inter	0.19	64provisional	0.14	13%	62	087% 112% 2+1%
Yann Aurel BisseckDEF	Inter	0.17	71provisional	0.13	12%	50	088% 111% 2+1%
Michel Ndary AdopoMID	Cagliari	0.16	75provisional	0.13	12%	73	088% 111% 2+1%
Sebastiano EspositoFWD	Cagliari	0.15	75provisional	0.13	12%	36	088% 111% 2+1%
Petar SučićMID	Inter	0.22	53provisional	0.13	12%	34	088% 111% 2+1%
Francesco AcerbiDEF	Inter	0.15	75provisional	0.12	12%	41	088% 111% 2+1%
Matteo DarmianDEF	Inter	0.19	58provisional	0.12	11%	35	089% 110% 2+1%
Alessandro DeiolaMID	Cagliari	0.19	59provisional	0.12	11%	49	089% 110% 2+1%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves41 playersHighest: Josep Martínez Riera, 2.82 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Josep Martínez Riera
GK · Inter
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.82
O 2.5
51%
Model /90
2.82
08%
118%
223%
320%
414%
59%
6+9%
Yann Sommer
GK · Inter
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.61
O 2.5
47%
Model /90
2.61
09%
120%
224%
320%
413%
57%
6+7%
Elia Caprile
GK · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.61
O 2.5
47%
Model /90
2.61
09%
120%
224%
320%
413%
57%
6+7%
Sebastiano Luperto
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Manuel Obafemi Akanji
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lautaro Javier Martínez
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
78
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Nicolò Barella
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Alessandro Bastoni
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Francesco Acerbi
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Federico Dimarco
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
72
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Marcus Thuram
FWD · Inter
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Yann Aurel Bisseck
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
71
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Benjamin Pavard
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
70
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Stefan de Vrij
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
65
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Yerry Fernando Mina González
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
83
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
MID · Inter
provisional
Mins
64
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Matteo Darmian
DEF · Inter
provisional
Mins
58
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Juan Martín Rodríguez Camejo
DEF · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Michel Ndary Adopo
MID · Cagliari
provisional
Mins
75
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Josep Martínez RieraGK	Inter	2.82	90provisional	2.82	51%	10	08% 118% 223% 320% 414% 59% 6+9%
Yann SommerGK	Inter	2.61	90provisional	2.61	47%	66	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%
Elia CaprileGK	Cagliari	2.61	90provisional	2.61	47%	56	09% 120% 224% 320% 413% 57% 6+7%
Sebastiano LupertoDEF	Cagliari	0.00	90provisional	0.00	—	55	0100% 1+0%
Manuel Obafemi AkanjiDEF	Inter	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	33	0100% 1+0%
Lautaro Javier MartínezFWD	Inter	0.00	78provisional	0.00	—	61	0100% 1+0%
Nicolò BarellaMID	Inter	0.00	75provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%
Alessandro BastoniDEF	Inter	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	61	0100% 1+0%
Francesco AcerbiDEF	Inter	0.00	75provisional	0.00	—	41	0100% 1+0%
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID	Inter	0.00	71provisional	0.00	—	51	0100% 1+0%
Federico DimarcoDEF	Inter	0.00	72provisional	0.00	—	68	0100% 1+0%
Marcus ThuramFWD	Inter	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	61	0100% 1+0%
Yann Aurel BisseckDEF	Inter	0.00	71provisional	0.00	—	50	0100% 1+0%
Benjamin PavardDEF	Inter	0.00	70provisional	0.00	—	24	0100% 1+0%
Stefan de VrijDEF	Inter	0.00	65provisional	0.00	—	37	0100% 1+0%
Yerry Fernando Mina GonzálezDEF	Cagliari	0.00	83provisional	0.00	—	57	0100% 1+0%
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID	Inter	0.00	64provisional	0.00	—	62	0100% 1+0%
Matteo DarmianDEF	Inter	0.00	58provisional	0.00	—	35	0100% 1+0%
Juan Martín Rodríguez CamejoDEF	Cagliari	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	17	0100% 1+0%
Michel Ndary AdopoMID	Cagliari	0.00	75provisional	0.00	—	73	0100% 1+0%

20 of 41 players shown, ranked by projection.