Serie A · Italy
JuventusvParma
Referee
Not appointed
0 matches on record
Fouls per game
—
League average
22.6
fouls per match, both teams
Value
No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.
What these numbers are
Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.
Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.
How to read each columnClose
- Model /90
- The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
- Exp. mins
- Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
- Projected
- The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
- Over 1.5, etc.
- Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
- n
- Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
- Distribution
- The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.
Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.
Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340
Model projections
Fouls48 playersHighest: Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila, 1.32 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.
- Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguilaprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.59
030%132%221%310%44%51%6+1% - Randal Kolo Muaniprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.25
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.55
033%132%220%310%44%51%6+1% - Manuel Locatelliprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.18
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.31
033%134%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Gabriel Tadeu Strefezza Rebelatoprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.45
033%135%220%38%43%51%6+0% - Nicolás Iván Gonzálezprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.57
038%130%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Weston McKennieprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.27
038%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Khéphren Thuram-Ulienprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.40
039%132%218%37%43%51%6+0% - Mariano Troiloprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.06
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.23
038%134%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Francisco Fernandes Conceiçãoprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 28%
- Model /90
- 1.55
041%131%217%37%43%51%6+0% - Kenan Yildizprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.02
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.24
039%133%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Lloyd Kellyprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.07
038%135%218%37%42%51%6+0% - Mandela Keitaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.01
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.26
039%134%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimentoprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.07
039%135%218%36%42%50%6+0% - Teun Koopmeinersprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.39
043%131%216%37%42%51%6+0% - Jonathan Davidprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.97
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.71
044%130%215%37%43%51%6+0% - Dušan Vlahovićprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.96
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.50
045%130%215%37%42%51%6+0% - Alessandro Circatiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.98
040%135%217%36%42%5+0% - Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwaprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.00
041%135%217%36%42%50%6+0% - Federico Gattiprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.30
045%130%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Lautaro Rodrigo Valentiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.93
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.03
041%135%216%36%42%5+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Tackles48 playersHighest: Manuel Locatelli, 1.66 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.
- Manuel Locatelliprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.66
- O 1.5
- 49%
- Model /90
- 1.84
020%131%225%314%46%52%6+1% - Mandela Keitaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.44
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.80
026%132%223%312%45%52%6+1% - Alessandro Circatiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 1.43
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.48
024%134%224%312%44%51%6+0% - Lautaro Rodrigo Valentiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.36
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.51
027%134%223%311%44%51%6+0% - Adrian Bernabe Garciaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.34
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 1.61
027%135%223%310%44%51%6+0% - Emanuele Valeriprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.49
028%134%223%310%44%51%6+0% - Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwaprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.40
028%134%223%310%44%51%6+0% - Mariano Troiloprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.54
029%133%222%310%44%51%6+0% - Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimentoprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.40
028%134%223%310%44%51%6+0% - Lloyd Kellyprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 1.32
- O 1.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 1.40
028%134%223%310%44%51%6+0% - Niakhate Ndiayeprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.31
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.66
028%134%222%310%44%51%6+0% - Andrea Cambiasoprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.28
- O 1.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 1.59
030%134%222%310%44%51%6+0% - Khéphren Thuram-Ulienprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.66
032%132%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Botond Baloghprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.60
031%133%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Sascha Britschgiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.24
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.55
032%133%221%310%44%51%6+0% - Enrico Del Pratoprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 1.21
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.27
031%136%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Weston McKennieprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 34%
- Model /90
- 1.42
033%133%221%39%43%51%6+0% - Hans Nicolussi Cavigliaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 1.19
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.84
034%133%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Hernani Azevedo Júniorprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 1.17
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 2.19
036%132%219%39%43%51%6+0% - Teun Koopmeinersprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.15
- O 1.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 1.65
036%132%219%39%43%51%6+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots48 playersHighest: Kenan Yildiz, 2.23 expectedshowhide
What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.
- Kenan Yildizprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 2.23
- O 1.5
- 59%
- Model /90
- 2.71
017%123%222%316%410%56%6+6% - Randal Kolo Muaniprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 2.15
- O 1.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 2.66
019%124%221%315%410%56%6+5% - Nicolás Iván Gonzálezprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 2.01
- O 1.5
- 54%
- Model /90
- 2.83
024%123%220%315%49%55%6+5% - Dušan Vlahovićprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.98
- O 1.5
- 51%
- Model /90
- 3.11
026%123%218%313%49%55%6+6% - Francisco Fernandes Conceiçãoprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.98
- O 1.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 2.94
023%125%220%314%49%55%6+5% - Jonathan Davidprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.58
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 2.78
031%127%218%311%46%53%6+3% - Jeremie Bogaprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 1.57
- O 1.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 3.12
034%127%216%39%46%54%6+4% - Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguilaprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.53
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 1.85
027%130%221%312%46%52%6+1% - Gabriel Tadeu Strefezza Rebelatoprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.48
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.84
027%132%222%312%45%52%6+1% - Khéphren Thuram-Ulienprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 1.20
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.58
036%131%219%39%44%51%6+1% - Manuel Locatelliprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.20
- O 1.5
- 33%
- Model /90
- 1.33
034%133%220%39%43%51%6+0% - Weston McKennieprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 1.14
- O 1.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 1.35
037%131%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Teun Koopmeinersprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 1.07
- O 1.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 1.54
041%131%216%38%43%51%6+1% - Lois Opendaprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 1.04
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 3.44
049%126%211%36%43%52%6+2% - Jacob Ondrejkaprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.99
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 2.11
044%131%215%37%43%51%6+1% - Adrian Bernabe Garciaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.84
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 1.02
045%134%215%35%41%5+0% - Pontus Almqvistprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 2.00
049%131%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Edon Zhegrovaprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 19
- Proj.
- 0.78
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 3.69
047%134%214%34%41%5+0% - Fabio Mirettiprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 26
- Proj.
- 0.73
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 2.50
057%126%210%34%42%51%6+1% - Adrian Benedyczakprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 30
- Proj.
- 0.71
- O 1.5
- 17%
- Model /90
- 2.09
056%127%210%34%42%51%6+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Shots on target44 playersHighest: Randal Kolo Muani, 0.94 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.
- Randal Kolo Muaniprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.94
- O 0.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 1.16
043%132%216%36%42%51%6+0% - Kenan Yildizprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 0.88
- O 0.5
- 55%
- Model /90
- 1.07
045%132%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Nicolás Iván Gonzálezprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.83
- O 0.5
- 52%
- Model /90
- 1.16
048%130%214%35%42%50%6+0% - Dušan Vlahovićprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 0.76
- O 0.5
- 47%
- Model /90
- 1.18
053%129%212%35%41%50%6+0% - Jeremie Bogaprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 0.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.31
058%126%210%34%41%50%6+0% - Francisco Fernandes Conceiçãoprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.66
- O 0.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 0.98
055%129%211%33%41%5+0% - Jonathan Davidprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 0.60
- O 0.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.06
059%127%210%33%41%5+0% - Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguilaprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.53
- O 0.5
- 39%
- Model /90
- 0.64
061%129%28%32%4+0% - Gabriel Tadeu Strefezza Rebelatoprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.50
- O 0.5
- 38%
- Model /90
- 0.63
062%129%28%32%4+0% - Jacob Ondrejkaprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.42
- O 0.5
- 32%
- Model /90
- 0.89
068%124%26%31%4+0% - Weston McKennieprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.39
- O 0.5
- 31%
- Model /90
- 0.47
069%124%26%31%4+0% - Khéphren Thuram-Ulienprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.48
071%123%25%31%4+0% - Manuel Locatelliprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.36
- O 0.5
- 29%
- Model /90
- 0.40
071%124%25%3+1% - Lois Opendaprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 27
- Proj.
- 0.34
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 1.14
075%119%25%31%40%5+0% - Edon Zhegrovaprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 19
- Proj.
- 0.32
- O 0.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.49
073%122%24%3+1% - Pontus Almqvistprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.31
- O 0.5
- 25%
- Model /90
- 0.75
075%121%24%31%4+0% - Teun Koopmeinersprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.29
- O 0.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 0.42
076%120%24%3+1% - Adrian Benedyczakprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 30
- Proj.
- 0.25
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.73
080%117%23%3+1% - Mandela Keitaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 0.29
080%117%22%3+0% - Federico Gattiprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.23
- O 0.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 0.31
081%117%22%3+0%
20 of 44 players shown, ranked by projection.
Fouls won48 playersHighest: Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila, 1.60 expectedshowhide
What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.
- Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguilaprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.60
- O 1.5
- 45%
- Model /90
- 1.93
026%129%221%312%46%53%6+2% - Gabriel Tadeu Strefezza Rebelatoprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.56
- O 1.5
- 44%
- Model /90
- 1.93
025%131%222%312%46%52%6+1% - Nicolás Iván Gonzálezprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 1.53
- O 1.5
- 43%
- Model /90
- 2.15
031%127%220%312%46%53%6+2% - Kenan Yildizprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 74
- Proj.
- 1.51
- O 1.5
- 42%
- Model /90
- 1.84
028%130%221%312%46%52%6+1% - Randal Kolo Muaniprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 1.46
- O 1.5
- 41%
- Model /90
- 1.81
030%130%220%311%45%52%6+1% - Francisco Fernandes Conceiçãoprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 1.33
- O 1.5
- 36%
- Model /90
- 1.98
034%129%218%310%45%52%6+1% - Adrian Bernabe Garciaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 1.26
- O 1.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 1.52
032%133%220%39%44%51%6+1% - Dušan Vlahovićprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 57
- Proj.
- 1.12
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.75
041%128%216%38%44%51%6+1% - Mandela Keitaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 1.10
- O 1.5
- 30%
- Model /90
- 1.37
038%133%218%38%43%51%6+0% - Manuel Locatelliprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 1.03
- O 1.5
- 27%
- Model /90
- 1.14
039%134%217%37%42%51%6+0% - Jonathan Davidprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 51
- Proj.
- 1.00
- O 1.5
- 26%
- Model /90
- 1.77
044%129%215%37%43%51%6+1% - Jeremie Bogaprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 45
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 1.89
048%128%213%36%43%51%6+1% - Jacob Ondrejkaprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 43
- Proj.
- 0.95
- O 1.5
- 24%
- Model /90
- 2.02
045%130%214%36%42%51%6+0% - Weston McKennieprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.03
046%132%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Hans Nicolussi Cavigliaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.34
047%131%214%35%42%51%6+0% - Mariano Troiloprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.87
- O 1.5
- 22%
- Model /90
- 1.01
045%133%215%35%42%50%6+0% - Pontus Almqvistprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 37
- Proj.
- 0.85
- O 1.5
- 21%
- Model /90
- 2.06
048%131%213%35%42%51%6+0% - Hernani Azevedo Júniorprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.81
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.52
049%130%213%35%42%50%6+0% - Khéphren Thuram-Ulienprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.79
- O 1.5
- 20%
- Model /90
- 1.04
049%131%213%35%41%50%6+0% - Oliver Sørensen Jensenprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.75
- O 1.5
- 19%
- Model /90
- 1.25
053%129%212%34%41%50%6+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Cards48 playersHighest: Mariano Troilo, 0.18 expectedshowhide
Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.
What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.
- Mariano Troiloprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.18
- O 0.5
- 16%
- Model /90
- 0.21
084%115%21%3+0% - Manuel Locatelliprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.17
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.19
085%114%2+1% - Lautaro Rodrigo Valentiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 15%
- Model /90
- 0.18
085%114%2+1% - Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimentoprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.16
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.16
086%113%2+1% - Sascha Britschgiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.19
086%113%2+1% - Alessandro Circatiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.15
- O 0.5
- 14%
- Model /90
- 0.15
086%113%2+1% - Enrico Del Pratoprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.15
087%112%2+1% - Niakhate Ndiayeprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.18
087%112%2+1% - Federico Gattiprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 64
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.19
087%112%2+1% - Lloyd Kellyprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.14
- O 0.5
- 13%
- Model /90
- 0.14
087%112%2+1% - Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwaprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.14
088%111%2+1% - Gabriel Tadeu Strefezza Rebelatoprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.16
088%111%2+1% - Weston McKennieprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 76
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Teun Koopmeinersprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 63
- Proj.
- 0.13
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.18
088%111%2+1% - Andrea Cambiasoprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 12%
- Model /90
- 0.15
088%111%2+1% - Botond Baloghprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.16
089%111%2+1% - Khéphren Thuram-Ulienprovisional
MID · Juventus
- Mins
- 68
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.16
089%111%2+1% - Hernani Azevedo Júniorprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 48
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.23
089%110%2+1% - Francisco Fernandes Conceiçãoprovisional
FWD · Juventus
- Mins
- 60
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.18
089%110%2+1% - Mandela Keitaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.12
- O 0.5
- 11%
- Model /90
- 0.15
089%110%2+1%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.
Saves48 playersHighest: Zion Suzuki, 3.22 expectedshowhide
What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.
- Zion Suzukiprovisional
GK · Parma
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.22
- O 2.5
- 60%
- Model /90
- 3.23
06%115%220%320%416%511%6+13% - Edoardo Corviprovisional
GK · Parma
- Mins
- 90
- Proj.
- 3.10
- O 2.5
- 57%
- Model /90
- 3.10
06%116%221%320%415%510%6+12% - Mattia Perinprovisional
GK · Juventus
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 2.20
- O 2.5
- 37%
- Model /90
- 2.28
013%125%225%318%410%55%6+4% - Michele Di Gregorioprovisional
GK · Juventus
- Mins
- 89
- Proj.
- 2.10
- O 2.5
- 35%
- Model /90
- 2.12
014%126%225%317%410%55%6+3% - Enrico Del Pratoprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 86
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Alessandro Circatiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 87
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lautaro Rodrigo Valentiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 81
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Emanuele Valeriprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 80
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Mariano Troiloprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 77
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguilaprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Adrian Bernabe Garciaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 75
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Botond Baloghprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Mandela Keitaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Gabriel Tadeu Strefezza Rebelatoprovisional
FWD · Parma
- Mins
- 73
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Niakhate Ndiayeprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 71
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Sascha Britschgiprovisional
DEF · Parma
- Mins
- 72
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Hans Nicolussi Cavigliaprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 58
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Oliver Sørensen Jensenprovisional
MID · Parma
- Mins
- 54
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Lloyd Kellyprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0% - Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimentoprovisional
DEF · Juventus
- Mins
- 85
- Proj.
- 0.00
- O 2.5
- —
- Model /90
- 0.00
0100%1+0%
20 of 48 players shown, ranked by projection.