Serie A · Italy

LeccevRoma

Monday 31 August at 17:30Stadio Comunale Via del Marelineups not announced

Referee

Not appointed

0 matches on record

Fouls per game

—

League average

22.6

fouls per match, both teams

Value

No edges published on this fixture. An edge is published only when a bookmaker's price beats the model's fair price by that market's full bar — most fixtures never produce one. The value board explains every gate a candidate has to clear.

What these numbers are

Not tips and not prices. Each row is the model's expected count for one player in this match — how many fouls, tackles or shots it thinks he records — plus the full spread of outcomes around it. Nothing here has been compared to a bookmaker.

Step 1
His own record
Every completed match in the dataset, as a rate per 90 minutes. The n column is how many matches that rests on.
Step 2
Pulled toward his position
A thin record gets pulled hard toward other players in his position, in his league — a goalkeeper toward goalkeepers, not toward the outfielders around him. How hard is fitted per market, not chosen: tackles pull about four times harder than shots on target.
Step 3
This fixture's conditions
How much of the stat the opponent concedes, what the referee's matches look like, and home or away. This is where a projection stops being a season average.
Step 4
Scaled to expected minutes
A rate becomes a count only once you say how long he plays. 60 minutes carries two-thirds the exposure of 90, and the distribution is built at that exposure.

How to read each column

Model /90: The model's rate for this match with the minutes taken back out — steps 1 to 3 already applied. It moves with the opponent and the referee, so it is not his raw career rate; the builder shows career and model rates side by side.
Exp. mins: Minutes the model expects. Confirmed means the lineup is out; provisional means it is guessing from his start rate, and is the widest of the three.
Projected: The expected count in this match, at those minutes. This is the number a line is set against.
Over 1.5, etc.: Read straight off the distribution beside it, not off how often he has beaten that line before. It answers what the model thinks, not what has happened.
n: Matches behind his own rate. Under 30 it turns amber: the projection is mostly his position group speaking, and §6.3 will not publish an edge on it.
Distribution: The whole spread, not just the average. The dashed amber cut is the line; jade bars beat it. An expected 1.8 fouls made of 2 every week and an expected 1.8 made of a 0 and a 5 are different bets, and this is where you see which one you have.

Counts are modelled as negative binomial rather than Poisson, because fouls and tackles are overdispersed and a Poisson would systematically underprice the tails — which is exactly where over bets live. Every market on this page cleared its calibration gate before it was allowed to produce a projection: when the model says 60%, it lands within a point or so of 60% out of sample.

Fouls v20260811-1858 · Tackles v20260811-1858 · Shots v20260811-1858 · Shots on target v20260811-1905 · Fouls won v20260811-1858 · Cards v20260811-1905 · Saves v20260812-1340

Model projections

Fouls38 playersHighest: Donyell Malen, 1.30 expectedshow

What drives it — Who referees the match. A strict official lifts every player on the pitch, which is the part most books price off a season average. See what has actually happened.

Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.30
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
1.43
029%
134%
222%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Santiago Pierotti
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.26
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
1.81
033%
132%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
K. Gaspar
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.23
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.31
032%
134%
221%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.35
033%
134%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.40
033%
133%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo Veiga
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.19
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.55
037%
131%
218%
39%
44%
51%
6+1%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
33%
Model /90
1.25
033%
135%
220%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Ylber Ramadani
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.25
038%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lassana Coulibaly
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.25
038%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.15
037%
135%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.47
038%
134%
218%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Daniele Ghilardi
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.97
042%
131%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Obite Evan N'Dicka
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.04
037%
135%
218%
37%
42%
50%
6+0%
Oumar Ngom
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.01
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.61
042%
131%
216%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lameck Banda
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.79
041%
133%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Mario Hermoso Canseco
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.00
O 1.5
27%
Model /90
1.34
041%
132%
217%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Jamil Siebert
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.99
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.10
040%
134%
217%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Nikola Štulić
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.72
044%
131%
215%
37%
42%
51%
6+0%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho Oliveira
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.96
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.01
040%
135%
217%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.28
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	1.43	82provisional	1.30	37%	18	029% 134% 222% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	1.81	63provisional	1.26	35%	73	033% 132% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
K. GasparDEF	Lecce	1.31	85provisional	1.23	34%	47	032% 134% 221% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	1.35	80provisional	1.20	33%	63	033% 134% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	1.40	77provisional	1.20	33%	67	033% 133% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo VeigaDEF	Lecce	1.55	69provisional	1.19	33%	49	037% 131% 218% 39% 44% 51% 6+1%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	1.25	85provisional	1.18	33%	73	033% 135% 220% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	1.25	76provisional	1.05	28%	66	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.25	76provisional	1.05	28%	71	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	1.15	82provisional	1.05	28%	30	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	1.47	63provisional	1.03	28%	49	038% 134% 218% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Daniele GhilardiDEF	Roma	1.97	47provisional	1.03	27%	23	042% 131% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Obite Evan N'DickaDEF	Roma	1.04	88provisional	1.03	27%	69	037% 135% 218% 37% 42% 50% 6+0%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	1.61	56provisional	1.01	27%	15	042% 131% 216% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	1.79	50provisional	1.00	26%	47	041% 133% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Mario Hermoso CansecoDEF	Roma	1.34	67provisional	1.00	27%	35	041% 132% 217% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	1.10	81provisional	0.99	26%	21	040% 134% 217% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Nikola ŠtulićFWD	Lecce	1.72	50provisional	0.96	25%	34	044% 131% 215% 37% 42% 51% 6+0%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho OliveiraDEF	Lecce	1.01	85provisional	0.96	25%	39	040% 135% 217% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Matìas Soulè MalvanoFWD	Roma	1.28	66provisional	0.94	25%	60	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Tackles38 playersHighest: Jamil Siebert, 2.04 expectedshow

What drives it — Possession share. A tackle count depends far more on how much of the match is played at your own end than on a player’s own form. See what has actually happened.

Jamil Siebert
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
2.04
O 1.5
59%
Model /90
2.27
016%
125%
225%
317%
410%
54%
6+3%
Ylber Ramadani
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.68
O 1.5
49%
Model /90
1.98
021%
130%
224%
315%
47%
52%
6+1%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
1.56
O 1.5
46%
Model /90
1.83
023%
131%
224%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Danilo Filipe Melo Veiga
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
1.51
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
1.97
028%
129%
221%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.50
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.65
023%
133%
224%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Antonino Gallo
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
1.49
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
1.60
023%
133%
224%
312%
45%
52%
6+1%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho Oliveira
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
43%
Model /90
1.56
024%
133%
224%
312%
45%
51%
6+1%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.45
O 1.5
42%
Model /90
1.63
025%
133%
224%
312%
45%
51%
6+0%
Niccolò Pisilli
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
1.41
O 1.5
38%
Model /90
2.68
034%
128%
217%
310%
46%
53%
6+2%
Lassana Coulibaly
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.40
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
1.66
027%
133%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Devyne Rensch
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
43
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.82
038%
126%
216%
310%
46%
53%
6+2%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.35
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.43
026%
135%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
K. Gaspar
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
1.33
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
1.42
028%
134%
223%
311%
44%
51%
6+0%
Balthazar Pierret
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
1.29
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.20
033%
131%
220%
310%
44%
51%
6+1%
Obite Evan N'Dicka
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
1.22
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.24
030%
136%
222%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Oumar Ngom
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
1.21
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.93
036%
130%
219%
310%
44%
51%
6+0%
Mario Hermoso Canseco
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
1.20
O 1.5
34%
Model /90
1.61
034%
132%
220%
39%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.57
035%
135%
220%
38%
42%
51%
6+0%
Medon Berisha
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.85
037%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Corrie Ndaba
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
39
Proj.
1.10
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
2.56
044%
127%
215%
38%
44%
52%
6+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	2.27	81provisional	2.04	59%	21	016% 125% 225% 317% 410% 54% 6+3%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	1.98	76provisional	1.68	49%	66	021% 130% 224% 315% 47% 52% 6+1%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	1.83	77provisional	1.56	46%	67	023% 131% 224% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Danilo Filipe Melo VeigaDEF	Lecce	1.97	69provisional	1.51	43%	49	028% 129% 221% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	1.65	82provisional	1.50	44%	30	023% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Antonino GalloDEF	Lecce	1.60	84provisional	1.49	44%	68	023% 133% 224% 312% 45% 52% 6+1%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho OliveiraDEF	Lecce	1.56	85provisional	1.47	43%	39	024% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+1%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	1.63	80provisional	1.45	42%	63	025% 133% 224% 312% 45% 51% 6+0%
Niccolò PisilliMID	Roma	2.68	47provisional	1.41	38%	53	034% 128% 217% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.66	76provisional	1.40	40%	71	027% 133% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Devyne RenschDEF	Roma	2.82	43provisional	1.35	36%	38	038% 126% 216% 310% 46% 53% 6+2%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	1.43	85provisional	1.35	39%	73	026% 135% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
K. GasparDEF	Lecce	1.42	85provisional	1.33	39%	47	028% 134% 223% 311% 44% 51% 6+0%
Balthazar PierretMID	Lecce	2.20	53provisional	1.29	36%	33	033% 131% 220% 310% 44% 51% 6+1%
Obite Evan N'DickaDEF	Roma	1.24	88provisional	1.22	34%	69	030% 136% 222% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	1.93	56provisional	1.21	34%	15	036% 130% 219% 310% 44% 51% 6+0%
Mario Hermoso CansecoDEF	Roma	1.61	67provisional	1.20	34%	35	034% 132% 220% 39% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	1.57	63provisional	1.11	30%	49	035% 135% 220% 38% 42% 51% 6+0%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	1.85	54provisional	1.10	30%	30	037% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Corrie NdabaDEF	Lecce	2.56	39provisional	1.10	29%	14	044% 127% 215% 38% 44% 52% 6+1%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots38 playersHighest: Donyell Malen, 1.99 expectedshow

What drives it — The player’s own shot rate, shrunk toward others in his position, then adjusted for how many shots the opponent concedes. See what has actually happened.

Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.99
O 1.5
56%
Model /90
2.19
017%
127%
224%
316%
49%
54%
6+3%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.56
O 1.5
44%
Model /90
2.13
028%
129%
221%
312%
46%
53%
6+2%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel Dybala
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.52
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
2.26
031%
128%
219%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Santiago Pierotti
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.45
O 1.5
40%
Model /90
2.09
030%
130%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Nikola Štulić
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.38
O 1.5
37%
Model /90
2.46
034%
129%
218%
310%
45%
52%
6+2%
Lameck Banda
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.34
O 1.5
36%
Model /90
2.39
033%
131%
219%
310%
45%
52%
6+1%
Stephan El Shaarawy
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
1.03
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
2.72
043%
130%
215%
37%
43%
51%
6+1%
Ylber Ramadani
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.98
O 1.5
26%
Model /90
1.15
041%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.95
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.11
042%
133%
216%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Medon Berisha
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.57
044%
131%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.04
043%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.92
O 1.5
24%
Model /90
1.30
043%
133%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Lassana Coulibaly
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.88
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.05
045%
133%
215%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Oumar Ngom
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.84
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.34
049%
130%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Omri Gandelman
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.73
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.27
053%
130%
212%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’dri
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
22
Proj.
0.72
O 1.5
16%
Model /90
3.00
052%
131%
211%
33%
41%
50%
6+0%
Niccolò Pisilli
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.70
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.34
056%
127%
211%
34%
41%
50%
6+0%
Balthazar Pierret
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.70
O 1.5
17%
Model /90
1.18
054%
130%
211%
34%
41%
5+0%
Mohamed Kaba
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.55
O 1.5
12%
Model /90
1.37
062%
126%
28%
32%
41%
5+0%
Neil El Aynaoui
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.54
O 1.5
12%
Model /90
1.24
061%
127%
28%
32%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	2.19	82provisional	1.99	56%	18	017% 127% 224% 316% 49% 54% 6+3%
Matìas Soulè MalvanoFWD	Roma	2.13	66provisional	1.56	44%	60	028% 129% 221% 312% 46% 53% 6+2%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel DybalaFWD	Roma	2.26	60provisional	1.52	41%	46	031% 128% 219% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	2.09	63provisional	1.45	40%	73	030% 130% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Nikola ŠtulićFWD	Lecce	2.46	50provisional	1.38	37%	34	034% 129% 218% 310% 45% 52% 6+2%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.39	50provisional	1.34	36%	47	033% 131% 219% 310% 45% 52% 6+1%
Stephan El ShaarawyFWD	Roma	2.72	34provisional	1.03	26%	51	043% 130% 215% 37% 43% 51% 6+1%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	1.15	76provisional	0.98	26%	66	041% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	1.11	77provisional	0.95	25%	67	042% 133% 216% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	1.57	54provisional	0.94	24%	30	044% 131% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	1.04	80provisional	0.92	24%	63	043% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	1.30	63provisional	0.92	24%	49	043% 133% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.05	76provisional	0.88	22%	71	045% 133% 215% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	1.34	56provisional	0.84	21%	15	049% 130% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Omri GandelmanMID	Lecce	1.27	51provisional	0.73	17%	19	053% 130% 212% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’driFWD	Lecce	3.00	22provisional	0.72	16%	38	052% 131% 211% 33% 41% 50% 6+0%
Niccolò PisilliMID	Roma	1.34	47provisional	0.70	17%	53	056% 127% 211% 34% 41% 50% 6+0%
Balthazar PierretMID	Lecce	1.18	53provisional	0.70	17%	33	054% 130% 211% 34% 41% 5+0%
Mohamed KabaMID	Lecce	1.37	36provisional	0.55	12%	30	062% 126% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%
Neil El AynaouiMID	Roma	1.24	40provisional	0.54	12%	25	061% 127% 28% 32% 41% 5+0%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Shots on target36 playersHighest: Donyell Malen, 0.83 expectedshow

What drives it — Shot volume first, conversion second — literally: the projection is the shots model thinned by the player’s own on-target rate, so a high-volume low-accuracy shooter and a sniper price differently at the same shot count. See what has actually happened.

Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.83
O 0.5
54%
Model /90
0.91
046%
134%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel Dybala
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.59
O 0.5
41%
Model /90
0.88
059%
128%
210%
33%
41%
5+0%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.55
O 0.5
40%
Model /90
0.74
060%
128%
29%
32%
4+1%
Lameck Banda
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.48
O 0.5
36%
Model /90
0.85
064%
127%
27%
32%
4+0%
Nikola Štulić
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
0.45
O 0.5
34%
Model /90
0.80
066%
125%
27%
32%
4+0%
Santiago Pierotti
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.41
O 0.5
32%
Model /90
0.59
068%
125%
26%
31%
4+0%
Stephan El Shaarawy
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
34
Proj.
0.41
O 0.5
31%
Model /90
1.07
069%
123%
26%
31%
4+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.31
O 0.5
26%
Model /90
0.44
074%
121%
24%
3+1%
Lassana Coulibaly
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
23%
Model /90
0.32
077%
119%
23%
3+0%
Oumar Ngom
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.27
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.42
078%
119%
23%
3+0%
Ylber Ramadani
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.26
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.31
078%
119%
23%
3+0%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
22%
Model /90
0.29
078%
119%
23%
3+0%
Medon Berisha
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.25
O 0.5
21%
Model /90
0.41
079%
118%
23%
3+0%
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’dri
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
22
Proj.
0.23
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.96
080%
117%
22%
3+0%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.23
O 0.5
20%
Model /90
0.27
080%
117%
22%
3+0%
Omri Gandelman
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
51
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.39
081%
117%
22%
3+0%
Niccolò Pisilli
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.21
O 0.5
18%
Model /90
0.39
082%
115%
22%
3+0%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.21
083%
116%
22%
3+0%
Robinio Vaz
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
17
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
1.02
083%
116%
22%
3+0%
Neil El Aynaoui
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.44
083%
115%
22%
3+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	0.91	82provisional	0.83	54%	18	046% 134% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel DybalaFWD	Roma	0.88	60provisional	0.59	41%	46	059% 128% 210% 33% 41% 5+0%
Matìas Soulè MalvanoFWD	Roma	0.74	66provisional	0.55	40%	60	060% 128% 29% 32% 4+1%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	0.85	50provisional	0.48	36%	47	064% 127% 27% 32% 4+0%
Nikola ŠtulićFWD	Lecce	0.80	50provisional	0.45	34%	34	066% 125% 27% 32% 4+0%
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	0.59	63provisional	0.41	32%	73	068% 125% 26% 31% 4+0%
Stephan El ShaarawyFWD	Roma	1.07	34provisional	0.41	31%	51	069% 123% 26% 31% 4+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	0.44	63provisional	0.31	26%	49	074% 121% 24% 3+1%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	0.32	76provisional	0.27	23%	71	077% 119% 23% 3+0%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	0.42	56provisional	0.27	22%	15	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	0.31	76provisional	0.26	22%	66	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	0.29	80provisional	0.25	22%	63	078% 119% 23% 3+0%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	0.41	54provisional	0.25	21%	30	079% 118% 23% 3+0%
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’driFWD	Lecce	0.96	22provisional	0.23	20%	38	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	0.27	77provisional	0.23	20%	67	080% 117% 22% 3+0%
Omri GandelmanMID	Lecce	0.39	51provisional	0.22	19%	19	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Niccolò PisilliMID	Roma	0.39	47provisional	0.21	18%	53	082% 115% 22% 3+0%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	0.21	82provisional	0.19	17%	30	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
Robinio VazFWD	Roma	1.02	17provisional	0.19	17%	12	083% 116% 22% 3+0%
Neil El AynaouiMID	Roma	0.44	40provisional	0.19	17%	25	083% 115% 22% 3+0%

20 of 36 players shown, ranked by projection.

Fouls won38 playersHighest: Donyell Malen, 1.60 expectedshow

What drives it — How much a player runs at defenders. Dribble volume drives this far more than the referee does. See what has actually happened.

Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
1.60
O 1.5
45%
Model /90
1.75
024%
131%
223%
313%
46%
52%
6+1%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
2.00
030%
129%
220%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
1.47
O 1.5
41%
Model /90
1.65
028%
131%
222%
311%
45%
52%
6+1%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel Dybala
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
1.46
O 1.5
39%
Model /90
2.17
033%
128%
218%
311%
46%
53%
6+2%
Lameck Banda
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.27
O 1.5
35%
Model /90
2.28
034%
131%
218%
39%
44%
52%
6+1%
Lassana Coulibaly
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.18
O 1.5
32%
Model /90
1.41
035%
132%
219%
39%
43%
51%
6+1%
Nikola Štulić
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
50
Proj.
1.11
O 1.5
30%
Model /90
1.98
041%
130%
216%
38%
43%
51%
6+1%
Ylber Ramadani
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
1.08
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.28
038%
133%
218%
38%
43%
51%
6+0%
Santiago Pierotti
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.07
O 1.5
29%
Model /90
1.54
040%
132%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
1.05
O 1.5
28%
Model /90
1.50
039%
133%
217%
37%
43%
51%
6+0%
Oumar Ngom
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.94
O 1.5
25%
Model /90
1.51
045%
130%
215%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.91
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.00
043%
134%
216%
36%
42%
50%
6+0%
Mohamed Kaba
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
36
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
2.24
048%
130%
213%
35%
42%
51%
6+1%
Balthazar Pierret
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
53
Proj.
0.89
O 1.5
23%
Model /90
1.51
047%
130%
214%
36%
42%
51%
6+0%
Medon Berisha
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.87
O 1.5
22%
Model /90
1.45
047%
131%
214%
35%
42%
51%
6+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo Veiga
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.83
O 1.5
21%
Model /90
1.09
049%
130%
214%
35%
42%
50%
6+0%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.95
047%
132%
214%
35%
41%
5+0%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho Oliveira
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.81
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.86
047%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.80
O 1.5
20%
Model /90
0.85
047%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%
K. Gaspar
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.79
O 1.5
19%
Model /90
0.84
048%
133%
214%
34%
41%
5+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 1.5	n	Distribution
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	1.75	82provisional	1.60	45%	18	024% 131% 223% 313% 46% 52% 6+1%
Matìas Soulè MalvanoFWD	Roma	2.00	66provisional	1.47	41%	60	030% 129% 220% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	1.65	80provisional	1.47	41%	63	028% 131% 222% 311% 45% 52% 6+1%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel DybalaFWD	Roma	2.17	60provisional	1.46	39%	46	033% 128% 218% 311% 46% 53% 6+2%
Lameck BandaFWD	Lecce	2.28	50provisional	1.27	35%	47	034% 131% 218% 39% 44% 52% 6+1%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	1.41	76provisional	1.18	32%	71	035% 132% 219% 39% 43% 51% 6+1%
Nikola ŠtulićFWD	Lecce	1.98	50provisional	1.11	30%	34	041% 130% 216% 38% 43% 51% 6+1%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	1.28	76provisional	1.08	29%	66	038% 133% 218% 38% 43% 51% 6+0%
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	1.54	63provisional	1.07	29%	73	040% 132% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	1.50	63provisional	1.05	28%	49	039% 133% 217% 37% 43% 51% 6+0%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	1.51	56provisional	0.94	25%	15	045% 130% 215% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	1.00	82provisional	0.91	23%	30	043% 134% 216% 36% 42% 50% 6+0%
Mohamed KabaMID	Lecce	2.24	36provisional	0.89	22%	30	048% 130% 213% 35% 42% 51% 6+1%
Balthazar PierretMID	Lecce	1.51	53provisional	0.89	23%	33	047% 130% 214% 36% 42% 51% 6+0%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	1.45	54provisional	0.87	22%	30	047% 131% 214% 35% 42% 51% 6+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo VeigaDEF	Lecce	1.09	69provisional	0.83	21%	49	049% 130% 214% 35% 42% 50% 6+0%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	0.95	77provisional	0.81	20%	67	047% 132% 214% 35% 41% 5+0%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho OliveiraDEF	Lecce	0.86	85provisional	0.81	20%	39	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	0.85	85provisional	0.80	20%	73	047% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%
K. GasparDEF	Lecce	0.84	85provisional	0.79	19%	47	048% 133% 214% 34% 41% 5+0%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Cards38 playersHighest: K. Gaspar, 0.22 expectedshow

Known defect — Prices ANY card — yellow or straight red — matching how books settle "to be shown a card" (D-048). The trends column alongside counts yellows only.

What drives it — Fouls first, then how readily the referee reaches for a card. Two officials averaging four cards a match can do it for opposite reasons. See what has actually happened.

K. Gaspar
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.22
O 0.5
19%
Model /90
0.23
081%
117%
22%
3+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo Veiga
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.19
O 0.5
17%
Model /90
0.25
083%
115%
22%
3+0%
Mario Hermoso Canseco
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.23
085%
114%
21%
3+0%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
16%
Model /90
0.18
084%
114%
2+1%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.17
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.18
085%
114%
2+1%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho Oliveira
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
15%
Model /90
0.17
085%
113%
2+1%
Ylber Ramadani
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.19
086%
113%
2+1%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.16
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.18
086%
113%
2+1%
Jamil Siebert
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.17
086%
113%
2+1%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.15
O 0.5
14%
Model /90
0.17
086%
113%
2+1%
Daniele Ghilardi
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.27
087%
112%
2+1%
Obite Evan N'Dicka
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.14
087%
112%
2+1%
Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.14
O 0.5
13%
Model /90
0.15
087%
112%
2+1%
Antonino Gallo
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.14
088%
112%
2+1%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.19
088%
111%
2+1%
Medon Berisha
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
54
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.22
088%
111%
2+1%
Oumar Ngom
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
56
Proj.
0.13
O 0.5
12%
Model /90
0.20
088%
111%
2+1%
Niccolò Pisilli
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
47
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.24
089%
110%
2+1%
Lassana Coulibaly
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.14
089%
111%
2+1%
Neil El Aynaoui
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
40
Proj.
0.12
O 0.5
11%
Model /90
0.27
089%
110%
2+1%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 0.5	n	Distribution
K. GasparDEF	Lecce	0.23	85provisional	0.22	19%	47	081% 117% 22% 3+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo VeigaDEF	Lecce	0.25	69provisional	0.19	17%	49	083% 115% 22% 3+0%
Mario Hermoso CansecoDEF	Roma	0.23	67provisional	0.17	15%	35	085% 114% 21% 3+0%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	0.18	85provisional	0.17	16%	73	084% 114% 2+1%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	0.18	82provisional	0.17	15%	30	085% 114% 2+1%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho OliveiraDEF	Lecce	0.17	85provisional	0.16	15%	39	085% 113% 2+1%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	0.19	76provisional	0.16	14%	66	086% 113% 2+1%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	0.18	77provisional	0.16	14%	67	086% 113% 2+1%
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	0.17	81provisional	0.15	14%	21	086% 113% 2+1%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	0.17	80provisional	0.15	14%	63	086% 113% 2+1%
Daniele GhilardiDEF	Roma	0.27	47provisional	0.14	13%	23	087% 112% 2+1%
Obite Evan N'DickaDEF	Roma	0.14	88provisional	0.14	13%	69	087% 112% 2+1%
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	0.15	82provisional	0.14	13%	18	087% 112% 2+1%
Antonino GalloDEF	Lecce	0.14	84provisional	0.13	12%	68	088% 112% 2+1%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	0.19	63provisional	0.13	12%	49	088% 111% 2+1%
Medon BerishaMID	Lecce	0.22	54provisional	0.13	12%	30	088% 111% 2+1%
Oumar NgomMID	Lecce	0.20	56provisional	0.13	12%	15	088% 111% 2+1%
Niccolò PisilliMID	Roma	0.24	47provisional	0.12	11%	53	089% 110% 2+1%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	0.14	76provisional	0.12	11%	71	089% 111% 2+1%
Neil El AynaouiMID	Roma	0.27	40provisional	0.12	11%	25	089% 110% 2+1%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.

Saves38 playersHighest: Mile Svilar, 3.00 expectedshow

What drives it — Opponent shot volume. A keeper’s own record carries so little that this market shrinks harder than any other on the board. See what has actually happened.

Mile Svilar
GK · Roma
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
3.00
O 2.5
55%
Model /90
3.00
07%
116%
221%
320%
415%
510%
6+11%
Wladimiro Falcone
GK · Lecce
provisional
Mins
90
Proj.
2.66
O 2.5
48%
Model /90
2.66
09%
120%
223%
320%
413%
58%
6+7%
Obite Evan N'Dicka
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
88
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Gianluca Mancini
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Wesley Vinicius França Lima
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Donyell Malen
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
82
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Kouadio Kone
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
80
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Bryan Cristante
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
77
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Mario Hermoso Canseco
DEF · Roma
provisional
Mins
67
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho Oliveira
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Matìas Soulè Malvano
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
66
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Antonino Gallo
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
84
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
K. Gaspar
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
85
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Jamil Siebert
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
81
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lorenzo Pellegrini
MID · Roma
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel Dybala
FWD · Roma
provisional
Mins
60
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Ylber Ramadani
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Lassana Coulibaly
MID · Lecce
provisional
Mins
76
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo Veiga
DEF · Lecce
provisional
Mins
69
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%
Santiago Pierotti
FWD · Lecce
provisional
Mins
63
Proj.
0.00
O 2.5
—
Model /90
0.00
0100%
1+0%

Player	Team	Model /90	Exp. mins	Projected	Over 2.5	n	Distribution
Mile SvilarGK	Roma	3.00	90provisional	3.00	55%	76	07% 116% 221% 320% 415% 510% 6+11%
Wladimiro FalconeGK	Lecce	2.66	90provisional	2.66	48%	76	09% 120% 223% 320% 413% 58% 6+7%
Obite Evan N'DickaDEF	Roma	0.00	88provisional	0.00	—	69	0100% 1+0%
Gianluca ManciniDEF	Roma	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	73	0100% 1+0%
Wesley Vinicius França LimaDEF	Roma	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	30	0100% 1+0%
Donyell MalenFWD	Roma	0.00	82provisional	0.00	—	18	0100% 1+0%
Kouadio KoneMID	Roma	0.00	80provisional	0.00	—	63	0100% 1+0%
Bryan CristanteMID	Roma	0.00	77provisional	0.00	—	67	0100% 1+0%
Mario Hermoso CansecoDEF	Roma	0.00	67provisional	0.00	—	35	0100% 1+0%
Tiago Gabriel Coelho OliveiraDEF	Lecce	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	39	0100% 1+0%
Matìas Soulè MalvanoFWD	Roma	0.00	66provisional	0.00	—	60	0100% 1+0%
Antonino GalloDEF	Lecce	0.00	84provisional	0.00	—	68	0100% 1+0%
K. GasparDEF	Lecce	0.00	85provisional	0.00	—	47	0100% 1+0%
Jamil SiebertDEF	Lecce	0.00	81provisional	0.00	—	21	0100% 1+0%
Lorenzo PellegriniMID	Roma	0.00	63provisional	0.00	—	49	0100% 1+0%
Paulo Bruno Exequiel DybalaFWD	Roma	0.00	60provisional	0.00	—	46	0100% 1+0%
Ylber RamadaniMID	Lecce	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	66	0100% 1+0%
Lassana CoulibalyMID	Lecce	0.00	76provisional	0.00	—	71	0100% 1+0%
Danilo Filipe Melo VeigaDEF	Lecce	0.00	69provisional	0.00	—	49	0100% 1+0%
Santiago PierottiFWD	Lecce	0.00	63provisional	0.00	—	73	0100% 1+0%

20 of 38 players shown, ranked by projection.